Ex-Trump official predicts Melania's behavior amid Trump criminal trial
Summary
TLDR在讨论前美国总统特朗普面临的法律挑战时,分析人士认为纽约法院不太可能停止审判进程。尽管特朗普的法律团队可能会尝试将案件上诉至最高法院,但专家们认为这一策略成功的可能性非常小。此外,讨论还涉及了特朗普个人对这场官司的看法,特别是考虑到他的妻子梅拉尼娅对此的态度。专家们还讨论了特朗普在社交媒体上的发言是否违反了禁止令,以及这可能对案件中的证人造成的潜在威胁。
Takeaways
- 📚 法律分析师和前白宫新闻秘书讨论了特朗普团队可能的法律行动和失败。
- 🚨 纽约法院似乎决心推进审判,对反复提出的动议和上诉迅速作出裁决。
- 💭 尽管可能性不大,但最高法院仍然是一个不确定因素,尤其是在联邦案件中的豁免权问题上。
- 🤔 特朗普试图利用总统豁免权来排除某些证据,但这一点与最高法院目前处理的案件不同。
- 🧐 特朗普的法律团队知道他的法律行动不太可能成功,但仍在进行,可能是因为特朗普本人的意愿。
- 😡 特朗普可能试图推迟案件,因为他个人对此案感到尴尬,尤其是对他的家庭和妻子梅拉尼娅。
- 🎤 特朗普上庭可能会使情况变得更糟,因为他在压力下的证词可能会损害自己的案件。
- 💬 特朗普在社交媒体上的言论可能会违反禁言令,并将证人置于危险之中。
- 🔎 法官正在努力保护审判的公正性,确保证人能够根据法庭上的证词而不是外界影响接受评判。
- 🚨 特朗普可能在挑战法官的权威,因为他认为自己不会面临任何后果。
Q & A
这次讨论的主要内容是什么?
-这次讨论的主要内容是关于特朗普的法律团队可能采取的策略,以及特朗普本人对于即将到来的审判的态度和可能的行动。
特朗普的法律团队可能会尝试哪些行动?
-特朗普的法律团队可能会尝试向上诉法院提出上诉,如果失败,可能会尝试向最高法院申请暂停审理此案件,同时等待豁免权的决定。
纽约法院在特朗普案件中的立场是什么?
-纽约法院在特朗普案件中的立场是坚定的,他们已经多次表示将会迅速处理重复的动议和上诉,并且看起来是全力推进实际审判的日期。
最高法院在特朗普案件中扮演什么角色?
-最高法院在特朗普案件中是一个不确定因素,尽管在联邦案件中曾经有过关于豁免权的裁决,但如果特朗普将案件带到最高法院,情况可能会有所不同。
特朗普为什么想要推迟审判?
-特朗普想要推迟审判可能是因为这个案件对他个人来说非常尴尬,尤其是对他的家庭和妻子梅拉尼娅来说。此外,他可能也在试图控制公众对他的看法。
梅拉尼娅对特朗普的法律问题有何影响?
-梅拉尼娅对特朗普的法律问题有很大的影响,她是一个非常独立和坚强的女性,对于特朗普的丑闻非常不满,她可能会推动特朗普采取更积极的行动来应对这些问题。
特朗普在法庭上的表现如何?
-特朗普在法庭上的表现并不理想,他在压力下的表现并不好,例如在Jean Carroll的证词中,他的表现被认为是不可信的,并且损害了他的案件。
特朗普在社交媒体上的发言是否违反了禁言令?
-特朗普在社交媒体上的一些发言可能违反了禁言令,尤其是那些可能引起对证人Stormy Daniels的威胁和恐吓的言论。
Stormy Daniels在特朗普被起诉后遭遇了什么?
-Stormy Daniels在特朗普被起诉后遭遇了网络暴力和直接威胁,包括对她及其女儿的生命安全的威胁。
特朗普是否想要面临监禁的风险?
-特朗普肯定不想面临监禁的风险,尽管他已经多次违反了禁言令,但他可能认为自己不会面临任何实际的后果。
特朗普的法律策略可能会对他的公众形象产生什么影响?
-特朗普的法律策略可能会对他的公众形象产生负面影响,特别是如果他继续在社交媒体上发表可能违反法庭命令的言论,这可能会被视为对法律的不尊重和对证人的不公正对待。
Outlines
📚 法律分析:特朗普案件的上诉可能性
本段落主要讨论了特朗普案件在纽约法院的上诉可能性。分析人士认为,纽约法院不太可能停止此案的审理,因为之前的法官和上诉部门已经做出了类似的裁决,并且似乎已经确定了审判日期。尽管如此,最高法院仍然是一个不确定因素,尤其是考虑到之前在联邦案件中对特朗普的豁免权问题的处理。专家们认为,特朗普的法律团队可能不会在纽约法院采取任何能够阻止审判的行动,但他们可能会尝试向最高法院提出上诉,尽管成功的可能性很小。此外,讨论了特朗普可能试图利用法庭外的因素来影响案件进程,包括他个人对案件的关注以及他的妻子梅拉尼娅对此事的态度。
💬 社交媒体言论与法庭禁令:特朗普的策略与风险
这一段讨论了特朗普在社交媒体上的言论是否违反了法庭的禁止令,以及这些言论可能对证人造成的潜在威胁。分析人士指出,根据法官的具体命令,特朗普在社交媒体上对证人的评价可能构成对禁止令的违反,这可能会对证人造成更多的威胁。此外,讨论了特朗普可能不惧怕法庭的禁止令,因为他以前违反过这些命令却没有受到严重后果。专家们认为,特朗普可能会继续这种行为,直到真正面临后果。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡上诉法院
💡豁免权
💡审判
💡最高法院
💡法律团队
💡公开审理
💡封口费
💡社交媒体
💡证人
💡禁止令
💡司法公正
Highlights
讨论了特朗普的法律团队可能采取的策略,包括向上诉法院和最高法院寻求帮助。
分析了纽约法院可能不会阻止即将到来的审判,并且特朗普的法律团队似乎意识到他们的法律行动不太可能成功。
提到了特朗普可能试图将案件焦点转移到与Stormy Daniels的关系上,而不是案件的核心问题——封口费支付。
讨论了特朗普可能上庭作证的可能性,以及这对他的法律处境可能产生的影响。
分析了特朗普的个人动机,包括他的妻子梅拉尼娅对此案的看法以及她可能对特朗普施加的压力。
提到了特朗普在社交媒体上的发言可能违反了封口令,以及这可能对Stormy Daniels构成的危险。
讨论了特朗普可能试图通过挑战法官的命令来测试法官的界限。
分析了特朗普可能不会因为违反封口令而面临监禁,因为他以前也没有因此受到惩罚。
讨论了特朗普的法律团队可能对最高法院采取的策略,以及这是否现实。
分析了特朗普的法律团队可能试图利用总统豁免权作为辩护策略。
讨论了特朗普的法律团队可能试图推迟审判的动机。
提到了特朗普的法律团队可能试图通过提出无关紧要的动议来分散注意力。
分析了特朗普可能试图通过挑战法官的权威来影响公众舆论。
讨论了特朗普可能试图通过社交媒体来影响案件的公众形象。
分析了特朗普可能试图通过挑战法律程序来测试法官的耐心和公正性。
提到了特朗普可能试图通过挑战封口令来测试法官是否会采取行动。
讨论了特朗普可能试图通过挑战法律程序来影响案件的公众形象。
Transcripts
APPEALS THIS WEEK OR BEFORE
MONDAY.
>> ALL RIGHT, PAULA, THANK YOU
VERY MUCH ROCHA IS WITH ME NOW,
THE FORMER SDNY DIVISION CHIEF
RYAN GOODMAN ARE LEGAL ANALYST
AND STEPHANIE GRISHAM, THE
FORMER TRUMP WHITE HOUSE PRESS
SECRETARY SO MANY THREE DAYS,
THREE EFFORTS, THREE FAILURES,
AS PAULA SAID, UNCLEAR WHAT
ELSE THEY COULD TRY TO DO, BUT
SHE LAID OUT ONE POSSIBILITY
THAT WE COULD TRY TO GO TO THE
APPEALS COURT, FAIL, TRY TO GO
TO THE SUPREME COURT, TRIED TO
GET A STAY THERE ON THIS CASE
WHILE IMMUNITY IS DECIDED, IS
ANY OF THIS REALISTIC?
>> I THINK THERE'S NOTHING
THAT THEY CAN DO IN THE NEW
YORK COURTS THAT WILL STOP THIS
I THINK THE NEW YORK COURTS ARE
REPEATEDLY SIGNALLING BOTH THE
JUDGE, THE TRIAL JUDGE, THE
APPELLATE DIVISION HAS ALREADY
DONE THIS AND I BELIEVE THE
COURT OF APPEALS WILL ALSO
RULING VERY QUICKLY ON THESE
REPEATED MOTIONS AND APPEALS.
THEY ARE SEEMED TO BE A FULL
STEAM AHEAD THAT THIS IS A REAL
TRIAL DATE AND IT'S STICKING.
I THINK THE SUPREME COURT IS
ALWAYS A WILDCARD HERE. I MEAN,
WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE
IMMUNITY IN THE FEDERAL CASE.
AND SO THAT ONE IS A LITTLE BIT
HARDER TO SAY THAT CAN'T
POSSIBLY HAPPEN IF TRUMP BRINGS
IT TO THE SUPREME COURT. IF HIS
LAWYERS DO
>> BUT
>> I REALLY TRIED TO STAY AWAY
FROM PROTECTIONS WHEN IT COMES
TO ANYTHING REGARDING FORMER
PRESIDENT TRUMP, BUT I THINK
THE TRIALS GOING ON MONDAY.
YEAH. RYAN, DO YOU THINK THAT
THERE'S SUPREME COURT WILDCARD
IS MAINLY DESCRIBES IT. IS
THERE ANY POSSIBILITY THAT THAT
THAT COMES IN IS THAT IS THAT
THE FINAL HAIR MARRY?
>> I THINK IT IS, BUT IT'S A
REAL HAIL MARY THAT'S ALMOST
DURING THE BALL OUTSIDE THE
STADIUM.
>> I LIKE IT. WE'RE USING ALL
THE RELIGIOUS AND SPORTS
ANALOGIES
>> EVERYTHING WOULD GO AHEAD.
>> AND PARTLY BECAUSE THE
IMMUNITY QUESTION THAT HE'S IS
RAISING IS NOT THE SAME AS THE
SUPREME COURT IS CURRENTLY
DECIDING THAT HE IS IMMUNE FROM
ACTUALLY BEING TRIED FROM
PROSECUTION. HE'S REALLY
TRYING TO SAY BECAUSE OF
PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, SOME
EVIDENCE CAN'T BE USED AGAINST
ME SO NOT THE KIND OF CASE THAT
THE COURT WOULD TAKE UP SO TO
HAVE TO BE SOME THINGS SO
BIZARRE FOR THEM TO DRESS IT.
AND IT'S NOT EVEN A RULING ON
THE MERITS. THE JUDGE ACTUALLY
JUST SAID YOUR MOTION IS
COMPLETELY UNTIMELY. YOU HAD A
TIME TO DO IT, AND THEN YOU
WAITED UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE,
EVEN FOR ME TO SUSPECT YOU HAVE
OTHER MOTIVES FOR DOING IT. SO
THEN ACTUALLY HAVE TO BE
APPEALING LIKE, OH, WE SHOULD
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUBMIT THE
MOTION, NOT THE QUESTION. I'M
IMMUNITY ITSELF. SO THAT JUST
SEEMS HE SHOULD THROW THE BALL,
BUT IT'S VERY UNLIKELY THAT IT
LANDS. ALL RIGHT,
>> SO SO STEPHANIE, THE CONTEXT
OF THIS OBVIOUSLY TRUMP'S LEGAL
TEAM KNOWS THESE, THESE DON'T,
THESE AREN'T SERIOUS LEGAL
MOVES. THEY KNOW THAT THEY'RE
DOING IT, OBVIOUSLY BECAUSE HE
WANTS THEM TO DO IT. SO EPIS
LAST MOMENT, THERE'S THIS
FRENETIC DESIRE TO HAVE THIS
CASE DELAYED SO WHY IS TRUMP
DOING THAT? STEPHANIE SO THIS
CASE, MANY PEOPLE HAVE SAID IS
PROBABLY THE LEAST DAMAGING
AGAINST HIM. I DON'T DISAGREE
WITH THAT, HOWEVER, THIS IS
VERY PERSONAL TO HIM. THIS IS
AN EMBARRASSMENT TO HIM FOUR
WITH HIS FAMILY AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY, WITH HIS WIFE
MELANIA. AND I SPENT A TON OF
TIME WITH HER WHEN THE NEWS WAS
BREAKING ABOUT STORMY DANIELS
WHEN WE WERE IN THE WHITE
HOUSE. AND THEN OF COURSE WITH
KAREN MCDOUGAL, WHO WAS THE
FORMER PLAYBOY PLAYMATE. WHEN
THOSE CAME OUT THAT HE
ALLEGEDLY HAD THESE AFFAIRS AND
SHE DIDN'T TAKE IT LIGHTLY AT
ALL. WE WENT TO THE STATE OF
THE UNION SEPARATELY. SHE
REFUSED TO WALK OUT TO MARINE
ONE WITH HIM BECAUSE SHE DID
NOT WANT TO BE LIKE HILLARY
CLINTON AND STANDING BY HER
MAN. SHE'S A VERY INDEPENDENT
AND STRONG WOMAN AND I MIGHT
ADD, THERE HAVE BEEN ARTICLES
JUST RECENTLY THAT SHE'S HIS
SECRET WEAPON FOR THIS FOR THIS
UPCOMING CAMPAIGN. AND SO I
WOULD IMAGINE THAT SHE IS
PUSHING HIM TO MAKE THIS STOP.
I WOULD IMAGINE THAT SHE WILL
PUSH HIM TO GO ON THE STAND AND
DEFEND HIMSELF BECAUSE THIS IS
THIS IS VERY, VERY EMBARRASSING
FOR HER. IT'S HUMILIATING FOR
HER. AND I CAN GUARANTEE YOU
THAT SHE'S NOT HAPPY RIGHT NOW
AND THAT HE'S QUITE WORRIED
ABOUT THAT.
>> ALL RIGHT. SO HIM GOING ON
THE STAND, RIGHT
>> IN THIS
>> CASE, OBVIOUSLY, HE TRIES TO
MAKE IT ABOUT WHETHER HE DID OR
DID NOT SLEEP WITH STORMY
DANIELS THIS CASE IS ACTUALLY
ABOUT HUSH BUDDING PAYMENTS
WHICH WERE PAID AS TO WHETHER
THEY WERE DONE TO INFLUENCE THE
ELECTION, RIGHT? IT'S ABOUT
SOMETHING ELSE, BUT
NONETHELESS, HE, BECAUSE OF
WHAT STEPHANIE SAID, IS GOING
TO MAKE IT ABOUT THAT OTHER
THING, WHETHER HE DID OR
DIDN'T
>> DOES HE GO ON A STAND?
>> I THINK IT'D BE IN DEEP
TROUBLE AT ONE LEVEL. IT
ACTUALLY DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER
OR NOT THEY HAD AN AFFAIR
BECAUSE IT'S ALL ABOUT WHETHER
OR NOT THEY WERE TRYING TO
SILENCE HER WRITING.
>> IT'S ALMOST YEAH THE DECIR
DIDN'T DID THEY WRITE AND THEN
WE'VE SEEN HIM OPERATE KIND OF
ON THE STAND UNDER PRESSURE IN
A COUPLE OF SITUATIONS IN WHICH
IT DIDN'T GO WELL FOR HIM. SO
THE E JEAN CARROLL DEPOSITION
DOES NOT GO WELL FOR HIM. YOU
ACTUALLY A THE WOMEN LAWYER
WHO'S REPRESENTING E. JEAN
CARROLL AND HE REPEATS THE
HOLLYWOOD ACCESS TAPE IN FRONT
OF HER IN A WAY THAT'S JUST
VERY BAD. RAMAN VERY DAMAGING
FOR HIM. AND THEN IN THE CIVIL
FRAUD CASE, THE JUDGE ACTUALLY
SAYS THAT WHEN TRUMP WAS ON THE
STAND, HE ENDED UP BEING NON
CREDIBLE. HE HURT HIS CASE. SO
I THINK IT'D BE VERY BAD AND
FOR HIM FOR THAT REASON, BUT
FOR PERSONAL REASONS, HAVING TO
DO WITH HIS WIFE TRYING TO TRY
TO WIN PUBLIC ATTENTION OR THE
PUBLIC STORY OR NARRATIVE
THAT'S A DIFFERENT MATTER. BUT
FOR LEGAL MATTER HAD BEEN DEEP
IN DEEP TROUBLE AND THAT IS
ULTIMATELY WHAT I MEAN, WHAT
ULTIMATELY MATTERS WN IT
COMES TO THE OUTCOME? THERE'S
ALSO THE ISSUE OF THOSE, THOSE
SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS AND I
MENTIONED ONE OF THEM WERE
TRUMP IN COMPLIMENTING JUST
STORMY DANIELS, FORMER LAWYER
MICHAEL AVANADE, WHO HAS NOW
GONE FULL BORE ON TEAM TRUMP
SLAMS A STORMY DANIELS AND
MICHAEL COHEN AS WHAT WERE THE
WORD SLEAZE BAGS AND LIARS AND
THINGS LIKE THAT. THERE'S A
LITTLE BIT MORE THAT HAPPENED
HERE WHEN I SPOKE TO THE
DIRECTOR OF THE NEW DOCUMENT OR
WE JUST SAW STORMY DANIELS
SPEAKING IN THAT NEW DOCUMENT
OR I WANT TO PLAY MORE FROM IT
IN TERMS OF WHAT STORMY DANIELS
DESCRIBED AS TO WHAT HAPPENED
TO HER AFTER TRUMP WAS INDICTED
IN THIS CASE AND SHE WAS THE
NAME AT THE CENTER OF IT.
HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED.
>> BACK IN 2018. THAT WAS STUFF
LIKE LIAR GOLD DIGGER
>> THIS TIME AROUND IS VERY
DIFFERENT.
>> IT
>> IS DIRECT THREATS IT IS.
I'M GOING TO COME TO YOUR
HOUSE AND SLIT YOUR THROAT.
YOUR DAUGHTER SHOULD BE
EUTHANIZED THEY'RE NOT EVEN
USING ACCOUNTS THEY'RE USING
THEIR REAL ACCOUNTS
>> SO IN THAT CONTEXT, TODAY,
TRUMP COMES OUT AND SAYS WHAT
HE SAYS ON SOCIAL MEDIA, IS
THAT A VIOLATION OF THE GAG
ORDER? AND HE PUTTING STORMY
DANIELS, WHO IS OBVIOUSLY GONNA
BE THE WITNESS AT THE CENTER AT
ONE OF THE WITNESSES AT THE
CENTER OF THIS IN REAL DANGER?
>> SO I THINK THE SHORT ANSWER
IS YES IN MY EXPERIENCE, WHEN
JUDGES MAKE ORDERS. SO SPECIFIC
AS THE JUDGE DID IN THIS CASE,
RIGHT? I MEAN, IT WASN'T JUST A
YOU CAN'T SAY ANYTHING ABOUT
ANYONE WHICH WOULD BE TOO
BROAD. IT WAS ABOUT THE
SPECIFIC WITNESSES IN THE CASE
AND THAT YOU CAN'T SEE THEY
THINGS THAT WILL CAUSE
INTIMIDATION AND THAT WILL
PREJUDICE THE JURY. I MEAN,
THAT'S THE OTHER PART OF THIS.
YES.
>> THIS CAN LEAD TO
>> INCREASED THREATS WHICH ARE
HORRIBLE. THE THREAT SHE'S
DESCRIBING THERE AGAINST HER,
ALTHOUGH I THINK THOSE ARE
GOING TO HAPPEN REGARDLESS, BUT
I'M SURE THERE IS A LIKELY
UPTICK IN THESE AFTER A POST
LIKE THIS. BUT IT ALSO, I MEAN,
WE ARE NOW DAYS AWAY FROM A
TRIAL STARTING. THE JUDGE IS
TRYING TO PROTECT THE INTEGRITY
OF THE TRIAL WITH THE ORDER.
>> RIGHT. THE WITNESSES NEED TO
BE JUDGED BY THE JURY. THAT IS
STARTING TO BE CHOSEN ALREADY
BECAUSE THE QUESTIONNAIRES HAVE
FANOUT. THE JURORS NEED TO
JUDGE THE WITNESSES BY THEIR
TESTIMONY IN COURT WITH
INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE JUDGE. I
MEAN, THERE'S A PROCESS FOR A
REASON. AND SO TRUMP COMING OUT
AND CALLING THEM LIARS IS ABOUT
AS STARK A VIOLATION AS YOU CAN
GET.
>> AND SO STEPHANIE TRUMP.
KNOWS THAT. IS HE TAUNTING THE
JUDGE ME? DOES HE WANT TO FACE
POSSIBLE JAIL AND SEE IF THE
JUDGE WILL ACTUALLY DO IT FOR
VIOLATING THESE GAG ORDERS
>> HE DEFINITELY DOES NOT WANT
TO FACE JAIL. I CAN GUARANTEE
YOU THAT, BUT AS HE TALKED TO
THE JUDGE, ABSOLUTELY. I MEAN,
HE'S HAD HOW MANY GAG ORDERS
ALREADY. I KNOW WE GOT FINED
LIKE $10,000 FOR VIOLATING IT.
ONE TIME, BUT IT'S ALMOST LIKE
SOME OF THESE JUDGES ARE
BENDING OVER BACKWARDS SO THAT
HE'S NOT LOOKING PERSECUTED
WHERE I BELIEVE I COULD BE
WRONG. THE LEGAL EXPERTS MIGHT
KNOW BETTER, BUT OTHER PEOPLE
WOULD HAVE BEEN THROWN IN JAIL
BY NOW FOR SO DEFIANTLY GOING
AGAINST THESE ORDERS FROM A
JUDGE. SO HE THINKS HE'S NOT
GONNA GET ANY CONSEQUENCES
BECAUSE HE HASN'T SO FAR,
WHICH IS HOW TRUMP LIVES. THINK
ABOUT HIS WHOLE LIFE. HE
HASN'T HAD ANY CONSEQUENCES SO
FAR. SO HE'S GOING TO KEEP
DOING IT ABSOLUTELY. UNTIL
THERE IS AN ACTUAL CONSEQUENCES
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