How Poland is Preparing for War

Task & Purpose
17 May 202425:46

Summary

TLDRPoland is bolstering its military in response to regional tensions, with plans to double land forces to 300,000 personnel over five years—a move that would make its military larger than the combined forces of France and Germany. This significant increase includes a substantial investment in defense spending, aiming to reach 4% of GDP, the highest in NATO. The country is also modernizing its arsenal with new tanks, air defense systems, and artillery, while considering joining NATO's nuclear sharing program. These measures are driven by Poland's historical vulnerability to invasion and the current geopolitical climate, particularly the conflict in Ukraine and concerns over Russia's intentions.

Takeaways

  • 🌍 Poland is significantly increasing its military presence and defense spending in response to regional security concerns, aiming to double its land forces to 300,000 personnel over the next 5 years.
  • ✈️ Poland's military expansion will result in the country having a larger military force than the combined forces of France and Germany once completed.
  • 💰 The country plans to raise its defense spending to 4% of GDP, which amounts to about $133 billion over the next 5 years, the highest percentage in NATO.
  • 🚨 Poland has been one of the most invaded countries in history, which influences its current defense strategy and the urgency to modernize its military.
  • 🔄 Poland is replacing its old Soviet-era military equipment with new, modern arsenals, including a significant focus on acquiring new main battle tanks.
  • 🤝 Poland is deepening its military and economic ties with NATO allies, particularly through the purchase of military equipment like tanks from the United States and South Korea.
  • 🛡️ Air defense is a key area of focus for Poland, with significant deals in place for Patriot missile launchers from the U.S. and Naru air defense systems from the U.K.
  • 🚂 Poland's geography, characterized by flat plains with few natural barriers, necessitates a large military force to adequately defend its borders.
  • 🔥 Poland is investing in long-range strike capabilities with the acquisition of K9 Howitzers, HIMARS launchers, and CHANMO rocket artillery from South Korea.
  • 🛩️ To ensure air superiority, Poland is purchasing F-35A Lightning II Jets and additional F-16s, as well as AH-64 Apache Attack Helicopters.
  • 📈 Despite the ambitious modernization plans, challenges include securing long-term financing, a decreasing population which might affect recruitment, and the need to maintain a high level of readiness and deterrence.

Q & A

  • Why is Poland preparing for war?

    -Poland is preparing for war in the hopes of deterring it from ever happening, by sending more troops to its border with Belarus after claiming airspace violations and doubling their land forces to 300,000 personnel over the next 5 years.

  • What is the significance of Poland's military becoming larger than the French and German forces combined?

    -The significance lies in Poland's strategic location and the historical context of being invaded multiple times. A larger military force signals a strong deterrence against potential aggressors and a commitment to national security.

  • What is Poland's defense spending goal over the next 5 years?

    -Poland aims to increase their defense spending to 4% of GDP, which amounts to about $133 billion over the next 5 years, making it the highest percentage in the entire NATO alliance.

  • What challenges might Poland's defense modernization efforts face?

    -Challenges include securing long-term financing for the project, managing the logistics of a large and diverse fleet of vehicles, and maintaining a sufficient active personnel force given the demographic forecast showing a decreasing population.

  • What is Poland's strategy regarding its border with Ukraine and Belarus?

    -Poland's strategy involves creating three separate areas of operation with the newly created 18th mechanized division, the 16th mechanized division, and the resurrected First Legion division, each focusing on different border regions and defense needs.

  • What is the significance of Poland's acquisition of new main battle tanks?

    -The acquisition of 1,300 new main battle tanks is central to Poland's defense strategy, providing a significant increase in firepower and modern capabilities to deter potential adversaries and protect their extensive borders.

  • How does Poland plan to address the issue of air defense?

    -Poland plans to address air defense by acquiring 48 Patriot missile launcher stations and over 650 interceptor missiles from the United States, as well as 100 Naru air defense systems and 1,000 missiles from the United Kingdom.

  • What is the role of Poland's territorial Defense Forces?

    -The territorial Defense Forces is a 37,000-strong reserve unit with the ability to call up an additional 100,000 volunteers if needed. Its main mission is to guard against hybrid threats from Belarus in the East.

  • What are Poland's plans regarding nuclear deterrence?

    -Poland is considering entering the 'nuclear sharing' program, a component of NATO's nuclear deterrence policy that provides nuclear weapons to member states that don't possess their own, in response to Belarus receiving nuclear weapons under a similar program with Russia.

  • How does Poland's modernization plan align with its NATO membership?

    -Poland's modernization plan takes into account its membership in NATO and the need for strong European structures, bilateral, and regional cooperation with key partners, aiming to create a credible deterrent force that can also contribute to the collective defense of the alliance.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Poland's Military Expansion and Defense Strategy

The video discusses Poland's military preparations amidst geopolitical tensions. Poland is increasing its troop presence on the border with Belarus and aims to double its land forces to 300,000 personnel over five years. This move is part of a broader strategy to deter potential aggression, with the country's military expected to surpass the combined forces of France and Germany. Poland's Prime Minister, Tusk, highlights the critical nature of the current situation, likening it to the post-World War II era. The country plans to raise its defense spending to 4% of GDP, the highest in NATO, and is replacing its old military infrastructure with new systems. Challenges such as securing long-term financing and the need for unique weapon systems are also explored.

05:01

🏰 Historical Context and Poland's Geopolitical Position

The video provides a historical context for Poland's military strategy, noting its frequent invasions and the impact of its geographical position at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe. Poland's transformation post-Cold War included flipping its military bases to face eastward threats while transitioning to a democratic free-market economy. Despite periods of peace, Poland has reduced its military size and become dependent on foreign NATO allies for equipment. The Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have heightened Poland's concerns, leading to significant military and industrial shifts, including the donation of tanks to Ukraine and the consolidation of its defense industry.

10:02

🚀 Poland's Modernization and Strategic Deployment

The video outlines Poland's military modernization efforts, focusing on the procurement of new equipment and the strategic deployment of forces. Poland is creating new mechanized divisions and looking to replace its old Soviet-era equipment with modern arsenals. The country's geography, characterized by flat plains, necessitates a large military presence due to the lack of natural defensive barriers. Poland's military strategy involves deploying advanced gear to key operational areas, including the 18th Mechanized Division in the southeast and the 16th Mechanized Division in the northeast. The video also discusses the potential for nuclear sharing within NATO and Poland's considerations for such a program.

15:04

🤝 International Cooperation and Military Aid

Poland's military strategy includes international cooperation and the receipt of military aid. The country has transferred military technology from the United States and South Korea and consolidated its defense industry under one entity, PGZ. Poland has also provided significant military aid to Ukraine, including tanks, and is focusing on acquiring new main battle tanks and air defense systems. The video highlights Poland's efforts to manufacture K2 tanks domestically and its purchase of American Abrams tanks and South Korean K2 tanks to modernize its forces.

20:05

🛡️ Air Defense and Missile Systems for Poland

The video discusses Poland's acquisition of air defense systems to protect its tanks and military assets. Poland has signed a deal with the United States for Patriot missile launchers and interceptor missiles, which have a range of 150 km and can defend against ballistic missiles, aircraft, and drones. Additionally, Poland has an agreement with the United Kingdom for Naru air defense systems and missiles, ensuring the protection of ground forces. Poland is also increasing its artillery production and investing in long-range strike capabilities, including K9 Howitzers and HIMARS launchers, to enhance its military power.

25:07

✈️ Poland's Air Superiority and Modernization Challenges

The video addresses Poland's efforts to maintain air superiority through the acquisition of F-35A Lightning II jets and additional F-16 and F-50 fighters, as well as AH-64 Apache attack helicopters. Poland's military modernization is not without challenges, including demographic shifts and the need for long-term financing. Despite these challenges, Poland's government is committed to increasing military personnel to 140,000 and has strong public support for its defense initiatives. The video concludes by emphasizing Poland's strategic importance within NATO and its determination to remain a key player in European security.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Spare Parts Army Poland

The term 'Spare Parts Army Poland' is metaphorical and suggests a military force that is being prepared or reinforced, possibly with new or additional equipment. It relates to the video's theme of Poland's military buildup and modernization efforts in response to regional security concerns. The script discusses Poland's plans to increase its land forces and modernize its military capabilities, indicating a move away from a mere 'spare parts' approach to a more robust and proactive defense strategy.

💡Border Violations

Border violations refer to the incursions or breaches of a country's territorial boundaries without permission. In the context of the video, it is mentioned that two Belarusian military helicopters violated Poland's airspace, which underscores the heightened tensions and security concerns that Poland is facing from its neighbors. This incident is a key example that justifies Poland's military preparedness and the urgency of its defense modernization efforts.

💡Land Forces

Land forces are the military units that operate on land and are typically responsible for ground-based combat operations. The video emphasizes Poland's intention to double its land forces to 300,000 personnel over the next five years. This expansion is part of Poland's broader military strategy to deter potential aggression and to be prepared for a range of conflict scenarios, as suggested by the script's discussion of Poland's military modernization and the geopolitical context.

💡Defense Spending

Defense spending refers to the financial allocation by a government to its military and defense-related activities. The script highlights Poland's plan to increase its defense spending to 4% of GDP, which is about $133 billion over the next five years. This significant increase is a clear indication of Poland's commitment to enhancing its military capabilities and is a central aspect of the video's narrative on Poland's efforts to strengthen its national security.

💡NATO Alliance

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between North American and European countries. The video mentions that Poland's proposed defense spending as a percentage of GDP is the highest in the entire NATO alliance. This underscores Poland's dedication to collective defense and its role as a key player in the regional security dynamics within the NATO framework.

💡Military Modernization

Military modernization is the process of updating and upgrading a nation's military capabilities to keep pace with technological advancements and strategic needs. The video discusses Poland's ambitious plans for military modernization, including the acquisition of new weapon systems and the expansion of its armed forces. This modernization is crucial for Poland's defense strategy and is a central theme in the video's exploration of Poland's response to contemporary security challenges.

💡Geopolitical Crossroads

A geopolitical crossroads refers to a location or situation where various political, economic, and military interests intersect, often leading to heightened strategic importance. The script positions Poland as being at such a crossroads between Eastern and Western Europe, which influences its security policies and military posture. This concept is integral to understanding the video's portrayal of Poland's strategic considerations and the rationale behind its military buildup.

💡Hybrid Threats

Hybrid threats are security challenges that combine conventional and non-conventional methods, such as cyber attacks, disinformation, and other subversive tactics. The video mentions that Poland is guarding against hybrid threats from Belarus in the East, indicating the multifaceted nature of modern security challenges. This concept is relevant to the video's discussion of Poland's military strategy and the diverse capabilities it is developing to counter potential threats.

💡Tactical Level

The tactical level of military operations refers to the planning and execution of combat actions and maneuvers at a local or immediate level, as opposed to the strategic level, which encompasses broader military objectives and campaigns. The video suggests that Poland is considering tactics such as the deployment of the territorial defense forces and the positioning of mechanized divisions to respond to specific threats. This highlights the video's examination of Poland's detailed military planning in the face of regional instability.

💡Espionage

Espionage is the act of obtaining secret or confidential information without the permission of the holder of the information. The script mentions that Poland's internal security service has uncovered Russian spy rings tracking weapon shipments, which indicates the covert intelligence activities that Poland is facing. This concept is pertinent to the video's discussion of the various forms of warfare and subversion that Poland is preparing to counter.

💡Air Defense Systems

Air defense systems are military technologies designed to detect, track, and destroy incoming enemy aircraft, missiles, and drones. The video discusses Poland's acquisition of Patriot missile launchers and interceptor missiles, as well as air defense systems from the United Kingdom. These systems are critical for Poland's defense strategy, as they provide a protective umbrella over its territory and military assets, which is a key aspect of the video's narrative on Poland's military preparedness.

Highlights

Poland is preparing for war to deter potential aggression, with plans to double its land forces to 300,000 personnel over the next 5 years.

Poland's military expansion will result in a force larger than the combined French and German forces once completed.

The country aims to raise its defense spending to 4% of GDP, the highest percentage in NATO, amounting to about $133 billion over the next 5 years.

Poland is located at a geopolitical crossroads between Eastern and Western Europe, making it a critical player in regional security.

Poland has taken in 1.3 million refugees from Ukraine, highlighting its significant impact from the ongoing conflict.

Critics argue that Poland's defense strategy may be driven by political populism rather than a long-term, well-thought-out plan.

Poland's historical experience of being invaded multiple times shapes its current defense strategy and spending.

The country's military infrastructure was reoriented after the fall of Soviet communism to face potential threats from the East.

Poland is focusing on acquiring new main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to modernize its armed forces.

The Polish military is establishing the Territorial Defense Forces, a reserve unit, to guard against hybrid threats.

Poland is investing in air defense systems, including the Patriot missile system from the United States, to protect its airspace.

The country is increasing its artillery production and acquiring long-range strike capabilities to bolster its defensive and offensive potential.

Poland is procuring advanced fighter jets and attack helicopters to maintain air superiority and support ground operations.

The modernization efforts are supported by a majority of the Polish population, according to a 2022 survey.

Poland's demographic challenges, including a decreasing population, may affect its ability to double its forces.

Poland's defense modernization strategy is not just defensive; it aims to convey a credible offensive capability to deter adversaries.

The country is considering joining NATO's nuclear sharing program to enhance its deterrence against potential threats.

Poland's military modernization is part of a broader effort to ensure its continued relevance and security within NATO for centuries to come.

Transcripts

00:00

welcome back spare parts Army Poland is

00:02

now preparing for war in the hopes of

00:04

deterring it from ever happening in the

00:06

first place Poland is sending more

00:08

troops to its border with Belarus after

00:10

claiming two bellerian military

00:12

helicopters violated its airspace most

00:15

importantly I think that if Russia is

00:16

stopped in Ukraine it won't attack again

00:18

they intend to double their land forces

00:20

to a staggering 300,000 Personnel over

00:23

the next 5 years seeking to stop people

00:25

once and for all from claiming they

00:27

accidentally invaded Poland to put this

00:29

into context once once it's completed

00:30

Poland's military will be larger than

00:32

the French and German forces combined

00:34

which makes a lot of sense because a lot

00:36

is at stake for them polish prime

00:38

minister Tusk said quote we are living

00:40

in the most critical moment since the

00:42

end of World War II the next 2 years

00:44

will decide everything Poland aims to

00:47

achieve this gigantic goal by raising

00:49

their defense spending to 4% of GDP or

00:53

about $133 billion over the next 5 years

00:56

it's the highest percentage in the

00:58

entire NATO alliance it's it's like

01:00

they're throwing out their old military

01:02

and replacing it with a brand new one

01:04

but what challenges will Poland's

01:06

defense modernization efforts face along

01:08

the way what type of unique weapon

01:10

systems will they need to invest in and

01:13

which strategies will they Deploy on the

01:15

Tactical level I'm your average infan

01:17

Chris Cappy hit the like And subscribe

01:18

button and let's find out not my circus

01:21

not my monkeys it's a popular polish

01:23

saying that means it's none of my

01:24

business and I'm not responsible for

01:26

this volatile situation however when

01:28

your nation is located at the Crossroads

01:30

between eastern and western Europe when

01:32

it comes to geopolitics Poland rarely

01:35

has the luxury of it not being their

01:37

monkeys today Russian forces in Ukraine

01:39

are battling on a front line that's only

01:41

800 km away from Poland's border you

01:44

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01:46

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01:47

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01:49

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week only Poland is one of the countries

02:51

most affected by this conflict because

02:53

they've already taken in 1.3 million

02:55

refugees from Ukraine Poland's publicly

02:58

stated justification for increasing

03:00

defense spending can be found in their

03:02

2020 National defense strategy paper

03:04

approved by their president quote the

03:07

most serious threat is the neo-imperial

03:09

policy of the authorities of the Russian

03:11

Federation the military aggression

03:13

against Georgia the illegal annexation

03:15

of Crimea and the activities in eastern

03:18

Ukraine have violated the basic

03:20

principles of international law and

03:22

undermined the pillars of the European

03:24

security system if that statement by the

03:26

Polish government sounds like a bunch of

03:28

paranoid hogwash to you like my

03:30

therapist always says to me then

03:32

remember Poland has the distinct honor

03:34

of being one of the most invaded people

03:36

throughout all of history they've been

03:38

invaded or fought battles hundreds of

03:41

times on their own soil in the past

03:42

10,000 years the Mongols tonic Knights

03:45

Nazi Germany the Ottoman Empire and

03:47

Russia are just a few of the usual

03:50

suspects to invade however on the other

03:53

hand critics of Poland's National

03:55

defense strategy like Robert cha state

03:57

that he believes they could have troubl

03:59

securing long-term financing for the

04:02

project he believes the large- scale

04:03

orders are driven by political populism

04:06

aimed at gaining popularity here and now

04:09

instead of being a well thought out plan

04:11

either way so the potential economic

04:13

advantages of their valuable geographic

04:16

location has been offset by the fact

04:18

that they have so few easily defensible

04:21

natural land boundaries rivers and

04:23

mountains to prevent foreign Invasion

04:26

imagine you just bought your dream home

04:27

but it's located in the middle of a

04:29

shooting r range that's that's Poland

04:31

this is part of the reason why Poland

04:33

lived under nearly half a century of

04:36

Soviet communist rule where their

04:38

economy was tightly controlled this

04:40

meant their development was constrained

04:42

by the higher priorities of the Eastern

04:44

block that is until they finally gained

04:46

genuine Independence in 1989 but Poland

04:49

instantly faced a major problem all of

04:51

their bases in military infrastructure

04:54

was created to facilitate advancing to

04:56

the West while defending against an army

04:58

trying to move to the East according to

05:01

a publication titled Poland's threat

05:02

assessment after 1991 Poland had to do a

05:05

complete about face and flip their bases

05:08

locations to face a threat from the East

05:11

this was a lot harder than simply moving

05:13

your no trespassing signs this was done

05:15

while simultaneously pulling off major

05:18

civil reforms to transform from a

05:20

centralized Communist economy to a

05:22

democratic free market one as a result

05:25

Poland experienced an economic

05:26

Resurgence but during periods of

05:29

prolonged peace and prosperity it's easy

05:31

to let down your hair and lower your

05:33

guard a little from 1995 to 2009 the

05:36

Polish military size was reduced from

05:39

300,000 to a low of

05:41

121,000 many units were disbanded and

05:44

training centers closed their doors

05:46

according to the research paper titled

05:48

defense and Industrial policy in Poland

05:50

by Marcy turowski even as Poland's

05:53

economy grew their defense manufacturing

05:56

capabilities atrophied and received less

05:59

funding in 1999 Poland joined NATO and

06:02

in 2004 the European Union in an effort

06:05

to solidify alliances and maintain that

06:08

sovereignty but this had the KnockOn

06:11

effect of purchasing tanks from foreign

06:12

NATO allies becoming dependent on them

06:15

instead of their own industrial base

06:17

Poland's former Minister of Defense said

06:19

quote until then the threat from the

06:21

East was underestimated however we soon

06:24

realized that the policy of reducing the

06:26

Army was leading nowhere and was the

06:28

wrong approach try as Poland might to

06:31

stay out of the geopolitical circus

06:33

those monkeys kept dragging them back in

06:35

because in 2014 the Russian invasion of

06:38

Crimea seriously spooked Poland they

06:40

took two major steps in response the

06:43

first was transferring military

06:44

technology from the United States and

06:46

South Korea the second was consolidating

06:49

defense industrial base from 50 separate

06:51

polish companies down to one single

06:53

holding called the pgz then in 2022

06:57

Russian invasion of Ukraine saw Poland

06:59

taking the step of kicking their effort

07:02

to get rid of their old Soviet era

07:04

equipment into high gear 260 tanks were

07:07

gifted to Ukraine which is almost all

07:10

their Soviet era T-Series based tanks

07:12

it's like the old polish saying goes

07:14

with the hag off the carriage it's

07:16

easier on the horses that was considered

07:18

politically correct in the 1800s because

07:20

now they could focus on replacing old

07:22

stockpiles with brand new Arsenal I

07:25

think one word can sum up all of

07:26

Poland's National procurement strategy

07:29

since then

07:30

Mass it's the piece of the puzzle that

07:32

Poland feels they can bring to the table

07:34

sheer Manpower this makes sense as their

07:37

population is currently in the top 10 in

07:38

Europe at an estimated 41 million people

07:41

and a land mass of over 320,000 Square

07:44

km that's a lot of ground to cover down

07:47

on and protect because the Lynch pin of

07:49

Poland's hold defense strategy revolves

07:51

around acquiring 1,300 new main battle

07:55

tanks but what will these tanks be

07:57

protecting take a look at Po's border

08:00

it's every military planner's worst

08:02

nightmare to defend Poland shares a 530

08:05

some odd kilm border with Ukraine

08:08

According To open- Source numbers there

08:09

are eight ports of ground entry between

08:12

Poland and Ukraine and an additional

08:13

four Railways these are where much of

08:16

Western military aid transits through

08:19

it's what we would call the main

08:20

high-speed Avenues of approach that

08:23

would need to be defended it would also

08:25

become a two-way range possibly in the

08:27

future Poland decided they need a

08:29

contingency plan in case this border

08:32

ever becomes hostile occupied by Russia

08:35

it gets worse because they also share a

08:37

continuous 400 km border with bellus

08:41

who's a member of the Moscow Le

08:43

collective security Treaty Organization

08:45

now there are 11 ports of Entry

08:47

connecting Poland to bellus according to

08:49

publicly available data just right there

08:51

that's a total of roughly 19 different

08:53

Avenues of approach for tanks to come

08:55

through in a worst case scenario polish

08:58

forces need to split up and disperse

09:00

throughout this territory to defend it I

09:02

can personally relate to this I also

09:04

have trouble setting up personal

09:05

boundaries however Poland has an ace up

09:07

their sleeve in 2017 their military

09:10

stood up the territorial Defense Forces

09:13

which is a 37,000 Strong Reserve unit

09:16

with the ability to call up an

09:17

additional 100,000 volunteers if needed

09:20

the territorial defense Force's main

09:22

mission is to guard against hybrid

09:23

threats from bellus in the East the

09:25

current conventional threat from bellus

09:28

is considered to be a medium threat with

09:30

only 2,000 Russian forces stationed

09:32

there and 50,000 active duty bellarus

09:35

professional soldiers we've seen how

09:37

bellus got creative in the past by

09:38

sending thousands of immigrants to

09:40

Poland's border to pressure them

09:42

politically however a larger concern

09:44

here is that in March 2024 Russian

09:48

tactical nuclear weapons were moved to

09:50

bellarus this created a pressing need

09:52

for air defense that we're going to get

09:54

into so there are four main highways to

09:56

cover but the problem is it's not like

09:59

those serve as perfect choke points when

10:01

we look closer when we zoom in on the

10:03

Tactical picture we can see how Poland's

10:06

geography plays a major factor their

10:09

land is made up largely of flat Plains

10:11

and Farms that are dotted with small

10:13

forests usually a few colmers wide this

10:16

makes the borders more porous less cover

10:19

and less concealment it's a major reason

10:22

why Poland requires this mass and

10:24

quantity because of the lack of natural

10:26

choke points it will all work out

10:28

somehow polish military authorities are

10:30

all too aware of this problem throughout

10:32

history and so the strategy they

10:34

developed is to deploy three polish Army

10:37

divisions equipped with The Cutting Edge

10:39

gear to three separate areas of

10:41

operation the first is the newly created

10:43

18th mechanized polish division that was

10:46

stood up in 2018 their mission is to

10:48

focus on defending the Southeastern

10:50

border the 18th mechanized division is

10:53

already pre-positioned in the Southeast

10:55

instead of having to spend valuable

10:57

weeks to deploy here's the map of some

10:59

of Poland's major rail networks that can

11:01

help facilitate Logistics the railway

11:04

through the city of zesu just 60 km from

11:07

the border has become a major hub for

11:10

Western Aid shipments into Ukraine and

11:12

the target of Russian spiry rings this

11:15

is why it's important to have stockpiles

11:17

and infrastructure here ahead of time as

11:19

a contingency plan next up is the 16th

11:22

mechanized division that's focused on

11:24

protecting the northeastern borders

11:26

especially here this is called the

11:28

infamous s Gap the thigh gap of Europe

11:31

the salki Gap is a narrow strip of land

11:33

about 65 km wide between bellarus and

11:36

the Russian exclave of kenrad this is

11:39

where Poland shares a direct border with

11:41

Russia the border is about 230 km long

11:44

with four major roadways connecting it

11:47

to Poland before the war in Ukraine

11:49

estimates placed a sizable 30,000

11:51

Russian troops and hundreds of tank

11:53

station there but they have since been

11:56

diverted to the front lines in Ukraine

11:58

this has left only only 6,000 Russian

12:00

troops behind assuming no changes some

12:03

Polish tanks will be tied up in the

12:05

north by the small force from the

12:07

operational perspective though control

12:09

over this Corridor was essential for

12:12

NATO to reinforce their Baltic allies in

12:15

case of a conflict prior to Russia's

12:17

invasion of Ukraine this location looked

12:19

like it was a major vulnerability to

12:21

Nato planners because of the potential

12:24

for Russian forces to skirt across to

12:26

bellarus linking up and effectively

12:28

cutting off the Baltic States from

12:30

resupply however that calculation has

12:32

now changed according to this article by

12:35

tenant of Euro News this threat is

12:37

greatly reduced today thanks to Sweden

12:40

and Finland joining NATO tenet says

12:42

quote to put it simply with NATO members

12:45

bordering most of the Baltic Sea Russia

12:47

would be unable to prevent Western

12:49

reinforcements arriving by sea if that

12:51

sounds like a lot to you I challenge

12:53

that assumption sir because Poland

12:55

resurrected the first Legion division

12:57

from 1944 to also deploy here it's the

13:00

first one that's formed from scratch

13:01

entirely starting in 2022 and will

13:03

consist entirely of state-of-the-art

13:05

equipment the first Legion division will

13:07

be the largest of them all and its goal

13:09

is to saturate or fill in the gap

13:11

between the 18th and 16th divisions so

13:14

that's why maintaining large tank

13:15

formations is strategically important

13:17

for Poland the unique requirement of

13:19

their geography makes it necessary but

13:21

the vast majority of Poland's new tanks

13:24

will come from the 820 South Korean k2s

13:27

that they plan on producing domestic

13:29

ically in their own country make haste

13:32

slowly part of the problem with any

13:34

defense procurement is just how long it

13:36

takes we have to adjust our frame of

13:38

mind from thinking about threats that we

13:40

Face Tomorrow to thinking about threats

13:42

we might face 10 15 years from now much

13:45

of Poland's new equipment will not be

13:48

fully acquired until 2030 or 2035 even

13:51

according to their own estimates the

13:53

world could look very differently by

13:55

then for all we know Taylor Swift might

13:57

not even be the top female artist

13:58

anymore more it'll take Poland until

14:01

2026 just to start manufacturing those

14:03

K2 tanks Warsaw has already ordered 366

14:07

American Abrams tanks for over $4

14:09

billion that amount will include

14:11

everything though from spare parts and

14:13

training to brand new repair

14:14

headquarters take a look at the Polish

14:16

city of pnan in the western part of the

14:18

country safely tuck away it's where the

14:21

Abrams training academy and new Abrams

14:23

repair plant is located this is actually

14:25

a lesson learned by Poland in the early

14:27

2000s when they first purchased foreign

14:29

tanks from Germany and they quickly

14:31

found themselves with no way to fix them

14:33

this Center will also fix damage Abrams

14:36

Tanks coming out of Ukraine so far five

14:38

of them have been knocked out there

14:40

Poland will receive 250 of the newest M1

14:43

A2 sep version three which will include

14:46

all those modern bells and whistles like

14:48

thicker armor on the top to counter the

14:50

newest thread of kamakazi drones this is

14:53

why in the meantime they've ordered

14:55

rapid deployment of 180 South Korean k2s

14:58

as a stop top Gap so far they've

15:00

received 46 k2s and 69 of the Abrams

15:03

ordered but in case things get spicy

15:06

quicker than that there's another idea

15:08

the Polish government has been kicking

15:09

around since 2023 they might request

15:12

stationing NATO nuclear weapons on their

15:15

own soil on April 30th 2024 very

15:18

recently Poland's president Duda met

15:20

with prime minister Tusk to talk about

15:23

whether or not they should try to enter

15:25

something called the nuclear sharing

15:27

program what's that it's a component of

15:29

NATO's nuclear deterrence policy that

15:31

provides nuclear weapons to member

15:33

states that don't possess their own it's

15:35

like lending your friend a book to build

15:37

trust with them it's it's exactly like

15:39

that analogy just since 2009 alone

15:42

Belgium Germany Italy the Netherlands

15:45

and turkey have all played host to

15:47

nuclear weapons that were given to them

15:49

through this sharing program sharing is

15:51

caring even when it comes to nukes this

15:53

is now being openly debated in Poland

15:56

Poland believes it's necessary in

15:58

response to bellus receiving nuclear

16:01

weapons under a similar program with

16:03

Russia check out our new merch if you

16:05

have a chance it's not shoot to kill

16:07

it's shoot to chill another challenge

16:09

Poland's Armed Forces face is how to

16:11

move thousands of infantry around such a

16:13

large country this requires infantry

16:15

fighting Vehicles that's why Poland

16:17

ordered 1,400 domestically built ifv

16:21

boruk vehicles to replace their 1,200

16:24

Soviet era bmps however only five

16:27

prototypes have been built so far and

16:29

their delivery isn't planned to be

16:31

finished until 2035 which leaves them

16:34

stuck with those bmps in the meantime

16:36

and this adds to the long list of

16:38

different types of vehicles that they

16:39

need to maintain which leads to one of

16:41

the next raised concerns about having so

16:44

many different types of vehicles is

16:45

going to increase the cost of logistics

16:48

but considering how large The Fleets of

16:50

all these vehicles are the economies of

16:52

scale should help mitigate that problem

16:54

whereas some other countries in Europe

16:56

have been criticized for not investing

16:58

in quantity we see that is really not

17:00

something you could say to Poland with a

17:01

straight face each country in NATO is

17:03

focused on acquiring different types of

17:05

weapon systems some are focusing on

17:08

quantity While others focus on nuclear

17:10

weapons Poland actually talks about this

17:12

being one of their four pillars of

17:14

Defense saying quote Poland takes into

17:16

account the context of their membership

17:18

in NATO the basic Factor shaping

17:20

Poland's security is its strong

17:22

embedding in the European structures in

17:24

the development of bilateral and

17:26

Regional cooperation with key partners

17:29

every stick has two ends the question of

17:32

whether or not Russia would invade

17:34

Poland again in the future is well

17:36

beyond my capabilities of answering as

17:38

as just a lower level ground I can look

17:41

at the statements made by both parties

17:42

on the one hand Putin has addressed this

17:45

question and said publicly that he has

17:47

no intention of invading Poland pinky

17:49

promise but Russia also stated they had

17:51

no plans of invading Ukraine in January

17:54

2022 and so on the other hand Poland's

17:57

president dud said quote We're a nation

18:00

who was enslaved by Russia several times

18:03

if Russia wins the war in Ukraine he

18:05

will attack one more time he will attack

18:08

other states so the Polish government

18:10

claims they view the threat from Russia

18:12

seriously there are two sides to every

18:15

story but something I don't think is

18:17

discussed often enough is how there are

18:19

many forms of warfare that can occur

18:21

short of that threshold of a full-blown

18:23

invasion of Poland our task and purpose

18:25

Discord Channel clu me in on the news

18:27

that this Espionage was already

18:29

happening Poland's internal security

18:31

service has uncovered multiple Russian

18:33

spy rings that were able to successfully

18:36

track weapons shipments from Poland into

18:39

Ukraine and then strike them with long

18:41

range fires they highlighted this in

18:43

their very own 20120 National defense

18:45

strategy document that is many pages

18:47

that I read so you don't have to it says

18:49

quote the Russian Federation carries out

18:52

activities below the threshold of War of

18:55

hybrid nature using non-military means

18:57

including cyber attacks dis information

18:59

to destabilize the structures of Western

19:01

States and societies to create divisions

19:04

among allies if Russian forces were to

19:06

Annex all of Ukraine there would

19:08

undoubtedly be gry Zone Warfare

19:10

including flying enemy fighter jets

19:13

through their airspace infiltrations

19:15

possibly fomenting Revolutions in their

19:17

territory or large-scale military

19:20

exercises on their borders there could

19:22

be drone and missile strikes within

19:24

their borders that still would not

19:26

amount to a full-scale Invasion these

19:28

are some of the same motivations the

19:30

Russian government has given for why

19:32

they don't want Ukraine to be friendly

19:34

to Europe in the west how you make your

19:36

bed will determine how well you sleep

19:38

Simply Having a massive amount of Tanks

19:40

isn't enough for Poland we've learned

19:42

tanks are vulnerable without air defense

19:44

systems this is why Poland struck a deal

19:46

worth up to $15 billion with the United

19:48

States for 48 of their Patriot missile

19:51

launcher stations and more than 650

19:53

Interceptor missiles to go with it the

19:55

Patriot has about 150 km max range and

19:58

can intercept ballistic missiles

19:59

aircraft and drones in theory this could

20:02

be enough coverage to protect Poland's

20:04

entire border their major cities and

20:06

their defense industrial base in some

20:08

cases a separate $5 billion agreement

20:11

with the United Kingdom for 100 of their

20:13

Naru air defense systems and 1,000

20:15

missiles is meant to ensure the

20:17

protection of their Ground Forces all of

20:19

these air defense systems are planned to

20:21

be synchronized under their integrated

20:23

battle command system Europe is

20:25

attempting to build an integrated

20:26

missile defense Shield like the iron

20:28

Dome and Poland is going to be at the

20:30

center of it Poland's former Minister of

20:33

Defense said quote we are drawing

20:35

conclusions from the war that is taking

20:37

place in Ukraine we know the methods

20:39

used by the Russians and we have no

20:41

doubt that anti-aircraft and

20:43

anti-missile defenses are an important

20:45

element of security another necessary

20:47

protection for tanks and air defense

20:49

assets to maneuver freely is artillery

20:52

protection $450 million will go to

20:55

ramping up Poland's artillery shell

20:57

production currently they produce about

20:59

30,000 artillery shells per year which

21:02

is about as much as the US produces in

21:04

one month their goal according to

21:06

defense 24 is to reach 200,000 per year

21:09

by 2029 the reason for this increase

21:12

isn't just to send them to Ukraine

21:13

they'll be needed to feed their

21:15

increased artillery Hardware Poland's

21:17

investing $2 billion on

21:19

672 South Korean K9 Howers many of which

21:23

will be produced domestically and 500 of

21:26

the americanmade high Mars launchers and

21:28

200 188 of the South Korean chanmo

21:31

rocket artillery these are longrange

21:33

strike capability out to 300 km and they

21:36

plan to acquire over 1,000 Munitions for

21:38

them at a combined cost of 12 billion

21:41

bucks I think this quote from Poland's

21:44

Former Defense Minister helps us

21:46

understand their perspective let us

21:48

assume the rulers of the Kremlin decided

21:50

to rebuild the Russian Empire our goal

21:52

is to create a situation in which a

21:54

strong Polish Army will actually deter

21:56

the aggressor and one of the most

21:58

important components of this Army will

22:00

be rocket artillery end quote according

22:03

to this line of thinking Poland has to

22:05

assume the worst case scenario there's a

22:07

concept from sunu that I think helps

22:09

explain this line of thinking it's

22:11

called being on death ground death

22:13

ground is when your opponent puts your

22:15

back up against the wall and forces you

22:18

to prepare for a fight however we've

22:20

learned that your artillery air defenses

22:22

and tanks they're all sitting ducks if

22:24

you can't maintain some level of air

22:26

superiority or at least contested

22:28

airspace

22:29

this is why Poland's acquiring 32 f-35a

22:32

lightning 2 Jets from the United States

22:35

as part of a 4.6 billion deal this will

22:38

complement their 48 f-16s and about 28

22:41

make 29s they're also purchasing 48 F50

22:44

Fighters for a total of over 150 fighter

22:47

aircraft and an additional $12 billion

22:50

will be spent on acquiring 96 of the

22:52

ah64 Apache Attack Helicopters Poland's

22:56

modernization will not be without its

22:58

Fair share of challenges though

22:59

according to Robert Cha's defense policy

23:01

paper Poland's demographic forecast show

23:04

a decreasing population which could make

23:06

doubling their forces tough to pull off

23:09

currently the Polish Army has roughly

23:11

70,000 active Personnel according to

23:13

open source numbers which means reaching

23:15

140,000 could be difficult but it's the

23:17

goal they're striving for there is no

23:19

loss without some gain opinion Research

23:23

Center survey from 2022 says that 79% of

23:26

polls believe that the war in Ukraine

23:28

threatens the security of the country is

23:30

it okay to say polls that sounds can you

23:32

say Jew pole they're okay both I think I

23:35

can't speak for the people but these

23:36

changes appear to be widely popular in

23:39

Poland beyond the clear National

23:40

Security factors that we covered it

23:42

might have to do with the fact that

23:44

Poland's government also increased

23:46

social program spending at the same time

23:49

increasing pay for teachers by 30% for

23:51

example which means you're getting both

23:53

guns and butter for dinner tonight

23:55

unlike in France where pensions may be

23:57

cut Poland's is actually increasing

23:59

pension payments however one of the main

24:02

challenges for this modernization will

24:04

be if Poland is able to secure long-term

24:06

financing for the project the budget

24:09

deficit in 2024 will be 5% of GDP Which

24:12

is higher than expected under the

24:14

agreements a second loan from South

24:16

Korean financial institutions will need

24:18

to be provided to Poland which has made

24:20

South Korean lawmakers have to increase

24:22

their lending limits to stay on schedule

24:25

I think when you look at the new

24:26

equipment Poland is acquiring it tells

24:27

us an interesting story could be

24:29

designed to be more than just a defense

24:31

personally I believe from Poland's point

24:33

of view they need adversaries to look at

24:35

their army and view them as having the

24:37

capability to go on the offensive if

24:40

they were pressured into it it's not

24:41

enough to just have a defensive

24:43

capability to deter War you also need

24:45

your enemy to believe that your ability

24:46

to take the fight to them to make them

24:49

think twice about messing with you it's

24:51

true Russian forces have lost 2,000

24:53

tanks in their War but they remain a

24:55

credible threat because they thrown

24:57

themselves into a war time economy their

24:59

forces are reported to be 15% bigger

25:01

than in 2022 they've spent 40% of their

25:04

entire Budget on Military defense last

25:06

year Poland wouldn't be going alone

25:08

though they'd be reinforced by us and

25:10

NATO allied forces in the event of a

25:12

conflict Poland's Armed Forces remains

25:14

one of the most important factors on

25:15

NATO's Eastern flank alliances come and

25:18

go friendships change but something that

25:20

has preserved since the 10th century is

25:22

Poland and this new defense

25:24

modernization effort shows they plan to

25:26

be around for many centuries to come if

25:28

you want to learn and talk with a

25:30

community of people interested in

25:31

subjects like this join me on the task

25:34

and purpose Discord Channel I'll be in

25:36

there all day Friday and be sure to

25:38

check out the war Zone's new YouTube

25:39

channel they just launched the series

25:41

and their first video is about the

25:43

f-16n the Navy's F16

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العلامات ذات الصلة
Poland MilitaryDefense StrategyNATO AllianceRussian ThreatBorder SecurityMilitary SpendingAir DefenseTanks ModernizationHybrid WarfareGeopolitical TensionsEuropean Security
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