Israel's Attack on Iran Triggers Fears of Wider War | Vantage with Palki Sharma

hello namaskar this is first post and

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Sharma

[Music]

after days of speculation Israel has

attacked Iran the target was Isfahan a

city that has Iranian nuclear assets so

what was the

reaction will there be a Counter Strike

what is the world saying and doing what

will it take to restore peace or at

least the absence of war in this region

we'll discuss all of that meanwhile oil

prices continue to rise and this has

little to do with the conflict who is

engineering a global oil

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does it change their life India delivers

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[Music]

Israel has hit back no more speculation

no more dissecting options Benin

Netanyahu has launched air strikes on

Iran the news trickled in this morning

reports of explosions in the skies above

Iran a bit like what Israel reported

last week but this strike appears more

limited it targeted a city in central

Iran a city called ispahan it's around

400 km south of the

capital videos on social media showed

Explosions in the Sky which usually

means one thing projectiles being shot

down by the air defense but the

specifics are not clear in public Israel

has not even confirmed this attack but

us officials did confirm it apparently

they were informed in advance Israel is

said to have shot missiles and drones at

Iran did any of them hit again the US

says they did but Iran is downplaying

the whole thing their state media claims

small drones were fired at them most of

which were shot

down you're seeing isah which is in

complete peace people are living their

normal lives I think 2 or 3 hours

earlier at midnight sounds were heard in

Isfahan Sky based on the information we

acquired several small drones were

flying in the sky over Isfahan which

were fired

at so Iran says no biggie but they did

take precautions this morning major

airports in the country were closed most

flights in the region were also diverted

but later those restrictions were lifted

Iran now says it's it airspace is open

so the assumption is the strike was

limited more symbolic than deadly but

why is fahan it's a strategically

important city you have an Airbase with

fighter jets a missile production

complex and key nuclear facilities in

fact ispahan is very close to Iran's

natan's nuclear site just about 100 kilm

but Israel did not Target it even the

United Nations Atomic Watchdog has

confirmed this they said the nuclear

sites are fine so what was Israel hoping

to achieve well this operation had two

main goals one was was to establish

deterrence Iran had launched missiles

and drones at Israel so Israel wanted to

say you can't do that if you do we will

hit back that's the logic of deterrence

the second goal was to display Israel's

capability Isfahan is deep inside Iran

it's not some remote Border Town so by

targeting this city Israel is sending a

message that nowhere in Iran is safe

which brings us to the reactions how are

Iranians reacting to the strike many of

them have shaken it off some don't even

believe that the strike happened they

couldn't handle Gaza that is close to

its borders attacking Isfahan that is

ridiculous if Israel makes the slightest

mistake the reaction from Iran would be

more severe in a way that silences

Israel and its Master the us

forever what about Israel this morning

Sirens ran across Northern Israel is it

turned out to be a false alarm but the

danger has not passed along with Iran

Israel also struck other targets

explosions were reported in Syria and

Iraq both countries host Iranian proxy

groups plus the hisbah in Lebanon has

stepped up attacks so the next few hours

will be crucial Israel will be keenly

watching for a possible response as for

the people their reaction has been mixed

some say the attack was necessary others

fear what could happen next I think the

attack in Iran is a necessary action in

our environment which is much harsher

than the jungle in

Africa ER animals over there behave much

nicer than human in this area I'm very

sad that Israel attacked Iran and I'm

afraid what will happen now what will be

in

Israel now to the million dollar

question what happens next will there be

more escalation between the two sides

well it seems unlikely at the moment and

there are three reasons why number one

Israel's Behavior there's no chest

thumping no Grand statements in the

media Israel has not even admitted to

the strikes usually that means one thing

Netanyahu considers the matter closed

reason number two Iran's reaction to the

whole thing their state media is

downplaying the strikes most reports

don't even mention Israel if they wanted

escalation we would have seen the

opposite more Israel blaming more

rallying of public opinion and finally

reason number three Global pressure us

officials say they did not approve

Israel's air strike most of the world

says it's time to deescalate the United

States has not been involved in any

offensive operations uh what we're

focused on what the G7 is focused on and

again it's reflected in our statement

and in our conversation is our work to

deescalate uh tensions um to deescalate

from any potential conflict significant

escalation is not in any 's interests

what we want to see is calm heads

prevail across the region it is

absolutely necessary that the region

stays stable and that all sides refrain

from further

action China opposes any actions that

lead to tension and further escalation

of the

situation maybe today's strike will end

this conflict maybe Iran will not

retaliate but a new normal has been

created one where Israel and Iran can

strike each other basically the shadow

war is not Shadow anymore it's out in

the open and that spells chaos for all

of West

Asia it also means chaos in the oil

markets West Asia produces a third of

the world's oil if there is a war here

oil supply will be the first casualty

there would be a shortage and prices

would go up in fact it's already

happening there is a supply shortfall

and this is is Before the War as in a

wider Iran Israel war it is yet to break

out we hope it doesn't but irrespective

oil supplies are already under stress

and prices are expected to remain high

through the year at over $100 per barrel

and this is not due to the conflict in

West Asia this is a deliberate ploy to

shrink supplies and it's being

orchestrated by the US and OPEC two

major players in the global oil Market

their decisions and their actions are

squeezing the PIP Lance let's start with

OPEC that's the organization of

petroleum exporting countries op it's an

oil cartle with the world's biggest

producers as its members there are 13

countries in OPEC they have almost 80%

80 80% of the world's known oil reserves

they produce 40% of the world's oil so

you can say OPEC controls the global oil

markets and their favorite tactic is

production Cuts whenever OPC wants to

make more money they curtail oil

supplies

and that's exactly what they're doing

right now in November last year OPEC met

with its allies they decided to slash

production significantly by how much 2.2

million barrels per day that represents

2% of the world's oil production so

every day the global markets have less

oil available their supply has reduced

by 2% and they had a meeting again in

March they decided to extend production

Cuts till the month of June now this has

pushed up Global prices since December

the price of Brent crude has climbed by

more than 20% that is opec's gift to the

world and the Americans could make it

worse through their sanctions they're

going after oil producing Nations this

month the US sanctioned Venezuela which

is a major producer of both oil and gas

American sanctions Target both

Venezuelan oil and gas so they'll have a

tough time selling it in the

international market Venezuela will not

be able to accept payments in dollar

which is a de facto currency for energy

trade

America's Next Target could be Iran

there is growing speculation that the US

could sanction Iranian oil this is over

the attack on Israel last Sunday as

punishment earlier this week the US

Treasury secretary dropped some

hints the attack by Iran and its proxies

underscores the importance of treasury's

work to use our economic tools to

counter Iran's malign activity

sanctions on Iranian oil will only

worsen the supply situation the US has

already made it hard for the world to

access Russian oil last month Indian

buyers had to reject some oil caros they

came from a company called pjsc softcom

flot now this is a major transporter of

Russian oil last year this company

delivered a fifth of all Russian oil

purchases by India one fifth of them but

now Indian companies are wary of it they

do not want to take deliveries from this

Russian supplier because it faces us

sanctions this is what oil politics

looks like a few powerful players hack

the global market for their own gains

OPEC wants to raise prices the United

States wants to dictate who can sell oil

to whom this must be called out because

it bleeds the global economy especially

countries like India that rely heavily

on oil imports they're sensitive to

price fluctuations OPEC and America are

artificially cutting supplies and

eliminating supplies from the market

Mexico has halted some of its oil

exports countries like Libya and Sudan

are engulfed by conflict so they cannot

boost supplies which leaves us at the

mercy of OPEC and the US it's far from

ideal our world is dealing with a slew

of problems the last thing we need is a

termoil in the oil

Market I know the situation looks

hopeless but on the upside the world has

seen far worse so this two shall pass

the only question is how what will it

take to restore peace in West Asia how

can the region return to

normal there is no Silver Bullet to fix

this conflict but a few steps will help

the first and most pressing one is this

a Seas fire in Gaza the fighting has

been going on for more than 6 months it

has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians

and that is the root problem here Israel

has set itself a very ambitious goal in

Gaza to eliminate the Hamas

but experts say that could be impossible

just consider the current situation

Israel spent months fighting in the

streets of Northern Gaza but then they

moved South which gave Hamas time to

reorganize Reports say they are

reestablishing themselves in the north

plus Israel's Army could be

overstretched they have spent 6 months

in Urban War zones and now they face

threats from Iran and hisbah so Israel

needs to take a call do they go ahead

with the invasion of Rafa do they

refocus on the North or do they pursue a

ceasefire because one thing is clear the

current strategy is not working Israel

is nowhere near getting the hostages

back dozens of them are presumed dead so

a ceasefire is the need of the hour it

would reduce the pressure on Israel's

government it would also put the focus

back on Arab Israel

normalization which brings us to step

two more communication and shuttle

diplomacy and this is very important

during conflicts if if communication is

not clear there will be miscalculations

and miscalculations lead to more

conflict I'll give you two examples from

this standoff first before Israel's

strike on Iran's Consulate in Syria

Reports say they told no one about it

not even the

Americans only moments before the attack

did they alert Washington that too not

to discuss but to inform that they're

going to

strike and now officials are regretting

it they say the attack was a

miscalculation

the second example is before Iran's

response the Iran says they informed the

us about the impending attack and look

what happened 99% of the drones were

shot down so communication and

calculation is key sometimes they avert

conflict sometimes they can minimize the

impact but Netanyahu does not seem

interested so far he's ignored his

allies and Partners at all stages

whether it's the Gaza war or the war in

Lebanon or now in

Iran which brings us to the third

step a possible reig in Israel

netanyahu's popularity is nearing Rock

Bottom around 76% Israelis want him to

resign and you can see why he has no

plan to get the hostages back he has

started a seemingly endless war in Gaza

he has triggered a conflict with Iran

and he has alienated his Western allies

so perhaps nanahu has to go perhaps a

new leadership can give Israel a fresh

start someone who can heal the country

someone who can reassure Israel's allies

which brings us to step four American

policy must change right now it's rooted

in hypocrisy the Americans give military

aid worth billions to Israel Israel uses

that to flatten Gaza then the same

America offers humanitarian Aid to Gaza

how does this policy make sense and

finally step number five probably the

most important step of them all a

two-state solution Palestine must become

a sovereign country because it would

would trigger a chain reaction Saudi

Arabia would would likely recognize

Israel armed Palestinian groups would

lose their rallying

call and a strong Arab Israel Alliance

could

emerge one that would surely deter Iran

I know it's a long shot right now but

it's also a short

shot and some of these steps cannot wait

because the events of this week have

created a new equation in West Asia Iran

says it could riew its nuclear Doctrine

publicly thean has ruled out making a

bomb a nuclear bomb but a review could

change that the regime could actively

pursue a bomb same with Gaza and

offensive in Rafa would be deeply

traumatic it would force Arab states to

abandon Israel completely so time is of

the essence Israel needs to think Beyond

ego and narrow political gains it needs

to think about its future does it want

to be surrounded by enemies and Rivals

forever or does it want to live in

peace now let's take a step back and

look at what started this mess in West

Asia the original conflict between

Israel and

Palestine another blow was dealt to the

Palestinians yesterday this time at the

United Nations the UN Security Council

held a vote yesterday on the question of

palestine's membership to the UN 15

members of the security Council voted

like this will those in favors favor of

the draft resolution contained in

document

s224 SL 312 please raise their

hand okay we' been recorded 12 right

okay those against

thank you

abstentions 12 Security Council Members

voted to allow Palestine to join two

members abstain that's Britain and

Switzerland they chose not to vote and

one loan security council member

rejected the resolution that is the

United States of America so of course

because of how the UN works the

resolution was rejected the US used its

veto and torpedoed Palestinian dreams of

un membership after the veto the US said

this the United States continues to

strongly support a two-state

solution this vote does not reflect

opposition to Palestinian statehood but

instead is an acknowledgement that it

will only come from direct negotiations

between the

parties the US says it strongly supports

a two-state solution but it seems that

strength did not extend to un membership

if the US had not veto the resolution

Palestine would have become the 194th

permanent member of the United

Nations now remember this does not mean

much not on the ground anyway un

membership would not have created a new

country called Palestine it would not

have forced Israel to withdraw its

troops from Gaza or even the West Bank

for that matter nothing would have

really changed on the ground nothing

other than a symbolic ictory for the

Palestinians which they clearly

knew this resolution naturally will not

be the alternative for serious political

negotiations that are time bound to

implement the two-state solution or

relevant Security Council and GA

resolution and to resolve the pending

issues between Palestinians and Israelis

however this resolution will grant hope

to the Palestinian people hope for a

decent life within an independent state

the Palestinian representative said it

was about hope nothing else but that

isn't what the US believes Israel did

not believe it either after the vote

Israel thanked the US for its veto and

it criticized all the other Security

Council Members I explained how the

Palestinian Authority does not meet even

the basic criteria that they have no

authority over their territory and that

the Palestinian Authority is a terror

supporting entity

now the Israeli representative mentioned

something interesting Palestine does not

meet the basic criteria of statehood

they don't have any authority over their

territory passion which is true this is

a map of Israel and the Palestinian

territories based on the 1967 borders on

the bottom left is Gaza the Palestinian

Authority does not control that Gaza is

ruled by Hamas then there is the other

part of Palestine the West Bank it's

called that because it is located on the

West Bank of the Jordan River this is

the territory that the Palestinian

Authority governs except it doesn't

actually govern the area not

independently the Palestinian Authority

manages some Affairs in just these

regions the rest of the area is

administered by Israel they have

controlled this area since the 7th of

June 1967 so technically the Palestinian

Authority is an authority only in

name that is why Israel says it does not

meet the B BAS criteria of statehood and

that is true there is no denying the

reality but here's the catch this has

not stopped the United Nations from

recognizing a member before the UN

admitted Ukraine in 1945 when it was

still part of the Soviet Union it

admitted Monaco in 1993 even though most

of its governance was taken care of by

France so there's definitely a precedent

Palestine could have been made a member

it's not something the UN hasn't done

before most countries think it is time

to allow Palestine to have a seat at the

table from across the world about 140

countries have already recognized the

state of Palestine almost all the

countries are in Asia Africa and South

America India Brazil the Philippines

Poland almost everyone is on board India

supports Palestinian statehood only the

West has not recognized Palestine yet

we've been waiting since

1947 and we are in

2024 admit us to membership ship it's an

investment in

peace no matter how much the

Palestinians plead because the US holds

disproportionate power at the United

Nations because it has a veto Palestine

will not become a UN

member today is a significant day for

India's aspirations as a major defense

manufacturer the Philippines has

received the brahos missiles Manila now

has an Indian Shield to defend itself

against Chinese aggression the Indian

Air Force made the delivery today the

deal was signed 2 years ago the contract

was worth $375 million some notable

firsts come with this deal the brahmos

is India's first major defense export

and the Philippines is the first nation

to get the brahos missile system Manila

has bought three batteries of brahmos

Now One battery of the system has two

missile launchers a radar and a command

and control center so the Philippines

gets three sets of the system from

manila's perspective the deliveries

could not have come at a better time

tensions with China are growing in

recent months the pla the Chinese Army

has become more aggressive they're

targeting ships from the Philippines

firing water cannons at them coast

guards from both sides have clashed

repeatedly on more than one occasion

their ships have collided plus Beijing

has been issuing threats and

warnings the Philippine side on the one

hand induced external forces to

interfere in the South China Sea issue

and intruded into relevant islands and

reefs of China's Nona Ching da on the

other hand it activated its propaganda

machine against China to Hype up the

so-called the big bullying the small and

played victim the Chinese side is

strongly opposed to

this the situation is dangerous and

China's actions could trigger a conflict

so Manila desperately needs an effective

deterrent the brahmos could fit that

role Manila could deploy the system in

the west Philippines Sea that's where

their forces clash with the Chinese

this region is part of the South China

Sea dispute China has been trying to

assert itself here it claims most parts

of the West Philippine SE Chinese ships

are often seen here they try to disrupt

the freedom of movement so deploying the

brahmos in this region would defend

Manila against Chinese ships the missile

has been specifically calibrated for

this Mission Manila has bought a Shore

based anti-missile version of the

brahmos meaning it can it can be

deployed near the sea

if the Chinese engage in aggressive

behavior the brahmos can be pointed at

their

ships and this sale is just the

beginning it's a foundation for a deeper

defense partnership between India and

the Philippines to begin with the brahos

deal includes Clauses around training

and logistic support India has trained

military officials from the Philippines

on the brahmos system it has off also

offered spare parts so this PCT creates

long-term interdependencies it also

creates opportunities for both sides to

engage in joint military drills

especially on the high seas since both

militaries operate the brahmos and this

could already be in the

pipeline in 2023 Manila and New Delhi

signed a PCT about and I'm quoting

enhancing Maritime cooperation that was

the deal with today's deliveries they

can Elevate their defense partnership

and for India this also opens new doors

the success of this deal will boost