What the Death of Iran's President Means for the Middle East and the World

William Spaniel
20 May 202413:09

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the implications of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter crash on May 19, 2024, amid foggy conditions near a dam site in East Azerbaijan, Iran. It explores the possibility of sabotage given Iran's tense relations with neighboring countries and the potential for political exploitation of the tragedy. The script also delves into the political power dynamics within Iran, the role of the Ayatollah, and the upcoming election's potential impact on Iran's foreign and domestic policies, including its support for the 'Axis of Resistance' and involvement in international conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine War.

Takeaways

  • 🇮🇷 The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has significant implications for Iran's political landscape.
  • 🛑 The crash occurred in Iran's East Azerbaijan province, not far from a dam site, due to poor visibility caused by fog.
  • 🕵️‍♂️ Initial suspicions of foul play are overshadowed by the prevailing theory that the crash was due to bad piloting.
  • 🛩 The helicopter, a Bell 212, was an outdated model produced in the West, highlighting Iran's limited access to replacement parts due to sanctions.
  • 🏛️ Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif blamed the United States for the tragedy, citing the embargo on aircraft and aviation parts.
  • 🔍 The crash raises questions about succession within Iran's political hierarchy, as Raisi was considered a likely successor to Ayatollah Khamenei.
  • 🗳️ Iran's constitution dictates that an election must be held within 50 days to fill the presidential vacancy, which could impact Iran's domestic and foreign policies.
  • 🎯 The upcoming election could serve as a referendum on Iran's current policies, including its support for the 'Axis of Resistance' and military assistance to Russia.
  • 🔄 The West may benefit from a temporary shift in Iran's focus from foreign to domestic security, potentially creating a window of opportunity for regional rivals.
  • 🤝 There is a possibility of a grand bargain involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which could be influenced by the political changes in Iran.
  • 📈 The event underscores the unpredictability of international relations and the potential for significant shifts in power dynamics following unexpected incidents.

Q & A

  • What was the purpose of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to the border with Azerbaijan?

    -Ebrahim Raisi visited the border with Azerbaijan to inaugurate a dam and hydroelectric plant built along the countries' river border.

  • Why were there concerns about a potential war between Iran and Azerbaijan?

    -There were concerns about a war due to Azerbaijan's efforts to strengthen relations with Israel and Iran's strong feelings about Azerbaijan's border with Armenia, which Iran considered a red line.

  • How did the Kremlin's distraction impact the situation between Iran and Azerbaijan?

    -With the peacekeeping forces in the region being Russian and the Kremlin distracted elsewhere, Azerbaijan made its move, and Iran's 'red line' turned out to be a bluff.

  • What was the cause of the helicopter crash that resulted in President Raisi's death?

    -The helicopter crash was caused by the pilot struggling to navigate through thick fog, which resulted in a crash in East Azerbaijan, not far from the dam site.

  • What is the geographical confusion regarding the name 'Azerbaijan'?

    -The geographical confusion stems from the fact that there are two regions named Azerbaijan. One is the country of Azerbaijan, and the other is East Azerbaijan, a province in Iran, which is south of the country of Azerbaijan despite its name.

  • What was the immediate question following President Raisi's death?

    -The immediate question was whether foul play was involved in the helicopter crash that led to President Raisi's death.

  • Why might a country be tempted to commit sabotage against Iran, and how does this relate to the helicopter crash?

    -Countries that do not like Iran might be tempted to commit sabotage because the absence of obvious attribution makes it difficult to trace the act back to them. However, the prevailing theory for the crash was bad piloting rather than sabotage.

  • How did the Iran Deal and the subsequent U.S. sanctions impact Iran's ability to maintain its aircraft?

    -The U.S. embargo on the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran, as part of the sanctions following the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran Deal, left Iran operating antiquated Western equipment without easy access to replacement parts.

  • What political implications does President Raisi's death have for Iran's succession?

    -Raisi was a consensus likely successor to Ayatollah Khamenei. His death has permanently blocked off that future path, and the upcoming election will serve as a surprise referendum on Iran's current policies.

  • How does Iran's constitution address the situation of a presidential vacancy?

    -According to Iran's constitution, the first vice president becomes acting president once the Ayatollah gives his consent, and an election must be held within 50 days to fill the position properly.

  • What is the significance of the upcoming Iranian election in the context of the country's foreign and domestic policies?

    -The election is significant as it could potentially bring changes to Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' policies and its role in regional conflicts. It may also affect Iran's military assistance to Russia, which is a key source of funding for its operations.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Geopolitical Implications of Iranian President's Helicopter Crash

The first paragraph discusses the complexities of the geopolitical situation following the tragic helicopter crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. It highlights the potential oversimplification of the event's significance and its impact on regional relations. The visit to the Iran-Azerbaijan border for the inauguration of a dam and hydroelectric plant is detailed, along with the historical tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan. The narrative explains how the peacekeeping forces in the region were preoccupied, allowing Azerbaijan to assert its interests. The crash's occurrence due to poor visibility in foggy conditions is described, and the immediate speculation about possible sabotage is addressed. The prevailing theory points to pilot error, and the potential for Iran to exploit the situation for political gain is considered. The paragraph also touches on the implications of Iran operating outdated Western equipment due to sanctions.

05:02

🗓 The Aftermath and Political Ramifications of Raisi's Death

This paragraph delves into the political aftermath of President Raisi's death, emphasizing the importance of his role in Iran's political structure and the potential for power shifts. It mentions the consensus that Raisi was a likely successor to Ayatollah Khamenei, and how his death has altered the future leadership dynamics within Iran. The paragraph also discusses the immediate constitutional response to the president's death, with the first vice president becoming the acting president pending an election. The potential for the upcoming election to act as a referendum on Iran's current policies and the risk it poses to the regime is explored. Additionally, the paragraph examines how elections can serve as a platform for autocratic leaders to test new policies and the historical context of Iran's political shifts, including the election of Raisi as a hardliner and the country's strengthening of its 'Axis of Resistance'.

10:03

💥 The Broader Impact of Iran's Policies and the Upcoming Election

The third paragraph examines the broader implications of Iran's foreign and domestic policies, particularly its support for various proxy groups and its role in supplying drones to Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. It suggests that the upcoming election could serve as a surprise referendum on these contentious policies, which autocracies typically dislike. The paragraph also discusses the potential for a shift in Iran's policies, particularly in relation to its military assistance to Russia and its stance within the 'Axis of Resistance'. It considers the possibility that increased domestic focus due to the election could provide a window of opportunity for Iran's regional rivals. The intriguing prospect of a grand bargain involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel is mentioned, with the caveat that recent Israeli actions could pose a significant obstacle. The paragraph concludes by acknowledging the unpredictable nature of the situation, with a high probability of either significant change or status quo.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Ebrahim Raisi

Ebrahim Raisi is the President of Iran mentioned in the script. He is a central figure in the video's narrative due to his significant role in Iranian politics and his involvement in the tragic helicopter crash that led to his death. The video discusses the implications of his death on Iran's political landscape and its international relations.

💡Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is a country bordering Iran, and it plays a critical role in the video's story as the location of President Raisi's visit to inaugurate a dam and hydroelectric plant. The video also touches on the geopolitical tensions between Azerbaijan, Iran, and Armenia, highlighting the complexities of the region.

💡Helicopter crash

The helicopter crash is a pivotal event in the video, resulting in the death of President Raisi. It serves as the catalyst for the discussion on the potential political ramifications within Iran and the broader implications for regional stability and international relations.

💡Foul play

Foul play refers to the suspicion of sabotage or intentional interference in the helicopter crash. The video mentions this as a consideration in the aftermath of the crash, exploring the geopolitical dynamics that might incite such actions and the difficulty in attributing responsibility.

💡Sanctions

Sanctions are economic or political measures imposed on a country to force it to comply with international law or to change its policies. The video discusses how U.S. sanctions on Iran, which include an embargo on the sale of aircraft and aviation parts, may have contributed to the use of outdated equipment and the crash.

💡Axis of Resistance

The Axis of Resistance is a term used to describe Iran's alliance with various regional groups and countries that oppose Western influence and policies, particularly those of the United States and Israel. The video mentions this concept in the context of Iran's foreign policy under President Raisi.

💡Rally around the flag effect

The rally around the flag effect is a political phenomenon where the public comes together in support of the government during a crisis. The video suggests that Iran might use the potential for sabotage to create such an effect, thereby building support for a potential offensive.

💡Iran Deal

The Iran Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a multilateral agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting international sanctions. The video refers to the deal in the context of Iran's previous engagement with the West and its subsequent unraveling under the Trump administration.

💡Autocracy

Autocracy is a form of government in which a single individual or entity holds absolute power. The video discusses the structure of power in Iran, where the Ayatollah holds ultimate authority, and the role of the president in setting the country's agenda.

💡Elections

Elections are the process by which people choose their government representatives. The video touches on the upcoming Iranian presidential election as a potential turning point for the country's policies and as a gauge of public sentiment towards the current regime.

💡Grand bargain

A grand bargain refers to a major diplomatic agreement or negotiation between multiple parties. The video suggests the possibility of such a bargain involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which could be influenced by the current political climate in Iran.

Highlights

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to inaugurate a dam and hydroelectric plant along the Iran-Azerbaijan border.

Concerns over potential war between Iran and Azerbaijan due to geopolitical tensions.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's statement on the importance of Azerbaijan’s border with Armenia.

The Kremlin's distraction and Azerbaijan's strategic move against Iran's 'red line'.

The tragic helicopter crash of President Raisi in East Azerbaijan due to poor visibility.

Speculations on foul play in the crash and the complexity of attribution in such incidents.

The prevailing theory suggesting the crash was due to bad piloting rather than sabotage.

The potential for Iran to exploit the crash for political gain and create a rally-around-the-flag effect.

The implications of the crash on Iran's political landscape and succession plans.

Raisi's role as a likely successor to Ayatollah Khamenei and the impact of his death on succession.

Iran's first vice president becoming acting president following Raisi's death.

The upcoming Iranian election and its potential to reflect or influence Iran's foreign policy.

The role of Western sanctions in limiting Iran's access to modern equipment and parts.

Zarif's statement blaming the United States for the tragedy due to sanctions on aircraft and aviation parts.

The potential impact of Iran's internal focus on its regional rivals and the possibility of a grand bargain among the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

The unpredictable nature of the situation and the potential for significant changes in the Middle East.

Transcripts

00:00

I know that it is tempting to  say—hey, it was “just” the president, 

00:05

not the Ayatollah, so none of this matters.

00:08

But that is oversimplifying things. It matters for here. 

00:12

And here. And here. 

00:14

Back to here, obviously. 

00:16

And here. And here. 

00:18

And here. And even here.

00:19

Oh, and it also matters for this. Let’s dive in. On May 19, 2024,  

00:26

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi took a trip to his country’s border 

00:30

with Azerbaijan.

00:32

It was an important visit to inaugurate a  

00:34

dam and hydroelectric plant built  along the countries’ river border.

00:39

And it was not too long ago that there  were concerns about a war between the two,

00:43

with Azerbaijan trying to  strengthen relations with Israel, 

00:47

and Iran having strong feelings about  Azerbaijan’s border with Armenia.

00:52

In fact, former Iranian Foreign  Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, 

00:56

who will play a recurring role in today’s story, 

00:59

once described any changes to that border as a red line for Iran.

01:04

Of course, the peacekeeping forces in that  region were Russian, and it turns out that 

01:09

the Kremlin was distracted elsewhere in the world. Long story short, Azerbaijan made its move, 

01:16

and Iran’s “red line” turned out to be a bluff.

01:19

Anyway, everything seemed to be back on  track with Iran’s relations with Azerbaijan,

01:26

and the trip itself was going normally enough,  

01:28

with Azerbaijan’s Office of the President  publishing these standard press release photos.

01:34

But with the event concluded, it was  time for Iran’s president to head home. 

01:39

And that is when the trouble began.

01:41

Returning to Iran aboard a Bell 212  helicopter like this one, it appears  

01:47

that the pilot struggled to navigate through a thick fog and, unable to see in front of him, 

01:53

he ultimately crashed the  chopper in East Azerbaijan, 

01:57

not far from the dam site.

01:58

Quick confusing geographical note: 

02:01

This is Azerbaijan. And this is also Azerbaijan, 

02:05

even though the two parts are disconnected  due to Armenia being in the middle. 

02:10

East Azerbaijan is a province in Iran, and it is south of the country of Azerbaijan 

02:16

even though its name would suggest  that it should be over here.

02:20

Anyway, the point is that  the crash occurred in Iran

02:24

and due to that thick fog, it  took about a half of a day for  

02:27

rescuers to locate the crash site and declare that Raisi had died.

02:31

In the immediate aftermath, the question  turned to whether foul play was involved.

02:37

Political scientists find such  operations particularly concerning 

02:42

because the absence of obvious  attribution makes it impossible  

02:46

to sustain a situation where no one wants to  take an opportunity that is in front of them.

02:52

Here, if so many countries do  not like Iran at the moment, 

02:56

someone will be tempted to  commit a sabotage operation 

02:59

given the default suspicion might fall elsewhere.

03:03

But that ironically makes the  likelier suspects tempted to attack, 

03:07

because there is no guarantee  it will trace back to them.

03:11

And we know from some recent  attacks on Iranian targets

03:15

that this can lead to some more  serious escalation concerns,  

03:19

even if a true powder keg has not yet exploded.

03:23

However, the prevailing theory at the moment  is that this is just a case of bad piloting—

03:30

if the Kobe Bryant crash from  2020 taught the public anything, 

03:34

it is that helicopters and fog do not mix.

03:37

Now, I realize this argument  is a little bit circular, 

03:40

but for the sake of world peace, it is fortunate that the crash  

03:44

happened in bad weather conditions and not under clear blue skies.

03:49

So, as interesting as the logic of  deterrence with imperfect attribution is, 

03:54

it will have to wait for another day.

03:56

There is, of course, always  the possibility that Iran uses  

04:00

the potential for sabotage to create a  crisis that was not actually happening.

04:06

After all, Iran’s population would  have a difficult time knowing for a  

04:11

fact that the accident was  truly due to pilot error.

04:15

The endgame intent there would be to  create a rally round the flag effect  

04:20

and build support for some type of offensive.

04:24

Indeed, it was not that long ago that Iran was in the middle of a back-and-forth with Israel—

04:30

though it seemed at the time that  Iran was actively looking for a  

04:34

way to end the turmoil, not escalate further.

04:38

Still, the accident plausibly traces  back to political decisions in the West.

04:44

The Bell 212 was produced 

04:46

in Texas and Quebec. I say 

04:49

“was” because production ended in 1999.

04:53

What this means is that Iran was operating  antiquated Western equipment without simple  

04:58

access to Western markets for replacement parts.

05:02

Enter Mohammed Javad Zarif once more. Best known in the West for his role  

05:07

in negotiating the Iran Deal almost a decade ago, 

05:11

he said in response to the crash that “One of the main culprits of [the] tragedy  

05:16

is the United States, which ... embargoed the  sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran.”

05:22

It is worth making a mental bookmark here, as the same sorts of sanctions are placed  

05:28

against Russia at the moment, and Russia  also continues to operate Western aircraft.

05:34

Those planes have not had any serious problems as  of yet, but they are a bunch of ticking timebombs.

05:42

Now, it would be easy to dismiss Raisi’s death as  politically irrelevant for the country of Iran.

05:48

After all, Iran is an autocracy,  and the real political power 

05:53

lies in the hands of the Ayatollah.

05:55

Then again, that perhaps overstates the  relationship. It might help to think of  

06:00

the president as sometimes setting Iran’s agenda,

06:03

deciding whom to meet with and whom not to, with the Ayatollah exercising final veto power.

06:10

Nevertheless, the crash raises both a  long-term and a short-term political  

06:15

power problems within the Islamic Republic.

06:18

In the long run, Raisi was a consensus  likely successor to Ayatollah Khamenei— 

06:25

and indeed, Khamenei himself took the president-to-Ayatollah path. 

06:29

Now, I say “consensus likely successor” because we are basically back to doing  

06:35

Kremlinology here, and I just got done  

06:38

talking about how ridiculous that is. Put differently, no one really knows. 

06:44

But either way, that future path  has been permanently blocked off.

06:49

And “long run” might be a bit misleading here too.

06:53

Quick survey of world leaders. For all that everyone makes about Putin’s age, 

06:58

or Trump’s age, or Biden’s age, 

07:02

Khamenei has them all beat at 85 years young. In fact,  

07:07

to give you a better sense of the situation, he was born before Germany invaded Poland.

07:13

Meanwhile, the short run may  bring about even greater changes.

07:18

According to Iran’s constitution, Iran’s first vice president becomes  

07:23

acting president once the Ayatollah gives  his consent—which he has already done. 

07:29

The successor’s politics appear  roughly similar to his predecssor’s, 

07:33

and he comes pre-sanctioned by Western leaders, so that is not the important story here.

07:40

Instead, the government has 50 days to run  another election to fill the position properly.

07:47

And, again, it would be easy  to dismiss the election of a  

07:51

somewhat powerless president who  caught up in an autocratic system,

07:56

but that is oversimplistic for two reasons.

07:59

First, we have discussed at  length in the context of the  

08:03

Russia-Ukraine War how election days  are frightening times for autocrats.

08:09

If popular sentiment turns  too far against the regime,  

08:13

the festive nature of election day itself turns  into a rallying cry for coordinated protests.

08:21

And unless you can get out in front of them, 

08:23

large protests can in turn result  in the fall of a government.

08:28

Indeed, the disputed results of  2009 Iranian presidential election  

08:34

led to just such protests across the  country, though the regime endured.

08:39

Second, we have also discussed before how  

08:42

autocratic leaders can use  elections as trial balloons.

08:47

If the Ayatollah wants to experiment with a risky  policy, he permits candidates with different  

08:52

perspectives to it make to the final ballot,  and allows the winner to try out that policy.

08:59

The most recent iteration of this  was the 2013 election of Hassan  

09:04

Rouhani and his subsequent  reengagement with the West.

09:09

That turned into the Iran Deal, and  with it, the final appearance for today 

09:13

of lead negotiator Foreign Minister Zarif.

09:17

Nevertheless, this plan failed from  Iran’s perspective when Trump became  

09:22

president and tore up the agreement in  fulfillment of his campaign promises.

09:28

The Rouhani approach consequently  fell out of favor in Tehran,  

09:32

and the pendulum swung back the other way

09:34

with the 2021 election of Raisi.

09:37

Raisi was a hardliner, known by his  detractors as the “butcher of Tehran” 

09:42

for his role in the 1988 execution  of thousands of political prisoners, 

09:47

on the order of Ayatollah Khomenei.

09:49

His time in office saw a strengthening  of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” against  

09:54

West and Western-aligned parties in the region,

09:58

with alleged increased proxy support 

10:00

to Hamas, Hezbollah, 

10:03

the Syrian government, and the Houthis 

10:05

as a part of Iran’s broader conflict  with Irael and Saudi Arabia.

10:10

Never mind that Iran is perennially on the  verge of building its first nuclear weapon. 

10:16

Forget Mossad, 

10:17

you would be forgiven to think that Amazon  was responsible for the whole situation.

10:22

Aside from that, Iran has also played a  key role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 

10:27

supplying a large number of Shahed drones for  Russian use on targets deep inside the country.

10:34

The impending election will therefore be  a surprise referendum on those policies— 

10:39

and autocracies do not like surprises.

10:42

Of the contentious policies, 

10:45

Russian military assistance  is the least likely to change. 

10:49

It brings in tons of money and is in part  what funds the rest of Iran’s operations.

10:54

Plus the Kremlin took a proactive approach here, 

10:57

first posting condolences Monday morning  on the Kremlin’s official website, 

11:02

and followed by a phone call  to Iran’s acting president.

11:06

That said, a step back from any segment of  the Axis of Resistance is not likely either.

11:12

The only way that might arise is if turnout  and vote numbers break so heavily against  

11:18

the status quo policy that the government feels  that it is necessary to calm domestic tensions.

11:25

Still, there may be some fleeting  benefits for the West there.  

11:29

Security forces in Iran can  only do so much at once.

11:34

And, yes, there is some division between  those overseeing the situation at home and  

11:39

those overseeing the situation abroad, but  the short-run demand for security at home

11:46

will take away some level of the focus abroad.

11:49

The question is whether any of Iran’s  regional rivals can do anything of note 

11:54

with that window of opportunity.

11:56

Perhaps the most intriguing  possibility there is the  

12:00

first steps of a grand bargain among the  United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

12:06

The State Department was already spending  much of its bandwidth on that project, 

12:11

with multiple visits to the  key players in question.

12:14

But Israel’s offensive into  Rafah as a part of the Gaza  

12:17

War will remain a major stumbling block there—

12:21

though the Israeli domestic politics on the entire  situation is about to reach a boiling point, 

12:27

and any serious movement may have  to wait for a new prime minister.

12:31

Suffice to say that the Gods of  International Relations chose an  

12:35

interesting time for a helicopter to crash.  And as usual for these sorts of breakpoints,

12:42

there is a high probability that not much happens 

12:45

and a low probability that a  whole ton of stuff happens, 

12:49

with not much room in the  middle for an average outcome.

12:53

If you want to know more about the  broader conflict in the Middle East, 

12:57

check out this playlist I  have dedicated to the subject.

13:00

And if you enjoyed this video, please like,  

13:03

share, and subscribe, and I will  see you next time. Take care.