How will Israel and the US respond to Iran's attack on Israel? | DW News
Summary
TLDRIn a significant escalation, Iran launched an aerial assault on Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, most of which were intercepted by Israel's Air Defense Force and international allies. The attack, claimed by Iran as retaliation for an attack on its consulate in Syria, marks the first direct military engagement with Israel. International condemnation has been widespread, with the US reaffirming its support for Israel and calling for a diplomatic response. The situation remains tense as the potential for further escalation looms, with global implications for regional stability and energy markets.
Takeaways
- đš Iran launched an aerial assault on Israel involving over 300 missiles and drones, marking the first direct military attack by Iran on Israel.
- đĄïž Israel's Iron Dome air defense system, with assistance from the US and other strategic partners, intercepted almost all incoming missiles and drones, with 99%æćç.
- đ„ Despite the high volume of projectiles, only minor damage was reported in Israel, and one child was critically injured.
- đïž The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack was in retaliation for an alleged Israeli attack on Iran's consulate in Syria on April 1st, which resulted in 16 deaths, including Iranian generals.
- đ International condemnation of Iran's actions was widespread, with leaders from the US, UK, and other countries expressing support for Israel and calling for de-escalation.
- đ Following the attack, US President Joe Biden communicated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reiterating the United States' ironclad support for Israel and emphasizing the need for diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation.
- đïž UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres criticized the Iranian escalation, and an emergency UN Security Council meeting was called to address the situation.
- đ The US and Israel are expected to consider their next steps carefully, with the US urging against a wider regional escalation.
- đ€ Israel's Defense Minister Yav Galant praised the Israeli forces and acknowledged the support from allies during the attack.
- đ The situation has raised concerns about the potential for further escalation and the impact on regional stability and global energy markets.
Q & A
What event triggered Iran's aerial assault on Israel?
-Iran's aerial assault was in retaliation for an attack on its Consulate in Syria on April 1st, which resulted in the deaths of 16 people, including several Iranian generals.
How did Israel respond to the missile and drone attack?
-Israel's Air Defense Force, supported by strategic partners, intercepted almost all of the incoming missiles and drones, with 99%æćç. However, some ballistic missiles reached Israeli territory, causing minor damage and injuring a child.
What was the international reaction to Iran's attack on Israel?
-The attack was widely condemned internationally. President Joe Biden reiterated the United States' ironclad support for Israel, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres criticized the serious escalation by Iran, and the UN Security Council called for an emergency meeting. Germany's foreign minister, Heiko Maas, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also condemned the attack, expressing concerns about regional stability.
What was the role of the United States in this incident?
-The United States provided significant support to Israel during the attack. President Biden confirmed that US forces helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles launched from Iran. Additionally, the US plans to convene the G7 countries to plan a diplomatic response to the attack.
How did the Israeli public experience the attack?
-Air raid sirens sounded across Israel, and explosions were heard in Jerusalem. The Israeli authorities initially asked people to stay close to air raid shelters, but later gave the all-clear. The event was described as a tense and noisy night, with chaos in the streets and people running for cover.
What are the potential implications of this direct attack on Israel by Iran?
-This marks the first time Iran has launched a direct military attack on Israel, despite decades of hostilities. The event could potentially escalate the conflict between the two nations and possibly involve other regional actors, leading to a wider regional conflict.
What is the current status of the airspace and civilian safety in Israel following the attack?
-The airspace has been reopened, and Israeli authorities have given the all-clear, indicating that civilians no longer need to stay close to air raid shelters. However, the Israeli Army remains on high alert.
What was the strategic significance of the attack's timing and execution?
-The attack's timing, two weeks after the incident in Syria, and its execution, with a large number of drones and missiles, were intended to demonstrate Iran's capabilities and willingness to retaliate. However, the lack of significant damage and casualties could impact the perception of Iran's military effectiveness.
What are the potential next moves for Israel in response to the attack?
-Israel's response will be determined by its war cabinet, considering the advice and intelligence from its allies. The options range from a measured response targeting the military installations that launched the attack to a more aggressive approach that could involve Iran's nuclear program.
How might this incident affect energy markets and global shipping?
-While the current situation has not significantly affected energy exports, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy supply route, could have significant global implications. Increased tensions could lead to higher shipping insurance costs and potential delays in shipping, impacting global energy markets.
What diplomatic efforts are being made to deescalate the situation?
-The United States and other countries, including Germany, have been engaging in diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. The G7 meeting and the UN Security Council's emergency meeting are part of these efforts to encourage a return to measured responses and prevent a full-scale regional conflict.
Outlines
đ„ Iran's Aerial Assault on Israel
The Israeli Army reported an aerial attack launched by Iran, involving over 300 missiles and drones. Almost all the missiles were intercepted by Israel, aided by the United States, the UK, and Jordan. Air raid sirens sounded across Israel, with explosions heard in Jerusalem. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed the assault was in retaliation for an attack on its consulate in Syria on April 1st, which killed 16 people, including several Iranian generals. This marks the first direct military attack on Israel by Iran, leading to widespread international condemnation. President Joe Biden reiterated the United States' unwavering support for Israel, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres criticized Iran's serious escalation. Israeli authorities have since given an all-clear, but the situation remains tense.
đ€ International Response and US Support
US President Joe Biden announced a G7 meeting to plan a diplomatic response to Iran's attack. After speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden praised Israel's defense capabilities and confirmed that US forces assisted in intercepting drones and missiles. The US administration is keen on preventing further escalation, urging measured responses. The UN Security Council called for an emergency meeting, and Germany's Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, condemned the attack, fearing regional chaos. Israeli Defense Minister Yav Galant praised the Israeli forces and allies for their support during the attack.
đ€ Analyzing Iran's Motives and Future Scenarios
DW's Middle East analyst, Shaie Rosenes, discussed the ease of Israel and the United States agreeing on a response to Iran's attack. The US sees the attack as mostly declarative, with minimal damage, while Israel views it as unprecedented and an attack on its sovereignty. The conversation between the two nations is expected to be a back-and-forth on how to agree on a response. The analyst also touched on the fact that Iran's response, though muted, indicates a shift from shadow warfare to direct attacks, depending on Israel's reaction. The discussion highlighted the delicate balance of power and the potential for further escalation if deterrence is not reestablished.
đ UN and International Stance on the Crisis
The UN Mission of Iran announced that the attack was a form of self-defense and declared the matter closed from their side, aiming to prevent further escalation. The Security Council is set to discuss the attack, and the UN's stance is crucial in maintaining international order. The episode also examined Iran's strategy, which involved announcing the attack in advance to minimize damage to Israel, and the potential implications for both sides' deterrence capabilities. The conversation underscored the complexity of the situation, with both sides needing to find a new equilibrium and the potential for uncontrollable escalation if missteps occur.
đą Regional Proxy Actions and Energy Market Implications
Hans Yakob Schindler from the Counter Extremism Project discussed Iran's proxies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels, and their potential actions in response to the attack. He highlighted Iran's past extra-regional attacks and the varying degrees of control it has over its proxies. Schindler also addressed the impact on energy markets, especially given the seizure of an Israeli-owned ship by Iran and the potential risk to the energy supply route in the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that any escalation in the region could significantly affect global energy prices and emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts to deescalate the situation.
đïž Diplomatic Efforts for De-escalation
Prior to the attack, the American administration made extensive diplomatic efforts to prevent it, urging various countries to dissuade Iran. Despite these efforts, the attack occurred, leading to an emergency G7 meeting and a Security Council session. China and Russia have also shown interest in preventing the situation from escalating further. The focus now lies on Israel's decision on how to respond, as the potential for escalation remains high. Schindler emphasized that while Iran can initiate escalation, it rarely has control over when it ends, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the situation.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄAerial Assault
đĄIron Dome
đĄInternational Condemnation
đĄRetaliatory Attack
đĄDeterrence
đĄProxy War
đĄUN Security Council
đĄCritical Injury
đĄDiplomatic Response
đĄStrategic Partners
Highlights
Iran launched an aerial assault on Israel with over 300 missiles and drones.
Almost all the missiles were intercepted by Israel, with assistance from the United States, the UK, and Jordan.
Air Raid Sirens sounded across Israel, and explosions were heard in Jerusalem.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claims the assault is in retaliation for an attack on its Consulate in Syria on April 1st, which killed 16 people, including several Iranian generals.
This marks the first time Iran has launched a direct military attack on Israel despite decades of hostilities.
International condemnation of the Iranian attack has been widespread, with President Joe Biden reiterating the United States' ironclad support for Israel.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres criticized the serious escalation by Iran, and the UN Security Council has called for an emergency meeting.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also condemned the attack, expressing concerns over regional chaos and pledging support for Israeli security.
Israeli authorities have given the all-clear, with people no longer needing to stay close to air raid shelters.
Correspondent Amen ISF reported a tense and noisy night in Jerusalem with active air defense systems.
Israeli military claims that over 300 drones and missiles were launched from Iran and other countries, with 99% intercepted before reaching Israeli territory.
One ballistic missile hit the Nevatim Air Base in the south, causing minor damage and critically injuring a child.
US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the attack, with the US emphasizing the success of the defense against the attack and urging a measured response.
The Biden Administration is keen on preventing a wider regional escalation and is reaching out to partners and allies for a diplomatic response.
Israel's Defense Minister Yav Galant praised the Israeli forces for blocking the attack and acknowledged the support from allies.
DW's Middle East analyst Shaie Rosenanes discussed the potential for Israel and the United States to agree on a clear response to the Iranian attack.
Hans Yakob Schindler from the Counter Extremism Project commented on the attack, emphasizing the loss of deterrence on both sides and the potential for further escalation.
The attack highlights the delicate balance in the Middle East and the need for both sides to find a new equilibrium.
The incident may have long-term implications for energy markets and shipping routes, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major energy supply route.
Diplomatic efforts from Israel's allies in Europe, including Germany, are underway to deescalate the situation.
Transcripts
an aerial assault launched by Iran
against Israel overnight the Israeli
Army says more than 300 missiles and
drones were fired almost all the
missiles were intercepted by Israel and
the United States the UK and Jordan also
shot down drones now Air Raid Sirens
sounded across Israel and explosions
were heard in
Jerusalem the Iranian revolutionary
guard says the assault is in retaliation
for an attack on its Consulate in Syria
on April 1st which killed 16 people in
including several Iranian generals it is
the first time Iran has launched a
direct military attack on Israel despite
Decades of
hostilities now there has been
widespread International condemnation of
the Iranian attack President Joe Biden
repeated the United States Ironclad
support for Israel Secretary General
Antonio gues criticized what he called a
serious escalation by Iran the UN
Security Council has called an emergency
meeting Germany's foreign minister
analena B also condemned the attack
saying it could plunge the entire region
into chaos and British prime minister
Rishi sunak called The Assault Reckless
and vowed to stand up for Israeli
security Israeli authorities have now
given the all clear meeting people no
longer need to stay close to air raage
shelters but our correspondent amen ISF
says it was a tense and Noisy Night in
Jerusalem as you can hear the sirens are
going off as you can hear sirens are
going off in Jerusalem you can see Iron
Dome is active uh the air defense is
active in the skies uh so we're going to
head to a shelter now but uh a lot of
Chaos in the streets a lot of screaming
uh people running uh for
cover let's get the very latest from our
correspondent Tanya Kramer joining us
now live from Jerusalem Tanya welcome
tell us the latest about the situation
in Israel this morning
while it is quiet for now but the Army
says they're remaining on high alert
however the airspace has reopened uh
we've been told uh so um but this comes
of course for many for Israelis and
Palestinians uh you know waking up after
such a night this is somewhat a
different reality after these direct and
unprecedented attacks uh from Iran uh to
uh on Israel now um are hearing more
details now also coming in this morning
from the Israeli military they said that
over 300 rones and missiles were
launched from Iran but also from other
countries such as uh from libanon there
were Rockets from Yemen but also some
from uh Iraq um they're saying that most
were intercepted uh um before they
reached Israeli territory by the Air
Defense Force by a coalition of
strategic partners as they are as the
Israeli military has said and they also
said that
99% uh were uh intercepted so uh with
some ballistic missiles however reaching
uh and hitting uh somewhere in Israel
one of them was hitting in they said the
never teim Air Base in the South uh we
don't have a full assessment there but
they're saying it was only minor damage
but also uh a child had been uh has been
uh injured critically injured
potentially by shner now of course after
all this happened the question is now uh
you know what will Israel do uh what how
will they retaliate how will their
response to this that is indeed the big
question here Tanya what do you think
Israel's next move will be are there
signs that we might see a swift
[Music]
retaliation well this is of course the
question right now there has been also a
phone call between US President Joe
Biden and prime minister Benyamin
Netanyahu in the course of the night and
there is an indication that the United
States they don't want to see a wider
Regional uh escalation coming uh out of
that uh they have also said that uh the
US helped actually Israel to take down
nearly all of the incoming drones and
missiles and that Israel should see this
as a success in a way uh that they could
uh um reboot all the those most at least
of those missiles coming in now uh it
will be in the hands now of the war
cabinet to decide the next steps uh
prime minister Benyamin nany and defense
minister um uh YF galand and we just
have to wait and see uh whether you know
how they will decide whether there will
be
retaliation and uh you know this could
affect of course most of the region here
and uh many don't want to see of course
wider escalation Tanya thank you so much
for your reporting that is Tanya Kramer
for us in
Jerusalem now US President Joe Biden
says he will convene the G7 countries to
plan a diplomatic response to Iran's
attack Biden announced the meeting after
speaking to Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu by phone now Biden
told Netanyahu Israel demonstrated a
remarkable ability to defend against
unprecedented attacks sending a clear
message that Israel's security cannot be
threatened Biden also said the US has
not seen any attacks on its own troops
in the region but confirmed US forces
helped Israel take down nearly all of
drones of the drones and missiles
launched from
Iran let's get the perspective from
Washington DP DC and speak to our
reporter Stefan Simons Stefan Biden has
cut short his weekend trip to Delaware
to hold crisis talks with his National
Security team we know his defense
secretary uh Lloyd Austin earlier spoke
to his Israeli counterpart what has the
US said publicly about this
attack well of course the US president
as well as the entire Administration was
very very quickly to stand by Israel
officially and with statements this
Ironclad standing by Israel quote comes
from National Security Council statement
which was given on Saturday now the
president has reiterated that this will
be a us position that when Israel is um
attacked and has to defend itself uh the
US will do everything it can to support
Israel and so it did uh during this
attack from or drone and missile attack
by Iran uh the US is saying that it shut
down itself 70 missile SL drones uh
during this attack and helped Israel by
doing so defend itself but as um said by
my colleague Tanya Jerusalem the Biden
Administration is very very very keen on
really putting a lid on this now uh Iran
apparently has uh concluded or has said
the UN Mission the the Iranian Mission
permanent Mission at the UN has uh early
on relatively early on Saturday still uh
said okay that concludes the matter for
us we retaliate retaliated and the Biden
Administration is now as we also
reported uh in telephone calls and
communication with Israeli counterparts
saying now a a return to measured uh
responses is necessary not a retaliation
by Israel to not escalate this into a
wider fullscale regional conflict so
let's dig in a little bit more into into
Washington's support of course support
for Israel a Mainstay of of us um
Foreign Affairs over decades what do you
think Ironclad support promised here is
going to mean in concrete terms
two-prong approach uh that is militarily
speaking the United States has many many
assets Navy assets air defense Assets in
the region Red Sea uh uh straight of
Horus Eastern Mediterranean uh this is
sophisticated Weaponry uh fighter jets
and whatsoever um and there will be
defensive support for Israel uh that
doesn't mean boots on the ground US
military engagement with US soldiers
anywhere near or close or anywhere in
the region there uh on behalf of Israel
or anybody else uh but support with
military assets specifically
intelligence
geospatial um uh radar information and
intelligence etc etc uh this will come
from the United States and will be
continuously provided to Israel um
that's what that means on the other hand
it's of course diplomatic support and
that is and we see already the results
of this um it is reaching out to all
part partners and allies of the United
States not just NATO Partners uh and and
friends and uh in the in in Europe it
also partners and allies in the Middle
East and meaning by this Arab Partners
Qatar Saudi Arabia Jordan um the Egypt
those countries the US is trying to make
sure that um all of them are on the same
page in trying to deescalate here now uh
meaning to really prevent uh a fullscale
regional conflict from happening thank
you so much that is DW's Stefan Simons
in Washington
DC Israel's defense minister yav Galant
has praised the Israeli forces for
blocking the attack and he paid tribute
to Israel's allies for their
support the state of Israel has faced an
attack of hundreds of missiles and
drones the Israel Defense Forces have
done an impressive job of blocking the
offensive
together with the United States and
other partners we managed to defend the
territory of the state of
Israel the whole world saw tonight who
Iran really
is it's a terror state that attacks
Israel from a distance of 1,500 km and
tries to activate all of its proxies
but the world has also seen the power of
a coalition and how Israel stands
alongside the Us and other countries to
block this
attack and in the studio I'm now joined
by DW's Middle East analyst shaie
rosanes shaie good to see you again how
easy do you think it is going to be for
Israel and the United States to agree on
a clear response to this Iranian attack
it seems to be another uh battle coming
you know when it comes to Israel and
America uh trying to find together a a
response because the way the Americans
see it uh Israel needs to respond
according to the result which seems to
be quite a you know almost a poor one um
if the Iranians wanted to it seems like
the way
American Defense Forces are interpreting
is that that this was mostly a
declarative uh statement by the Iranians
we have shown to the Israelis we can we
are not afraid but eventually there's
very little uh damage done on the ground
more limited than it could have been
correct um and then on the other hand
when you look at Israelis they they
mostly focus on the fact this is
unprecedented um and that this is you
know an attack on Israel's sovereignity
and they uh focus on the intentions of
Iran and so now it's the battle between
Israel I mean the battle would be a
harsh word but it's going to be back and
forth on how to agree on a response is
it going to be determined by the intent
and um this is what Israel would want to
do and then the there's the Americans we
see them they're trying to bring down
the escalation they want to they are
very much not interested in a in a in an
escalation into their the regional war
and it's going to take we'll see a back
and forth the next day is definitely and
what does it tell you the fact that this
response from Iran was more muted it
sounds like than it could have been and
the fact that it took two weeks after
this attack on Iran's Embassy in
Damascus on April 1st um to see this
kind of response what does that tell you
well first of all there's a very clear
um chain of hierarchy and
decision-making in Iran that takes time
but it's also you know we we're used to
seeing this shedow war between Israel
and Iran this back and forth of of
attacks cyber attacks and so on a lot of
it uh in the shadows a lot of it not
unannounced and the decision here
definitely was was for the Iranians was
determined you know because of the
Americans uh and we've seen a lot of
communication Intelligence coming uh
about that it's back and forth there was
a need for the Iranians to show that
they are not afraid and this is also
something that connects back to October
7th the biggest asset that Israel lost
on October 7th is deterrence uh when the
Israelis launched the attack in Damascus
on October on April 1st um just two
weeks ago um the Assumption was that the
Iranians are not going to operate uh so
severely definitely not from Iranian
ground definitely not directly into
Israeli soil so the fact that the
Iranians have done that shows us there
something in the very delicate uh
balance in this war that has been Never
official but very clear has been broken
do you think we've reached in that sense
a point of no return here that we are
moving from this kind of Shadow Warfare
to a direct attack on Israeli very much
depends on the is response and this is
exactly what the Americans are trying to
do they're trying to prevent a response
that will you know bring to an
escalation but Israelis feel like one of
their their important needs in in their
long-term defense strategy is rebuilding
theer and that can only be done the way
they see it by being very aggressive in
their responses to any uh attempt for
any attack uh I don't think we will see
an immediate response in Israel um this
is also partially why you know the the
the pace that we're seeing in this kind
of conflict between Israel and Iran
takes time but the last word has not
been said yet shie thank you as always
that's our Middle East analyst shie
rosanes and we can speak now to Hans
yakob Schindler a senior director of the
counter extremism project thank you so
much for speaking with us on DW news I'd
like to start with your thoughts on what
has happened here what do you make of
the attack last
night thank you so much for having me it
was clearly a Iranian escalation which
is needless um and un unfortunately
really complicates things but it was an
escalation again with an Iranian twist
so what happened is immediately after
the drones and the rockets were launched
from Iranian territory Iranian State TV
officially announced the launch giving
the Israelis hours in the case of the
drones and very long time in the case of
the missiles to actually get ready to
defend themselves including with the
help of the Americans so clearly the
Iranians wanted to show make a show
force and minimizing the damage that
that show force would uh meet upon
Israel um in including then of course
getting their un Mission here in New
York and there's going to be a security
council meeting later today uh evening
time in Germany here in New York on this
attack uh getting the UN mission of all
places to announce that this could be it
from our side this is our retaliation
Case Closed if you choose to close the
case and then having the permanent
representative to say we no longer want
any escalation and we only made use of
our right to self-defense according to
the UN Charter which of course codly
negates the the point that it has to be
a proportional response and 300 rockets
and drones uh is not exactly a part in
the eyes of theion a proportional
response so if I understand you
correctly it sounds like you think in
this case Iran needs needed to be seen
to be doing something in response do you
think that Iran could have mounted a
stronger attack and whether this was
something it
considered yeah I mean they haven't put
out all the stops uh don't forget uh
hisbah is in effect fact uh the
extension of the Iranian regime in in
Lebanon it does have a very sizable
Arsenal that has the potential to
actually overwhelm Israeli air defenses
as we have seen in Ukraine it's not the
individual Shai drones of the Iranians
are the problem it's the number of Shah
drones that are fired that is the
problem and this number that was fired
last night clearly was not sufficient to
overwhelm the Israeli air defenses nor
in my opinion was it designed to do so
it was simply aure Force inside Iran now
of course the regime celebrates this as
a great success but the problem is both
sides have lost deterrence here the
Israelis have lost dets because it is
unprecedented that the first time since
the Islamic revolution that Iran
attacked itself from its territory not
via proxy Israel but also the Iranian
really failure to hit anything literally
anything in Israel um means they now
just demonstrated that potentially their
systems are not good enough to withstand
Israel which then of course puts water
on the middle of those in Israel who say
look this is a good time to do a very
forceful response and will'll pay a very
little price because the Iranians just
showed us their system are not as good
as they thought they were so with
deterrence compromised as you say Do you
think that now after after almost more
than a decade of proxy war some kind of
threshold has been crossed here where
we've seen a direct Iranian attack on
Israeli
soil um just a small correction the
proxy war between Israel and Iran didn't
start a decade ago it started much much
longer ago from the very beginning the
enmity in against Israel was part of the
core ideological tenants of the Islamic
Republic of Iran so it's been at a
higher level in the last decade but it's
always been there it's always been one
of the as I said core ideological themes
of the Iranian regime um what happened
now is really we are in a new situation
in the Middle East and there's really no
good way out of this because both sides
have to find a new equilibrium again and
we are not yet there that it becomes
clear what that new equilibrium actually
would mean how concerned are you about
the likelihood of escalation here how do
you expect the Israelis to
react I mean it's a very very very tense
situation and any misstep from either
one of the sides um is going to really
lead to a potentially uncontrollable
escalation here we already have a
virtual shooting War not only with Gaza
but also with the houthis and hispa for
many many months since October 7
and we now have this direct attack here
if the Israeli response um is attacking
inside Iran and then there are also
levels of escalation that the Israelis
could choose they could just simply
attack some of the military
installations from which those rockets
and drones were launched this would be a
classic us response to hit those places
from which you were attacked but the
Israelis could also decide to First
finally solve what the Israeli
government has always said is the the
major threat the actual strategic threat
from Iran is its nuclear program and
attack the the Iranian nuclear
installations inside Iran which would be
another major major escalation hence
these unnamed us officials who are you
know talking to the media here in the
United States saying um Biden said to
Netanyahu we will defend you and we are
iron glad on your side but we will not
support you in any offensive operations
inside Iran now if this is what the
American president has said to the
Israeli Prime Minister whose country
just got attacked it is a very very
unprecedented statement from an American
president and it really shows how deep
deep the concern is in the US
Administration that this now can get out
of control do you think the US
Administration is also concerned about
spread outside the
region well look I mean my personal
assessment was that uh it's very likely
that Iranians would respond with attacks
against Israeli diplomatic and official
institutions outside the region um which
is something that the Iranians had done
before remind you there was attack in
South America in Argentina against a
Embassy and a cultural center in the
1990s even in Berlin where you are right
now in 1992 there was a killing of some
Iranian Exile politicians in the mikonos
attack there was a bombing of Israeli
tourists in 2012 in b as Bulgaria so IR
Iran has demonstrated that it can also
attack and strike outside uh the region
with the help by the way of his
operatives in each one of these cases so
you know there are levels of retaliation
that Iran has not yet taken and what do
you expect Iran's proxies in the region
like Hezbollah and the houthi rebels to
do
here well I mean one has to different
differentiate between um the proxies and
the control that Iran ultimately has
over these proxies now isbah is a 100%
Iranian creation it was at the core of
forming hisbah during the Civil War in
Lebanon in the 1980s from the onset so
hisbah really is an extension of the
Islamic Republic other proxies
especially the houthis have really been
newly added to the Iranian portfolio of
proxies only really after 2015 and the
attack of Saudi Arabia the UAE and Arab
states on the houthis in Yemen did yans
see a opportunity here strengthen their
relationship build up the houthis in
order to essentially let their Regional
rival so Arabia plead now the houthis
are therefore less indebted to the
Iranians than his and therefore Iran
will ever always be able to tell the
houthis to shoot if the Iranians
ultimately can tell the houthis to stop
shooting and they will that Still
Remains to be seen for example we've for
month now really been attempts to tal
calm down the houthis um and to tell
them that it's not worth continuing to
harass shipping in the Red Sea and so
far the Iranians even if they tried
doesn't seem to be able to stop them so
the escalation can also come
inadvertedly by these proxies who are
you know in various measures of control
of Iran now as you say we've seen
shipping disrupted in the Red Sea um
what do you think the effect here might
be on energy markets if we do continue
to see an escalation in the
region so far International transport
has managed to avert a real crisis um um
when it comes to the Red Sea of course
container prices have doubled shipping
Insurance have tripled uh and ships need
to go now around the African continent
which adds 10 days however this is not
really affecting energy exports so far
however the Irani
just before they launched those rockets
and drones actually took a Israeli owned
or link ship to the Zodiac group of a
offer uh the MS MSC Aries in the
straight of pus of the port of Huda vua
hostage essentially Like Pirates took a
helicopter and basically forced the ship
to enter an Iranian Harbor now if this
continues the straight of hus is
actually in a very large energy Supply
Route not only for Saudi and UAE oil but
also for LNG from Qatar which supplies
in a major way both Australia and Japan
and in an increasing manner the European
Union including Germany because as the
German government and the EU signed gas
LG deals with Qatar in part to
substitute the gas we no longer
purchasing from Russia so any trouble in
the straight of pus is of course a major
immed concern for Energy prices on the
globe however this is also a loose loose
proposition for the Iranians because
their tankers also need to leave the
straight for or for moose and the US has
enough military Assets in the Persian
golf to make sure if other ships can't
leave or enter definitely Iranian
tankers also won't leave or enter the
street so this is hopefully a escalation
stage that the Iranians are not
contemplating and take and whatever the
Israel are doing
and I'm curious if you could tell us
what kind of diplomatic efforts we've
seen from Israel's allies in Europe
including Germany to try to deescalate
the situation
here well in the runup to this uh the
American Administration really put out
pulled out all the stops uh they were
very clearly communicating I remind you
President Biden said simply don't that
the Iranians shouldn't attack Israel
they asked China turkey um Germany the
UK European States as well as Arab
states to talk to the Iranians to tell
them not to do this um none of this came
to fruition now of course there is going
to be the G7 meeting later today there's
the security council meeting China has
already warned against escalation it is
certainly not in the interest of Russia
to see its newly found Ally in the
Ukraine war Iran significantly weakened
so there is significantly forces that
can tone down the
side um it all really depends on what
the Israeli decide decides now the
Iranians are in a very uncomfortable
position you always can decide to start
an escalation you rarely are the one who
is deciding when to stop it well thank
you so much for joining us today with
your insights that is Hans yakob
Schindler from the counter extremism
project we appreciate your
time thank you so much for having me
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