An Extreme G4 Solar Storm Train, Eight Storms Race to Earth | Space Weather Spotlight 10 May 2024

Dr.Tamitha Skov
10 May 202420:49

Summary

TLDRThis week's space weather is marked by high activity with seven Earth-directed solar storms originating from regions 3664 and 3668. These storms are expected to bring vibrant auroras and potential disruptions to radio communications and GPS systems. The storms began with two back-to-back events, followed by a series of increasingly powerful flares, including an X4.5 flare that caused a radio blackout. The solar activity is monitored closely, with the potential for further storms from other regions that are rotating into view. Amateur radio operators, emergency responders, and aviators are advised to prepare for the impact on communications. The public is encouraged to reduce power consumption during the evening to assist utility companies during the storms. Aurora photographers can anticipate a spectacular display if the Earth's magnetic field is favorably oriented.

Takeaways

  • 🌌 Solar storms are expected to cause beautiful auroras visible even at mid-latitudes if the Earth's magnetic field is favorably oriented.
  • ⚠️ There is a high activity in space weather due to seven Earth-directed solar storms originating from regions 3664 and 3668 on the Sun.
  • 📡 Amateur radio operators and emergency responders should be prepared for disruptions in radio communications due to the solar storms.
  • 🌐 The solar storms may affect GPS and other satellite-based systems, particularly in the VHF range and higher frequencies.
  • 🌟 The solar flare activity from region 3664 has been particularly intense, causing significant radio blackouts and X-class flares.
  • 📈 The solar flux is expected to remain high due to continued solar activity, which may impact aviation and other technologies reliant on clear radio frequencies.
  • 🌍 Power grid resilience may be challenged during the solar storms, and voluntary reduction in power consumption at night could help utility companies manage the load.
  • 📅 The solar storms are anticipated to start impacting Earth around the 11th and could extend into the early part of the following week.
  • 🌕 The new moon phase provides a good opportunity for sky watchers to observe celestial events, including potential auroras.
  • ✈️ Aviation professionals should be aware of potential radiation storm levels and adjust flight plans accordingly to minimize risk.
  • 🔍 Space weather prediction models indicate that the storms will likely merge in their path towards Earth, although they will remain separate events causing compressed activity.

Q & A

  • How many solar storms are expected to hit Earth according to the script?

    -Seven solar storms are expected to hit Earth.

  • What kind of phenomena can these solar storms potentially cause on Earth?

    -These solar storms can potentially cause auroras and disruptions to radio communications, GPS signals, and power grids.

  • What is the significance of the solar region 3664 mentioned in the script?

    -Solar region 3664 has been particularly active, producing a series of flares and solar storms that are directed towards Earth.

  • What is the expected timeframe for the solar storms to impact Earth?

    -The solar storms are expected to start impacting Earth late on the 10th or early on the 11th, with potential effects lasting through the 12th or 13th.

  • What advice is given to amateur radio operators during this period of high solar activity?

    -Amateur radio operators are advised to expect severe noise on the radio bands and to be prepared for potential disruptions to their communications.

  • How can the general public help mitigate the effects of solar storms on power grids?

    -The general public can help by voluntarily reducing power consumption, especially during the evening hours when the power grids are more likely to be affected by the solar storms.

  • What is the potential impact of solar storms on aviation, particularly for those flying over the poles?

    -Solar storms can cause radio blackouts and affect backup radio communications, as well as potentially disrupt GPS and other navigation systems, posing challenges for aviation, especially over the poles.

  • What is the expected level of solar storm conditions according to the NOAA model?

    -The NOAA model predicts severe storm conditions, with a high chance of reaching G4 levels.

  • What is the role of the sunspot region 3668 in the script?

    -Sunspot region 3668 is mentioned as merging with region 3664, contributing to the increased solar activity and the firing off of solar storms.

  • How does the new moon phase impact sky watchers and aurora photographers?

    -The new moon phase provides an opportunity for sky watchers and aurora photographers to capture dim objects in the sky and auroras without the moonlight washing out the views.

  • What is the potential effect of solar storms on GPS and other satellite-based systems?

    -Solar storms can cause interference with GPS and other satellite-based systems, affecting their accuracy and potentially disrupting services that rely on these systems.

Outlines

00:00

🌌 Solar Storms and Aurora Activity

The video discusses a series of seven solar storms heading towards Earth, which are expected to cause significant auroral displays. It highlights the high activity mode of space weather, particularly focusing on sunspot region 3663, which had been active earlier in the week. Regions 3664 and 3668 are also emphasized, which began to merge and produce solar storms after crossing the central meridian of the Sun. The video provides a detailed account of each storm's trajectory and potential impact on Earth, including the possibility of auroral displays and effects on radio communications.

05:11

🌠 Intensity and Impact of Solar Storms

This paragraph delves into the specifics of the solar storms, including the magnetic complexity of the regions involved and the types of flares observed. It discusses the continuous activity from region 3664, which is expected to persist even as it moves to the far side of the Sun. The video also addresses the impact on radio frequencies, with a significant rise in X-ray flux causing radio blackouts at an R1 level. The potential effects on aviation and GPS systems are also mentioned, with advice for amateur radio operators and emergency responders to remain vigilant.

10:11

🌨 Solar Storm Predictions and Aurora Forecast

The video presents a solar storm prediction model, illustrating the expected paths and impacts of the four most significant storms, referred to as 'Halos.' It clarifies that while the model shows these storms merging, in reality, they will compress each other without merging into a single event. The anticipated arrival times of the storms are discussed, with the most significant impacts expected on the 11th and 12th. The video also provides advice for aurora photographers and the general public on how to prepare for the increased solar activity.

15:12

📡 Radio Blackout and Power Grid Resilience

This section focuses on the potential for radio blackouts due to the solar flares and storms, with a high probability of M-class and X-class flares causing disruptions. The video provides a timeline for when the noise on radio bands is expected to decrease as the active region rotates away from Earth view. It encourages voluntary power reduction during the evening to assist utility companies in managing the increased load from the solar storms. The video also addresses the outlook for solar flares and the potential for further radio blackouts in the coming week.

20:12

✈️ Aviation and GPS Considerations

The video concludes with a discussion on the implications of the solar storms for aviation and GPS users. It advises that GPS reception may be adversely affected during the storms, particularly near auroral activity. It also mentions the need for frequent calibration of magnetometers for accurate readings. The video emphasizes the importance of being prepared and vigilant, especially for those involved in search and rescue operations or working in disaster areas.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Solar Storm

A solar storm is a sudden eruption of intense energy from the Sun's atmosphere, which can release charged particles into space. These storms can impact Earth's magnetosphere and cause auroras, disrupt radio communications, and affect satellites. In the video, a 'train of seven solar storms' is mentioned, which is expected to produce auroras and highlight the importance of space weather.

💡X-class Flare

An X-class flare is a powerful burst of radiation from the Sun, categorized as the strongest type of solar flare. These flares can cause significant disruptions to radio communications and satellite operations. The video discusses a 'big X-class flare' from region 3664, which contributed to the solar storms heading towards Earth.

💡Aurora

Auroras, also known as the Northern and Southern Lights, are natural light displays in the Earth's sky, predominantly seen in the polar regions. They are caused by the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere. The video suggests that the solar storms will bring auroral activity, even deep into mid-latitudes, if the magnetic field is oriented correctly.

💡Sunspot Region

A sunspot region, like regions 3664 and 3668 mentioned in the video, is an area on the Sun's surface that is cooler and more magnetically active than the surrounding areas. These regions can give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which are significant sources of space weather. The video discusses the merging of two sunspot regions and their role in the solar activity.

💡M-Class Flare

An M-class flare is a moderate solar event that can cause brief radio blackouts on Earth and minor radiation storms in space. The video mentions the possibility of M-class flares causing radio blackouts at an R1 to R2 level, indicating potential disruptions to day-side radio communications.

💡Radio Blackout

A radio blackout refers to the disruption or loss of radio communications due to solar activity, particularly solar flares. The video discusses the impact of solar flares on day-side radio bands, with the X-ray flux causing an R1 level radio blackout, significantly affecting amateur radio operators.

💡Space Weather

Space weather refers to the changing environmental conditions in space, primarily due to the Sun's activity. It can affect satellites, radio communications, and power grids on Earth. The video emphasizes the high activity mode of space weather, with a series of solar storms expected to impact Earth.

💡Heliophysics

Heliophysics is the study of the Sun and its interactions with the solar system, including the effects of solar activity on space weather. The video touches on helioseismology, a subfield that uses waves to probe the Sun's interior, which is relevant to understanding the behavior of sunspot regions.

💡Gigahertz (GHz)

Gigahertz is a unit of frequency equal to one billion hertz. In the context of the video, it refers to the high-frequency range of radio bursts caused by solar flares, which can impact aviation communications and GPS systems. The video mentions radio bursts up into the gigahertz range from the solar flares.

💡Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

A coronal mass ejection is a large expulsion of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the solar corona. These events can cause geomagnetic storms when they interact with Earth's magnetosphere. The video discusses a 'filament eruption' which is a part of a CME, contributing to the solar storms heading towards Earth.

💡Magnetometer

A magnetometer is an instrument used to measure the strength and direction of magnetic fields. In the context of the video, magnetometers are important for calibrating and monitoring changes in Earth's magnetic field during solar storms, which can affect navigation systems like GPS.

Highlights

Solar storms from region 3664 and 3668 have been highly active, producing multiple X-class flares and solar storms.

A train of seven solar storms is en route to Earth, promising increased auroral activity.

The first solar storm from the active region was partly directed towards Earth, with subsequent storms being more directly aimed.

The solar activity includes back-to-back solar storms and a significant flare that caused a radio blackout.

The solar storms are expected to impact Earth around the 10th or 11th, with potential for extended storming at a G4 level.

Amateur radio operators and emergency responders are advised to prepare for potential disruptions due to solar storms.

The solar storms may affect GPS and other navigation systems, particularly in the VHF range.

Aurora photographers can expect to capture increased auroral activity, especially if the magnetic field is favorably oriented.

The solar storm prediction model by NOAA suggests that the storms will merge, although in reality, they will be sequential.

The impact of the solar storms is expected to last through the 12th or 13th before conditions calm down.

The new moon phase provides an optimal time for sky watchers to observe dim astronomical objects and potential auroras.

Voluntary power reduction during evening hours can help utility companies manage the increased load during the solar storms.

The solar flux is expected to remain high due to the continued activity of region 3664, despite its rotation to the sun's west limb.

There is a high probability of M-class and X-class flares causing radio blackouts at R1 to R3 levels over the next three days.

Aviators and high-risk passengers should consider the elevated radiation storm levels in their flight plans, with potential for S1 to S2 levels.

The space weather this week is extremely active with potential for significant impacts on communication and navigation systems.

The active regions 3645, 3654, and 3644/48 are expected to rotate back into Earth view, possibly bringing more solar flares and storms.

Transcripts

00:00

we have a solar storm train of seven

00:02

solar storms on their way to Earth with

00:04

a promise of lots of Aurora and a

00:07

reminder of the importance of space

00:08

weather those stories and more in this

00:11

week's

00:13

[Music]

00:18

Spotlight space weather this week

00:21

remains in high activity mode as we take

00:23

a look at our Earth facing disc we had

00:25

been paying attention to region

00:27

3663 this had been the big xflare player

00:31

earlier in the week had been firing lots

00:33

of different x-class flares and other

00:35

big flares but it had not been giving us

00:37

any Earth directed solar storms however

00:40

as we watched region 3664 and

00:44

3668 once they cross Center disc right

00:47

around where that hot longitude was as

00:49

expected they started to grow in fact

00:52

region 3664 began to merge with region

00:55

3668 late on the 7th and into the eth

00:59

and that is when all the fireworks

01:01

really began to start in fact right

01:03

about the eth you see the this region

01:06

right in here began to fire off a solar

01:08

storm and then it fired off another

01:10

solar storm back to back right here

01:13

those were two storms and then it

01:14

launched one more storm right here and

01:17

if we take a look in chronographs you

01:19

can actually see the first solar storm

01:22

right here this is the one that's going

01:23

mainly Southwest of Earth but that's

01:26

still partly Earth directed so that's

01:28

storm one then shortly after after that

01:30

right on its tail you see a big halo

01:33

this is a totally Earth directed solar

01:35

storm that was the first big x-class

01:37

Flare from region 3664 and then shortly

01:41

thereafter we had yet another Halo bam

01:45

right there that is now storm number

01:47

three that's headed toward Earth and yet

01:50

this region was not done as it continued

01:53

to move we actually got more activity

01:55

from it but not before it fires off a

01:58

filament right here

02:00

off to the West slightly Northwest of

02:02

Earth but at this nearly the same time

02:05

we got yet another big Flare from this

02:08

region so we have yet another one two

02:10

from solar storms and then we had a

02:12

short one that came after that as well

02:15

but take a look in coronagraphs here is

02:17

the the partial Halo from this filament

02:20

eruption that's going mainly to the east

02:22

of Earth so what is that storm number

02:24

four now and then shortly thereafter

02:26

look there's another big halo so that is

02:29

now storm number five but we're still

02:32

not done in fact as we continue this

02:35

ride you'll actually see the part of

02:37

that filament or part of that eruption

02:39

pop off right there now as we move into

02:42

the ninth we're going to have yet two

02:44

more big solar storms we have a big

02:46

x-class flare coming up right about here

02:49

bam right there that's a big x-class

02:52

flare and with that we have yet another

02:55

big halo this is Storm number six so we

02:59

care you keep them counting we've got a

03:00

ton of solar storms all being rapid

03:03

fired at Earth and then shortly

03:06

thereafter as this region rotates a

03:08

little bit further to the West limb you

03:10

see yet ain't bam right there another

03:13

solar storm launch and this one has yet

03:16

another Halo you can see it it looks

03:18

like we're finally getting to a point

03:20

where this region is going to be

03:21

rotating uh basically out of the earth

03:23

Strike Zone here soon so hopefully that

03:26

that's just seven solar storms we're not

03:28

going to get any more Earth ired solar

03:30

storms from this region can't promise

03:32

that but there'll be more flanking blows

03:35

rather than big big uh direct hits now

03:38

thank goodness for that but despite that

03:41

we still have other regions on the East

03:44

limb if you recall we have some

03:47

farsighted regions that are going to be

03:49

uh rotating into Earth view in fact as

03:51

we take a look at our jsck HMI Helio

03:54

seismology farsighted viewer do you guys

03:56

remember regions

03:58

3645 3654 and region 3644 and 48 these

04:04

are regions that were giving us big

04:06

solar flares about two weeks ago and

04:09

they have all survived their far sided

04:12

passage you can see in the gold here

04:13

this is The Far Side of the Sun and

04:16

they're about to rotate back into Earth

04:18

view the dark regions show where those

04:20

Sun those Sunspot clusters are so get

04:23

ready because we're going to be having

04:25

possibly more activity uh returning into

04:29

Earth view giving us more big solar

04:32

flares and possibly the chance for big

04:34

solar storms again so even with region

04:37

3664 going off of the east or the West

04:41

limb we're still going to be uh having

04:43

quite a bit of activity so War

04:45

photographers get ready and amateur

04:47

radio operators and emergency responders

04:50

expect that you're going to still have

04:52

issues on Earth's day side with those

04:54

big radio bands because those big solar

04:56

flares just aren't going away

05:10

now taking a closer look at regions 3664

05:13

and region 3668 we haven't seen Sunspot

05:16

clusters like this in quite some time

05:19

now as we watch these regions rotate

05:21

across the disc you can see a blowup of

05:23

them here in the inset and as they pass

05:26

through this hot longitude that was

05:28

right about Center dis as expected

05:30

things started to change in fact you can

05:33

watch this new growth emerging right

05:35

here between region 3664 and 3668 and by

05:39

about the eth this region had really

05:42

kind of fused together in this really

05:44

magnetically complex region and this is

05:48

right about when region 3664 began to

05:51

take over you can see lots of flare

05:53

activity this is when we started getting

05:55

the big solar storm launches as well as

05:58

the big solar flares including including

05:59

big radio bursts up into the gigahertz

06:02

range and this is likely going to

06:04

continue because this region is showing

06:06

no signs of slowing down in fact even as

06:09

we get to late on the 9th you can see

06:12

still see a ton of complexity in this

06:15

region it is still firing off solar

06:17

flares as well as solar storms so this

06:19

region is likely going to survive its

06:21

Far Side passage it's also likely going

06:24

to be shooting off solar flares and

06:25

solar storms on the sun's far side and

06:28

in about two weeks we could very e well

06:30

easily see it again and it may still be

06:33

a big solar storm and solar flare

06:35

producer so we're going to be keeping

06:37

our eyes on it and amateur radio

06:39

operators emergency responders and even

06:41

you aviators this region is definitely

06:44

one that you got to keep your eyes

06:46

on and if the look of that active region

06:50

cluster did not get your attention this

06:51

surely will this is our M flare day side

06:54

radio blackout threat meter and look at

06:57

this thing as we move in you see all

06:59

these different flares Big M flares big

07:01

x-class flares this is from region

07:04

3663 but as we move into the eighth this

07:07

is right when region 3664 began to take

07:11

over and look at the noise floor for the

07:13

X-ray flux it has climbed so high that

07:16

the noise floor is sitting at the MF

07:19

flare level this is at an R1 radio

07:21

blackout level this is with out solar

07:24

flares so you amateur radio operators on

07:26

Earth's day side if you're wondering why

07:28

you can't get anything on the day side

07:30

radio bands this is why our noise level

07:34

is sitting at an R1 level radio blackout

07:37

we have popped either at or very near

07:41

the R3 level radio blackout Threshold at

07:44

least seven times in the last 48 hours

07:47

topping it off especially with an uh

07:50

x4.5 flare and this is the flare that

07:53

actually caused a radio blackout that

07:56

act and with a a huge radio burst in

07:59

that had a ton of energy in the VHF

08:02

range so you aviators this could

08:04

definitely affect your backup radio

08:06

communications especially if you're

08:08

flying over the poles and it also had

08:10

energy up in the 800 to uh 1 gigahertz

08:14

range and that becomes a really close to

08:16

those adsb transponders as well as to

08:20

GPS and gnss receivers so amateur radio

08:23

operators as well as aviators and anyone

08:26

using GPS if you're on Earth's day side

08:29

you definitely could be affected by this

08:31

so deal with you're going to have to

08:33

deal with it over the next 36 to to 48

08:37

hours before this region begins to

08:39

rotate to the sun's far side and

08:41

hopefully these types of radio bursts

08:43

will begin to go

08:45

away and now returning to those Earth

08:48

directed solar storms in order to get

08:50

better details on which storms are going

08:53

to be direct hits and which ones are

08:54

flanking blows we take advantage of the

08:57

full view of the Soho Lasco coronograph

08:59

as it's viewed from Earth and you can

09:02

see that first solar storm this is the

09:04

one that was launched mainly Southwest

09:06

of Earth but on its heels will be a full

09:09

Halo that goes all the way around the

09:11

Sun that will be solar storm to you'll

09:12

see it boom right there this is the full

09:15

Halo that is Storm number two this storm

09:18

was the one that was launched with the

09:19

very first x-class Flare from region

09:21

3664 and kind of really set the gears in

09:24

motion shortly after that we get yet

09:26

another Halo you can see that right

09:28

there that is solar storm number three

09:30

so that's the second Halo that's going

09:32

to be a direct hit at Earth then shortly

09:35

thereafter we get that filament launch

09:37

this is Storm number four it's mainly

09:39

going Northeast of Earth but right after

09:42

that you'll see yet another Halo this is

09:45

Storm number five and that means it's

09:47

the third Halo the third solar storm

09:50

that's going to be a Direct Hit or looks

09:52

like it's going to be a direct hit at

09:53

Earth and it's going to be very

09:55

impactful then it's followed by that

09:58

solar storm launched ing the x4.5 flare

10:02

this was probably the strongest of the

10:04

bunch and this one looks also like it's

10:06

going to be a direct hit so this is now

10:08

storm number four that is a direct hit

10:11

at Earth but a total of six storms thus

10:14

far and then we finally get the Caboose

10:16

boom right there this is Storm number

10:18

seven you can see it's no longer kind of

10:20

a it's an a what we call an asymmetric

10:22

Halo it looks like it's a bit on the

10:24

weak side so luckily it seems like this

10:27

one will be a bit of a weaker punch and

10:29

it also shows that region 3664 is now

10:32

rotating out of the Earth's strike zone

10:35

so hopefully this will be the last of

10:36

the storms will'll have to deal with

10:38

before this region rotates to the sun's

10:40

Far Side now as we take a look at our uh

10:44

solar storm prediction model enl this is

10:47

Noah's version of the model the top

10:48

panels density the bottom panels

10:50

velocity and you're looking down at the

10:52

Sun from the North Pole with Earth being

10:53

off to the right and you're going to see

10:55

four solar storms that are launched in

10:58

this version of of this run this is

11:01

these four storms are the four Halos the

11:04

four direct what we consider direct hits

11:08

uh back to back to back to back and

11:09

hopefully you can see them as I set this

11:11

in motion now as you watch them coming

11:15

out I'll stop them right here they're

11:16

already beginning to merge in this model

11:19

and this is where we have to be very

11:21

careful because this model doesn't take

11:25

into account how the magnetic field of

11:27

of these solar storms really interact

11:29

with each other these storms are not

11:31

merging into one big storm even though

11:33

the model shows it will we couldn't run

11:35

the model faster than real time if we

11:37

had to really include all of the real

11:39

life details so we we do the best we can

11:42

as you see these storms merging into a

11:44

single storm you need to take this with

11:47

a grain of salt because these storms

11:49

really are just going to be coming back

11:50

to back to back they're going to

11:52

compress each other but they're not

11:54

going to merge into a single storm so as

11:57

we take a look at the impact time Noah

11:59

is expecting the the storms to arrive

12:02

either late on the 10th or early into

12:04

the 11th and you see most of the

12:05

storming will be done on the 11th but

12:08

likely because these storms don't really

12:10

merge they're going to be spread out and

12:13

we're probably going to get some

12:14

storming into the 12th possibly even

12:17

into the 13th before things calm down

12:20

now as we switch to our NASA version of

12:22

the model again you're looking down the

12:25

Sun from the North Pole with Earth being

12:27

off to the right you're seeing those

12:28

same four big halo storms being uh being

12:32

modeled here and as they come out once

12:34

again you see them beginning to merge

12:37

this is not what the storms will

12:39

actually do they're just going to

12:40

compress each other quite a bit but they

12:42

are going to be individual storms just

12:44

all compressed together NASA shows the

12:48

initial impact will be a little bit

12:49

earlier than what Noah is predicting

12:52

that is on the evening of the 10th

12:54

likely things again are going to start

12:56

really ramping up on the 11th however

12:59

and the storming will continue easily

13:02

into the 12th and into the 13th before

13:05

things calm down so Aurora photographers

13:07

it doesn't matter where you are if the

13:10

magnetic field is oriented the right way

13:12

you're going to get to see some decent

13:14

Aurora deep into mid latitude so

13:16

definitely keep your batteries

13:18

charged switching to our moon we are now

13:21

coming out of a new moon on our way to

13:23

our first quarter and by the 15th the

13:25

moon will be about 50% illuminated so

13:27

unite Sky Watchers if if you want to

13:29

catch those dim objects in the sky and I

13:31

don't know maybe some Aurora well now is

13:33

your perfect

13:35

chance now switching to our solar storm

13:37

conditions and Aurora possibilities over

13:39

the coming week we are anticipating that

13:41

train of solar storms that's on its way

13:43

to Earth it should hit basically

13:45

starting around the 11th so it should be

13:48

no surprise that we're going to be

13:49

storming in through the weekend and

13:51

possibly into the early part of next

13:54

week before things calm down at high

13:56

latitudes Noah is expecting severe storm

13:58

conditions in fact they have about a 90%

14:00

chance of severe storm conditions at a

14:03

G4 level and this is going to continue

14:06

in through the 12th likely things will

14:08

begin to calm down a little bit we could

14:10

see G3 levels on the 12th and then

14:12

things will continue to calm down as we

14:14

move into early next week Aurora

14:16

photographers if you're at high

14:18

latitudes of course you could get Aurora

14:20

if that magnetic field is oriented the

14:22

right way in fact you might even have to

14:25

look Southward for the Aurora but for

14:28

those of you who are concerned about the

14:30

resilience of our power grids and you

14:32

want to help you can voluntarily turn

14:36

down your power consumption especially

14:38

once the sun goes down because that's

14:40

when those big currents uh end up

14:42

becoming a problem for us is at

14:45

nighttime so it gives the power uh

14:47

utility companies a little bit more

14:48

leeway to handle some of those currents

14:51

from that big solar storm that's hitting

14:54

and don't worry at all about Aurora if

14:56

you're seeing them overhead that is just

14:59

our Earth kind of blowing off steam and

15:02

dissipating the energy from these solar

15:03

storms it's completely normal now as we

15:06

switch to Mid latitude well we are still

15:09

looking at solar storm conditions in

15:12

fact we are still expecting severe storm

15:14

conditions but this time we're going to

15:16

expect a G4 level but only about a 50%

15:19

chance of hitting a G4 level then we're

15:21

going to bump down to likely major storm

15:23

conditions but we still have about a 25%

15:26

chance of a severe storm on the 12th and

15:28

again things will calm down shortly

15:30

after that so Aurora photographers if

15:32

you're at Mid latitudes yes absolutely

15:34

you could get some Aurora likely not as

15:37

many issues when it comes to power

15:39

consumption but still the same thing

15:41

goes for those of you at Mid latitudes

15:43

if you'd like to do you know like to

15:45

help during uh periods like this

15:47

especially if the storming continues

15:50

over a long period of time like 24 to 48

15:52

hours at these high levels then yes if

15:56

you would like to voluntarily reduce

15:58

your power consumption at night I'm sure

16:00

the power companies will thank

16:03

you and now switching to our solar flare

16:06

and day side radio blackout Outlook over

16:08

the coming week we are sitting around

16:10

the mid2 200s for solar flux and this is

16:13

because mainly because of region

16:16

3664 that is going to be rotating to the

16:18

sun's West limb in about 3 days but

16:21

likely the solar flux is going to stay

16:23

above 200 because we're going to have

16:24

new regions rotating into Earth view

16:27

nonetheless over the next next three

16:29

three days we're expecting to have

16:30

severe noise on the radio bands this is

16:33

uh because we have about a 95% chance of

16:36

mclass flares this is at the R1 to R2

16:38

level radio blackout and we have even up

16:41

to about a 50% chance of x-class flares

16:44

at an R3 level radio blackout over the

16:46

next 3 days you'll notice that we'll

16:48

begin to die down a little bit as we

16:51

move into the early part of next week

16:53

the noise will begin to go to down to

16:55

the moderate range thank goodness for

16:57

that that's because region 366 4 will

16:59

finally be disappearing from sight so

17:02

amateur radio operators and emergency

17:04

responders and you aviators well just

17:06

kind of hang in there over the next

17:08

couple days and things will get better

17:10

on the day side radio bands and you GPS

17:13

users also stay vigilant especially near

17:17

Dawn and near

17:18

Dusk and now switching to our radiation

17:21

storm and polar Aviation Outlook over

17:23

the coming week we are sitting at D1

17:25

normal range right now this is at flight

17:27

level 360 you aviators it's also the s0

17:31

level but our radiation storm levels are

17:33

a bit elevated right now and this is

17:36

because we have that big solar storm

17:38

train of events that are on their way to

17:40

Earth likely this bit of solar storm

17:43

radiation will rise a little bit we

17:45

could even see the D2 minor range right

17:48

around the 11th when the storms hit and

17:50

that might even bump us up to the S1

17:53

level for radiation storm we have about

17:55

a 50% chance that's what Noah is giving

17:57

us about a 50% % chance of an S1 to S2

18:01

level radiation uh storm over the course

18:03

of the 11th but then things will likely

18:05

begin to calm back down as these solar

18:08

storms wash over us and begin to clear

18:10

out so you aviators and flight crew and

18:13

you high-risk passengers as well as your

18:16

frequent flyers please take this into

18:18

consideration in your flight plans and

18:20

you aviators also be sure to check those

18:23

ik advisories often because these

18:26

conditions can change quite quickly

18:29

so the space weather this week is

18:31

extremely active we have seven Earth

18:33

directed solar storms that should be

18:35

hitting us starting late on the 10th

18:38

early into the 11th could definitely

18:40

bring Aurora deep into mid latitudes and

18:43

cause extended storming possibly at the

18:46

G4 level so Aurora photographers you're

18:49

definitely going to get a show if that

18:51

magnetic field orientation is the right

18:53

way and don't be concerned if you see

18:56

Aurora overhead this is just just our

18:59

Earth dissipating that energy from that

19:01

solar storm it is completely normal but

19:04

for those of you who wish that you could

19:06

help and don't really know how to well

19:09

just turn down your power consumption

19:11

over the course of the evening hours

19:13

because that will actually give the

19:15

utility companies a little bit more of

19:18

relief so that they can weather the

19:20

storm just like everybody else and now

19:22

you amateur radio operators and

19:24

emergency responders well right now

19:27

things are really tough on on Earth's

19:29

day side we are sitting at a very severe

19:32

noise level and that's because of region

19:34

3664 firing off just a slew of flares

19:38

and radio bursts at even at high levels

19:41

up to the gigahertz range so just hang

19:43

in there because this region will be

19:45

disappearing in about 3 days and likely

19:48

that noise floor is going to drop quite

19:49

a bit and you'll just be like thank

19:51

goodness but for those of you who are

19:53

working the disaster areas and the

19:56

tornado watches just understand that the

19:58

day side may not be the best place to

20:01

work so you can work on the night side

20:03

until those solar storms hit but when

20:05

the solar storms hit the night side's

20:06

not going to be much better either so

20:08

you're really going to need to pay close

20:10

attention to the space weather and try

20:12

to work as best as you can and now you

20:15

GPS users same thing if you're doing

20:17

search and rescue just realize your GPS

20:21

reception may not be all that good

20:23

either on Earth's day side or on the

20:25

night side even especially when those

20:28

solar storms come especially near Aurora

20:31

so be very Vigilant and careful as you

20:33

fly and also remember to calibrate your

20:36

magnetometers often I'm TMA the the

20:39

space weather woman thank you for

20:41

watching

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Etiquetas relacionadas
Solar StormsAurorasSpace WeatherRegion 3664X-Class FlaresRadio BlackoutAmateur RadioEmergency ResponseGPS InterferenceAviation ImpactPower Grid Resilience
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