EP-097 丁学良：中美交流的历史性赤字 | 丁学良 | 中国经济 | 中美关系 | 布林肯 | 留学生 | 川普 | 贸易战 | 特朗普 |

Hello everyone, welcome to the Bumingbai Podcast. I am the host Yuan Li.

In August 1949, on the eve of the founding of the Communist Party of China,

Mao Zedong published the famous commentary "Farewell, Leighton Stuart",

marking a historic deficit in Sino-US relations.

Since then, the relationship between the two countries has It was

not until Nixon's visit to China in 1972 that the relationship between the two countries began to thaw.

Over the past 50 years, Sino-US relations have had ups and downs

, but the economic, trade, academic and cultural exchanges between the two countries have not been interrupted.

However, in recent years, Sino-US exchanges have once again experienced a historic surge. Deficit:

The number of international students from the United States to China dropped

sharply . In 2022, there were only 350. They rebounded to 700 by the end of 2023.

The number of Chinese studying in the United States also began to decrease.

The economic and trade relations between the two countries also cooled significantly.

In 2023, Mexico replaced China as the largest source of imports for the United States. Foreign

data released by the Pew Research Center on May 1 showed that

81% of Americans hold a negative view of China

, of which 43% held a very negative view of China.

In 2006, only 29% of Americans held a negative view of China. Negative views

China does not have reliable data in this regard

, but several of China’s most successful movies at the box office in recent years

are about the Korean War,

that is, movies about the war between China and the United States.

Why will the exchanges between China and the United States once again enter a historic deficit

in the future ? Will it continue to get worse?

What impact will this deficit have on the relations between the two countries and the two countries themselves?

In this issue, we invited political sociologist Ding Xueliang

to share his observations and insights.

Ding Xueliang is an emeritus professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

. In 1984, he went to study in the United States and

received his doctorate from Harvard University in 1992.

He once worked in an American think tank.

His main research areas include comparative modernization

, globalization, international competition

, public governance, the political economy of transformed societies, etc.

His major works include

"For and Against the Chinese Model" and China’s economy will rise again.

Hello, Mr. Ding. Hello

, hello. Hello. Hello. Hello

. Your dress looks very good today.

It’s very suitable for the camera.

This dress is very memorable. I was

rummaging through boxes and cabinets to find this one

for this show.

This piece of clothing was from the summer of 1988

when I was a PhD student at Harvard University.

In order to commemorate the tenth anniversary of China's reform and opening up

, the MIT student union

invited me to give a report

through the Harvard student union.

After the report was completed,

I was given this T-shirt. When I

gave the report at that time,

the enthusiasm of the audience's enthusiasm

for the development of Chinese students,

that kind of emotion that burst out immediately,

is like recalling a century ago.

This year is my 40th year

to study in the United States.

There are not many 40-year

anniversaries in life

, right,

because I remember very clearly

that it was August 29, 1984, when I left Beijing.

It was the first time in my life that I took a plane

and left China for the United States

. And I remember

August 30, which was very impressive.

After I arrived in the United States,

I received three very important invitations within

a week. I remember

how dynamic

the exchanges between the United States and China were at that time. One invitation was that Harvard University invited me to attend a seminar,

and we were

the organizers

. Everyone knows that MacFarquhar, the

world's number one authority on the Chinese Cultural Revolution, whose Chinese name is Ma Ruode, is one of my mentors

who has passed away.

He invited me to attend a seminar at Harvard.

The second invitation

came from Princeton. The person who invited me to the International Studies Center of the university

is still alive

because he is about the same age as me.

He studies the relationship between three major countries.

One is China,

the other is Soviet Russia, such as the Soviet Union, Russia

, and Japan.

He is fluent in three languages

. The language genius

asked me to attend a very important seminar at

the Princeton International Center.

So what about the third invitation?

Now that I think about it, it’s basically

like a dream.

I received an invitation from the U.S. State Department.

There is a very senior researcher in the U.S. State Department.

He represents the U.S. State Department.

It is this Debut Secretary who

invited me to Washington to have a discussion

with him. I am the Deputy Secretary of State

who came to study.

I was surprised

when I received this invitation.

He asked What are you doing?

Oh, I was very nervous at the time.

My spoken English is so broken now.

Then I went to the U.S. State Department

to talk to such a high-ranking official.

I am not a diplomat , and I received

some so-called revolutionary education in China

before I went abroad.

After going to the United States, you have to pay attention

to being influenced by the United States.

When you go abroad, you have to pay attention to spies and so on.

There is a lot of revolutionary education.

So when I went to Washington,

I was very surprised.

I brought my passport and

my student ID.

I brought all the papers with me

because I thought the State Council would be fine.

Then when I arrived at the gate of the State Council,

I was surprised that

no one checked my documents

and then asked me if I had an appointment.

I said yes. What time, what time?

I think who called me

, and then he took a piece of paper and

looked at it.

He said yes. He said you go in. He

didn’t even look at the ID and let me go to the U.S. State Department

to talk about the issue at that time. The United States is very concerned about

you, the best-educated people in China

, and you have also experienced China’s Cultural Revolution

and many movements before the Cultural Revolution

, including earth-shaking things,

because of their background to me. ) I have checked

and I know

what my situation was like when I was a child. I came from a rural area.

His question

focuses on the exchanges between the United States and China.

In addition to high-level diplomacy,

the knowledge of a young man like you From the molecular point of view,

what else can the United States do more

and get a positive response from China?

I made a lot of specific suggestions at that time,

including two suggestions.

I was studying in the United States at the time. It didn’t last long.

I just listened.

What is one thing

that resonates with me the most ? First, when you provide scholarships

to students from China,

you must pay attention to

the Chinese government-funded projects of the Ministry of Education.

They give priority to students majoring in science and engineering,

but China The government

basically doesn’t give priority

to students from the United States studying social sciences.

So if the United States wants to fund Chinese students,

it must fund social sciences.

I was talking about China’s science and technology at that time

. In fact, there is a huge gap between

China’s science and technology

and that of the United States.

The gap in China’s social sciences is even greater. If

there is no funding from the United States in this field , then the opportunity

to study social sciences and get a doctorate in the United States

is very slim in China.

This is the first important thing I mentioned.

The second important thing is what is it

now? For international students from mainland China who come to the United States,

if they are sponsored by the Chinese government,

I have heard a lot of these very negative remarks

because China was relatively poor at that time. They

paid more than 300 US dollars per month

and deducted part of the money for medical insurance.

Under this situation,

Chinese government-sponsored international students

can only live in the poorest and worst places. If these students

stayed in such an environment after

spending several years in the United States,

even if they were not affected by crime or violence,

their impression of the United States would be a mess.

Then the State Department officials would understand very well after hearing this.

He said that some of our cities in the United States

are so-called inner cities,

which are the central parts of old cities.

He said that many of our middle class have left and

are like shabby areas.

We know these situations.

But you can't let Chinese students come to the United States

with such an impression and then return to China. Their

impression of the United States will be a mess.

You can organize some groups in the summer

and don't spend too much money to get a bus.

Just take them. Go to monumental places in America

and let them see that

there are some really amazing things in America. Let them see

and let them remember.

Let them leave those impressions of America that are very worthwhile.

Except the places where they did a terrible job

are also part of America

. But that It’s not all about the United States.

At that time, I felt that I also made some realistic remarks about

the exchanges between the United States and China.

What you said really made

me sigh with emotion.

The relationship between China and the United States is very, very different

now than in the 1980s.

Hello everyone, I am Yuan Li

There are dozens of hours of careful preparation and production

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Bumingbai.net.

I would like to ask a question.

I also said in this introduction that from the data,

the exchanges and cooperation between China and the United States

are in There has been a very obvious decline in recent years.

When do you think this situation started

and what caused it?

Because before this, it had a peak.

Before this peak, there was also a twists and turns.

Just like you said, there are still ups and downs,

but The general trend is upward. When will it

reach its peak?

In my observation, it probably reached

its peak in 2008, 2009, and 2010.

Of course, those of us who study China and observe China know that

this is the most important reason

. The peak at that time was because of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

In the years before the Olympics,

Chinese officials used all channels

, including the channels of overseas Chinese

, including the so-called old friends of the Chinese,

to expand the doors or windows of China's opening to the outside world.

Whether it’s a trail,

a front door, or a back door,

this thing left a very deep impression on me

because from 2005 to 2008,

as you know, I was

appointed by the Carnegie Foundation of the United States

to work on the project as a representative of Beijing.

It is the challenge of globalization to US-China relations.

Where is my project? You are very familiar with

it. The Friendship Hotel

receives various people from the West almost every day,

including academics, media,

diplomats, and business people. Of course

, it occasionally receives some exchange students,

so

I think it was the peak during that period.

After the peak in 2009 and 10,

there was a slow decline

, but not a sharp decline.

The real sharp decline was in the following years

. In the following years,

of course, we have to

put aside the epidemic of more than three years, because there is nothing we can do about it.

Because of the epidemic for more than three years,

people like us have lost

the right to move freely, not to mention foreigners.

Putting aside the fact that

it had been declining significantly for more than three years

before the epidemic , one of our hopes

was that after the strict epidemic prevention was lifted,

just like China's economy, many people were hoping

for a rebound and recovery.

So now it obviously looks like

China's economy has not risen as sharply as people expected

after the epidemic prevention and control was lifted,

and the exchanges between the United States and China

have not shown this momentum.

This is a very regretful thing.

You said you want to ask from When did it start

? According to my observation , it has been declining continuously

since 2010.

And this continuous decline soon

reached an extremely serious critical point

, that is, in 2018,

the trade war between the United States and China broke out

. It suddenly dropped sharply. Before this, China

already had many policies

, but the United States came out with these policies under Trump. The treatment

was dramatic, and communication

suddenly entered winter.

This is a result of the joint efforts of the decision-makers of both sides,

isn't it? Because before Trump started the trade war,

the United States had a lot of complaints about China.

We all know this

, but most of those complaints came from

the education and academic circles, and a small number came from

the media. Of course, the media complained the most,

but At that time, U.S. government officials also complained

, but their complaints at that time

were based on the expectation

that their complaints would elicit a positive response from Chinese officials,

and then the complaints from China would be eliminated.

Those measures, practices

, or rules and regulations that

are not conducive to exchanges between the two sides

. After Trump started the trade war in 2018, the dissatisfaction, resentment , and complaints

from the United States that had been accumulated for many years

exploded out. What

impressed me very deeply was that when the two sides were quarreling

, for example, Chinese diplomats in the United States,

whether in Washington or in several other cities,

had to leave their offices in the city center

within a few miles, which was OK (ok)

but beyond. If you go beyond those miles, you must report it first,

and then China will be very angry. Officials

think that this is very detrimental to the activities of Chinese diplomats in the United States.

Then American officials will say

that China has been doing this to us for decades.

In fact, The U.S. has

begun to treat these things as equals, right, and

demands reciprocity. But in the past,

when the U.S. was too embarrassed to say this, Trump

slowly started to say all the things he had said before.

Then this relationship will no longer work

, and what I said before about the United States

, because what we are talking about today is that we are the United States and China

. In fact, it is not only the United States,

but also Europe, including the Asia-Pacific region, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.

They also have similar complaints.

China probably started from In 2015,

maybe this website started in 2014.

Basically, the outside world saw

what we talk about decoupling. Decoupling refers to

the decoupling of economy, trade and technology

. But on the Internet, this decoupling

is far ahead of the post-economic, trade and technology.

This also makes it

very, very difficult

for students, scholars, etc.

from the United States, Europe,

or the outside world in the Asia-Pacific region to get used to it after arriving in mainland China,

because it has nothing to do with outside friends or relatives. connect

It becomes basically impossible

, so these complaints

have erupted like a volcano

in 2018.

Chinese decision-makers expressed their hope to strengthen exchanges between the two sides

and expressed their willingness to invite 50,000

American teenagers in the next five years.

Go to China for exchange and study . However, there will still be only 700

American students in China in 2023.

In 2018, this number was still more than 11,000.

Do you think this is why there has been a sudden drop in the number of American students willing to come to China?

We all know that in In the United States,

you ask those American youths, whether they are Asian or non-Asian,

no matter which ethnic group they are,

to make them spend so much energy and time to come to China.

Even if they receive part of the funding

, they still have to have additional funds. In addition to the cost of his own

time, why did he come to China

? Either he is very positive about you emotionally, likes you here

, or is even fascinated.

There is another reason that is more important than this reason,

which is his own studies

and employment after studies. Is it an important investment

? If China's economy becomes better and better

and more open to the outside world

, then the economic, technological, and cultural channels between the United States and

China will become wider and wider in the future . Then these young people will come to China.

I don’t think people who come here to study and exchange are

the kind of tourists who

come for a week or two and then leave. I think they come to China for at least a semester

or even an academic year or even two or three years.

Why do they invest so much?

Either there is hope in the future, that is,

because he has made such an investment in China

, he will be rewarded for the growth of his young people.

But since 2016,

what I have met is the United States, Canada, Australia, and

Europe. Young people

, I say, young people from the age group of 20 to 35

are increasingly less optimistic about the return on their investment in China. This

is because American students and young people want to come to China

unless their family’s economic situation is very good

and these young people The person himself is also willing to invest his financial resources

in exchanges in China.

Otherwise, he will have to obtain a lot of funding from outside the family.

We all know that in the United States, there are many foundations in the United States and

exchange scholarships in good universities in the United States. Scholarship)

This fellowship is this scholarship,

what is it, Program (project), there are many

, but the United States does not only deal with China,

it deals with so many countries,

why is it able to sponsor (fund)

if it is not related to it? Provide funds to support these young people

, and it is not just a small number,

and it is not a short-term but medium- to long-term support for them to come to China.

There must be a strong driving force behind

this. At least part of this strong driving force is political. I have a positive expectation

that China is not my enemy.

We sponsor our young people from the United States to come to China

for the sake of future friendly cooperation.

In recent years, this positive attitude has been

basically wiped out. Isn’t this the case? You didn’t

see it at all. There was an article in the New York Times today.

The author is an associate professor at Princeton University.

He just said something above. He said that in the United States, especially in Washington,

as long as you add Chinese in front of anything you say,

the other party will immediately speak. It makes me very nervous

. There is so much negativity in politics

. These problems are definitely not entirely attributed to

Trump alone. It is not like this.

Trump’s contribution in this regard is definitely not attributed to him.

There are many American mainstream media analyzing

what positive or negative things they have done in the past four years.

There is one sentence that impressed me so deeply.

If Trump still leaves a legacy

that will not be abandoned by future generations,

there is only one sentence. That is, he has adopted

a different policy towards China than before.

This may be the most important legacy he left behind.

We can see clearly now that the

Biden administration has actually inherited the Trump administration’s China policy

. The direction is the same

, and now China policy is

the easiest issue for the two parties in Congress to reach consensus.

I would also like to ask you about the Chinese decision-makers who want to invite 50,000 Americans to China.

This reminds me of China in 1984.

Inviting 3,000 Japanese youths to visit China.

At that time, we all watched a lot of news footage on TV.

It was very, very enthusiastic.

You can say that it was the most eager era for China to develop relations with the world.

I would like to ask this decision-making team. Now they suddenly hope The two sides have strengthened exchanges

, but why does it seem that the United States has not responded strongly to this call?

This is something we pay close attention to

and need to collect enough information to explain why this is the case.

In my observation, it is because

China has now proposed a formal One of the goals

proposed

is that 10,000 American students will come here every year in five years.

But Blinken said it when he visited China not long ago.

If you really want more American young people to come to China,

you should In what aspects should you consider

improving China's current practices, regulations

, or specific obstacles

? If you don't solve these problems, if

you just put forward a goal, there is nothing you can do.

We all know that the United States is different from China.

If it is the United States. It is proposed that

in the next five years, not 50,150,000

Chinese students will be welcomed to the United States.

Even if Chinese students are not willing to come to

the United States , as long as a group of political party organizations in China arranges it,

it will be solved immediately.

However, American students, the United States government, and

this American university Fortunately,

it can't make American students do things

they don't want to do.

This is the crux of the problem.

It's what Blinken said.

You must think about why they are unwilling to come. Let

me talk about what Blinken said at the time. What's happening

is that in April

he said that if China wants to attract more Americans to come,

his best way is to create conditions

that allow academic activities to develop and progress anywhere,

to discuss ideas freely and openly,

to have access to a wide range of information, and to facilitate travel.

Confident

in the safety and security and privacy of participants,

I would like to ask

if you think it is possible for Beijing to make these changes.

There are no significant signs yet

that they are going to make these changes.

I think small changes are possible,

but on a large scale. To make this change,

it must be

the central government in Beijing and an extremely important decision can be made.

Otherwise, no local government

can change this situation. It is impossible.

This is a national institutional problem.

Of course, we will know that

China Whether it is a teaching institution,

a foreign exchange institution, a cultural institution,

a science and technology institution,

or even a religion, art, etc.,

if the highest level of China proposes a goal,

they will definitely try their best to achieve it. The numbers are filled up

, but I don’t care

whether there is any actual effect.

You have to know that in China

, only the highest level proposes a numerical goal.

This numerical goal can always be exceeded , but in fact,

I don’t care whether it really has such an effect.

You don’t have this kind of confidence.

Are you willing to look ahead to

the best and worst possibilities for Sino-US exchanges in the next five or ten years? And

what impact will they have on Sino-US relations

and the two countries themselves?

This is A very, very, very important, profound

or meaningful issue.

We are now looking at it in the current time frame.

If China can

implement what Blinken said during his visit to China

in the second half of this year or within the next year and a half.

Solve the problems that are relatively easy to solve first among obstacles.

For example, can we allow students from the United States to build

facilities after they

come to China , or the reading rooms they use

, or the Facilities and equipment they use, etc.

Just like some very important companies

and manufacturers in China and foreign-funded manufacturers

can I think this can be done

smoothly through external networks.

For example, every university, especially important universities,

will approve a conference room if dozens of American students come to

exchange students.

They have to communicate with the outside world

in a room.

They

only allow them to communicate here. After all, you still have to show that you have this understanding or support. I would like to say

that the obstacles that will be raised by Blinken

in the second half of this year or next year

are to identify three first. There are three basic solutions that are relatively easy to solve.

Then your sincerity comes out because

most of the young people

in the United States who have been in the United States are relatively open.

If they have heard anything

or read anything negative about China

before, If

he had not encountered this kind of reality when he came to China,

they would have quickly changed their previous negative impression

. They were afraid that when they went to China,

they would find that it was worse than what they heard outside, and

the people behind would not come over,

right? You're right.

I've been telling you that in the United States,

there is no institution that can force American students to do things they don't want to do.

Another example

is that the Chinese website includes those about China overseas.

The United States is now unfriendly to international students from China.

Then What about visa rejections, etc.

For your program, I went to consult

someone who specializes in this exchange. Statistics said

that last year, the number of mainland Chinese students who were denied visas in the United States

was 1 in 4,250 . That is 1 in 4,250

that was obtained by the United States last year.

The proportion of Chinese students who have visas

but are refused entry when entering the country

is one in 4,250,

which is actually a very small

proportion.

So if you talk about reciprocity,

the conditions in

China are not as good as those in the United States in many aspects, but

you just can't fully Equivalent

, but your gap cannot be too big.

When I came to the United States to study from China,

many conditions in China were very poor, very poor, very poor.

But at that time, whether you were people like us who went abroad to

introduce China to foreigners

, or When people from abroad come to China,

they have very optimistic expectations.

We are sincere.

We do not go to foreign countries to confuse foreigners.

We all know that

there are many problems in China today

, but China today is much more open than yesterday and the day before yesterday.

China will definitely be more open tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Do

you really think so? Is it true

that China will be more open tomorrow and the day after tomorrow?

That was

when I came to the United States to study in 1984.

I had this confidence. Did

you think so before

? Do you still have the confidence now?

No,

I can't do anything now.

I can't do anything now.

Just say that

today's China is better than yesterday. The day before yesterday

, it's a big deal. The epidemic may be better than last year.

I can't think of other aspects of

epidemic prevention and control.

You ask this question. What kind of consequences will it cause in the future?

I think the consequences will be very, very, very

high, and the cost will be very, very high.

Because when I read or do research and the professor summarized it,

we all know

that it happened in the US-China exchanges after 1972.

Once you understand their backgrounds,

you will be very surprised to find out about

the Americans who played a very important role.

In Boston,

I often found that

people took the initiative to come to us, international students from the mainland,

and ask about where my parents

were in China before 1949. What are China doing?

Some people say

what my grandparents are doing in China.

You know how much influence this family has on future generations.

I gave a lot of examples of people,

such as Blumenthal , who played a very important role

in the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China.

Lumenthal, Secretary of Commerce,

is so good to China

. Why is it

because he is an American Jew ?

Why is George W. Bush so friendly to China ? Why