An Extreme G4 Solar Storm Train, Eight Storms Race to Earth | Space Weather Spotlight 10 May 2024
Summary
TLDRThis week's space weather is marked by high activity with seven Earth-directed solar storms originating from regions 3664 and 3668. These storms are expected to bring vibrant auroras and potential disruptions to radio communications and GPS systems. The storms began with two back-to-back events, followed by a series of increasingly powerful flares, including an X4.5 flare that caused a radio blackout. The solar activity is monitored closely, with the potential for further storms from other regions that are rotating into view. Amateur radio operators, emergency responders, and aviators are advised to prepare for the impact on communications. The public is encouraged to reduce power consumption during the evening to assist utility companies during the storms. Aurora photographers can anticipate a spectacular display if the Earth's magnetic field is favorably oriented.
Takeaways
- 🌌 Solar storms are expected to cause beautiful auroras visible even at mid-latitudes if the Earth's magnetic field is favorably oriented.
- ⚠️ There is a high activity in space weather due to seven Earth-directed solar storms originating from regions 3664 and 3668 on the Sun.
- 📡 Amateur radio operators and emergency responders should be prepared for disruptions in radio communications due to the solar storms.
- 🌐 The solar storms may affect GPS and other satellite-based systems, particularly in the VHF range and higher frequencies.
- 🌟 The solar flare activity from region 3664 has been particularly intense, causing significant radio blackouts and X-class flares.
- 📈 The solar flux is expected to remain high due to continued solar activity, which may impact aviation and other technologies reliant on clear radio frequencies.
- 🌍 Power grid resilience may be challenged during the solar storms, and voluntary reduction in power consumption at night could help utility companies manage the load.
- 📅 The solar storms are anticipated to start impacting Earth around the 11th and could extend into the early part of the following week.
- 🌕 The new moon phase provides a good opportunity for sky watchers to observe celestial events, including potential auroras.
- ✈️ Aviation professionals should be aware of potential radiation storm levels and adjust flight plans accordingly to minimize risk.
- 🔍 Space weather prediction models indicate that the storms will likely merge in their path towards Earth, although they will remain separate events causing compressed activity.
Q & A
How many solar storms are expected to hit Earth according to the script?
-Seven solar storms are expected to hit Earth.
What kind of phenomena can these solar storms potentially cause on Earth?
-These solar storms can potentially cause auroras and disruptions to radio communications, GPS signals, and power grids.
What is the significance of the solar region 3664 mentioned in the script?
-Solar region 3664 has been particularly active, producing a series of flares and solar storms that are directed towards Earth.
What is the expected timeframe for the solar storms to impact Earth?
-The solar storms are expected to start impacting Earth late on the 10th or early on the 11th, with potential effects lasting through the 12th or 13th.
What advice is given to amateur radio operators during this period of high solar activity?
-Amateur radio operators are advised to expect severe noise on the radio bands and to be prepared for potential disruptions to their communications.
How can the general public help mitigate the effects of solar storms on power grids?
-The general public can help by voluntarily reducing power consumption, especially during the evening hours when the power grids are more likely to be affected by the solar storms.
What is the potential impact of solar storms on aviation, particularly for those flying over the poles?
-Solar storms can cause radio blackouts and affect backup radio communications, as well as potentially disrupt GPS and other navigation systems, posing challenges for aviation, especially over the poles.
What is the expected level of solar storm conditions according to the NOAA model?
-The NOAA model predicts severe storm conditions, with a high chance of reaching G4 levels.
What is the role of the sunspot region 3668 in the script?
-Sunspot region 3668 is mentioned as merging with region 3664, contributing to the increased solar activity and the firing off of solar storms.
How does the new moon phase impact sky watchers and aurora photographers?
-The new moon phase provides an opportunity for sky watchers and aurora photographers to capture dim objects in the sky and auroras without the moonlight washing out the views.
What is the potential effect of solar storms on GPS and other satellite-based systems?
-Solar storms can cause interference with GPS and other satellite-based systems, affecting their accuracy and potentially disrupting services that rely on these systems.
Outlines
🌌 Solar Storms and Aurora Activity
The video discusses a series of seven solar storms heading towards Earth, which are expected to cause significant auroral displays. It highlights the high activity mode of space weather, particularly focusing on sunspot region 3663, which had been active earlier in the week. Regions 3664 and 3668 are also emphasized, which began to merge and produce solar storms after crossing the central meridian of the Sun. The video provides a detailed account of each storm's trajectory and potential impact on Earth, including the possibility of auroral displays and effects on radio communications.
🌠 Intensity and Impact of Solar Storms
This paragraph delves into the specifics of the solar storms, including the magnetic complexity of the regions involved and the types of flares observed. It discusses the continuous activity from region 3664, which is expected to persist even as it moves to the far side of the Sun. The video also addresses the impact on radio frequencies, with a significant rise in X-ray flux causing radio blackouts at an R1 level. The potential effects on aviation and GPS systems are also mentioned, with advice for amateur radio operators and emergency responders to remain vigilant.
🌨 Solar Storm Predictions and Aurora Forecast
The video presents a solar storm prediction model, illustrating the expected paths and impacts of the four most significant storms, referred to as 'Halos.' It clarifies that while the model shows these storms merging, in reality, they will compress each other without merging into a single event. The anticipated arrival times of the storms are discussed, with the most significant impacts expected on the 11th and 12th. The video also provides advice for aurora photographers and the general public on how to prepare for the increased solar activity.
📡 Radio Blackout and Power Grid Resilience
This section focuses on the potential for radio blackouts due to the solar flares and storms, with a high probability of M-class and X-class flares causing disruptions. The video provides a timeline for when the noise on radio bands is expected to decrease as the active region rotates away from Earth view. It encourages voluntary power reduction during the evening to assist utility companies in managing the increased load from the solar storms. The video also addresses the outlook for solar flares and the potential for further radio blackouts in the coming week.
✈️ Aviation and GPS Considerations
The video concludes with a discussion on the implications of the solar storms for aviation and GPS users. It advises that GPS reception may be adversely affected during the storms, particularly near auroral activity. It also mentions the need for frequent calibration of magnetometers for accurate readings. The video emphasizes the importance of being prepared and vigilant, especially for those involved in search and rescue operations or working in disaster areas.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Solar Storm
💡X-class Flare
💡Aurora
💡Sunspot Region
💡M-Class Flare
💡Radio Blackout
💡Space Weather
💡Heliophysics
💡Gigahertz (GHz)
💡Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
💡Magnetometer
Highlights
Solar storms from region 3664 and 3668 have been highly active, producing multiple X-class flares and solar storms.
A train of seven solar storms is en route to Earth, promising increased auroral activity.
The first solar storm from the active region was partly directed towards Earth, with subsequent storms being more directly aimed.
The solar activity includes back-to-back solar storms and a significant flare that caused a radio blackout.
The solar storms are expected to impact Earth around the 10th or 11th, with potential for extended storming at a G4 level.
Amateur radio operators and emergency responders are advised to prepare for potential disruptions due to solar storms.
The solar storms may affect GPS and other navigation systems, particularly in the VHF range.
Aurora photographers can expect to capture increased auroral activity, especially if the magnetic field is favorably oriented.
The solar storm prediction model by NOAA suggests that the storms will merge, although in reality, they will be sequential.
The impact of the solar storms is expected to last through the 12th or 13th before conditions calm down.
The new moon phase provides an optimal time for sky watchers to observe dim astronomical objects and potential auroras.
Voluntary power reduction during evening hours can help utility companies manage the increased load during the solar storms.
The solar flux is expected to remain high due to the continued activity of region 3664, despite its rotation to the sun's west limb.
There is a high probability of M-class and X-class flares causing radio blackouts at R1 to R3 levels over the next three days.
Aviators and high-risk passengers should consider the elevated radiation storm levels in their flight plans, with potential for S1 to S2 levels.
The space weather this week is extremely active with potential for significant impacts on communication and navigation systems.
The active regions 3645, 3654, and 3644/48 are expected to rotate back into Earth view, possibly bringing more solar flares and storms.
Transcripts
we have a solar storm train of seven
solar storms on their way to Earth with
a promise of lots of Aurora and a
reminder of the importance of space
weather those stories and more in this
week's
[Music]
Spotlight space weather this week
remains in high activity mode as we take
a look at our Earth facing disc we had
been paying attention to region
3663 this had been the big xflare player
earlier in the week had been firing lots
of different x-class flares and other
big flares but it had not been giving us
any Earth directed solar storms however
as we watched region 3664 and
3668 once they cross Center disc right
around where that hot longitude was as
expected they started to grow in fact
region 3664 began to merge with region
3668 late on the 7th and into the eth
and that is when all the fireworks
really began to start in fact right
about the eth you see the this region
right in here began to fire off a solar
storm and then it fired off another
solar storm back to back right here
those were two storms and then it
launched one more storm right here and
if we take a look in chronographs you
can actually see the first solar storm
right here this is the one that's going
mainly Southwest of Earth but that's
still partly Earth directed so that's
storm one then shortly after after that
right on its tail you see a big halo
this is a totally Earth directed solar
storm that was the first big x-class
Flare from region 3664 and then shortly
thereafter we had yet another Halo bam
right there that is now storm number
three that's headed toward Earth and yet
this region was not done as it continued
to move we actually got more activity
from it but not before it fires off a
filament right here
off to the West slightly Northwest of
Earth but at this nearly the same time
we got yet another big Flare from this
region so we have yet another one two
from solar storms and then we had a
short one that came after that as well
but take a look in coronagraphs here is
the the partial Halo from this filament
eruption that's going mainly to the east
of Earth so what is that storm number
four now and then shortly thereafter
look there's another big halo so that is
now storm number five but we're still
not done in fact as we continue this
ride you'll actually see the part of
that filament or part of that eruption
pop off right there now as we move into
the ninth we're going to have yet two
more big solar storms we have a big
x-class flare coming up right about here
bam right there that's a big x-class
flare and with that we have yet another
big halo this is Storm number six so we
care you keep them counting we've got a
ton of solar storms all being rapid
fired at Earth and then shortly
thereafter as this region rotates a
little bit further to the West limb you
see yet ain't bam right there another
solar storm launch and this one has yet
another Halo you can see it it looks
like we're finally getting to a point
where this region is going to be
rotating uh basically out of the earth
Strike Zone here soon so hopefully that
that's just seven solar storms we're not
going to get any more Earth ired solar
storms from this region can't promise
that but there'll be more flanking blows
rather than big big uh direct hits now
thank goodness for that but despite that
we still have other regions on the East
limb if you recall we have some
farsighted regions that are going to be
uh rotating into Earth view in fact as
we take a look at our jsck HMI Helio
seismology farsighted viewer do you guys
remember regions
3645 3654 and region 3644 and 48 these
are regions that were giving us big
solar flares about two weeks ago and
they have all survived their far sided
passage you can see in the gold here
this is The Far Side of the Sun and
they're about to rotate back into Earth
view the dark regions show where those
Sun those Sunspot clusters are so get
ready because we're going to be having
possibly more activity uh returning into
Earth view giving us more big solar
flares and possibly the chance for big
solar storms again so even with region
3664 going off of the east or the West
limb we're still going to be uh having
quite a bit of activity so War
photographers get ready and amateur
radio operators and emergency responders
expect that you're going to still have
issues on Earth's day side with those
big radio bands because those big solar
flares just aren't going away
now taking a closer look at regions 3664
and region 3668 we haven't seen Sunspot
clusters like this in quite some time
now as we watch these regions rotate
across the disc you can see a blowup of
them here in the inset and as they pass
through this hot longitude that was
right about Center dis as expected
things started to change in fact you can
watch this new growth emerging right
here between region 3664 and 3668 and by
about the eth this region had really
kind of fused together in this really
magnetically complex region and this is
right about when region 3664 began to
take over you can see lots of flare
activity this is when we started getting
the big solar storm launches as well as
the big solar flares including including
big radio bursts up into the gigahertz
range and this is likely going to
continue because this region is showing
no signs of slowing down in fact even as
we get to late on the 9th you can see
still see a ton of complexity in this
region it is still firing off solar
flares as well as solar storms so this
region is likely going to survive its
Far Side passage it's also likely going
to be shooting off solar flares and
solar storms on the sun's far side and
in about two weeks we could very e well
easily see it again and it may still be
a big solar storm and solar flare
producer so we're going to be keeping
our eyes on it and amateur radio
operators emergency responders and even
you aviators this region is definitely
one that you got to keep your eyes
on and if the look of that active region
cluster did not get your attention this
surely will this is our M flare day side
radio blackout threat meter and look at
this thing as we move in you see all
these different flares Big M flares big
x-class flares this is from region
3663 but as we move into the eighth this
is right when region 3664 began to take
over and look at the noise floor for the
X-ray flux it has climbed so high that
the noise floor is sitting at the MF
flare level this is at an R1 radio
blackout level this is with out solar
flares so you amateur radio operators on
Earth's day side if you're wondering why
you can't get anything on the day side
radio bands this is why our noise level
is sitting at an R1 level radio blackout
we have popped either at or very near
the R3 level radio blackout Threshold at
least seven times in the last 48 hours
topping it off especially with an uh
x4.5 flare and this is the flare that
actually caused a radio blackout that
act and with a a huge radio burst in
that had a ton of energy in the VHF
range so you aviators this could
definitely affect your backup radio
communications especially if you're
flying over the poles and it also had
energy up in the 800 to uh 1 gigahertz
range and that becomes a really close to
those adsb transponders as well as to
GPS and gnss receivers so amateur radio
operators as well as aviators and anyone
using GPS if you're on Earth's day side
you definitely could be affected by this
so deal with you're going to have to
deal with it over the next 36 to to 48
hours before this region begins to
rotate to the sun's far side and
hopefully these types of radio bursts
will begin to go
away and now returning to those Earth
directed solar storms in order to get
better details on which storms are going
to be direct hits and which ones are
flanking blows we take advantage of the
full view of the Soho Lasco coronograph
as it's viewed from Earth and you can
see that first solar storm this is the
one that was launched mainly Southwest
of Earth but on its heels will be a full
Halo that goes all the way around the
Sun that will be solar storm to you'll
see it boom right there this is the full
Halo that is Storm number two this storm
was the one that was launched with the
very first x-class Flare from region
3664 and kind of really set the gears in
motion shortly after that we get yet
another Halo you can see that right
there that is solar storm number three
so that's the second Halo that's going
to be a direct hit at Earth then shortly
thereafter we get that filament launch
this is Storm number four it's mainly
going Northeast of Earth but right after
that you'll see yet another Halo this is
Storm number five and that means it's
the third Halo the third solar storm
that's going to be a Direct Hit or looks
like it's going to be a direct hit at
Earth and it's going to be very
impactful then it's followed by that
solar storm launched ing the x4.5 flare
this was probably the strongest of the
bunch and this one looks also like it's
going to be a direct hit so this is now
storm number four that is a direct hit
at Earth but a total of six storms thus
far and then we finally get the Caboose
boom right there this is Storm number
seven you can see it's no longer kind of
a it's an a what we call an asymmetric
Halo it looks like it's a bit on the
weak side so luckily it seems like this
one will be a bit of a weaker punch and
it also shows that region 3664 is now
rotating out of the Earth's strike zone
so hopefully this will be the last of
the storms will'll have to deal with
before this region rotates to the sun's
Far Side now as we take a look at our uh
solar storm prediction model enl this is
Noah's version of the model the top
panels density the bottom panels
velocity and you're looking down at the
Sun from the North Pole with Earth being
off to the right and you're going to see
four solar storms that are launched in
this version of of this run this is
these four storms are the four Halos the
four direct what we consider direct hits
uh back to back to back to back and
hopefully you can see them as I set this
in motion now as you watch them coming
out I'll stop them right here they're
already beginning to merge in this model
and this is where we have to be very
careful because this model doesn't take
into account how the magnetic field of
of these solar storms really interact
with each other these storms are not
merging into one big storm even though
the model shows it will we couldn't run
the model faster than real time if we
had to really include all of the real
life details so we we do the best we can
as you see these storms merging into a
single storm you need to take this with
a grain of salt because these storms
really are just going to be coming back
to back to back they're going to
compress each other but they're not
going to merge into a single storm so as
we take a look at the impact time Noah
is expecting the the storms to arrive
either late on the 10th or early into
the 11th and you see most of the
storming will be done on the 11th but
likely because these storms don't really
merge they're going to be spread out and
we're probably going to get some
storming into the 12th possibly even
into the 13th before things calm down
now as we switch to our NASA version of
the model again you're looking down the
Sun from the North Pole with Earth being
off to the right you're seeing those
same four big halo storms being uh being
modeled here and as they come out once
again you see them beginning to merge
this is not what the storms will
actually do they're just going to
compress each other quite a bit but they
are going to be individual storms just
all compressed together NASA shows the
initial impact will be a little bit
earlier than what Noah is predicting
that is on the evening of the 10th
likely things again are going to start
really ramping up on the 11th however
and the storming will continue easily
into the 12th and into the 13th before
things calm down so Aurora photographers
it doesn't matter where you are if the
magnetic field is oriented the right way
you're going to get to see some decent
Aurora deep into mid latitude so
definitely keep your batteries
charged switching to our moon we are now
coming out of a new moon on our way to
our first quarter and by the 15th the
moon will be about 50% illuminated so
unite Sky Watchers if if you want to
catch those dim objects in the sky and I
don't know maybe some Aurora well now is
your perfect
chance now switching to our solar storm
conditions and Aurora possibilities over
the coming week we are anticipating that
train of solar storms that's on its way
to Earth it should hit basically
starting around the 11th so it should be
no surprise that we're going to be
storming in through the weekend and
possibly into the early part of next
week before things calm down at high
latitudes Noah is expecting severe storm
conditions in fact they have about a 90%
chance of severe storm conditions at a
G4 level and this is going to continue
in through the 12th likely things will
begin to calm down a little bit we could
see G3 levels on the 12th and then
things will continue to calm down as we
move into early next week Aurora
photographers if you're at high
latitudes of course you could get Aurora
if that magnetic field is oriented the
right way in fact you might even have to
look Southward for the Aurora but for
those of you who are concerned about the
resilience of our power grids and you
want to help you can voluntarily turn
down your power consumption especially
once the sun goes down because that's
when those big currents uh end up
becoming a problem for us is at
nighttime so it gives the power uh
utility companies a little bit more
leeway to handle some of those currents
from that big solar storm that's hitting
and don't worry at all about Aurora if
you're seeing them overhead that is just
our Earth kind of blowing off steam and
dissipating the energy from these solar
storms it's completely normal now as we
switch to Mid latitude well we are still
looking at solar storm conditions in
fact we are still expecting severe storm
conditions but this time we're going to
expect a G4 level but only about a 50%
chance of hitting a G4 level then we're
going to bump down to likely major storm
conditions but we still have about a 25%
chance of a severe storm on the 12th and
again things will calm down shortly
after that so Aurora photographers if
you're at Mid latitudes yes absolutely
you could get some Aurora likely not as
many issues when it comes to power
consumption but still the same thing
goes for those of you at Mid latitudes
if you'd like to do you know like to
help during uh periods like this
especially if the storming continues
over a long period of time like 24 to 48
hours at these high levels then yes if
you would like to voluntarily reduce
your power consumption at night I'm sure
the power companies will thank
you and now switching to our solar flare
and day side radio blackout Outlook over
the coming week we are sitting around
the mid2 200s for solar flux and this is
because mainly because of region
3664 that is going to be rotating to the
sun's West limb in about 3 days but
likely the solar flux is going to stay
above 200 because we're going to have
new regions rotating into Earth view
nonetheless over the next next three
three days we're expecting to have
severe noise on the radio bands this is
uh because we have about a 95% chance of
mclass flares this is at the R1 to R2
level radio blackout and we have even up
to about a 50% chance of x-class flares