When Will Russia Finally Run Out of Tanks? One Storage Base Keeps Growing
TLDRThe video discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine and its impact on Russia's military resources, particularly their tank supply. It highlights that despite the overall decline in Russia's tank storage due to losses in the war, one storage base, the 1311th, has seen a significant increase in visible tanks from 300 in 2022 to 560 in March 2024. The video suggests that this growth could be attributed to the base serving as a refurbishment depot for tanks from Eastern storage, potentially shortenening the time Russia has before running out of tanks to 2-2.5 years. The presenter also shares personal updates and invites viewers to look forward to more accurate figures from future satellite imagery.
Takeaways
- 📉 The ongoing war in Ukraine is causing Russia to lose tanks and equipment at a rate faster than they can be replaced or built.
- 📦 Despite the general decline in Russia's storage bases, the 1311th storage base outside Ying has seen an increase in the number of tanks.
- 🚀 Satellite imagery analysis over the past 2 years reveals a significant growth in visible tanks at the 1311th base, from 300 in August 2022 to 560 by March 2024.
- 🏢 The southern section of the 1311th base is the primary area of growth, with the challenge of estimating the total number of tanks due to covered garages and shelters.
- 🚧 There are 20 garages at the base, each capable of storing up to 36 tanks, indicating a potential for concealing 720 tanks from view.
- 🔍 Clues such as the lack of full arrays of tanks and track marks in winter images help estimate the number of potential tanks not visible.
- 📈 The increase of 260 tanks since 2022 could imply up to 172 more tanks hidden in the base, potentially shortening Russia's remaining tank supply timeline.
- 🛠️ The 1311th base's active maintenance section and its strategic location along the Trans Siberian Railroad suggest it may be used as a storage and refurbishment depot for tanks.
- 🌐 The base's location makes it a logical site for refurbishment work, especially considering its proximity to the Ukraine conflict zone and transportation logistics.
- 🔄 If the hidden tanks are from Eastern bases and have been previously counted, there would be no change in the overall timeline for Russia's tank supply.
- 🌬️ The speaker mentions personal and health challenges affecting video production, with hopes for better satellite imagery and more accurate counts in the future.
Q & A
What is the main issue faced by Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine?
-The main issue faced by Russia is the significant loss of tanks and military equipment at a rate faster than they can be replaced, leading to a gradual depletion of their storage reserves.
How has the 1311th storage base differed from other Russian storage bases?
-Unlike other storage bases that have experienced a decline in tank numbers, the 1311th storage base has seen a substantial increase in the number of visible tanks over time.
What was the visible tank count at the 1311th storage base in August 2022, and how has it changed since then?
-In August 2022, there were 300 good tanks visible at the 1311th storage base. This number increased to 400 by March 2023, 550 by October 2023, and 560 by March 20, 2024.
What is the challenge in determining the exact number of tanks at these storage bases?
-The challenge lies in the presence of garages and shelters that conceal tanks. Without x-ray vision or a way to see inside these structures, it is difficult to accurately estimate the number of tanks that might be stored within them.
How many potential tanks could be concealed in the 20 garages at the 1311th storage base?
-Each garage can hold up to 36 tanks (18 across and up to two deep), so the total potential number of concealed tanks is 720.
What clues help estimate the number of tanks that might be in the garages at the 1311th base?
-Clues include the lack of a full array of tanks visible outside the bottom left six garages for the past 7 years and the absence of recent track marks in winter images, which suggest no recent vehicle movement in or out of those garages.
What could the increase of 260 tanks since 2022 imply if they were always present but hidden?
-If these tanks were always present but hidden, it would mean that instead of a decline of nearly 1,200 tanks over the last year, there could have been a decline of over 1,400, potentially shortening the time Russia has left before running out of tanks from about 3 years to 2 and a half years.
What is the possible explanation for the growth of the 1311th storage base?
-The growth could be attributed to the base being used as a storage and refurbishment depot for tanks coming from Eastern storage bases, given its strategic location along the Trans-Siberian Railroad and as a transport and logistics hub.
How does the activity level of the 1311th base compare to other storage bases?
-The 1311th base has been more active than other storage bases, which supports the possibility of it being used as a hub for vehicles from Eastern bases.
What are the implications if the tanks at the 1311th base are from Eastern bases?
-If the tanks have already been counted at the Eastern bases, there would be no change in the overall time remaining for Russia's tank reserves. However, this would still indicate a significant depletion rate.
What can be expected in the near future regarding the satellite imagery analysis of these storage bases?
-Once the weather clears up and more satellite imagery becomes available, a new count will be conducted to obtain better figures and update the understanding of the situation.
Outlines
💥 Russian Tank Losses and the 1311th Storage Base
This paragraph discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia's increasing loss of tanks and military equipment. It highlights that the rate of loss is outpacing Russia's ability to produce replacements, leading to a gradual depletion of their storage depots. However, the 1311th storage base near Ying is noted for its unusual growth in tank numbers, raising questions about its potential role. The paragraph also mentions the use of satellite imagery to track the number of visible tanks at the base, which has increased from 300 in August 2022 to 560 by March 2024. The discussion includes the challenges of estimating the total number of tanks due to the presence of garages and shelters that obscure visibility. It suggests that the 1311th base might be serving as a storage and refurbishment depot for tanks from Eastern storage bases, given its strategic location and higher activity levels compared to other bases. The paragraph concludes by emphasizing the potential implications of these findings on the timeline before Russia could run out of tanks, estimating a maximum of two and a half years based on the current rate of loss and the latest counts.
😷 Personal Struggles and Health Issues in March
The speaker shares personal experiences from March, which have been challenging due to various family matters and health issues. The paragraph opens with an acknowledgment of the difficulties faced, including the impact on the speaker's ability to produce content. The speaker mentions having recently recovered from an illness that affected their voice, which the audience might notice in the recording. The paragraph concludes with an expression of gratitude to the audience for their patience and support during this trying time, despite the reduced frequency of videos.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Ukraine War
💡Russian Storage Depots
💡Tanks
💡Satellite Imagery
💡Garages and Shelters
💡Logistics
💡Maintenance Section
💡Military Strategy
💡Supply and Loss Rate
💡Refurbishment
💡Trans-Siberian Railroad
Highlights
The war in Ukraine continues to result in significant losses for Russia, particularly in terms of tanks and equipment.
Russian tank losses are occurring at a faster rate than they can be replaced, leading to a gradual depletion of their arsenal.
Despite the overall decline in Russian storage bases, one base, the 1311, has seen a surprising increase in the number of tanks.
The 1311 base's growth could have significant implications for Russia's remaining time before they run out of tanks.
Satellite imagery reveals a steady increase in the number of visible tanks at the 1311 base from 300 in August 2022 to 560 by March 2024.
The southern section of the 1311 base has seen the most significant increase in tanks, suggesting a specific focus or purpose for this area.
Garages at the base, capable of holding up to 720 tanks, present a challenge in accurately assessing the total number of tanks at the facility.
Clues such as the lack of full arrays of tanks and winter track marks help estimate the number of potential tanks not currently visible.
The increase in visible tanks since 2022 could imply up to 172 additional tanks that were previously unaccounted for.
If these unaccounted tanks were always present, Russia's decline in tank numbers would be even more severe, shortening their remaining time to just over 2 years.
The 1311 base's location along the Trans-Siberian Railroad and its role as a transport and logistics hub make it a logical site for tank refurbishment and storage.
The base's higher activity levels compared to other storage bases further support the possibility of it serving as a central hub for tanks from Eastern bases.
The presence of a maintenance section at the 1311 base, which is more active than other bases, indicates its potential role in tank maintenance and refurbishment.
The potential for the 1311 base to be a storage and refurbishment site means that the time remaining for Russia before running out of tanks may not change significantly.
Further satellite imagery analysis is expected to provide more accurate figures and insights into Russia's tank situation in the coming months.
Personal and family issues, along with illness, have impacted the frequency of video updates, but more content is anticipated as conditions improve.