An Extreme G4 Solar Storm Train, Eight Storms Race to Earth | Space Weather Spotlight 10 May 2024

we have a solar storm train of seven

solar storms on their way to Earth with

a promise of lots of Aurora and a

reminder of the importance of space

weather those stories and more in this

week's

[Music]

Spotlight space weather this week

remains in high activity mode as we take

a look at our Earth facing disc we had

been paying attention to region

3663 this had been the big xflare player

earlier in the week had been firing lots

of different x-class flares and other

big flares but it had not been giving us

any Earth directed solar storms however

as we watched region 3664 and

3668 once they cross Center disc right

around where that hot longitude was as

expected they started to grow in fact

region 3664 began to merge with region

3668 late on the 7th and into the eth

and that is when all the fireworks

really began to start in fact right

about the eth you see the this region

right in here began to fire off a solar

storm and then it fired off another

solar storm back to back right here

those were two storms and then it

launched one more storm right here and

if we take a look in chronographs you

can actually see the first solar storm

right here this is the one that's going

mainly Southwest of Earth but that's

still partly Earth directed so that's

storm one then shortly after after that

right on its tail you see a big halo

this is a totally Earth directed solar

storm that was the first big x-class

Flare from region 3664 and then shortly

thereafter we had yet another Halo bam

right there that is now storm number

three that's headed toward Earth and yet

this region was not done as it continued

to move we actually got more activity

from it but not before it fires off a

filament right here

off to the West slightly Northwest of

Earth but at this nearly the same time

we got yet another big Flare from this

region so we have yet another one two

from solar storms and then we had a

short one that came after that as well

but take a look in coronagraphs here is

the the partial Halo from this filament

eruption that's going mainly to the east

of Earth so what is that storm number

four now and then shortly thereafter

look there's another big halo so that is

now storm number five but we're still

not done in fact as we continue this

ride you'll actually see the part of

that filament or part of that eruption

pop off right there now as we move into

the ninth we're going to have yet two

more big solar storms we have a big

x-class flare coming up right about here

bam right there that's a big x-class

flare and with that we have yet another

big halo this is Storm number six so we

care you keep them counting we've got a

ton of solar storms all being rapid

fired at Earth and then shortly

thereafter as this region rotates a

little bit further to the West limb you

see yet ain't bam right there another

solar storm launch and this one has yet

another Halo you can see it it looks

like we're finally getting to a point

where this region is going to be

rotating uh basically out of the earth

Strike Zone here soon so hopefully that

that's just seven solar storms we're not

going to get any more Earth ired solar

storms from this region can't promise

that but there'll be more flanking blows

rather than big big uh direct hits now

thank goodness for that but despite that

we still have other regions on the East

limb if you recall we have some

farsighted regions that are going to be

uh rotating into Earth view in fact as

we take a look at our jsck HMI Helio

seismology farsighted viewer do you guys

remember regions

3645 3654 and region 3644 and 48 these

are regions that were giving us big

solar flares about two weeks ago and

they have all survived their far sided

passage you can see in the gold here

this is The Far Side of the Sun and

they're about to rotate back into Earth

view the dark regions show where those

Sun those Sunspot clusters are so get

ready because we're going to be having

possibly more activity uh returning into

Earth view giving us more big solar

flares and possibly the chance for big

solar storms again so even with region

3664 going off of the east or the West

limb we're still going to be uh having

quite a bit of activity so War

photographers get ready and amateur

radio operators and emergency responders

expect that you're going to still have

issues on Earth's day side with those

big radio bands because those big solar

flares just aren't going away

now taking a closer look at regions 3664

and region 3668 we haven't seen Sunspot

clusters like this in quite some time

now as we watch these regions rotate

across the disc you can see a blowup of

them here in the inset and as they pass

through this hot longitude that was

right about Center dis as expected

things started to change in fact you can

watch this new growth emerging right

here between region 3664 and 3668 and by

about the eth this region had really

kind of fused together in this really

magnetically complex region and this is

right about when region 3664 began to

take over you can see lots of flare

activity this is when we started getting

the big solar storm launches as well as

the big solar flares including including

big radio bursts up into the gigahertz

range and this is likely going to

continue because this region is showing

no signs of slowing down in fact even as

we get to late on the 9th you can see

still see a ton of complexity in this

region it is still firing off solar

flares as well as solar storms so this

region is likely going to survive its

Far Side passage it's also likely going

to be shooting off solar flares and

solar storms on the sun's far side and

in about two weeks we could very e well

easily see it again and it may still be

a big solar storm and solar flare

producer so we're going to be keeping

our eyes on it and amateur radio

operators emergency responders and even

you aviators this region is definitely

one that you got to keep your eyes

on and if the look of that active region

cluster did not get your attention this

surely will this is our M flare day side

radio blackout threat meter and look at

this thing as we move in you see all

these different flares Big M flares big

x-class flares this is from region

3663 but as we move into the eighth this

is right when region 3664 began to take

over and look at the noise floor for the

X-ray flux it has climbed so high that

the noise floor is sitting at the MF

flare level this is at an R1 radio

blackout level this is with out solar

flares so you amateur radio operators on

Earth's day side if you're wondering why

you can't get anything on the day side

radio bands this is why our noise level

is sitting at an R1 level radio blackout

we have popped either at or very near

the R3 level radio blackout Threshold at

least seven times in the last 48 hours

topping it off especially with an uh

x4.5 flare and this is the flare that

actually caused a radio blackout that

act and with a a huge radio burst in

that had a ton of energy in the VHF

range so you aviators this could

definitely affect your backup radio

communications especially if you're

flying over the poles and it also had

energy up in the 800 to uh 1 gigahertz

range and that becomes a really close to

those adsb transponders as well as to

GPS and gnss receivers so amateur radio

operators as well as aviators and anyone

using GPS if you're on Earth's day side

you definitely could be affected by this

so deal with you're going to have to

deal with it over the next 36 to to 48

hours before this region begins to

rotate to the sun's far side and

hopefully these types of radio bursts

will begin to go

away and now returning to those Earth

directed solar storms in order to get

better details on which storms are going

to be direct hits and which ones are

flanking blows we take advantage of the

full view of the Soho Lasco coronograph

as it's viewed from Earth and you can

see that first solar storm this is the

one that was launched mainly Southwest

of Earth but on its heels will be a full

Halo that goes all the way around the

Sun that will be solar storm to you'll

see it boom right there this is the full

Halo that is Storm number two this storm

was the one that was launched with the

very first x-class Flare from region

3664 and kind of really set the gears in

motion shortly after that we get yet

another Halo you can see that right

there that is solar storm number three

so that's the second Halo that's going

to be a direct hit at Earth then shortly

thereafter we get that filament launch

this is Storm number four it's mainly

going Northeast of Earth but right after

that you'll see yet another Halo this is

Storm number five and that means it's

the third Halo the third solar storm

that's going to be a Direct Hit or looks

like it's going to be a direct hit at

Earth and it's going to be very

impactful then it's followed by that

solar storm launched ing the x4.5 flare

this was probably the strongest of the

bunch and this one looks also like it's

going to be a direct hit so this is now

storm number four that is a direct hit

at Earth but a total of six storms thus

far and then we finally get the Caboose

boom right there this is Storm number

seven you can see it's no longer kind of

a it's an a what we call an asymmetric

Halo it looks like it's a bit on the

weak side so luckily it seems like this

one will be a bit of a weaker punch and

it also shows that region 3664 is now

rotating out of the Earth's strike zone

so hopefully this will be the last of

the storms will'll have to deal with

before this region rotates to the sun's

Far Side now as we take a look at our uh

solar storm prediction model enl this is

Noah's version of the model the top

panels density the bottom panels

velocity and you're looking down at the

Sun from the North Pole with Earth being

off to the right and you're going to see

four solar storms that are launched in

this version of of this run this is

these four storms are the four Halos the

four direct what we consider direct hits

uh back to back to back to back and

hopefully you can see them as I set this

in motion now as you watch them coming

out I'll stop them right here they're

already beginning to merge in this model

and this is where we have to be very

careful because this model doesn't take

into account how the magnetic field of

of these solar storms really interact

with each other these storms are not

merging into one big storm even though

the model shows it will we couldn't run

the model faster than real time if we

had to really include all of the real

life details so we we do the best we can

as you see these storms merging into a

single storm you need to take this with

a grain of salt because these storms

really are just going to be coming back

to back to back they're going to

compress each other but they're not

going to merge into a single storm so as

we take a look at the impact time Noah

is expecting the the storms to arrive

either late on the 10th or early into

the 11th and you see most of the

storming will be done on the 11th but

likely because these storms don't really

merge they're going to be spread out and

we're probably going to get some

storming into the 12th possibly even

into the 13th before things calm down

now as we switch to our NASA version of

the model again you're looking down the

Sun from the North Pole with Earth being

off to the right you're seeing those

same four big halo storms being uh being

modeled here and as they come out once

again you see them beginning to merge

this is not what the storms will

actually do they're just going to

compress each other quite a bit but they

are going to be individual storms just

all compressed together NASA shows the

initial impact will be a little bit

earlier than what Noah is predicting

that is on the evening of the 10th

likely things again are going to start

really ramping up on the 11th however

and the storming will continue easily

into the 12th and into the 13th before

things calm down so Aurora photographers

it doesn't matter where you are if the

magnetic field is oriented the right way

you're going to get to see some decent

Aurora deep into mid latitude so

definitely keep your batteries

charged switching to our moon we are now

coming out of a new moon on our way to

our first quarter and by the 15th the

moon will be about 50% illuminated so

unite Sky Watchers if if you want to

catch those dim objects in the sky and I

don't know maybe some Aurora well now is

your perfect

chance now switching to our solar storm

conditions and Aurora possibilities over

the coming week we are anticipating that

train of solar storms that's on its way

to Earth it should hit basically

starting around the 11th so it should be

no surprise that we're going to be

storming in through the weekend and

possibly into the early part of next

week before things calm down at high

latitudes Noah is expecting severe storm

conditions in fact they have about a 90%

chance of severe storm conditions at a

G4 level and this is going to continue

in through the 12th likely things will

begin to calm down a little bit we could

see G3 levels on the 12th and then

things will continue to calm down as we

move into early next week Aurora

photographers if you're at high

latitudes of course you could get Aurora

if that magnetic field is oriented the

right way in fact you might even have to

look Southward for the Aurora but for

those of you who are concerned about the

resilience of our power grids and you

want to help you can voluntarily turn

down your power consumption especially

once the sun goes down because that's

when those big currents uh end up

becoming a problem for us is at

nighttime so it gives the power uh

utility companies a little bit more

leeway to handle some of those currents

from that big solar storm that's hitting

and don't worry at all about Aurora if

you're seeing them overhead that is just

our Earth kind of blowing off steam and

dissipating the energy from these solar

storms it's completely normal now as we

switch to Mid latitude well we are still

looking at solar storm conditions in

fact we are still expecting severe storm

conditions but this time we're going to

expect a G4 level but only about a 50%

chance of hitting a G4 level then we're

going to bump down to likely major storm

conditions but we still have about a 25%

chance of a severe storm on the 12th and

again things will calm down shortly

after that so Aurora photographers if

you're at Mid latitudes yes absolutely

you could get some Aurora likely not as

many issues when it comes to power

consumption but still the same thing

goes for those of you at Mid latitudes

if you'd like to do you know like to

help during uh periods like this

especially if the storming continues

over a long period of time like 24 to 48

hours at these high levels then yes if

you would like to voluntarily reduce

your power consumption at night I'm sure

the power companies will thank

you and now switching to our solar flare

and day side radio blackout Outlook over

the coming week we are sitting around

the mid2 200s for solar flux and this is

because mainly because of region

3664 that is going to be rotating to the

sun's West limb in about 3 days but

likely the solar flux is going to stay

above 200 because we're going to have

new regions rotating into Earth view

nonetheless over the next next three

three days we're expecting to have

severe noise on the radio bands this is

uh because we have about a 95% chance of

mclass flares this is at the R1 to R2

level radio blackout and we have even up

to about a 50% chance of x-class flares

at an R3 level radio blackout over the

next 3 days you'll notice that we'll

begin to die down a little bit as we

move into the early part of next week

the noise will begin to go to down to

the moderate range thank goodness for

that that's because region 366 4 will

finally be disappearing from sight so

amateur radio operators and emergency

responders and you aviators well just

kind of hang in there over the next

couple days and things will get better

on the day side radio bands and you GPS

users also stay vigilant especially near

Dawn and near

Dusk and now switching to our radiation

storm and polar Aviation Outlook over

the coming week we are sitting at D1

normal range right now this is at flight

level 360 you aviators it's also the s0

level but our radiation storm levels are

a bit elevated right now and this is

because we have that big solar storm

train of events that are on their way to

Earth likely this bit of solar storm

radiation will rise a little bit we

could even see the D2 minor range right

around the 11th when the storms hit and

that might even bump us up to the S1

level for radiation storm we have about

a 50% chance that's what Noah is giving

us about a 50% % chance of an S1 to S2

level radiation uh storm over the course

of the 11th but then things will likely

begin to calm back down as these solar

storms wash over us and begin to clear

out so you aviators and flight crew and

you high-risk passengers as well as your

frequent flyers please take this into

consideration in your flight plans and

you aviators also be sure to check those

ik advisories often because these

conditions can change quite quickly

so the space weather this week is

extremely active we have seven Earth

directed solar storms that should be

hitting us starting late on the 10th

early into the 11th could definitely

bring Aurora deep into mid latitudes and

cause extended storming possibly at the

G4 level so Aurora photographers you're

definitely going to get a show if that

magnetic field orientation is the right

way and don't be concerned if you see

Aurora overhead this is just just our

Earth dissipating that energy from that

solar storm it is completely normal but

for those of you who wish that you could

help and don't really know how to well

just turn down your power consumption

over the course of the evening hours

because that will actually give the

utility companies a little bit more of

relief so that they can weather the

storm just like everybody else and now

you amateur radio operators and

emergency responders well right now

things are really tough on on Earth's

day side we are sitting at a very severe

noise level and that's because of region

3664 firing off just a slew of flares

and radio bursts at even at high levels

up to the gigahertz range so just hang

in there because this region will be

disappearing in about 3 days and likely

that noise floor is going to drop quite

a bit and you'll just be like thank

goodness but for those of you who are

working the disaster areas and the

tornado watches just understand that the

day side may not be the best place to

work so you can work on the night side

until those solar storms hit but when

the solar storms hit the night side's

not going to be much better either so

you're really going to need to pay close

attention to the space weather and try

to work as best as you can and now you

GPS users same thing if you're doing

search and rescue just realize your GPS

reception may not be all that good

either on Earth's day side or on the

night side even especially when those

solar storms come especially near Aurora

so be very Vigilant and careful as you

fly and also remember to calibrate your

magnetometers often I'm TMA the the

space weather woman thank you for

watching