Dem Super Tuesday REVOLT: Uncommitted, Adam Schiff Shouted Down

Breaking Points
6 Mar 202428:40

Summary

TLDRThis video discusses the surprising results of the Democratic primary on Super Tuesday, where Joe Biden faced significant opposition from the 'uncommitted' vote across several states. The hosts analyze the strong performance of the 'uncommitted' and protest votes against Biden's policies, particularly his stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict. They dissect the implications of this voter dissatisfaction, especially among young voters, and how it could impact Biden's reelection prospects. The video also touches on the changing political landscape, with shifts in voter demographics and the potential realignment of traditional party allegiances.

Takeaways

  • 😲 Unexpectedly strong protest votes against Joe Biden from Democrats in several state primaries, including nearly 30% in Minnesota going for 'uncommitted' or other candidates.
  • 😡 Young voters and those opposing Biden's stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict were a major driving force behind the protest votes.
  • 🤷‍♂️ Biden did not give a victory speech on Super Tuesday, possibly to avoid facing protesters or difficult questions.
  • 🗳️ Even in states like California where establishment candidates prevailed, there were vocal protests and disruptions during their events.
  • 📉 Concerning signs for Biden's re-election prospects, with declining support among key demographics like Hispanic, Black, and young voters.
  • 🌍 The protest votes were driven by widespread dissatisfaction with Biden's policies, particularly regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict.
  • 🗣️ Democrats are struggling to address this dissent, with rhetoric shifts but no substantial policy changes so far.
  • ⚖️ A growing sentiment, even among Biden's 2020 voters, that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
  • 🔁 Establishment figures still downplaying or dismissing the concerns of protesters, risking further alienation.
  • 🚩 These results serve as major warning signs for Democrats about enthusiasm and turnout challenges in the general election.

Q & A

  • What were the key results from the Democratic primaries discussed in the script?

    -Some notable results discussed were Joe Biden losing American Samoa to a relatively unknown candidate Jason Palmer, a significant 'uncommitted' protest vote against Biden across several states like Minnesota (almost 30%), North Carolina (13.3%), Massachusetts (around 15%), Colorado (around 20%), and Oklahoma (around 19%), and Biden's poor performance among young and Hispanic voters in places like South Texas.

  • Why did the Minnesota governor attribute the strong 'uncommitted' vote to Biden's stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict?

    -The Minnesota governor stated that the 'uncommitted' voters were deeply concerned about the situation in Gaza and wanted to be heard on finding a lasting two-state solution and a ceasefire, indicating that Biden's policies on the Israel-Gaza conflict were a significant factor driving the protest vote.

  • How did the panelists interpret the 'uncommitted' protest vote against Biden?

    -The panelists viewed the strong 'uncommitted' vote as an extraordinary rebuke of Biden's policies, particularly on the Israel-Gaza conflict, from young voters and Democrats who had supported him in 2020. They saw it as a clear message that Biden's stance on Gaza was unacceptable to a significant portion of the Democratic base.

  • What impact did the panelists believe the protest vote could have on Biden's prospects?

    -The panelists suggested that the protest vote could affect Biden's turnout, margins, and potential for third-party challenges in the general election. They saw it as a warning sign that Biden's policies were alienating a crucial segment of young Democratic voters whose support he had relied on in 2020.

  • How did the panelists view Adam Schiff's performance in the California primary?

    -The panelists noted that despite being an establishment figure and Biden ally, Adam Schiff secured a sizable portion of the vote in California. However, they pointed out that the Israel-Gaza conflict did not seem to be a central issue in that particular primary race.

  • What did the panelists make of the trends among Hispanic voters in South Texas?

    -The panelists discussed how a significant protest vote emerged for Armando Perez Serat, a Democratic candidate critical of Biden, particularly among Hispanic voters in South Texas. They saw this as part of a broader shift in the region towards more Republican-leaning tendencies, driven partly by issues like immigration and inflation.

  • How did the panelists view the response from Biden's administration to the protest vote?

    -The panelists believed that while the Biden administration had adjusted its rhetoric in response to the protest vote, with officials like Kamala Harris using more forceful language, the underlying policies towards Israel and Gaza had not substantially changed. They saw the rhetorical shift as an attempt to gaslight voters rather than address their concerns.

  • What did the panelists suggest about the changing dynamics between Democrats and pro-Israel lobbying groups like AIPAC?

    -The panelists discussed how AIPAC's opposition to a relatively pro-Israel Democratic candidate in California suggested that the lobbying group was taking a more hardline stance, potentially moving away from bipartisanship towards aligning more closely with Republicans, similar to the trajectory of the NRA.

  • How did the panelists view the significance of the protest vote in the broader context of the Democratic Party's future prospects?

    -The panelists saw the protest vote as a clear indication that a significant portion of the Democratic base, particularly young voters, had become radicalized on the Israel-Gaza issue and viewed Biden's policies as complicit in genocide. They suggested that ignoring or dismissing these concerns could have severe consequences for the party's ability to mobilize crucial voting blocs in future elections.

  • What role did the panelists believe mainstream media played in shaping perceptions around the protest vote?

    -The panelists criticized mainstream media outlets like MSNBC for dismissing or mocking concerns about issues like immigration, which were driving the protest vote in certain regions. They saw this as indicative of a disconnect between establishment media narratives and the realities facing voters on the ground.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ Biden's Underwhelming Performance in the Democratic Primary

The paragraph discusses Joe Biden's poor performance in the Democratic primary, particularly his loss in American Samoa to a relatively unknown candidate, Jason Palmer. It highlights Biden's lack of a victory speech and the embarrassment caused by voters opting for the 'uncommitted' option across several states, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with Biden and his handling of the war in Gaza. The results from Minnesota are analyzed, where nearly 30% of voters chose 'uncommitted' or Dean Phillips, signaling strong opposition to Biden's policies, especially among younger voters.

05:00

📊 Analyzing the Protest Votes Against Biden

This paragraph delves into the protest votes against Biden across various states, including North Carolina, Massachusetts, Colorado, and Oklahoma. It examines the significant percentages of voters who chose 'uncommitted' or supported candidates like Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, interpreting these votes as a direct rebuke of Biden's policies. The results in California are also discussed, where establishment candidate Adam Schiff secured a substantial vote share, while Barbara Lee and Katie Porter underperformed, suggesting that the Middle East issue did not weigh heavily in this particular primary.

10:00

⚖️ The Shifting Landscape of Public Opinion on Israel and Palestine

The paragraph focuses on the changing public opinion regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, particularly among Democratic voters. It highlights polls showing that a majority of Biden's 2020 voters believe Israel is committing genocide, indicating a significant shift in attitudes. The paragraph discusses the disconnect between Biden's long-standing pro-Israel stance and the views of his party's base, which is becoming increasingly critical of Israel's actions. It also mentions protests and disruptions faced by Democratic politicians like Adam Schiff, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, illustrating the intense backlash over their positions on the Israel-Palestine issue.

15:03

🇺🇸 The Shifting Political Landscape in South Texas

This paragraph examines the results from South Texas, particularly Cameron County, where a significant protest vote was cast for Armando Perez Serat, a Democratic candidate critical of Biden's policies. It discusses the cultural and demographic shifts occurring in the region, with traditionally Democratic strongholds turning Republican. The paragraph suggests that issues like inflation, immigration, and cultural conservatism have contributed to this shift, challenging the traditional assumptions about voting patterns in the area. The analysis also touches on the concerns expressed by Republican voters in Virginia regarding immigration, highlighting the national significance of this issue.

20:05

💰 AIPAC's Influence and the Dynamics of the Israel-Palestine Debate

The paragraph explores the influence of AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) in shaping the discourse on the Israel-Palestine conflict. It discusses the organization's significant financial resources and its efforts to target candidates who express even mild criticism of Israel, as seen in the case of David Min in California. The paragraph also touches on the potential shifts in AIPAC's strategy, drawing parallels with the NRA's transition from a bipartisan organization to a more partisan approach. Additionally, it mentions the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz to Washington, D.C., and the refusal of Republican Congressman Mike Johnson to meet with him, highlighting the complexities of the Israel-Palestine debate within the U.S. political landscape.

25:06

🌊 The Rising Tide of Youth Engagement and Dissent

The final paragraph emphasizes the growing engagement and dissent among young voters, particularly regarding issues like access to abortion and the overturning of Roe v. Wade. It highlights the surge in youth turnout that helped Democrats secure victories in special elections, underscoring the importance of addressing the concerns of this demographic. The paragraph warns against dismissing or underestimating the outrage among young people over issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict, suggesting that a mere rhetorical shift by the Biden administration may not be enough to appease them. It concludes by reiterating the significance of the results in Minnesota, which demonstrated the depth of opposition to Biden's policies among young voters.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Uncommitted Vote

The 'uncommitted vote' refers to voters who opted not to support any of the declared candidates on the ballot, instead choosing an 'uncommitted' option. In the context of this video, a significant portion of Democratic primary voters across various states, such as Minnesota and North Carolina, chose the uncommitted option, signaling widespread dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden's candidacy and policies, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

💡Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday refers to the day when the greatest number of U.S. states hold primary elections and caucuses, making it a crucial day in the presidential nominating process. In this video, the discussion centers around the results of the 2024 Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday, where President Biden faced significant opposition from the uncommitted vote and protest candidates across multiple states.

💡Gaza Conflict

The video frequently references the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which is a major point of contention among Democratic voters, particularly younger ones. Many voters expressed dissatisfaction with President Biden's handling of the situation and his perceived support for Israel's actions in Gaza, leading to a surge in the uncommitted vote and support for protest candidates advocating for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid.

💡Protest Vote

A 'protest vote' refers to voters casting their ballots not necessarily for a candidate they support, but as a means of expressing dissent or dissatisfaction with the established options. In this case, votes for lesser-known candidates like Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, as well as the uncommitted option, are considered protest votes against President Biden's policies and actions.

💡Generational Divide

The video highlights a significant generational divide in voting patterns, with younger voters being far more likely to cast protest votes or support the uncommitted option, reflecting their discontent with Biden's policies, particularly regarding Gaza. This divide is exemplified by instances such as one precinct in Minnesota where 80% of voters chose the uncommitted option, suggesting a stark contrast between the preferences of younger and older Democratic voters.

💡AIPAC

AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is a powerful pro-Israel lobbying group in the United States. The video mentions AIPAC's influence and the significant funding it provides to politicians who support its agenda, suggesting that this has historically discouraged politicians from criticizing Israel's actions. However, the surge in protest votes and shifting public opinion, particularly among younger voters, challenge this dynamic.

💡Ceasefire

A 'ceasefire' refers to a temporary cessation of hostilities or armed conflict. In the context of the video, many Democratic voters are calling for a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict in Gaza, as they perceive President Biden's policies as enabling or supporting Israel's military actions in the region. The demand for a ceasefire is a central point of contention between Biden and a significant portion of his voter base.

💡Genocide

The video mentions that a majority of Joe Biden's 2020 voters believe that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza, highlighting a significant shift in public perception regarding the conflict. The use of the term 'genocide' is a powerful condemnation of Israel's actions and suggests that many Democratic voters view Biden's support for Israel as complicity in what they consider to be a grave human rights violation.

💡College Campus

The video notes that President Biden has been avoiding campaigning on college campuses, likely due to the significant opposition he faces from younger voters regarding his policies on Gaza and other issues. The inability of a sitting Democratic president to campaign on college campuses is presented as a humiliating and concerning development, underscoring the depth of the generational divide and the potential impact it could have on Biden's electoral prospects.

💡Hispanic Voters

The video highlights the potential shift in voting patterns among Hispanic voters, particularly in South Texas, where a significant protest vote was observed for a candidate critical of Biden's policies. This shift is contextualized within the broader trend of traditionally Democratic strongholds in the region becoming more Republican-leaning, potentially due to cultural factors and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's stances on issues such as immigration and the economy.

Highlights

Joe Biden lost American Samoa's primary to Jason Palmer, a virtually unknown candidate who ran a humorous campaign, winning the territory's delegates.

The 'uncommitted' vote against Biden performed strongly across several states, with nearly 30% in Minnesota rejecting Biden's candidacy over his handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict.

The younger the precinct, the stronger the support for the 'uncommitted' vote, signaling a generational divide over Biden's Israel-Gaza policy.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz acknowledged voters' concerns over the 'intolerable' situation in Gaza and their demand for a ceasefire, stating the need to listen to these voters.

The high 'uncommitted' vote reflects widespread dissatisfaction with Biden's handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict, even among some Republicans according to polls.

A majority of Biden's 2020 voters now want the US to block weapons shipments to Israel, indicating a significant shift in the Democratic base's views on the issue.

Biden's stance on Israel seems outdated and disconnected from the changing dynamics within his party, where young voters are increasingly passionate about supporting Palestinian rights.

Democrats are struggling to campaign on college campuses due to protests over their stance on Gaza, a humiliating situation for the sitting president.

In California, establishment candidate Adam Schiff spent more money propping up a Republican opponent than his own campaign, fearing a head-to-head match against progressive Democrats.

The protests and voter dissatisfaction over Gaza are expected to be an ever-present problem for establishment Democratic politicians in the upcoming general election.

Biden's reluctance to change his policy on Israel, despite shifting public opinion within his party, suggests a disconnect that could impact voter turnout and his margins of victory.

The protest vote against Biden is not limited to Arab or Muslim Americans, but reflects a broader dissatisfaction among young Democratic voters, a crucial demographic for Biden's success.

In South Texas, a significant protest vote emerged for Armando Perez Serat, a Democrat critical of Biden's age and Israel policy, highlighting local concerns potentially changing Texas' electoral map.

The surge in young voter turnout, driven by outrage over issues like abortion rights, helped Democrats secure victories in recent special elections, suggesting dismissing their concerns could be costly.

AIPAC's heavy spending against a mildly critical Democratic candidate in California indicates a shift towards a more partisan Republican alliance, mirroring the NRA's trajectory.

Transcripts

00:00

Ryan uh let's talk about what happened

00:02

in the Democratic primary last night

00:03

because some of these results were

00:05

really interesting huge shout out to

00:07

American

00:08

Samoa yes American Joe Biden lost

00:11

American s Samoa to a guy who's

00:13

extraordinarily famous here in the

00:14

mainland on the mainland uh but other

00:18

otherwise he was embarrassed in a lot of

00:20

States uh by the uncommitted vote

00:23

basically across the country uh we do

00:25

not have a speech to show you from Joe

00:28

Biden because even though he is running

00:29

for real election he did not give a

00:31

super Tuesday victory speech instead he

00:34

uh kind of stared blankly out at a at a

00:37

crowd after mumbling that he would get

00:38

in trouble if he took questions it's

00:39

almost too painful a video to even

00:42

subject you guys to so we're not even

00:44

not even going to show it because it

00:45

would we that would make us complicit in

00:47

the elder abuse that is being uh dealt

00:49

out to Joe Biden not that I have any

00:50

sympathy for him given uh you know what

00:52

he's doing in Gaza right now so you kind

00:54

of kind of guess what he has coming to

00:56

him yet it's still kind of painful and

00:57

sad to watch that's for sure all right

00:59

so let let let's get to what the voters

01:00

are doing to them we can start in

01:02

Minnesota is put this put this first one

01:04

up here uh kind of a shocking to The

01:07

Establishment result in Minnesota with

01:10

close to 20% of the electorate uh uh

01:15

voting uncommitted this is a campaign

01:18

that had about a week to organize itself

01:20

and that that's on top of 8% for Dean

01:23

Phillips yes by the way so almost

01:25

30% just just between the two of those

01:28

against Biden uh people were say so they

01:31

spent about $5,000 over the course of a

01:33

week something like that to organize

01:35

this campaign organizers for that uh

01:38

campaign were telling me over over the

01:40

course of the week that they actually

01:41

expected to outperform Michigan because

01:44

the the phone banking that they were

01:45

doing was just landing on voter after

01:48

voter after voter who was telling them

01:50

uh no we're already uncommitted like it

01:53

basically it was an it was organic that

01:55

it spread from New Hampshire over to

01:57

Michigan and then in into Minnesota in

01:59

Ilan Omar's District which is number

02:01

five in Minnesota uh they'll win they'll

02:04

win at least a delegate they may win

02:06

three delegates at least across the

02:09

state that means the party process in

02:10

Minnesota is going to send at least

02:13

three people to Minnesota who will be

02:15

representing kind of a free Palestine

02:18

ceasefire and the war in Gaza vote huge

02:20

Somali Muslim population obviously

02:22

outside Minneapolis but there was also

02:24

this you know uh the correlation between

02:27

age and support for uncommitted was

02:29

basically one to one the younger a

02:31

Precinct was the stronger the support

02:33

was there was one Precinct that had

02:35

something like 80% for uncommitted that

02:38

must be a fun neighborhood so the the

02:40

governor addressed this uh we have a

02:43

clip of that let's let's roll Tim Waltz

02:45

Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz about

02:46

40,000 votes right now 20% of the vote

02:49

going to uncommitted and we've seen that

02:51

already in this Primary in um in

02:55

Michigan what message are voters in your

02:58

state trying to send to President Biden

03:01

and what do you want to see President

03:03

Biden do in

03:06

response yeah look they're engaged we're

03:09

really proud Minnesota civic

03:10

responsibility we have some of the

03:11

highest voter turnouts these are voters

03:13

that are deeply concerned as we all are

03:15

the situation in Gaza is is intolerable

03:18

um and I think trying to find a solution

03:21

a lasting two-state solution certainly

03:23

the president's mooved towards

03:24

humanitarian Aid and asking us to get to

03:26

a ceasefire that's what they're asking

03:28

to be heard and that's what they should

03:29

be doing uh we've gone through this

03:31

before and we know that now we make sure

03:33

we've got 8 months we start bringing

03:35

these uh folks back in we listen to what

03:38

they're saying uh that's a healthy thing

03:40

that's happening here but I would note

03:42

that uh that the former president uh

03:44

lost twice as many votes here in

03:46

Minnesota to Nikki Haley and I've seen

03:48

some of these exit polls out of North

03:50

Carolina and others 80% of folks said

03:51

they're not voting for him who voted for

03:53

Nikki Haley we'll get these folks back I

03:55

think it's take them seriously their

03:57

message is clear that they think this is

03:59

an intolerable situation and that we can

04:01

do more and I think the president's

04:03

hearing that all right let's bring back

04:05

Crystal and Sager into the conversation

04:07

uh Chrystal what do you make so not of

04:09

the not not only in Minnesota North

04:10

Carolina Colorado around the country

04:12

Minnesota had the strongest performance

04:14

for uncommitted but around the country

04:15

it was clear uh that there is like

04:18

widespread dissatisfaction uh with with

04:20

Biden and with his war effort what what

04:22

did you make of it yeah when you combine

04:24

uncommitted and keep in mind that not

04:27

all of these states had uncommitted on

04:29

the ballot um which is why you should

04:31

consider you know the votes for Maryann

04:33

and the votes for Dean and the votes for

04:35

uncommitted I think you should count all

04:36

of those as basically Biden protest

04:38

votes and also whatever other candidates

04:41

Jen and the other like unknown

04:42

candidates that popped up on some of

04:44

these ballots so quite significant um

04:46

the Minnesota performance is nothing

04:48

short of astonishing and I heard this

04:50

talking point over and over again on CNN

04:52

like oh sure Biden lost a few votes but

04:54

look at Nikki Haley eating into trump it

04:57

is a very different deal to to vote for

05:00

an actual candidate and also by the way

05:02

for it to be a lot of Democrats and

05:03

independents who are voting for that

05:05

actual candidate then to have voters

05:07

taking the time out of their day to show

05:11

up to directly say screw you and your

05:14

disgusting immoral policy Visa V Gaza I

05:17

mean that is extraordinary with no money

05:18

think of how much money Nikki Hy spent

05:21

there was almost literally no money

05:23

spent on this effort in Minnesota it

05:25

popped up in a week's time and

05:27

outperformed by percentage

05:30

what was done in Michigan so I think it

05:33

is absolutely extraordinary and I do

05:36

think that you have seen a rhetorical

05:39

shift from the Biden Administration

05:42

directly because of this uncommitted

05:44

protest vote so you saw you know kamla

05:47

Harris with some more strenuous language

05:49

backing basically the same policy but

05:51

you also see all of the Dem flax out

05:53

there instead of going back to oh well

05:55

Israel has a right to defend itself now

05:58

the line is well Biden is working day

06:00

and night to you know try to secure this

06:03

ceasefire and he hears them and he

06:05

agrees with them so basically trying to

06:07

Gaslight but you can see there has been

06:09

an impact and that they are feeling

06:11

pressure you couple that with the just

06:13

abject horror of the flower Massacre and

06:17

I think you do see that they are feeling

06:20

some kind of pressure from this movement

06:23

which will only continue and grow post

06:25

super Tuesday and once again the results

06:26

show this is not just a problem with

06:28

Arab American this isn't just a problem

06:30

with Muslim Americans or some other

06:32

narrow demographic group if you are a

06:34

Democrat and you want to win the

06:36

presidency of the United States once

06:38

again you need young people to show up

06:41

for you and not to stay home and young

06:44

people are sending you as loud and clear

06:46

a message as they possibly can that this

06:49

current posture viav Israel and Gaza is

06:52

utterly unacceptable and Biden wouldn't

06:54

have won without a pretty decent Surge

06:56

from young voters in 2020 I mean his

06:58

margins either yeah absolutely and one

07:02

second Ryan can you break down the other

07:04

states for everybody the

07:07

uncommitted yes because I know that we

07:09

have all the other states there do we do

07:11

we have the element that that we can put

07:12

up here all right so let yeah let's

07:15

let's run through these uh quickly so uh

07:18

there we've got North Carolina rocking

07:20

in at at 133% which is you know pretty

07:23

pretty strong performance at least as

07:25

strong as uh Michigan uh move move to

07:28

the next one we got

07:29

Massachusetts coming in at almost 10%

07:32

with another uh nearly 5% for Dean

07:35

Phillips uh move on to the Colorado

07:38

primary uh what eight almost 9% uh plus

07:42

then a handful you know so you're

07:44

looking at almost 20% kind of protest

07:46

votes with about 10% uh there and then

07:49

the Oklahoma primary uh almost 10% of

07:52

Oklahoma Democrats um saying uh un

07:55

uncommitted like end end this war and if

07:59

you know the if the Democratic party was

08:01

but also nine and N for Dean Phillips

08:03

and Marion Williamson yes right right

08:05

which it's also a protest vote at this

08:07

point yes and you know so if if the

08:08

party was an actual like power seeking

08:11

operation that ran rationally somebody

08:13

like the guy you just saw the Minnesota

08:14

Governor Tim Walls would he'd be the

08:15

nominee you know probably Waltz uh you

08:18

know to into into the white house

08:20

instead dad joke yeah do you like that

08:22

one no you loved it uh instead to

08:25

Crystal's Point all we're getting is

08:26

this kind of change in rhetoric and if

08:28

you boil down what their change in

08:30

rhetoric is it's we are not complicit in

08:32

this evil we are just too weak and

08:34

incompetent to stop it which is okay I

08:38

guess that makes us feel better about it

08:41

maybe but that's not much of a selling

08:45

point at

08:46

all well actually this is interesting

08:49

because in California here's

08:51

establishment darling Adam shiff uh if

08:54

we put B6 up on the screen the primary

08:56

this is a huge primary election in

08:58

California people know the high-profile

09:00

candidates uh Katie Porter Barbara Lee

09:04

uh now Steve Garvey actually did better

09:06

than Katie Porter and Barbara Lee's

09:09

margins here or their percentages here

09:11

put together uh so this goes to the

09:13

Jungle Primary runoff type situation

09:15

Adam Schiff secured 33% of the vote uh

09:19

I'm just curious Ryan Crystal sger what

09:21

your take is on uh you know with with

09:24

the Middle East weighing so heavily on

09:25

Democratic voters Minds Adam Schiff is a

09:29

Biden establishment Ally also a

09:32

conspiracy monger and weirdo but that

09:35

aside um I mean that's a it did not

09:38

weigh in here in this in this California

09:40

primary it's very it's very interesting

09:42

Barbara Lee you know uh fairing fairing

09:44

terribly I was actually in California

09:46

over over the

09:47

weekend talking to a voter uh who is his

09:51

his primary issue was uh anti-war and

09:53

later in the conversation he said I hope

09:54

Barbara Lee wins her re-election I was

09:56

like actually you know she's running for

09:58

Senate he's like what he's like no way

10:00

that's awesome that's that's that's so

10:02

cool it's like Barb Barbara Lee is so

10:04

screwed like this is like this is like

10:06

her base and he didn't even know uh that

10:08

she was running which goes to the

10:10

problem for anybody running in

10:12

California that it's just so insanely

10:14

expensive but Sager uh what do you make

10:16

of that well California obviously

10:18

basically a rigged you know electoral

10:20

system so like let's all be honest

10:22

around that uh especially with the

10:24

Dynamics that you just uh highlighted

10:26

also just to pick up on that we have a

10:28

saw here some of the protesters who were

10:30

interrupting Adam shiff and this goes to

10:32

the question of how that will play out

10:33

in the actual general election let's

10:36

take a listen to

10:37

[Applause]

10:45

that to thank you so as everybody could

10:49

see I mean this is going to be an

10:50

everpresent problem I think for many of

10:52

these establishment Democratic

10:54

politicians we covered previously on our

10:56

show about how Joe Biden is going to

10:58

like extensive lengths not to campaign

11:01

um and college campuses pretty

11:03

humiliating when the sitting Democratic

11:05

president you can't go to a college

11:07

campus Al honestly Ryan that may be why

11:09

he didn't do a victory speech last night

11:12

and they're just terrified as I

11:14

understand it they've been contracting

11:15

some thirdparty security service to try

11:18

and screen people before you go in I

11:20

mean once we've gotten to that point you

11:22

know thing things are not looking good

11:23

for you and it is humiliating because

11:25

you've not only got the votes in terms

11:26

of uncommitted but you've also got the

11:29

physical manifestation of that at every

11:31

public appearance that you make from

11:33

here on thus far so overall I mean I'm

11:36

just coming back to the same Trump issue

11:38

where crystal is Right many of those

11:40

people who voted in the primary are Dem

11:42

are just probably Democrats here though

11:44

you know we have a probably a bigger

11:46

problem just given the gap between like

11:49

the policy that would actually have to

11:50

happen to even get maybe half of these

11:52

people back in the door it's very likely

11:54

that he could if there is a fatal blow

11:57

in November there will be many many

11:59

reasons as to why that happened but it's

12:00

very likely we can trace a lot of it

12:02

back to here and to this right now yeah

12:05

a Democrat not being able to go to a

12:07

college campus is like a republican who

12:09

couldn't campaign in The Villages

12:11

Florida and and underscoring that point

12:13

if we could put up B3 and then Chris I

12:15

want to get your uh response to this

12:17

this the element B3 this polling that

12:19

shows that even among uh Republicans 30%

12:23

of Republicans want arms shipments

12:26

blocked uh to Israel but 6 62% of Voters

12:30

who supported Biden in 2020 want the US

12:34

to block weapons shipments to Israel uh

12:38

ceasefire and blocking weapons shipments

12:41

is not a divisive or controversial

12:44

position it is the overwhelming majority

12:47

position of democratic voters uh yet it

12:51

is in stark contrast to what the

12:53

president is actually doing

12:56

Crystal yeah that's exactly right and I

12:58

continue to bring this up but I am

13:01

struck by the poll that found that a

13:03

majority of Joe Biden 2020 voters say

13:06

Israel is committing a genocide I you

13:08

just

13:09

cannot possibly overstate the sea change

13:13

in American politics that has occurred

13:15

Visa the view of Israel and the view of

13:17

our relationship with regards to Israel

13:20

and so when you see you know the actions

13:22

of someone like Joe Biden who's been in

13:24

DC for 50 years and has this view of

13:28

Israel that d back you know hasn't

13:29

progressed since 1970 and whatever he

13:32

thought of it at the time the other

13:34

thing is that you know one of his

13:36

Ironclad Like rules of the road in

13:38

politics is you never lose by being too

13:41

pro Israel because you know there's much

13:44

more funding on that side I'm just not

13:45

trying to be an anti-semitic comment

13:47

it's just statement of reality given the

13:49

the funding behind APAC and how

13:50

influential that has been and how

13:52

comparatively I mean there's basically

13:54

no funding benefit to be gained on the

13:56

Palestinian side of the equation um and

13:59

also typically the people who vote on

14:02

that issue are the people who are most

14:05

vifer usly lock step for whatever it is

14:08

that Israel wants to do um that

14:12

particular Dynamic May well be changing

14:14

I think that's the piece that is

14:16

different that Biden and many other

14:19

Democratic politicians really haven't

14:21

accounted for that now you have this

14:24

very very impassioned and frankly

14:27

radicalized group of predominantly but

14:30

not exclusively young voters who are

14:32

voting directly on this issue and so I

14:36

think that's part of you know where the

14:38

disconnect and why they've been so slow

14:41

to even change the rhetoric with regards

14:43

to Israel and Palestine let alone they

14:45

still haven't changed the policy so this

14:48

is a massive issue that you know there

14:51

videos every day coming out of Kirsten

14:53

gillan's Town Hall you know so many

14:55

protesters there AOC getting chased out

14:57

of a movie theater because she won't

14:58

call it a genocide Adam shiff getting

15:00

shouted down at his own victory speech

15:03

every single Democrat is being held to

15:05

account for this monstrous abhorent

15:07

policy that again a majority of their

15:09

own party says makes them complicit in a

15:12

genocide so I think the political

15:14

landscape has completely flipped in a

15:16

way that many of these politicians

15:18

haven't accounted for um just to throw

15:20

on a couple things specifically about

15:22

California don't claim to be a political

15:24

expert in the ins and- outs of

15:25

California politics I do want to mention

15:27

Adam Schiff spent I think more money

15:29

propping up the Republican candidate

15:31

than he did even on his own campaign

15:33

because he wanted to make sure he wasn't

15:35

up against another Democrat in the fall

15:36

because he feels very confident of

15:38

course in California he can beat a

15:39

republican he wasn't so confident he

15:40

could beat say Katy Porter Barbara Lee

15:42

head-to-head the other thing is my

15:44

understanding based on you know the what

15:46

I've seen of the the messaging in that

15:48

race is that none of them really put

15:50

Gaza at the core of their messaging and

15:53

yes barbar Lee is seen as like you know

15:55

generally anti-war but she hasn't been

15:57

leading the charge in the way that say a

15:59

Rashida Talib or like an ilhan Omar has

16:02

and California also their uncommitted

16:05

vote um you know protest vote on super

16:07

Tuesday was one of the lower ones of the

16:09

states that actually went for whatever

16:11

reason I'm not really sure why and I

16:14

think it's also worth mentioning while

16:15

we're in California that both uh George

16:17

gasone in LA and Jose Garza in Travis

16:21

County which soccer you're obviously

16:22

very familiar with held on to their

16:24

seats in these pretty competitive

16:25

Democratic primaries uh not super close

16:28

either and that contrasts with the mood

16:30

of the country back in 2022 where it was

16:33

sort of like oh you know Democrats are

16:35

going to have to you attack to the

16:37

center in order to make up uh from this

16:40

backlash of 2020 well then dos came down

16:44

and now we're here and Israel happened

16:46

so I think there's just there's so much

16:48

going on with young voters in particular

16:50

for Democrats that if there's going to

16:52

be a wakeup call uh you would think the

16:55

results that are coming in showing you

16:57

know some some seriously alarming drops

16:59

and enthusiasm for Joe Biden that could

17:00

affect turnout could affect his margins

17:02

could affect third parties uh these

17:04

would be those red flags those warning

17:06

signs but Ryan there was a a glaring red

17:09

flag last night in American samawa in

17:11

the form of Jason Palmer Jason Jason

17:14

Palmer ran what is I think it's got to

17:16

be the coolest campaign uh ever uh so he

17:20

beat Biden for the delegates from

17:23

American Samoa uh congratulations to yes

17:26

Jason Palmer very very well known here

17:30

in the here in the mainland uh let's

17:32

let's play a little bit of the the case

17:34

that he made to American Samoan voters

17:37

I'm asking for your support and vote and

17:40

would love to talk to you about why I

17:42

believe I'm the best candidate for

17:44

American Samoa a beautiful and diverse

17:46

territory that needs much more attention

17:49

and support from our federal government

17:52

you're probably wondering who is this

17:54

Jason Palmer I've never heard of him

17:56

before well in the main M land I'm

17:59

actually very well known I mean I can I

18:01

can vouch for that

18:04

right that is the man as soon as I saw

18:07

I'm like Jason Palmer the man I don't

18:09

know if you saw Fox News call the race

18:12

um for Jason Palmer but Brett Bear was

18:14

really confused in the video he was like

18:16

I don't know who that is he's out of

18:18

touch he's out of touch Jason Palmer's

18:20

huge and Jason Palmer looks like a he's

18:23

a realtor in you know Suburban

18:25

Minneapolis or something he's got the

18:26

Martin Luther King spe in the background

18:30

it's just uh like if if you were

18:32

watching the video he really had a frame

18:33

picture of Martin Luther King giving his

18:34

American giving his I Have a Dream

18:36

speech behind him I mean it was just

18:38

perfect in so many ways Ryan yeah

18:40

incredible congratulations uh to to

18:42

Jason Palmer krisen Sager you voting for

18:44

him yeah maybe absolutely I'm gonna

18:47

write him in in the fall he's a very

18:49

well-known figure you know known about

18:51

him for years yeah he's big on Tik Tok I

18:54

think I don't know something like that

18:55

the Zoomers love him too good the kids

18:58

the love so good for Jason Palmer very

19:01

very exciting love love to love to see

19:03

it well Sager I want to toss this last

19:04

element to you um in the block this is

19:07

more results out of Texas again I think

19:09

what the theme of this block um when it

19:12

comes to how Biden performed last night

19:13

on super Tuesday we can go ahead and put

19:16

B10 up on the screen just some really

19:18

some of the signs from the polling

19:20

that's found Biden starting to flag with

19:22

Hispanic voters black voters young

19:24

voters started to show up in the returns

19:26

yesterday talk to us a little bit about

19:28

these results from Cameron County yeah I

19:30

had big uh eyes in South Texas just

19:33

because that was such a big flip that we

19:35

saw that happened um in 2020 in some

19:38

cases moving like 40 to 50% of the vote

19:41

from Hillary Clinton to Trump what you

19:43

saw last night was actually pretty

19:45

fascinating it's not just Cameron County

19:47

but what we tried to highlight there is

19:48

a lot of the results all across South

19:50

Texas where you actually saw a pretty

19:52

significant uh you saw pretty

19:55

significant protest vote for Armando

19:57

Perez serat um who is a Democrat he's

20:00

kind of an all over the place all over

20:02

the place gentleman but critically um

20:04

was somebody who came out very hard

20:07

against Joe Biden said that he was too

20:09

old disagreed with him on the Israel

20:11

policy uh went after a lot of the

20:13

establishment Democrats that showed me

20:15

that he was one of the most uh polling

20:18

protest vote candidates but it was

20:20

localized to South Texas uh where he

20:22

spent a lot of the time actually um

20:24

campaigning on and I think what it kind

20:26

of highlights for us here on the show is

20:29

that regardless of where people are you

20:31

know in Minnesota we saw some Dean

20:32

Phillips voters and uncommitted voters

20:34

Maryann actually did quite well here in

20:36

in Virginia where Crystal and I are you

20:38

know in certain places where there were

20:40

younger voters South Texas everyone is

20:42

localizing some of their descent against

20:45

Biden and then that comes down to how

20:48

are they actually going to come out and

20:49

vote and if you couple Descent of the

20:51

existing Democrats and then the

20:53

Republican like surge of 2020 and really

20:56

in 2022 as well in South Texas I think

21:00

that it will fundamentally change the

21:01

electoral map of Texas such that the

21:04

Republican suburbs will vote Democrat

21:06

but they will make up for it with a lot

21:08

of uh non-bite non- colge educated

21:10

voters and I found that really

21:12

interesting in the results last night

21:13

yeah and my understanding uh from what

21:16

what's going on around there is that a

21:17

lot of this just feels kind of cultural

21:19

like the area is just becoming

21:21

culturally Republican like it's just in

21:23

the water like it used to be culturally

21:25

Democrat like you're you're a Democrat

21:27

because you in this area uh now fluoride

21:31

in the water it's the fluoride I mean I

21:33

I think some some of it is the is the

21:35

media like the the the Spanish language

21:38

um take takeover by the rightwing of the

21:41

media uh you know that that is dominant

21:44

there I

21:44

think is is where kind of you get that

21:47

in the water like that's that's kind of

21:49

what makes the water is is is what you

21:51

consume on Facebook and also then uh

21:54

through the Spanish language television

21:55

but yeah is is that is that your read

21:57

sagur and Emily that it's just BEC just

21:59

like you're just you just are a

22:01

republican like I think this is going to

22:02

go from a democratic stronghold to

22:04

pretty soon being just Republican

22:06

territory look I I don't think the

22:08

labels are useful it's just like the

22:11

tahano kind of libertarian identity has

22:14

been there for a long time uh in some

22:16

cases longer than even many people who

22:18

have lived in Texas who are white so my

22:20

point is just that trying to apply like

22:22

National like it's the right we take

22:24

over the media and all that I just don't

22:26

really think it's accurate I think a lot

22:27

of it just comes back to the fact that

22:29

they truly felt screwed um by the de

22:33

they felt abandoned by democrats on a

22:35

couple of key issues inflation was a

22:37

huge one actually in 2020 I believe if I

22:40

remember gas and uh Co checks were a

22:42

huge reason why people voted for Trump

22:44

back then but when you continue into

22:46

2022 immigration had become a massive

22:49

you know a massive massive issue down

22:51

there I mean not just there really

22:53

across the entire country I think last

22:54

night we saw as one of the number one uh

22:57

things that people were said that they

22:58

were voting on or was their top priority

23:01

especially in the Republican party so my

23:02

point is just that it doesn't come back

23:04

to Media it comes down to I think

23:06

actually genuinely local conditions and

23:09

to a broader more like libertarian

23:11

aesthetic identity combined with some

23:13

cultural conservatism that has existed

23:15

there for you know more than a hundred

23:17

years now at this point it's a very

23:19

unique part of the country I encourage

23:20

everybody to go if you can it's a it's

23:22

pretty fascinating place and there's

23:23

just a ghoulish segment on MSNBC last

23:26

night I don't know if everyone saw this

23:28

but it was J saki Rachel mat joy and

23:31

Reed laughing about how yes exit poles

23:33

found Republican voters in Virginia were

23:35

very concerned about immigration and

23:36

Jens saki was like I live in Virginia

23:38

come on and then I think one of them

23:40

Rachel mat was like well it's very close

23:42

to West Virginia in this just completely

23:45

obnoxious way and you know it's worth

23:47

noting that just a few days ago a a

23:49

Venezuelan migrant uh who was here

23:51

illegally was charged with sexual

23:53

assault against a 14-year-old in

23:54

Virginia so whatever wherever you stand

23:57

on the immigration issue it has changed

23:59

communities all over the country so I

24:02

think that was another I mean J saki is

24:03

still close with Biden world and

24:04

representative of Biden world and that's

24:06

sort of sticking your head in the sand

24:07

you guys have any final thoughts on this

24:09

uh before we kick you out and talk about

24:11

Victoria nuland I like Crystal uh go you

24:14

opened a can of worms with those

24:15

immigrant comments I'll just say that

24:17

you know I do think that a lot of the

24:19

concern which we see Spike around

24:20

election times fed by right-wing media

24:23

is a sort of like gind up moral Panic

24:26

not to say that it's not a legitimate

24:27

issue and to respond to the MSNBC people

24:29

treating voters with contempt is always

24:31

the wrong move so perhaps I'll say as

24:33

unifying comments rather than starting a

24:35

a storm here um last two Thoughts

24:38

with regards to the Democratic results

24:41

number one just wanted to flag that the

24:43

dude in California uh David Min I

24:46

believe is his name who is running to

24:48

replace Katie Porter in her seat he had

24:50

four and a half million dollars of APAC

24:53

money spent against him in that primary

24:56

and he still was able to succeed and uh

24:59

was the top finishing Democrat and will

25:01

go on to the general election and one

25:04

other note about him this guy is not

25:06

where I am on Gaza and Israel he's very

25:08

pro-israel but he was like mildly

25:10

critical of Benjamin Netanyahu which by

25:12

the way overwhelmingly Israelis are

25:15

extremely critical of Benjamin Netanyahu

25:17

but that's the reason they poured all

25:19

these millions into that race he was

25:20

able to overcome that that is somewhat

25:22

encouraging so I wanted to put that on

25:24

there and then last note with regards to

25:26

the Revolt among young people in a

25:29

number of these special elections where

25:32

the result really turned on you know

25:34

access to abortion and outrage over the

25:37

overturning of Row versus weight it was

25:39

a surge in young people an unexpected

25:42

surge in young people in those special

25:44

elections that help Democrats Democrats

25:46

secure those victories if you are

25:48

dismissing the concerns of these young

25:50

people if you are thinking they're just

25:51

going to get over what they see and what

25:53

I see as a genocide you have another

25:56

thing coming shifting your rhetoric is

25:58

not going to be enough they see right

26:01

through it and that was I think very

26:03

clear in the results last night

26:04

especially in the state of Minnesota

26:06

yeah the Dave minr was fascinating

26:08

because nobody could really understand

26:10

why APAC was spending millions of

26:11

dollars against this guy who's not even

26:13

you know that critical of Israel the

26:15

only thing people could land on his his

26:17

campaign concluded that they're just

26:18

trying to soften him up uh for the

26:20

general election against the Republican

26:22

in a swing District which suggests that

26:25

APAC is moving very much like the NRA

26:28

did the NRA was a bipartisan

26:30

Organization for for decades and then as

26:33

there became some criticism within the

26:35

Democratic party the NRA decided we're

26:37

not going to be bipartisan anymore wec

26:39

we're just going to you know be a

26:41

republican organization and doesn't

26:44

matter if a Democrat says they support

26:46

us we just feel safer over here with

26:49

Republicans that we'll you know we saw

26:51

how that worked out uh for the NRA uh

26:54

but when it comes to APAC yesterday

26:55

we're going to talk about this later

26:57

later in the show

26:58

Benny Gans was here in is here in

27:01

Washington DC Mike Johnson declined to

27:03

meet with him yeah that was fascinating

27:05

careful careful with this like alliance

27:07

with the Maga uh wing of the party here

27:10

Israel I'm not not exactly sure this is

27:12

so well thought out I'm excited to hear

27:14

you guys segment on that because I I saw

27:16

some of your analysis Ryan and I thought

27:17

it was really astute I think on the

27:19

apack side it's just like the Joker

27:20

quote like it's about sending a message

27:23

uh and I think that's they've got

27:24

unlimited amounts of money now at this

27:26

point I mean they're more flush I think

27:28

than they've ever been probably at the

27:30

peak of their spending powers and you

27:32

know in certain ways like their entire

27:33

organization was dedicated and exists

27:36

specifically for a moment like this

27:37

where even if public opinion is turning

27:39

that they can Flex their weight you know

27:41

in such a way that they can try and

27:42

enforce what they want so you know in a

27:44

certain way like they're they're really

27:46

fulfilling their mandate I think yeah

27:48

you they they they certainly are so

27:50

again on Thursday we'll be here uh the

27:53

four of us uh well all I don't know if

27:55

all four of us are starting at 8:30

27:56

we'll we'll figure it out be here at be

27:58

here at 8:30 while we preview the state

28:00

of the union and then at 10:00 there

28:02

will be for premium subscribers Q&A

28:05

analysis uh and and we'll we'll do that

28:08

as long as Saga can stay awake yeah I'll

28:11

try I'm gonna try my best all right

28:13

thank you guys for having us thank you

28:14

for having us we appreciate thanks y'

28:16

have fun take your tie off Sager take it

28:18

easy hey if you liked that video don't

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