Here’s How Bad This Hurricane Season Will Actually Be…

Right now, meteorologists around the country are  developing their forecasts for the upcoming 2024  

Atlantic hurricane season. And so far, almost all  of these forecasts are calling for an extremely  

active year, in some cases way beyond anything  that's been predicted before. In this video, I'm  

going to explain to you why that is, and I'm also  going to tell you what I think about the pattern  

developing that will dictate our tropical season. Meteorologists at Colorado State University were  

some of the first ones to come out with a bold  and unprecedented forecast this year. In fact,  

the hurricane forecast from CSU includes the  highest number of hurricanes ever predicted  

in April by the organization since they began. The  outlook is aggressive, touting a total of 23 named  

storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.  And the lead meteorologist in charge of this  

forecast even said that those numbers are actually  pretty conservative if you look at the current  

model guidance. To put that into perspective,  last hurricane season we had 20 named storms,  

seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which  technically counts as an above average season.  

But there were only four direct US impacts.  Hurricane Idalia was the storm of the year,  

which slammed into Florida as a powerful  category three hurricane in late August. And  

there were definitely some big problems that  came along with that. But for the most part,  

if you lived along the coast, even though  last year was above average, you probably  

didn't notice. But this year, not only could  there be more general tropical activity,  

but we could also be looking at more direct  impacts here in the U.S. In stark contrast  

from last season, a stronger high-pressure system  is expected to develop near Bermuda and the  

Azores, which should deflect more storms westward  into the Caribbean and the United States. If this  

high-pressure system sets up the way that we think  it will, it could be a worst-case scenario for the  

U.S., as it's almost certain at this point that  there's going to be a of storms forming as soon  

as hurricane season starts. And we usually say  that hurricane season has started whenever the  

waters in the Atlantic get to around 80 degrees  Fahrenheit and that's usually happening around  

June 1st and it lasts until around November 30th.  But here's the kicker, water in the Atlantic's  

main development region, the MDR, which stretches  from the lesser Antilles all the way over to  

Africa, are already as warm as they should be  in late June or early July. This This is due to  

the fact that the North Atlantic Ocean is on a  streak of more than 400 days straight of being  

unprecedentedly warm. And once again, to put that  into perspective, the Atlantic water temperatures  

recorded this March are even warmer than they were  in the March ahead of our blockbuster seasons like  

2005 and 2020. Of course, if you remember 2005, that year was nuts, featuring historic  

hurricanes like Hurricane Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. And 2020 currently  

stands as the most active year ever as far  as tropical systems go in the Atlantic. 

So the fact that our water temperatures currently  show analog connections to those record-breaking  

years is concerning. Not only will all of this  warm water promote frequent storm development,  

but it's also going to increase the potential  for systems to undergo rapid intensification,  

a phenomenon that has occurred a lot in  recent years with historic hurricanes. 

And if that wasn't enough by itself, another thing  we have to consider when making our hurricane  

forecast this year is the fact that our El Nino  Southern Oscillation is going negative, which  

basically means that we're going from El Nino  to La Nina as we go into hurricane season. This  

matters because it's one of the biggest indicators  of how strong or weak or how intense a hurricane  

season is gonna be. But before we dig too deep  into that, and I promise we're going to, since  

this year looks like it's gonna be very active,  I'm probably gonna be live a lot on this channel  

with hurricane coverage. So in order to ensure  that we can pay for all those storm chasers and  

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journey that you will not soon regret, I promise.  Now let's get back into the video. You see the El  

Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO is basically  just the observation of temperature anomalies  

in the Pacific. This winter we were in an El  Nino pattern. This occurs whenever waters in the  

equatorial Pacific region are warmer than usual.  And when we first started noticing this last year,  

we were actually hoping that it was going to last  all the way into this hurricane season because  

El Nino in the Pacific usually leads to greater  thunderstorm frequency around the equator and that  

sends a lot of trade winds over Central America  and ultimately it creates a lot of wind shear in  

the Caribbean. When we have El Nino in place  during hurricane season, it sometimes creates  

a wall that hurricanes either avoid or they get  torn apart by right before entering the area where  

we would be concerned about them in the U.S. But  when those waters start to cool off and they get  

cooler than average, we call that La Nina. This  decreases the thunderstorm activity down there  

and it decreases the wind shear in the Caribbean.  And this kind of just opens the gates to allow  

storms to enter the U.S. And that's exactly  what we expect to happen this year. The faster  

that transition from El Nino to La Nina occurs,  the more active this hurricane season is going  

to be. And once again, it's really important to  note that these big hurricane years of the past,  

like 2005 and 2020, were also La Nina years. So  the similarities just keep stacking up. Of course,  

that does not mean that this year is going to  be an exact repeat of those years. It doesn't  

even really mean that it's going to be close. But  I think it's important to point out that based on  

the current data, all the ingredients are in place  to create a situation where something like that is  

at least possible this season. But with all that  being said, here's what you actually came here  

for. My official 2024 Atlantic hurricane season  preliminary forecast based off of everything  

we've learned in this video along with a lot of  analysis and studying of several forecast models  

here's what I've come up with. I actually agree  with the Colorado State University meteorologists  

and I think we're going to have an aggressive year  in terms of overall storm formation. In fact, I'm  

going to lean a little bit more into the guidance  and go ahead and put a higher number down. I think  

we're going to see 25 named storms this year at  least because conditions are going be so favorable  

for these storms to intensify into hurricanes. I  think we're going to see higher hurricanes than  

usual. In fact, I'm going to go with 13 expected.  And as we mentioned before, rapid intensification  

is going to be something that we really have to  watch out for this year. And for that reason,  

I'm going to say that at least six major  hurricanes are going to be occurring this year,  

which is double the average. Now I don't have  any sort of prediction as to how many of these  

are going to directly affect the U.S. There's  really no way of knowing that right now. But  

I do think that a lot more of them are going to  have the real opportunity to make it into the U.S.  

this year than they did last year. Thanks to that  Bermuda High that's likely going to form and the  

warm waters in the Caribbean, there could be a lot  more direct U.S. impacts than any of us would like  

to see this year. But as always, don't be scared,  be prepared. Hurricanes are big, mean, and scary,  

but this just means that we can actually see  them from a long ways away. So as long as you  

pay attention to the weather, you're going to have  plenty of time to prepare in the event of a big  

hurricane coming for your area. Go ahead and go  over your hurricane plan, the evacuation routes,  

pack a go bag and all that good stuff and  just stay tuned here. Make sure you're paying  

attention as we get deeper into hurricane  season. Us weather people are often wrong,  

but even if we're not, the odds of a big hurricane  coming right for your house are extremely low,  

even in a situation where we have an above  average season. Of course, if things get gnarly,  

I'm going to be live right here on the channel  with all of our storm chasers on the ground, 

Meteorologist Andy Hill, our scientific  probes out there, the surge detectors,  

and everything else like that to make sure you  have a complete understanding of what's going on  

while it's happening. So make sure you subscribe  to this channel and turn notifications on so  

you never miss a live stream. And as always,  I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye. Whoop!