Here’s How Bad This Hurricane Season Will Actually Be…

Ryan Hall, Y'all
1 May 202408:44

Summary

TLDRMeteorologists are predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, with forecasts from Colorado State University indicating a record high number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Warmer than usual Atlantic waters, influenced by a shift from El Nino to La Nina conditions, are expected to fuel storm development and intensification. The potential for more direct impacts on the U.S. is heightened due to a projected stronger high-pressure system near Bermuda. Despite the increased activity, viewers are encouraged to stay prepared rather than scared, with advice to monitor weather updates and have a hurricane plan in place.

Takeaways

  • 🌪️ Forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predict an extremely active year, potentially surpassing previous records.
  • 🎓 Colorado State University's forecast is particularly bold, predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, which is considered conservative given current model guidance.
  • 📈 The last hurricane season had 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, which was above average, but with only 4 direct impacts on the U.S.
  • 🔥 A stronger high-pressure system near Bermuda and the Azores is expected, which could deflect more storms towards the Caribbean and the U.S.
  • 🌊 Atlantic waters, particularly in the Main Development Region (MDR), are already as warm as they would be in late June or early July, indicating a high potential for storm formation.
  • 📉 The North Atlantic Ocean has experienced over 400 consecutive days of unprecedentedly warm temperatures, which could fuel more frequent and intense storms.
  • ⚡ The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is turning negative, transitioning from El Nino to La Nina, which historically has been associated with more intense hurricane seasons.
  • 🔁 La Nina conditions typically decrease wind shear in the Caribbean, allowing storms to intensify and potentially make landfall in the U.S.
  • ⚓ The speaker's personal forecast aligns with Colorado State University's, predicting 25 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and at least 6 major hurricanes for the 2024 season.
  • ⚠️ Despite the potential for more direct impacts on the U.S., the chances of a large hurricane hitting a specific house remain very low, emphasizing the importance of preparedness over panic.
  • 📚 The speaker encourages viewers to review their hurricane plans, evacuation routes, and to stay informed as the hurricane season progresses for timely preparation.

Q & A

  • Why are meteorologists predicting an extremely active hurricane season for 2024?

    -Meteorologists are predicting an extremely active hurricane season due to a combination of factors including unusually warm Atlantic waters, a developing high-pressure system near Bermuda and the Azores that could deflect more storms towards the U.S., and the transition from El Nino to La Nina which historically has been associated with more intense hurricane seasons.

  • What is the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted by Colorado State University in April?

    -The highest number of hurricanes ever predicted by Colorado State University in April is 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

  • How does the Atlantic water temperature compare to previous years in terms of hurricane season activity?

    -The Atlantic water temperatures recorded in March for the 2024 season are even warmer than those recorded in the March ahead of the very active hurricane seasons like 2005 and 2020, suggesting a potentially more active season.

  • What is the typical duration of the Atlantic hurricane season?

    -The typical duration of the Atlantic hurricane season is from around June 1st to November 30th.

  • What is the significance of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for hurricane season forecasts?

    -The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significant for hurricane season forecasts because it indicates whether the pattern is shifting from El Nino (which usually suppresses hurricane activity) to La Nina (which can lead to more active hurricane seasons).

  • What is the phenomenon known as 'rapid intensification' and why is it a concern for the 2024 hurricane season?

    -Rapid intensification is a phenomenon where tropical storms quickly strengthen into more powerful hurricanes. It is a concern for the 2024 hurricane season because warm waters promote frequent storm development and increase the potential for rapid intensification, which can lead to more powerful and destructive hurricanes.

  • What is the role of the high-pressure system developing near Bermuda in the forecast for the 2024 hurricane season?

    -The high-pressure system developing near Bermuda is expected to deflect more storms westward into the Caribbean and the United States, potentially leading to more direct impacts on the U.S. than in previous years.

  • What was the most impactful hurricane of the previous season mentioned in the script?

    -Hurricane Idalia was the most impactful storm of the previous season, slamming into Florida as a powerful category three hurricane in late August.

  • What is the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic and why is it significant?

    -The main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic stretches from the Lesser Antilles to Africa and is significant because it is where most tropical storms and hurricanes form. The waters in this region are already as warm as they should be in late June or early July, indicating a potentially active hurricane season.

  • What is the sponsor mentioned in the video and what product are they promoting?

    -The sponsor mentioned in the video is Henson Shaving, and they are promoting the AL-13, a lifetime shaving tool made to aerospace standards that is completely plastic-free, including the packaging.

  • What is the preliminary forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season according to the speaker?

    -The speaker's preliminary forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is for an aggressive year with at least 25 named storms, 13 expected hurricanes, and at least six major hurricanes, which is double the average.

  • What advice does the speaker give to those living in areas potentially affected by hurricanes?

    -The speaker advises not to be scared but to be prepared. This includes reviewing one's hurricane plan, knowing evacuation routes, packing a go bag, and staying informed by following weather updates and live streams during the hurricane season.

Outlines

00:00

🌪️ Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2024

Meteorologists are predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, with forecasts surpassing previous records. Colorado State University has issued an unprecedented forecast, predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. This is a conservative estimate based on current model guidance. Last season saw 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with Hurricane Idalia being the most significant impact on the U.S. This year, however, there could be more direct impacts due to a stronger high-pressure system expected near Bermuda and the Azores, which would deflect storms westward. The Atlantic's main development region (MDR) is already experiencing unusually warm waters, which is conducive to storm development and intensification. This is linked to a streak of over 400 days of unprecedentedly warm temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean, which could lead to a season as active as the record-breaking years of 2005 and 2020.

05:01

🌊 El Nino to La Nina Transition and Its Impact

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a critical factor in hurricane forecasting. This year, a transition from El Nino to La Nina is expected, which historically indicates a more active hurricane season. El Nino typically results in increased thunderstorm activity and wind shear in the Caribbean, which can deter hurricane formation. Conversely, La Nina conditions decrease these effects, allowing storms to form and potentially impact the U.S. The faster this transition occurs, the more active the hurricane season is likely to be. Past major hurricane years, such as 2005 and 2020, were also La Nina years. The presenter agrees with Colorado State University's forecast, predicting 25 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and at least six major hurricanes for the 2024 season. While it is difficult to predict direct U.S. impacts, the potential for more is high due to the expected high-pressure system and warm Caribbean waters. The presenter encourages viewers to prepare for the season by reviewing hurricane plans and staying informed through weather updates and live streams on the channel.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Meteorologists

Meteorologists are scientists who study the atmosphere and predict weather patterns. In the video, they are developing forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which is crucial for understanding the potential impact of tropical storms and hurricanes on the U.S. and the Caribbean.

💡Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is the period during which tropical storms form in the Atlantic Ocean. It typically runs from June 1st to November 30th. The video discusses the forecast for an extremely active hurricane season in 2024, with implications for the U.S. and the Caribbean.

💡Colorado State University

Colorado State University is mentioned in the video as one of the first institutions to release a bold forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. Their forecast includes a high number of predicted hurricanes, indicating a potentially severe season.

💡Hurricane Forecast

A hurricane forecast is a prediction of the number and intensity of hurricanes that may occur in a given season. The video highlights a forecast from Colorado State University that predicts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, which is unusually high.

💡High-Pressure System

A high-pressure system is a region in the atmosphere where the air pressure is higher than in surrounding areas. In the context of the video, a stronger high-pressure system near Bermuda and the Azores is expected to deflect more storms towards the Caribbean and the U.S., increasing the likelihood of direct impacts.

💡Main Development Region (MDR)

The Main Development Region (MDR) is an area in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical storms and hurricanes typically form. The video mentions that the MDR's waters are already at temperatures typical for late June or early July, indicating an early and potentially intense hurricane season.

💡El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that involves fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The video discusses how a shift from El Nino to La Nina conditions can influence the intensity of the hurricane season, with La Nina often associated with more active hurricane seasons.

💡Rapid Intensification

Rapid intensification refers to a phenomenon where a tropical storm quickly strengthens into a hurricane. The video suggests that this could be a significant factor in the 2024 hurricane season, with warmer waters increasing the potential for rapid intensification of storms.

💡Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina is a historic and devastating hurricane that struck in 2005. The video uses it as a reference point for the potential severity of the 2024 hurricane season, noting that the current water temperatures are even warmer than those recorded before Katrina, which was a record-breaking year for hurricanes.

💡Henson Shaving

Henson Shaving is mentioned in the video as a sponsor. While not directly related to the main theme of the video, it serves as an example of how the video creator supports the production of content, such as hurricane forecasts and coverage, through sponsorships.

💡Storm Chasers

Storm chasers are individuals who pursue severe weather events, particularly storms and hurricanes, to study or document them. The video mentions that the creator will be live with storm chasers during the hurricane season, providing real-time coverage and updates on storm developments.

Highlights

Meteorologists are forecasting an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, potentially surpassing previous predictions.

Colorado State University's forecast predicts the highest number of hurricanes ever in April by the organization.

The forecast includes 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, with the possibility of these numbers being conservative.

Last season was above average with 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, but only four direct US impacts.

A stronger high-pressure system expected near Bermuda and the Azores could deflect more storms towards the Caribbean and the US.

The Atlantic's main development region is already as warm as it should be in late June or early July due to an unprecedented warm streak.

Atlantic water temperatures recorded in March are warmer than those in the record-breaking hurricane seasons of 2005 and 2020.

Warm water promotes frequent storm development and increases the potential for rapid intensification of systems.

El Nino Southern Oscillation is going negative, transitioning from El Nino to La Nina, which could lead to a more intense hurricane season.

The transition from El Nino to La Nina is expected to be faster, potentially increasing the activity of the hurricane season.

The presenter's preliminary forecast aligns with Colorado State University, predicting an aggressive year with 25 named storms.

The forecast anticipates 13 hurricanes, with at least six expected to be major hurricanes, double the average.

More storms are expected to have the opportunity to impact the US this year due to the expected Bermuda High and warm Caribbean waters.

The presenter emphasizes the importance of being prepared rather than scared, as hurricanes can be seen from a long distance.

The presenter will provide live coverage and updates throughout the hurricane season to ensure viewers have a complete understanding of the situation.

The video includes a sponsorship message for Henson Shaving, highlighting the product's durability and eco-friendliness.

The presenter will be using scientific probes, surge detectors, and storm chasers to provide detailed and accurate hurricane information.

Transcripts

00:00

Right now, meteorologists around the country are  developing their forecasts for the upcoming 2024  

00:06

Atlantic hurricane season. And so far, almost all  of these forecasts are calling for an extremely  

00:12

active year, in some cases way beyond anything  that's been predicted before. In this video, I'm  

00:17

going to explain to you why that is, and I'm also  going to tell you what I think about the pattern  

00:21

developing that will dictate our tropical season. Meteorologists at Colorado State University were  

00:26

some of the first ones to come out with a bold  and unprecedented forecast this year. In fact,  

00:32

the hurricane forecast from CSU includes the  highest number of hurricanes ever predicted  

00:37

in April by the organization since they began. The  outlook is aggressive, touting a total of 23 named  

00:43

storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.  And the lead meteorologist in charge of this  

00:49

forecast even said that those numbers are actually  pretty conservative if you look at the current  

00:53

model guidance. To put that into perspective,  last hurricane season we had 20 named storms,  

00:58

seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which  technically counts as an above average season.  

01:03

But there were only four direct US impacts.  Hurricane Idalia was the storm of the year,  

01:07

which slammed into Florida as a powerful  category three hurricane in late August. And  

01:12

there were definitely some big problems that  came along with that. But for the most part,  

01:16

if you lived along the coast, even though  last year was above average, you probably  

01:19

didn't notice. But this year, not only could  there be more general tropical activity,  

01:24

but we could also be looking at more direct  impacts here in the U.S. In stark contrast  

01:30

from last season, a stronger high-pressure system  is expected to develop near Bermuda and the  

01:35

Azores, which should deflect more storms westward  into the Caribbean and the United States. If this  

01:41

high-pressure system sets up the way that we think  it will, it could be a worst-case scenario for the  

01:45

U.S., as it's almost certain at this point that  there's going to be a of storms forming as soon  

01:50

as hurricane season starts. And we usually say  that hurricane season has started whenever the  

01:55

waters in the Atlantic get to around 80 degrees  Fahrenheit and that's usually happening around  

02:00

June 1st and it lasts until around November 30th.  But here's the kicker, water in the Atlantic's  

02:05

main development region, the MDR, which stretches  from the lesser Antilles all the way over to  

02:09

Africa, are already as warm as they should be  in late June or early July. This This is due to  

02:15

the fact that the North Atlantic Ocean is on a  streak of more than 400 days straight of being  

02:21

unprecedentedly warm. And once again, to put that  into perspective, the Atlantic water temperatures  

02:26

recorded this March are even warmer than they were  in the March ahead of our blockbuster seasons like  

02:32

2005 and 2020. Of course, if you remember 2005, that year was nuts, featuring historic  

02:37

hurricanes like Hurricane Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. And 2020 currently  

02:42

stands as the most active year ever as far  as tropical systems go in the Atlantic. 

02:47

So the fact that our water temperatures currently  show analog connections to those record-breaking  

02:52

years is concerning. Not only will all of this  warm water promote frequent storm development,  

02:57

but it's also going to increase the potential  for systems to undergo rapid intensification,  

03:02

a phenomenon that has occurred a lot in  recent years with historic hurricanes. 

03:06

And if that wasn't enough by itself, another thing  we have to consider when making our hurricane  

03:10

forecast this year is the fact that our El Nino  Southern Oscillation is going negative, which  

03:15

basically means that we're going from El Nino  to La Nina as we go into hurricane season. This  

03:21

matters because it's one of the biggest indicators  of how strong or weak or how intense a hurricane  

03:26

season is gonna be. But before we dig too deep  into that, and I promise we're going to, since  

03:31

this year looks like it's gonna be very active,  I'm probably gonna be live a lot on this channel  

03:36

with hurricane coverage. So in order to ensure  that we can pay for all those storm chasers and  

03:41

all the other bills that go along with an endeavor  like that, let's take a moment to shout out our  

03:45

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03:51

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03:58

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04:50

journey that you will not soon regret, I promise.  Now let's get back into the video. You see the El  

04:55

Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO is basically  just the observation of temperature anomalies  

05:01

in the Pacific. This winter we were in an El  Nino pattern. This occurs whenever waters in the  

05:05

equatorial Pacific region are warmer than usual.  And when we first started noticing this last year,  

05:10

we were actually hoping that it was going to last  all the way into this hurricane season because  

05:14

El Nino in the Pacific usually leads to greater  thunderstorm frequency around the equator and that  

05:20

sends a lot of trade winds over Central America  and ultimately it creates a lot of wind shear in  

05:25

the Caribbean. When we have El Nino in place  during hurricane season, it sometimes creates  

05:30

a wall that hurricanes either avoid or they get  torn apart by right before entering the area where  

05:37

we would be concerned about them in the U.S. But  when those waters start to cool off and they get  

05:41

cooler than average, we call that La Nina. This  decreases the thunderstorm activity down there  

05:47

and it decreases the wind shear in the Caribbean.  And this kind of just opens the gates to allow  

05:52

storms to enter the U.S. And that's exactly  what we expect to happen this year. The faster  

05:57

that transition from El Nino to La Nina occurs,  the more active this hurricane season is going  

06:02

to be. And once again, it's really important to  note that these big hurricane years of the past,  

06:06

like 2005 and 2020, were also La Nina years. So  the similarities just keep stacking up. Of course,  

06:14

that does not mean that this year is going to  be an exact repeat of those years. It doesn't  

06:18

even really mean that it's going to be close. But  I think it's important to point out that based on  

06:22

the current data, all the ingredients are in place  to create a situation where something like that is  

06:27

at least possible this season. But with all that  being said, here's what you actually came here  

06:31

for. My official 2024 Atlantic hurricane season  preliminary forecast based off of everything  

06:37

we've learned in this video along with a lot of  analysis and studying of several forecast models  

06:42

here's what I've come up with. I actually agree  with the Colorado State University meteorologists  

06:47

and I think we're going to have an aggressive year  in terms of overall storm formation. In fact, I'm  

06:52

going to lean a little bit more into the guidance  and go ahead and put a higher number down. I think  

06:56

we're going to see 25 named storms this year at  least because conditions are going be so favorable  

07:02

for these storms to intensify into hurricanes. I  think we're going to see higher hurricanes than  

07:06

usual. In fact, I'm going to go with 13 expected.  And as we mentioned before, rapid intensification  

07:12

is going to be something that we really have to  watch out for this year. And for that reason,  

07:15

I'm going to say that at least six major  hurricanes are going to be occurring this year,  

07:20

which is double the average. Now I don't have  any sort of prediction as to how many of these  

07:25

are going to directly affect the U.S. There's  really no way of knowing that right now. But  

07:28

I do think that a lot more of them are going to  have the real opportunity to make it into the U.S.  

07:33

this year than they did last year. Thanks to that  Bermuda High that's likely going to form and the  

07:38

warm waters in the Caribbean, there could be a lot  more direct U.S. impacts than any of us would like  

07:43

to see this year. But as always, don't be scared,  be prepared. Hurricanes are big, mean, and scary,  

07:49

but this just means that we can actually see  them from a long ways away. So as long as you  

07:53

pay attention to the weather, you're going to have  plenty of time to prepare in the event of a big  

07:57

hurricane coming for your area. Go ahead and go  over your hurricane plan, the evacuation routes,  

08:02

pack a go bag and all that good stuff and  just stay tuned here. Make sure you're paying  

08:06

attention as we get deeper into hurricane  season. Us weather people are often wrong,  

08:10

but even if we're not, the odds of a big hurricane  coming right for your house are extremely low,  

08:16

even in a situation where we have an above  average season. Of course, if things get gnarly,  

08:21

I'm going to be live right here on the channel  with all of our storm chasers on the ground, 

08:25

Meteorologist Andy Hill, our scientific  probes out there, the surge detectors,  

08:30

and everything else like that to make sure you  have a complete understanding of what's going on  

08:34

while it's happening. So make sure you subscribe  to this channel and turn notifications on so  

08:38

you never miss a live stream. And as always,  I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye. Whoop!

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Hurricane ForecastAtlantic SeasonClimate ChangeTropical StormsUS ImpactBermuda HighCaribbean WeatherEl NinoLa NinaRapid IntensificationDisaster Preparedness
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