EP-097 丁学良:中美交流的历史性赤字 | 丁学良 | 中国经济 | 中美关系 | 布林肯 | 留学生 | 川普 | 贸易战 | 特朗普 |
Summary
TLDR本期播客由袁莉主持,邀请了政治社会学家丁学良教授,共同探讨了中美关系的历史与现状。丁教授分享了他在美国学习、工作的经历,并对中美关系的未来进行了深刻洞察。讨论涉及了中美经济、贸易、学术和文化交流的起伏,以及近年来的交流逆差现象。提及了美中贸易战、互联网审查、以及双方民间的负面印象等问题,并对未来中美关系的最佳与最差可能性进行了展望。
Takeaways
- 🇨🇳 中美关系的历史回顾:毛泽东在1949年发表了著名评论《别了,司徒雷登》,标志着中美关系的转折点。
- 🤝 尼克松1972年访华:这一事件标志着两国关系开始缓和。
- 📉 近年来中美交流减少:包括留学生数量下降,经贸关系冷却,以及中国在美形象的负面看法增加。
- 👨🎓 学术交流重要性:丁学良教授强调了学术交流在中美关系中的重要性,尤其是在社会科学领域。
- 🎓 留学生的生活条件:丁学良教授提到,中国政府资助的留学生在美国生活条件不佳,可能影响他们对美国的看法。
- 📚 教育交流的建议:丁学良教授提出了改善中美教育交流的具体建议,如提供奖学金给学习社会科学的中国学生。
- 🔍 公众舆论的影响:中美两国民众对彼此国家的负面看法增加,这对两国关系产生了影响。
- 🎬 文化产品的影响:中国近年来成功的电影多与韩战(即朝鲜战争)有关,反映了中美之间的战争历史。
- 🌐 互联网与信息获取:中美之间的互联网限制和信息获取差异,对两国人民的相互理解和关系产生了影响。
- 💼 经济与贸易关系:中美经济和贸易关系的冷却,以及供应链的转移,对中国的经济繁荣构成了挑战。
- 🏛️ 政策与法规的影响:中美之间的政策和法规差异,如签证问题和学术交流的限制,对两国人民的互动产生了障碍。
Q & A
毛泽东在1949年发表了哪篇著名评论,它对中美关系有何影响?
-毛泽东在1949年发表了著名评论《别了,司徒雷登》,这标志着中美关系的历史上的一个转折点,中美关系从此进入了一段冷淡期。
尼克松1972年访华对中美关系有何重要意义?
-尼克松1972年的访华是中美关系开始解冻的重要事件,标志着两国关系从长期的对立走向接触和交流。
近年来中美之间的哪些交流出现了历史性的下降?
-近年来,中美之间的教育交流出现了历史性的下降,例如美国来华的国际学生数量急剧减少,2022年仅有350人,到2023年底回升至700人。同时,中国在美留学生的数量也开始减少。
2023年,哪个国家取代了中国成为美国最大的进口来源国?
-2023年,墨西哥取代了中国成为美国最大的进口来源国。
根据皮尤研究中心2023年5月1日发布的数据,美国人对中国的看法是怎样的?
-根据皮尤研究中心的数据,美国人对中国的负面看法达到了历史最高点,超过了70%的受访者对中国持负面看法。
Outlines
📜 中美关系的历史回顾与当前形势
本段落主要回顾了中美关系的历史演变,从1949年毛泽东发表《别了,司徒雷登》标志着中美关系的冰点,到尼克松1972年访华开始关系缓和。50年来,尽管有起伏,但两国在经济、贸易、学术和文化交流方面并未中断。然而近年来,中美交流再次出现历史性赤字,表现在留学人数下降、贸易关系冷却,以及美国对中国的负面看法增加。同时,中国在电影票房成功的多是关于朝鲜战争的影片,反映出中美关系的复杂性。
👨🏫 丁学良教授的学术背景与中美交流见解
丁学良教授作为嘉宾,分享了他在中美关系交流方面的观察和洞见。他是香港科技大学的荣休教授,1984年赴美深造,1992年获得哈佛大学博士学位,并曾在美国智库工作。他的研究领域包括比较现代化、全球化、国际竞争等。丁教授回忆了1988年在哈佛大学时获得的一件纪念T恤,以及他在美国学习和研究的40年历程,包括与美国国务院的交流经历,展现了当时中美交流的活跃程度。
🤝 改善中美关系的建议与思考
丁学良教授提出了改善中美关系的具体建议,包括重视中国政府资助的社会科学研究,以及改善中国政府资助的留学生在美国的生活条件,以留下积极印象。他还强调了让留学生体验美国文化和价值观的重要性,以及通过这些交流促进两国之间的理解和友好关系。
📉 中美交流的衰退及其原因
本段落讨论了中美交流合作近年来的明显下降趋势,以及其背后的可能原因。提到了2008年北京奥运会前后中美关系的高峰,以及之后关系的逐渐下滑。特别是2018年中美贸易战爆发后,关系急剧恶化。同时指出,美国对中国的不满和抱怨在特朗普时期爆发,而中国对美国的抱怨也存在多年。
🌐 互联网与中美关系的未来展望
讨论了互联网在中美关系中的作用,以及所谓的“脱钩”现象,这不仅涉及经济、贸易和技术,还包括互联网上的交流。这种脱钩使得外国学生和学者难以适应中国的环境,因为与外界的联系变得几乎不可能。同时,中国决策者希望加强双方交流,邀请更多美国青年来华交流学习,但实际数字远低于预期,反映了美国学生对中国的不乐观态度。
🔍 中美关系的未来:挑战与可能性
本段落探讨了中美关系未来可能的最佳和最坏情况,以及这些情况对两国关系和各自国家的影响。提到了布林肯提出的改善中美交流的建议,包括创造条件促进学术交流、自由开放地讨论观点、获取广泛信息和便利旅行。同时指出,这些改变需要中国中央政府的重要决策,而目前尚未看到明显的迹象。
🏛 中美文化交流的长期影响
讨论了中美文化交流对双方长期关系的潜在影响,特别是年轻一代的观点和印象如何对未来关系产生影响。提到了美国对中国的负面印象可能对中国自身的影响,以及中国互联网上对美国的负面看法。强调了改善这种状况的重要性,以及文化交流在建立积极关系中的作用。
💼 经济关系与中美脱钩现象
本段落关注了中美经济关系的变化,特别是发达国家加速与中国经济脱钩的趋势。提到了外国直接投资的减少,以及这对中国沿海和大中城市的影响。强调了中国与美国和西方国家的经济交流对中国过去几十年经济繁荣的重要性,并对未来的潜在影响表示担忧。
🏙️ 中美关系恶化对普通人的影响
讨论了中美关系恶化对普通中国人的影响,特别是对中产阶级和低收入家庭的影响。提到了留学和海外投资的困难,以及人们对未来不确定性的担忧。强调了全球化带来的机遇减少,以及这对中国社会各阶层的潜在影响。
📚 推荐阅读:增进中美文化理解
本段落中,嘉宾推荐了几本关于中美关系的书籍,包括《美国和中国》、《李慎之与美国研究所》和《毛泽东的最后革命》,旨在帮助读者更深入地了解中美两国之间的历史交流、文化差异和相互影响。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡中美关系
💡文化交流
💡经济交流
💡公共舆论
Highlights
毛泽东在1949年发表了著名评论《别了,司徒雷登》,标志着中美关系的历史性转折。
尼克松1972年访华,两国关系开始解冻。
中美关系过去50年经历了起伏,但经济、贸易、学术和文化交流并未中断。
近年来中美交流再次出现历史性赤字,美国赴华留学生数量急剧下降。
2023年墨西哥取代中国成为美国最大进口来源国。
Transcripts
Hello everyone, welcome to the Bumingbai Podcast. I am the host Yuan Li.
In August 1949, on the eve of the founding of the Communist Party of China,
Mao Zedong published the famous commentary "Farewell, Leighton Stuart",
marking a historic deficit in Sino-US relations.
Since then, the relationship between the two countries has It was
not until Nixon's visit to China in 1972 that the relationship between the two countries began to thaw.
Over the past 50 years, Sino-US relations have had ups and downs
, but the economic, trade, academic and cultural exchanges between the two countries have not been interrupted.
However, in recent years, Sino-US exchanges have once again experienced a historic surge. Deficit:
The number of international students from the United States to China dropped
sharply . In 2022, there were only 350. They rebounded to 700 by the end of 2023.
The number of Chinese studying in the United States also began to decrease.
The economic and trade relations between the two countries also cooled significantly.
In 2023, Mexico replaced China as the largest source of imports for the United States. Foreign
data released by the Pew Research Center on May 1 showed that
81% of Americans hold a negative view of China
, of which 43% held a very negative view of China.
In 2006, only 29% of Americans held a negative view of China. Negative views
China does not have reliable data in this regard
, but several of China’s most successful movies at the box office in recent years
are about the Korean War,
that is, movies about the war between China and the United States.
Why will the exchanges between China and the United States once again enter a historic deficit
in the future ? Will it continue to get worse?
What impact will this deficit have on the relations between the two countries and the two countries themselves?
In this issue, we invited political sociologist Ding Xueliang
to share his observations and insights.
Ding Xueliang is an emeritus professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
. In 1984, he went to study in the United States and
received his doctorate from Harvard University in 1992.
He once worked in an American think tank.
His main research areas include comparative modernization
, globalization, international competition
, public governance, the political economy of transformed societies, etc.
His major works include
"For and Against the Chinese Model" and China’s economy will rise again.
Hello, Mr. Ding. Hello
, hello. Hello. Hello. Hello
. Your dress looks very good today.
It’s very suitable for the camera.
This dress is very memorable. I was
rummaging through boxes and cabinets to find this one
for this show.
This piece of clothing was from the summer of 1988
when I was a PhD student at Harvard University.
In order to commemorate the tenth anniversary of China's reform and opening up
, the MIT student union
invited me to give a report
through the Harvard student union.
After the report was completed,
I was given this T-shirt. When I
gave the report at that time,
the enthusiasm of the audience's enthusiasm
for the development of Chinese students,
that kind of emotion that burst out immediately,
is like recalling a century ago.
This year is my 40th year
to study in the United States.
There are not many 40-year
anniversaries in life
, right,
because I remember very clearly
that it was August 29, 1984, when I left Beijing.
It was the first time in my life that I took a plane
and left China for the United States
. And I remember
August 30, which was very impressive.
After I arrived in the United States,
I received three very important invitations within
a week. I remember
how dynamic
the exchanges between the United States and China were at that time. One invitation was that Harvard University invited me to attend a seminar,
and we were
the organizers
. Everyone knows that MacFarquhar, the
world's number one authority on the Chinese Cultural Revolution, whose Chinese name is Ma Ruode, is one of my mentors
who has passed away.
He invited me to attend a seminar at Harvard.
The second invitation
came from Princeton. The person who invited me to the International Studies Center of the university
is still alive
because he is about the same age as me.
He studies the relationship between three major countries.
One is China,
the other is Soviet Russia, such as the Soviet Union, Russia
, and Japan.
He is fluent in three languages
. The language genius
asked me to attend a very important seminar at
the Princeton International Center.
So what about the third invitation?
Now that I think about it, it’s basically
like a dream.
I received an invitation from the U.S. State Department.
There is a very senior researcher in the U.S. State Department.
He represents the U.S. State Department.
It is this Debut Secretary who
invited me to Washington to have a discussion
with him. I am the Deputy Secretary of State
who came to study.
I was surprised
when I received this invitation.
He asked What are you doing?
Oh, I was very nervous at the time.
My spoken English is so broken now.
Then I went to the U.S. State Department
to talk to such a high-ranking official.
I am not a diplomat , and I received
some so-called revolutionary education in China
before I went abroad.
After going to the United States, you have to pay attention
to being influenced by the United States.
When you go abroad, you have to pay attention to spies and so on.
There is a lot of revolutionary education.
So when I went to Washington,
I was very surprised.
I brought my passport and
my student ID.
I brought all the papers with me
because I thought the State Council would be fine.
Then when I arrived at the gate of the State Council,
I was surprised that
no one checked my documents
and then asked me if I had an appointment.
I said yes. What time, what time?
I think who called me
, and then he took a piece of paper and
looked at it.
He said yes. He said you go in. He
didn’t even look at the ID and let me go to the U.S. State Department
to talk about the issue at that time. The United States is very concerned about
you, the best-educated people in China
, and you have also experienced China’s Cultural Revolution
and many movements before the Cultural Revolution
, including earth-shaking things,
because of their background to me. ) I have checked
and I know
what my situation was like when I was a child. I came from a rural area.
His question
focuses on the exchanges between the United States and China.
In addition to high-level diplomacy,
the knowledge of a young man like you From the molecular point of view,
what else can the United States do more
and get a positive response from China?
I made a lot of specific suggestions at that time,
including two suggestions.
I was studying in the United States at the time. It didn’t last long.
I just listened.
What is one thing
that resonates with me the most ? First, when you provide scholarships
to students from China,
you must pay attention to
the Chinese government-funded projects of the Ministry of Education.
They give priority to students majoring in science and engineering,
but China The government
basically doesn’t give priority
to students from the United States studying social sciences.
So if the United States wants to fund Chinese students,
it must fund social sciences.
I was talking about China’s science and technology at that time
. In fact, there is a huge gap between
China’s science and technology
and that of the United States.
The gap in China’s social sciences is even greater. If
there is no funding from the United States in this field , then the opportunity
to study social sciences and get a doctorate in the United States
is very slim in China.
This is the first important thing I mentioned.
The second important thing is what is it
now? For international students from mainland China who come to the United States,
if they are sponsored by the Chinese government,
I have heard a lot of these very negative remarks
because China was relatively poor at that time. They
paid more than 300 US dollars per month
and deducted part of the money for medical insurance.
Under this situation,
Chinese government-sponsored international students
can only live in the poorest and worst places. If these students
stayed in such an environment after
spending several years in the United States,
even if they were not affected by crime or violence,
their impression of the United States would be a mess.
Then the State Department officials would understand very well after hearing this.
He said that some of our cities in the United States
are so-called inner cities,
which are the central parts of old cities.
He said that many of our middle class have left and
are like shabby areas.
We know these situations.
But you can't let Chinese students come to the United States
with such an impression and then return to China. Their
impression of the United States will be a mess.
You can organize some groups in the summer
and don't spend too much money to get a bus.
Just take them. Go to monumental places in America
and let them see that
there are some really amazing things in America. Let them see
and let them remember.
Let them leave those impressions of America that are very worthwhile.
Except the places where they did a terrible job
are also part of America
. But that It’s not all about the United States.
At that time, I felt that I also made some realistic remarks about
the exchanges between the United States and China.
What you said really made
me sigh with emotion.
The relationship between China and the United States is very, very different
now than in the 1980s.
Hello everyone, I am Yuan Li
There are dozens of hours of careful preparation and production
behind the wonderful conversation you just heard.
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and taking time to communicate with the interviewees.
Only in this way can you ask good questions
and have in-depth conversations.
Bumingbai podcast will continue to be committed to
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so that Chinese people can hear profound thoughts and real emotions.
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we can hear a little persistence in each other’s hearts.
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Bumingbai.net.
I would like to ask a question.
I also said in this introduction that from the data,
the exchanges and cooperation between China and the United States
are in There has been a very obvious decline in recent years.
When do you think this situation started
and what caused it?
Because before this, it had a peak.
Before this peak, there was also a twists and turns.
Just like you said, there are still ups and downs,
but The general trend is upward. When will it
reach its peak?
In my observation, it probably reached
its peak in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
Of course, those of us who study China and observe China know that
this is the most important reason
. The peak at that time was because of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
In the years before the Olympics,
Chinese officials used all channels
, including the channels of overseas Chinese
, including the so-called old friends of the Chinese,
to expand the doors or windows of China's opening to the outside world.
Whether it’s a trail,
a front door, or a back door,
this thing left a very deep impression on me
because from 2005 to 2008,
as you know, I was
appointed by the Carnegie Foundation of the United States
to work on the project as a representative of Beijing.
It is the challenge of globalization to US-China relations.
Where is my project? You are very familiar with
it. The Friendship Hotel
receives various people from the West almost every day,
including academics, media,
diplomats, and business people. Of course
, it occasionally receives some exchange students,
so
I think it was the peak during that period.
After the peak in 2009 and 10,
there was a slow decline
, but not a sharp decline.
The real sharp decline was in the following years
. In the following years,
of course, we have to
put aside the epidemic of more than three years, because there is nothing we can do about it.
Because of the epidemic for more than three years,
people like us have lost
the right to move freely, not to mention foreigners.
Putting aside the fact that
it had been declining significantly for more than three years
before the epidemic , one of our hopes
was that after the strict epidemic prevention was lifted,
just like China's economy, many people were hoping
for a rebound and recovery.
So now it obviously looks like
China's economy has not risen as sharply as people expected
after the epidemic prevention and control was lifted,
and the exchanges between the United States and China
have not shown this momentum.
This is a very regretful thing.
You said you want to ask from When did it start
? According to my observation , it has been declining continuously
since 2010.
And this continuous decline soon
reached an extremely serious critical point
, that is, in 2018,
the trade war between the United States and China broke out
. It suddenly dropped sharply. Before this, China
already had many policies
, but the United States came out with these policies under Trump. The treatment
was dramatic, and communication
suddenly entered winter.
This is a result of the joint efforts of the decision-makers of both sides,
isn't it? Because before Trump started the trade war,
the United States had a lot of complaints about China.
We all know this
, but most of those complaints came from
the education and academic circles, and a small number came from
the media. Of course, the media complained the most,
but At that time, U.S. government officials also complained
, but their complaints at that time
were based on the expectation
that their complaints would elicit a positive response from Chinese officials,
and then the complaints from China would be eliminated.
Those measures, practices
, or rules and regulations that
are not conducive to exchanges between the two sides
. After Trump started the trade war in 2018, the dissatisfaction, resentment , and complaints
from the United States that had been accumulated for many years
exploded out. What
impressed me very deeply was that when the two sides were quarreling
, for example, Chinese diplomats in the United States,
whether in Washington or in several other cities,
had to leave their offices in the city center
within a few miles, which was OK (ok)
but beyond. If you go beyond those miles, you must report it first,
and then China will be very angry. Officials
think that this is very detrimental to the activities of Chinese diplomats in the United States.
Then American officials will say
that China has been doing this to us for decades.
In fact, The U.S. has
begun to treat these things as equals, right, and
demands reciprocity. But in the past,
when the U.S. was too embarrassed to say this, Trump
slowly started to say all the things he had said before.
Then this relationship will no longer work
, and what I said before about the United States
, because what we are talking about today is that we are the United States and China
. In fact, it is not only the United States,
but also Europe, including the Asia-Pacific region, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.
They also have similar complaints.
China probably started from In 2015,
maybe this website started in 2014.
Basically, the outside world saw
what we talk about decoupling. Decoupling refers to
the decoupling of economy, trade and technology
. But on the Internet, this decoupling
is far ahead of the post-economic, trade and technology.
This also makes it
very, very difficult
for students, scholars, etc.
from the United States, Europe,
or the outside world in the Asia-Pacific region to get used to it after arriving in mainland China,
because it has nothing to do with outside friends or relatives. connect
It becomes basically impossible
, so these complaints
have erupted like a volcano
in 2018.
Chinese decision-makers expressed their hope to strengthen exchanges between the two sides
and expressed their willingness to invite 50,000
American teenagers in the next five years.
Go to China for exchange and study . However, there will still be only 700
American students in China in 2023.
In 2018, this number was still more than 11,000.
Do you think this is why there has been a sudden drop in the number of American students willing to come to China?
We all know that in In the United States,
you ask those American youths, whether they are Asian or non-Asian,
no matter which ethnic group they are,
to make them spend so much energy and time to come to China.
Even if they receive part of the funding
, they still have to have additional funds. In addition to the cost of his own
time, why did he come to China
? Either he is very positive about you emotionally, likes you here
, or is even fascinated.
There is another reason that is more important than this reason,
which is his own studies
and employment after studies. Is it an important investment
? If China's economy becomes better and better
and more open to the outside world
, then the economic, technological, and cultural channels between the United States and
China will become wider and wider in the future . Then these young people will come to China.
I don’t think people who come here to study and exchange are
the kind of tourists who
come for a week or two and then leave. I think they come to China for at least a semester
or even an academic year or even two or three years.
Why do they invest so much?
Either there is hope in the future, that is,
because he has made such an investment in China
, he will be rewarded for the growth of his young people.
But since 2016,
what I have met is the United States, Canada, Australia, and
Europe. Young people
, I say, young people from the age group of 20 to 35
are increasingly less optimistic about the return on their investment in China. This
is because American students and young people want to come to China
unless their family’s economic situation is very good
and these young people The person himself is also willing to invest his financial resources
in exchanges in China.
Otherwise, he will have to obtain a lot of funding from outside the family.
We all know that in the United States, there are many foundations in the United States and
exchange scholarships in good universities in the United States. Scholarship)
This fellowship is this scholarship,
what is it, Program (project), there are many
, but the United States does not only deal with China,
it deals with so many countries,
why is it able to sponsor (fund)
if it is not related to it? Provide funds to support these young people
, and it is not just a small number,
and it is not a short-term but medium- to long-term support for them to come to China.
There must be a strong driving force behind
this. At least part of this strong driving force is political. I have a positive expectation
that China is not my enemy.
We sponsor our young people from the United States to come to China
for the sake of future friendly cooperation.
In recent years, this positive attitude has been
basically wiped out. Isn’t this the case? You didn’t
see it at all. There was an article in the New York Times today.
The author is an associate professor at Princeton University.
He just said something above. He said that in the United States, especially in Washington,
as long as you add Chinese in front of anything you say,
the other party will immediately speak. It makes me very nervous
. There is so much negativity in politics
. These problems are definitely not entirely attributed to
Trump alone. It is not like this.
Trump’s contribution in this regard is definitely not attributed to him.
There are many American mainstream media analyzing
what positive or negative things they have done in the past four years.
There is one sentence that impressed me so deeply.
If Trump still leaves a legacy
that will not be abandoned by future generations,
there is only one sentence. That is, he has adopted
a different policy towards China than before.
This may be the most important legacy he left behind.
We can see clearly now that the
Biden administration has actually inherited the Trump administration’s China policy
. The direction is the same
, and now China policy is
the easiest issue for the two parties in Congress to reach consensus.
I would also like to ask you about the Chinese decision-makers who want to invite 50,000 Americans to China.
This reminds me of China in 1984.
Inviting 3,000 Japanese youths to visit China.
At that time, we all watched a lot of news footage on TV.
It was very, very enthusiastic.
You can say that it was the most eager era for China to develop relations with the world.
I would like to ask this decision-making team. Now they suddenly hope The two sides have strengthened exchanges
, but why does it seem that the United States has not responded strongly to this call?
This is something we pay close attention to
and need to collect enough information to explain why this is the case.
In my observation, it is because
China has now proposed a formal One of the goals
proposed
is that 10,000 American students will come here every year in five years.
But Blinken said it when he visited China not long ago.
If you really want more American young people to come to China,
you should In what aspects should you consider
improving China's current practices, regulations
, or specific obstacles
? If you don't solve these problems, if
you just put forward a goal, there is nothing you can do.
We all know that the United States is different from China.
If it is the United States. It is proposed that
in the next five years, not 50,150,000
Chinese students will be welcomed to the United States.
Even if Chinese students are not willing to come to
the United States , as long as a group of political party organizations in China arranges it,
it will be solved immediately.
However, American students, the United States government, and
this American university Fortunately,
it can't make American students do things
they don't want to do.
This is the crux of the problem.
It's what Blinken said.
You must think about why they are unwilling to come. Let
me talk about what Blinken said at the time. What's happening
is that in April
he said that if China wants to attract more Americans to come,
his best way is to create conditions
that allow academic activities to develop and progress anywhere,
to discuss ideas freely and openly,
to have access to a wide range of information, and to facilitate travel.
Confident
in the safety and security and privacy of participants,
I would like to ask
if you think it is possible for Beijing to make these changes.
There are no significant signs yet
that they are going to make these changes.
I think small changes are possible,
but on a large scale. To make this change,
it must be
the central government in Beijing and an extremely important decision can be made.
Otherwise, no local government
can change this situation. It is impossible.
This is a national institutional problem.
Of course, we will know that
China Whether it is a teaching institution,
a foreign exchange institution, a cultural institution,
a science and technology institution,
or even a religion, art, etc.,
if the highest level of China proposes a goal,
they will definitely try their best to achieve it. The numbers are filled up
, but I don’t care
whether there is any actual effect.
You have to know that in China
, only the highest level proposes a numerical goal.
This numerical goal can always be exceeded , but in fact,
I don’t care whether it really has such an effect.
You don’t have this kind of confidence.
Are you willing to look ahead to
the best and worst possibilities for Sino-US exchanges in the next five or ten years? And
what impact will they have on Sino-US relations
and the two countries themselves?
This is A very, very, very important, profound
or meaningful issue.
We are now looking at it in the current time frame.
If China can
implement what Blinken said during his visit to China
in the second half of this year or within the next year and a half.
Solve the problems that are relatively easy to solve first among obstacles.
For example, can we allow students from the United States to build
facilities after they
come to China , or the reading rooms they use
, or the Facilities and equipment they use, etc.
Just like some very important companies
and manufacturers in China and foreign-funded manufacturers
can I think this can be done
smoothly through external networks.
For example, every university, especially important universities,
will approve a conference room if dozens of American students come to
exchange students.
They have to communicate with the outside world
in a room.
They
only allow them to communicate here. After all, you still have to show that you have this understanding or support. I would like to say
that the obstacles that will be raised by Blinken
in the second half of this year or next year
are to identify three first. There are three basic solutions that are relatively easy to solve.
Then your sincerity comes out because
most of the young people
in the United States who have been in the United States are relatively open.
If they have heard anything
or read anything negative about China
before, If
he had not encountered this kind of reality when he came to China,
they would have quickly changed their previous negative impression
. They were afraid that when they went to China,
they would find that it was worse than what they heard outside, and
the people behind would not come over,
right? You're right.
I've been telling you that in the United States,
there is no institution that can force American students to do things they don't want to do.
Another example
is that the Chinese website includes those about China overseas.
The United States is now unfriendly to international students from China.
Then What about visa rejections, etc.
For your program, I went to consult
someone who specializes in this exchange. Statistics said
that last year, the number of mainland Chinese students who were denied visas in the United States
was 1 in 4,250 . That is 1 in 4,250
that was obtained by the United States last year.
The proportion of Chinese students who have visas
but are refused entry when entering the country
is one in 4,250,
which is actually a very small
proportion.
So if you talk about reciprocity,
the conditions in
China are not as good as those in the United States in many aspects, but
you just can't fully Equivalent
, but your gap cannot be too big.
When I came to the United States to study from China,
many conditions in China were very poor, very poor, very poor.
But at that time, whether you were people like us who went abroad to
introduce China to foreigners
, or When people from abroad come to China,
they have very optimistic expectations.
We are sincere.
We do not go to foreign countries to confuse foreigners.
We all know that
there are many problems in China today
, but China today is much more open than yesterday and the day before yesterday.
China will definitely be more open tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Do
you really think so? Is it true
that China will be more open tomorrow and the day after tomorrow?
That was
when I came to the United States to study in 1984.
I had this confidence. Did
you think so before
? Do you still have the confidence now?
No,
I can't do anything now.
I can't do anything now.
Just say that
today's China is better than yesterday. The day before yesterday
, it's a big deal. The epidemic may be better than last year.
I can't think of other aspects of
epidemic prevention and control.
You ask this question. What kind of consequences will it cause in the future?
I think the consequences will be very, very, very
high, and the cost will be very, very high.
Because when I read or do research and the professor summarized it,
we all know
that it happened in the US-China exchanges after 1972.
Once you understand their backgrounds,
you will be very surprised to find out about
the Americans who played a very important role.
In Boston,
I often found that
people took the initiative to come to us, international students from the mainland,
and ask about where my parents
were in China before 1949. What are China doing?
Some people say
what my grandparents are doing in China.
You know how much influence this family has on future generations.
I gave a lot of examples of people,
such as Blumenthal , who played a very important role
in the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China.
Lumenthal, Secretary of Commerce,
is so good to China
. Why is it
because he is an American Jew ?
Why is George W. Bush so friendly to China ? Why
did George W. Bush have his family go to Beijing to watch and support you
during the 2008 Olympics
? It’s because George W. Bush is in his father’s home. When Bush Sr. was in Beijing,
Bush Jr. had a very happy time in Beijing
, and he often said that
the whole family rode this bike
everywhere and it was
very open (open).
This was a very friendly China.
At that time, China was poor and backward
, but people left behind a very beautiful legacy.
Americans have no natural prejudice against China. Even
if there is very little prejudice,
you can imagine that in the next 10 years,
we don’t know
if there is no improvement within 10 years,
there will not be enough young people in the United States
within this 10 years. After coming to China
for a long enough time,
I will tell you
that the impression left by
the entire generation of American young people
on China
is a negative impression. Does
n’t China now have a term?
Where is it fixed in
your understanding of China?
To understand and judge
, it is always negative.
Let me just say
that China's current view of the United States
is also negative.
If you look at social media,
no matter what happens,
the responsibility
lies with the United States anyway. Even if it
has nothing to do with China and the United States, In the end, the problem
can be said
to be because of what happened to the United States in the future.
In fact, Chinese people and the Chinese Internet have
very, very negative views of the United States.
Although we have no particularly clear and
reliable data to confirm this,
if you think this is the case,
right? What kind of impact will China itself have?
We all know that China's Internet
is extremely strictly controlled.
We don't care about
the information, pictures,
or whatever (whatever else) that can stay
on China's Internet for several hours. Whether it expresses
how bad it is or
whether it has not been 404ed or deleted,
it means there is nothing wrong with it.
You only rely on China’s Internet to judge
whether this is the true mentality of the Chinese people towards the United States.
It is easy to be misled.
The real thing
Among the Chinese people, there are only a few
people who have so much hatred for the United States.
I have actually never done such a poll.
I just rely on
my experience as a Chinese.
I have been working with China’s education , media, culture, and technology
for decades. When dealing with the world of economics,
I can safely say that
this does not mean that we
do not criticize the United States, we do not criticize its policies,
and we do not criticize the bad things in some American societies.
Like me,
I am most critical of the United States because of
the violence caused by
the proliferation of guns in the United States.
Crime , I would describe this as the first major social problem
in the United States on almost any occasion
, but this does not affect my
positive evaluation of other aspects of the United States
, and I believe
that as long as this American young man comes to China,
it will be reversed.
The extremely negative and even hateful influence
they get from China's Internet
is very bad and
absolutely cannot be done. This situation
must not be allowed
, but we cannot underestimate
the CCP's hateful education
on the Internet. There is such
an overwhelming sentiment of hatred against the United States.
The movie "Changjin Lake" with the highest box office in China right now
is about the war between China and the United States.
We have to deny that
this is obvious.
You are not saying that it is from a minority.
I think it is. It's a pretty common sentiment
because you said that when Americans come to China,
they have access to people
, but China's Internet environment is
a closed information environment,
and what
it can accept is hatred.
The fact that there is no way to change
this does not mean that the people are not good
or anything.
In such an environment,
it is difficult for many people to distinguish between what is true
and what is false.
You see, I have an experience in this
regard . As a reference
, after 72 years
when Mao Zedong was still alive,
a very small number of
exchange students
from North America, including Canada and the United States,
came to China not to get degrees
. At that time, Chinese society
was full of places. Overthrow U.S. imperialism,
overthrow Soviet revisionism, and
overthrow. Reactionaries in various countries
shout revolutionary slogans every day,
get up every morning, and
do gymnastics.
But
the North American students
who came to the United States in the early days that
I came into contact with
privately talked about
the Chinese youth
they misremembered at that time. People
are full of curiosity about the United States
and
have even expressed
their hope that one day
, just like you can come to China,
we hope that we can also come to the United States to
see you. Let us talk about it, it is
economic. This kind of economic and trade relationship
is that developed countries including the United States
are accelerating their decoupling from China
, or to put it more nicely, they are de-risking.
They are transferring the supply chain
outside of China.
The foreign direct investment in China in 2023
will be 90%. The lowest since the 1990s.
Many Chinese people are worried about this, especially
in coastal and large and medium-sized cities.
The first question I want to ask
is to what extent has China’s economic prosperity
in the past few decades benefited from China and the United States
? Economic and trade exchanges between China and Western developed countries.
As long as Chinese economists
are realistic and realistic,
you can see a lot of statistical data
during the US-China trade war
from 2018 to 2022,
which is from China’s reform and opening up in 1978. From the beginning of the year
to 2018, during this long period,
the largest source of China’s trade surplus from exports
was the United States, and the second was Europe.
In other words,
these two made money from hard currency. It is the largest source.
No one who is realistic will deny this.
Of course, China has experienced a lot of foreign exchange.
What has it done with the Belt and Road Initiative
and helped very poor countries? That
is another matter.
What can you get
from those countries?
With a lot of raw materials, you can
sell the mid-range, mid-range and lower-end products produced in China
, which can more or less solve some employment problems in China
. But for China,
we need to move up from the current middle-income level and move
out of the middle-income level.
You absolutely cannot step into the income trap.
If your relationship with the United States becomes worse and worse
, and then your relationship with Europe becomes worse and worse,
because although the United States has repeatedly emphasized that it is not buying
, it is in very core areas.
You are less and less allowed to enjoy the previous treatment
. Although Europe has not reached the same level as the United States
, Europe is slowly making progress in these aspects.
We can imagine
that Korea and Japan used to
quarrel with each other every once in a while because of historical issues
. It is clear
that in the past two years,
even South Korea and Japan have been constantly discussing
which areas
they should increase cooperation
in the next step . Why is the potential threat coming from China?
If you think about it,
China has so many important trading rivals.
Australia,
New Zealand, you also know this AUKUS.
Now South Korea and Japan are going to join AUKUS
as the second echelon.
It is not the first echelon.
This does not mean that you are just having trouble with the United States.
So if you look at the past few decades
or even the past year, For
over a hundred years ,
the most important foreign relationship for China
has been the United States.
As long as China has a good relationship with the United States,
its relations with other developed countries will not be that bad.
As long as China has a very bad relationship with the United States,
The relationship with other developed countries will not get any worse
because China has deep-seated reasons.
This is what worries me.
I can’t see the support of improved experience now.
I can’t see
the U.S.-China relationship.
I can only see it now. What the two sides
can do now
is to prevent this relationship from
brewing into a situation where armed conflict is relatively high.
The two sides seem to have some consensus. There is basically no consensus on
other major issues. If our generation did not have
the US-China relations after 1972, Without
the improvement of
the reform and opening up in 1978,
our whole life was ruined.
It was ruined.
Yes,
half of our teenage years were ruined.
Later, it was repaired
and we had a second chance
and a third chance.
We could not go to school. I had to go to the countryside for re-education
. Then
I went to the United States
with a scholarship to study.
At that time, China’s policy prohibited those of us who have obtained a master’s degree
in China
from studying abroad at our own expense.
In fact, how can we study abroad at our own expense?
We don’t have any money either
. All the money like mine
comes from foundations or universities
in the United States.
Why should it support you?
Does it owe you? If it
doesn’t have an optimistic understanding
of China’s exchanges,
why should it support you with this money
? China If
students come to study
, let me ask you another question
: the current decoupling
or the cooling
trend of Sino-US relations
or Sino-US exchanges
is becoming less and less optimistic.
This trend
is getting worse and worse . The
slippery slope
is
becoming more and more slippery.
Are you worried about this situation
in mainland China
and
Hong Kong
?
That's what I'm talking about. Worry
, worry, anxiety.
In
an informal setting,
it's a little informal.
What I'm talking about is not a secret.
In a slightly informal setting,
this is a very common sentiment.
It is a very common sentiment
, and you can see clearly
that in these years,
who said that the United States and China were on
a downward slope, those resources
that originally belonged to
the interaction between mainland China Good
opportunities,
great benefits,
great losses .
Where have some of them gone?
The number one gainer and
gainer are Taiwan,
second and Singapore.
Why
do we have these two places
? After all, they still belong to the Chinese society.
You see , you know better than me
over the years.
That is the most important international media.
The original bureau
was in mainland China. It turned
out
to be
in Hong Kong.
There was no way to stay. It
’s not that we didn’t want to stay in China
.
Then there were so many schools
, including middle schools
, including conservatories
and dances. The Academy of Fine Arts
, including those famous universities, has
fewer
and fewer
exchange programs with China.
And I also know
that
the United States cannot completely
ignore China's affairs
because China must be the second largest economy.
After all, China still
has a great influence on the world situation,
so you can clearly see now that
their more and more exchange projects,
including school exchange projects,
are now moved to Taiwan
and Singapore,
relying on information from these two places.
To make up for the fact
that they cannot be in mainland China
, it turns out that you know better than me.
Three years ago,
Hong Kong was the best showcase for understanding mainland China,
whether it was to study China
, invest in China
, report on China
, or communicate with others.
Now there are no such opportunities in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is
the best window to understand mainland China.
This has been more than a hundred years ago.
Even in Mao's era, it was like this.
Now there is no way to stay in Hong Kong.
As for Chinese intellectuals,
what will your relationship with the outside world be in the future?
After contact ,
where are
the channels to the outside world? You
are doing business with Africa.
You have too many raw materials, and their value to you
is not that big. The market is
not that big
, and they cannot allow you to improve your overall level.
To improve your overall level,
your largest source in the world is the United States, your
second largest source is Europe,
and your third largest source is Asia-Pacific.
First, take a look at these three
sources . None of them are directly connected to you. Which channel
is open now
, and it will be better tomorrow than today. No one in Changtong
dares to say this.
No one has the confidence.
Then I would like to ask,
what is the reaction of the people you come into contact
with, especially business people?
What should they do?
Because now we have also seen that China
Even if you have money, you
are very worried.
For example, in mainland China,
in the past 40 years, many coastal
and even inland cities
have been lifted out of poverty
, and a considerable number of them
have become the real middle class.
At this stage,
their families are most concerned about
The first is to ask his children to study abroad.
The second is that if he has more money,
he will consider
buying a house in the United States or North America, whether it is
a deposit or an investment.
This can be said about China's population of 1.4 billion. Among the 400 million people who
are now considered
to be middle class, at least 100 million people
in the middle have such an expectation
. They may not necessarily have the ability to get there immediately
, but at least 100 million people have such an expectation. Do
you want to I want to see
it. First of all, the relationship between the United States and China is getting worse and worse.
I am often asked
what it would be like to apply for an American university. What would
it be like to apply for an American graduate
school? I have to tell them the truth.
I said we went there 40 years ago. When we went to the United States,
there were no majors
that we couldn’t apply for
when we studied in mainland China.
In fact, you may not be able to get in, but
that’s different now.
There are also people like us who were in the United States before
. If we stay in the United States ,
It’s not that difficult.
Now you don’t have the confidence.
Then there are Chinese people who want to invest
their property overseas
. Look, I know so many middle-aged people aged 35 to 50 who are
quite successful in their businesses
and trade
. The biggest issue we are considering now is how to send the children and assets.
The children are the biggest assets.
The second is how to send
the financial assets.
Where will
they be sent?
Will they be sent to North Korea? Will they be sent to Russia?
Will they be sent ? Iran?
Will he send it to Syria?
The first choice
is
North America
, Western Europe
, and then Australia, New Zealand,
Japan,
and yes,
China
. People in China are very clear about this sentence.
As long as you have Chinese money at home,
everyone knows
where to look.
Why is this so
? Why? There is a price to
pay for
the safety process
, but as long as the children and assets are moved out,
in the future
they will be protected, right?
This
is called insurance.
This is a very real problem .
I just want to ask you a
very real question
, that is, the number of people who can study abroad
and have the money to move abroad
is still very small among Chinese people, right?
What can ordinary Chinese people do
when faced with the current situation
? There are not many channels
to study abroad
and buy a house
or property.
How should we look at this matter
? It’s just like
basic people
like us . We are more or less
families
with relatively good conditions. According to what I have heard
or the more information I have heard,
the middle- and low-income families
in mainland China
are living day
by day
, because soon
families like these
will encounter
the largest family in China
in ten to fifteen years. One of the fundamental problems
is their pension.
In ten to fifteen years,
except for a few families,
the only children of most middle- and lower-income families
will have reached the age of forty or fifty,
and then the elders above them will
Pensions and pensions
are very, very inadequate.
Then their children have poor employment prospects. Even if they find a job, their
income
is
limited
.
This is very realistic.
Like before,
because our Hong Kong
is close to Guangdong
and close to this coastal area,
people over the age of 45 talk about it every day
. So in the past,
we We all know
that as long as you can endure hardship
, as long as you are not too stupid,
your tomorrow will be better than this year,
and you will definitely make more money next year
. I have rarely encountered
people who have said this
in recent years.
I have rarely encountered people who say this. If
you look at the way they spend money,
it is very realistic.
We are talking about
disposable income.
You can see that
when I was in this coastal place before,
because he had great expectations for the future,
whether he was eating, drinking, entertaining friends or
wearing clothes
You can tell by looking at
weekend
trips, festivals
and other travels, shopping in Hong Kong, etc.
So when you look at them,
I feel envious of them.
I said that you are really catching up with the good times.
I said that you have lived so well in your thirties and
forties . In those days,
when we were studying in the United States, and
when we got our PhDs,
our income in the United States
was not as generous as yours now.
Of course, in recent years,
you can’t see this kind of luxury.
Basically, you can’t see it.
Yes
, it’s
most of them. No one
knows
what will happen tomorrow, the day after tomorrow
, and the day after tomorrow. Economically speaking,
I think these people are not talking about
oh, he has some great dreams.
I am talking about
ordinary people
, people who live their lives.
Well
, people who live their
lives like that, most people. They all think about living their lives
, yes, yes,
oh, really.
In fact,
even people who live their lives
may actually think that
the topic of Sino-US relations is actually very far away from them
, but it is actually very, very closely
related
to their lives.
Think about it.
Why are the children born in middle- and lower-income families
in the past few decades
able to get out of poverty as long as they
accomplish one of three things
?
The first one
is that they
don’t need to be top
if they get admitted to a better school.
Then the second
major is more suitable
, such as mechanical processing,
etc. It is because China
has taken the road of globalization
that there are so many job opportunities.
If he has not been admitted to a better
school, The school
did not get a better degree.
If
he worked hard and went to the coast
to open a small restaurant
or a small shop
, or work as a taxi driver
or
do some other service work,
he could get out of poverty
and take care of his family. The people who
moved from relatively poor rural areas
to the mass cities along the coast
have also made a comeback.
If China had not had so many opportunities
during globalization,
it would be hard to say
that the water
would not flow to them.
Now the water is getting dryer and drier
. Not
at all , but
there
are still less
and less.
Look
, as long as you go to the big cities
in mainland China,
you can see that the shopping malls are
deserted.
Then look at the restaurants,
which are very
lively. It's really
a good
occasion to make a fuss.
Then we ask each guest to recommend three books
or movies.
What do you recommend? As
someone who has read so many books,
you must have a lot to recommend.
Thank you very much for letting me recommend books
to us. I have been reading all my life
. Oh,
what our audience also likes the most is this section.
You said that
it basically
only influenced
the understanding of China for generations in the United States
. "The United States and China" written by King Fairbank,
this is also
a must-read for me as a teaching assistant at Harvard University.
And the Chinese translation of this book ,
but I don’t know if I can buy it now.
The Chinese translation is the fourth edition
of World Knowledge Press.
After reading this book, you will know
what the past exchanges between the United States and China
were like over the past few centuries.
Anyone who can read English
or Chinese can also
have a traditional Chinese version.
This is the first book I recommend.
The second book I recommend
is also made in the United States and
run by a Chinese-American company called
Yijia Publishing
One Two Three Four One Traditional
Chinese. "Li Shenzhi and the American Institute"
was published by Jia Yijia
in Jialingjiang. The American Institute of
the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences
was the director of the American Institute
before I went abroad. He was
also my personal acquaintance
and a good friend of my mentor.
This book is a memory
that tells What you
are telling you is
how this group of people has promoted
mutual understanding , mutual respect
and mutual cooperation
between China and the United States
since the 1970s.
Although it is not very academic
, these details are very touching.
I think This
was done in the United States
because
these books can no longer be published
in mainland China . Li Shenzhi and the United States.
Li Shenzhi and the United States
are good.
I have read that Zi Zhongyun
wrote a memoir
in which he wrote a lot. Li Shenzhi is
a very interesting person. The charm
is just
because he was recommended by Li Shenzhi
as his successor.
Isn't this Zizhongyun?
Li Shenzhi wrote a lot about him,
and the third book
was
the last one
I mentioned
at the beginning of
Ma Ruode's
life
, which had the greatest impact. A book
" Mao Zedong's Last Revolution"
has
an English version
published by Harvard University
and a traditional Chinese version.
Mine is the simplified version. The translations of
the traditional version and the simplified version
are basically the same.
After reading this book, you will know
what kind of huge damage China's
complete isolation
from the outside world during
the Cultural Revolution for ten years
has brought to China.
Because our
country The book itself is
the first one that does not have this book.
When we were
teaching assistants
, we
needed to find some materials to translate
temporarily. After many times
of screening
, we
finally got this masterpiece.
It
is very good
and
wonderful
. Thank
you, Teacher Ding
. Thank you. Everyone, please tune in
and see you next time
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