Watch for Higher Lows in These Three Tech Stocks

StockCharts TV
13 May 202433:46

TLDRIn this episode of the final bar, host Dave Keller discusses the market action focusing on technical analysis, following a week of choppy trading for the S&P 500 and a slight push higher for the NASDAQ. He highlights the technology sector's return to the leaderboard, edging out real estate and utilities. The conversation includes a poll about Bitcoin's value by May 31st, 2024, and an analysis of Bitcoin's current trading around $63,000. Dave also covers market averages, with the NASDAQ Composite up and the Dow down, reflecting a general trend favoring growth stocks. The VIX index is noted for its slight increase, indicating higher uncertainty. Sector performance is reviewed, with utilities and technology outperforming. The Magnificent Seven stocks, including Tesla and Apple, are discussed, along with their recent price movements. The S&P 500's daily chart is analyzed, noting the potential for a new all-time high but with caution regarding momentum divergence. The show concludes with a focus on relative strength in the market, particularly in defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, which may suggest a shift in investor behavior towards more caution.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The NASDAQ is showing slight gains, with technology stocks leading the leaderboard, indicating a continued interest in tech sector investments.
  • 🤔 In a recent poll, 34% of respondents predicted that Bitcoin's value would be between 60,000 and 70,000 by the end of May 2024, reflecting market uncertainty.
  • 📊 Bitcoin's price is currently around 63,000, finding support at the 60,000 level which is a significant psychological and Fibonacci support level.
  • 📉 The VIX index increased, indicating higher volatility and uncertainty in the market, despite the S&P 500 showing little change.
  • 📉 Gold prices dipped, with the GLD fund down over 1%, contrasting with the overall performance of other commodities.
  • 🚀 The technology sector within the S&P sectors performed well, with the XLK up about half a percent, showing resilience in tech investments.
  • 🔺 Apple and Tesla, despite previous struggles, showed positive growth, up about 1-2%, indicating a potential rebound for these tech giants.
  • 📊 The S&P 500 is yet to reach new all-time highs, with a close around 5221, just below the all-time high of 5250.
  • ⚠️ Amazon's chart is showing a bearish momentum divergence, which might suggest that the current uptrend could be nearing an end.
  • 🌟 Madna, a pharmaceutical stock, broke above resistance around 115, transforming it into support, signaling a potential continued upward movement.
  • 📲 AppLovin has shown a strong performance with a pattern of increasing earnings and price breakouts, making it an outperformer from February to May 2024.

Q & A

  • What was the main topic of discussion for the final bar on Monday, May 13, 2024?

    -The main topic of discussion was the market recap and breakdown of the day's price action, focusing on the relative strength characteristics of the technology and utilities sectors, which have been some of the stronger sectors year to date.

  • What was the general performance of the NASDAQ on the day of the discussion?

    -The NASDAQ was pushing slightly higher, with technology stocks leading the leaderboard, edging out real estate and utilities.

  • What was the poll question posed to the viewers regarding Bitcoin?

    -The poll question asked where Bitcoin would be on May 31st, 2024, with options for over 70,000, between 60 and 70k, and below 50,000.

  • What is the significance of the 60,000 level for Bitcoin?

    -The 60,000 level for Bitcoin is significant because it has been a consistent support level over the last couple of months and is also the first Fibonacci support level.

  • What is the general outlook for the S&P 500 as discussed in the script?

    -The S&P 500 had a choppy and noisy day with not much change, finishing around 5221, which is close to the all-time high of 5250. The VIX moved up, indicating elevated uncertainty or fear in the market.

  • What is the general performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as compared to the NASDAQ?

    -The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2%, indicating a performance that is more value-heavy, while the NASDAQ Composite was up a third of a percent, showing better performance in growth stocks.

  • What are the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks mentioned in the script?

    -The 'Magnificent Seven' refers to leading growth names in the stock market, with Tesla and Apple specifically mentioned as having a decent day during the period discussed in the script.

  • What is the potential implication of Amazon showing a bearish momentum divergence?

    -A bearish momentum divergence on Amazon's chart suggests that despite higher highs in price, the momentum is decreasing, which can often signal that the current uptrend may be nearing an end.

  • Why might an institutional investor move towards defensive sectors like utilities or consumer staples?

    -Institutional investors might move towards defensive sectors when they are concerned about growth from current levels or the performance of the benchmark index. These sectors tend to be less volatile and offer a decent dividend, providing stability and income in times of market uncertainty.

  • What is the significance of the relative rotation graph (RRG) in analyzing market trends?

    -The relative rotation graph (RRG) is a tool used to analyze the relative strength and momentum of different sectors or groups of stocks. It helps identify which sectors are leading, improving, lagging, or deteriorating, providing insights into potential shifts in market leadership.

  • What is the general advice given for investors regarding the stock market at the end of the script?

    -The general advice given is for investors to continue monitoring the market, pay attention to breadth indicators, and not be afraid to look outside their comfort zone for investment opportunities, such as in sectors they might typically overlook, like utilities, especially if the relative strength indicates potential for growth.

Outlines

00:00

🎙️ Introduction and Market Overview

Dave Keller, the chief Market strategist at stockcharts.com, welcomes viewers to the final bar on Monday, May 13, 2024. He discusses the day's market action, noting a quiet day for the S&P 500 and a slight rise for the NASDAQ. Technology leads the sectors, with utilities and real estate also performing well. Dave mentions his recent experience at the Money Show and teases an upcoming segment on relative strength characteristics, focusing on utilities and technology. A poll question about Bitcoin's future value is addressed, and the current state of Bitcoin is analyzed, noting its support level at 60,000. Market averages are reviewed, with mixed results and the VIX indicating some uncertainty.

05:01

📈 Analyzing Market Performance and Individual Sectors

The script delves into the performance of various sectors, highlighting the strength of technology and the relative weakness of industrials and financials. Dave discusses the interest rate environment and its impact on different sectors, particularly technology. He also touches on the performance of cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin's price just over 63,000. A detailed analysis of the S&P daily chart is provided, comparing current market conditions to previous trends. The potential for a bearish momentum divergence is considered if new all-time highs are reached on weaker momentum.

10:02

📊 Breadth Indicators and Gold Market Insights

Dave examines the advanced decline lines for different cap tiers on the New York Stock Exchange, noting that they have reached new highs, which is a bullish signal. He contrasts this with the S&P, which has not yet reached new highs. Gold's performance is discussed in detail, with a focus on its technical breakout and the potential support level at 2,300. The GLD fund's performance is also analyzed, and the overall momentum for gold is seen as strong despite a recent pullback.

15:04

💊 Healthcare Sector and Individual Stock Analysis

The script shifts to the healthcare sector, with a focus on the pharmaceutical stock Madna. Dave discusses the concept of resistance becoming support and the importance of breaking above key resistance levels. He outlines various patterns that could be inferred from Madna's chart, such as an ascending triangle or a head and shoulders bottom. The breakout above resistance at 115 is highlighted as a positive signal, with further upside potential if the stock can maintain its position above this level.

20:05

📉 Concerns Over Momentum Divergence and Sector Performance

Dave expresses concerns about momentum divergence, particularly with stocks like Amazon, which could indicate that the current uptrend may be nearing an end. He discusses the importance of big names like Apple, Amazon, and Meta in pushing the S&P and NASDAQ to new highs. Charts of Apple, Amazon, and other stocks are reviewed, noting the need for these stocks to show significant gains to confirm a continued uptrend. The script also touches on breath conditions and how they are improving, with many stocks in the S&P making new highs.

25:06

✈️ Airline Stocks and Market Recap

The script concludes with a brief analysis of airline stocks, such as American Airlines, and their short-term moves. Dave notes that while these moves are constructive, there is still significant overhead resistance to consider. He emphasizes the importance of reviewing market breadth conditions regularly and provides announcements about upcoming webcasts and the invitation for audience questions. The 'It's All Relative' segment is introduced, focusing on relative strength and performance, with a particular emphasis on defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples.

30:08

📈 Relative Rotation Graph and Sector Performance

Dave discusses the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) and its implications for sector performance. He notes the strength of defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, which have rotated into the improving quadrant. The script highlights the unusual rotation of the utilities sector and its recent performance. Dave also reviews the relative strength of different sector groups, including growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary, and value sectors like industrials and financials. The performance of specific utility stocks, such as CEG and VST, is analyzed, noting their significant gains and the potential red flags they present.

🚀 Technology Sector and AppLovin's Impressive Growth

The final paragraph focuses on the technology sector, specifically the company AppLovin, which has shown remarkable growth. Dave describes the stock's pattern of breakouts and gaps higher on earnings, suggesting that the stock tends to show strength following these events. He emphasizes the importance of relative strength in stock selection and encourages investors to consider underperforming sectors if their charts indicate potential for growth. The script concludes with a reminder to watch for more content and a prompt for viewers to like, subscribe, and engage with the channel.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Higher Lows

In technical analysis, 'higher lows' refer to a pattern where each low price point is higher than the previous lows, indicating a potential upward trend in price. This concept is crucial for predicting future market behavior, suggesting a strengthening or bullish trend. In the context of the video, the host discusses monitoring 'higher lows' in tech stocks as an indicator of continuing strength in the technology sector.

💡Tech Stocks

Tech stocks refer to shares of companies in the technology sector, which includes businesses revolving around software, hardware, electronics, and related services. These stocks are often associated with innovation and growth. The video focuses on the performance of tech stocks, particularly how they are leading the market compared to other sectors like real estate and utilities.

💡NASDAQ

The NASDAQ is a global electronic marketplace for buying and selling securities, as well as the benchmark index for U.S. technology stocks. It is often used as a barometer for the performance of stocks in the tech sector. In the transcript, the NASDAQ is mentioned as having edged higher, suggesting a day of positive performance for technology stocks.

💡Relative Strength

Relative strength in technical analysis compares the price performance of a stock or market sector against another stock, sector, or the overall market. It helps identify which are performing better in a given period. In the video, a segment titled 'It's all relative' focuses on this, comparing the performance of utilities and technology sectors.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a type of digital currency, known as cryptocurrency, that operates without the need for a central authority. The price of Bitcoin is a key interest to investors, particularly in relation to its volatility and market trends. The video discusses the audience's predictions about Bitcoin's price by the end of May 2024, using it as a segue to discuss its current performance and technical levels.

💡Fibonacci Support Level

Fibonacci support levels are technical indicators used to identify potential reversal points based on key Fibonacci ratios derived from a sequence of numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci. The levels are considered potential areas where stock prices might stabilize or rebound. The video mentions Bitcoin finding support at a Fibonacci level, indicating its importance in analyzing price movements.

💡Moving Average

A moving average is a statistical measure that smooths out price data by creating a constantly updated average price. It is frequently used in stock market analysis to determine the direction of market trends. The video discusses Bitcoin stalling at the 50-day moving average, highlighting its role as a resistance level that could impede upward price movements.

💡VIX

The VIX, or Volatility Index, measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is known as the market's 'fear gauge' because it often increases as investors become more anxious about declines in the stock market. In the video, an increase in the VIX is noted on a day with mixed market performance, suggesting growing uncertainty among investors.

💡Yield Curve

The yield curve is a graph that plots the yields of similar quality bonds against their maturities, from shortest to longest. It is a vital indicator in financial economics as it helps assess economic expectations. The video mentions slight movements in the yield curve points, implying subtle changes in market expectations regarding interest rates and economic growth.

💡Market Recap

A market recap refers to a summary of market activity, including price movements and trends over a specific period, typically at the end of a trading day. It provides investors with a snapshot of performance across various sectors and indices. In the video, the host discusses the day's market recap, noting key developments and sector performances to inform viewers of overall market conditions.

Highlights

Dave Keller, the chief Market strategist at stockcharts.com, discusses market action using technical analysis.

The NASDAQ slightly pushed higher, with technology stocks leading the gains.

Utilities and technology sectors have been relatively strong year to date.

Bitcoin's price action is discussed, with a poll revealing predictions for its value by the end of May 2024.

The importance of monitoring the 50-day moving average for Bitcoin's potential upward momentum is emphasized.

Mixed performance in the market averages, with the NASDAQ Composite up and the Dow down.

The S&P 500 shows little change, but the VIX indicates elevated uncertainty.

The yield curve and interest rate environment are analyzed, with technology sectors benefiting from lower rates.

The performance of the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, including Tesla and Apple, is reviewed.

A daily chart of the S&P 500 is examined for trends and potential market direction.

Seasonal headwinds and their potential impact on the market are discussed.

The concept of 'Sell in May' is questioned in the context of the current market conditions.

The breadth indicators for the New York Stock Exchange are highlighted as constructive.

Gold's technical analysis shows a long-term resistance level being broken, suggesting a bullish trend.

Madna, a pharmaceutical stock, is identified as a stock to watch after breaking above resistance levels.

Concerns are raised about Amazon's bearish momentum divergence, which could signal a nearing end to the current run.

American Airlines and other stocks with overhead resistance are discussed as ones to monitor closely.

The relative strength of various sectors is analyzed, with a focus on defensive sectors like utilities.

The importance of relative strength analysis in portfolio management is emphasized.

A reminder to viewers to engage with the content by liking, subscribing, and submitting questions for future mailbag shows.