Israel vs Iran: A Clash of Military Capabilities | Vantage with Palki Sharma

Firstpost
14 Apr 202454:49

Summary

TLDRThe video script for a special edition of 'Vantage' with Py Sharma covers the escalating tensions and recent military exchanges between Israel and Iran, highlighting an unprecedented direct attack by Iran on Israeli territory. The episode delves into the potential ramifications of this conflict on global politics, regional alliances, and economic stability, examining the responses from global leaders, the strategic military capacities of both nations, and the broader implications for countries like India and the United States. It raises critical questions about the future steps these nations might take and the possible outcomes of this heightened conflict.

Takeaways

  • 🌍 Israel and Iran are historical enemies with a complex, evolving conflict involving proxy wars and direct confrontations.
  • 🚀 Recent tensions escalated as Iran launched a direct attack on Israeli territory with missiles and drones, marking a significant escalation.
  • 🛡️ Israel's advanced defense systems, including the Iron Dome, successfully intercepted the majority of these incoming projectiles.
  • 📞 Global reactions are mixed, with Western nations like the USA and UK condemning Iran's actions and emphasizing support for Israel.
  • 🔍 The conflict has wider regional implications, potentially affecting nations like Lebanon, Syria, and the broader Middle East.
  • ⚖️ Political implications are significant for leaders in both countries, influencing local support and international diplomatic relations.
  • 📉 The conflict could potentially disrupt global oil markets, highlighting the broader economic implications of Middle Eastern tensions.
  • 🌐 International diplomacy, including actions by the UN and G7, plays a crucial role in managing and potentially resolving the crisis.
  • 🔮 The outcome of this conflict could pivot on key decisions by political leaders, particularly Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iran's leadership.
  • 🕊️ Calls for deescalation are widespread, with many nations urging a return to diplomacy to avoid further escalation and war.

Q & A

  • What triggered the recent escalation between Israel and Iran as mentioned in the script?

    -The recent escalation between Israel and Iran was triggered by an Israeli strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of top Iranian commanders. In response, Iran launched a significant missile and drone attack against Israeli territory.

  • How did Iran's response manifest, and what was its impact according to the script?

    -Iran responded by launching around 300 missiles and drones towards Israel. Although this caused minimal physical damage and the Israeli defense systems intercepted most of these, the attack was symbolic and conveyed Iran's capacity and willingness to retaliate against direct assaults.

  • What did the script suggest about the nature of Iran's attack and its strategic goals?

    -The script suggested that Iran's attack was calculated to be 'controlled and non-escalatory.' It aimed to make a strong statement without causing significant damage or escalating the conflict further, which aligns with their strategy of responding without triggering a full-scale war.

  • According to the script, what are the potential consequences of further military actions by Israel?

    -Further military actions by Israel could lead to a cycle of retaliation between the two nations, potentially resulting in a wider regional conflict. Such escalation could disrupt global oil supplies and increase tensions across the Middle East, involving various regional players and impacting global security and economy.

  • What role do external players like the United States and European countries play in this conflict, based on the script?

    -External players such as the United States and European countries are supporting Israel by condemning the attacks and providing strategic military support. However, they are also urging restraint and pushing for diplomatic resolutions to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

  • How is India impacted by and responding to the Israel-Iran conflict as described in the script?

    -India is significantly impacted as it has strong ties with both Israel and Iran. The script mentions India's call for de-escalation and restraint from both sides, reflecting its complex position of balancing strategic and economic interests with both nations without taking sides explicitly.

  • What historical context is provided about the Iran-Israel relationship in the script?

    -The script explains that Iran and Israel were once close allies up until the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, which shifted the regime's stance to view Israel as an adversary. This marked the beginning of deteriorating relations and subsequent decades of proxy conflicts and direct tensions.

  • What does the script say about the international community's reaction to the conflict?

    -The international community, including major powers and regional actors, has expressed concern over the escalation and is calling for restraint and a return to diplomacy. Many nations are worried about the potential destabilizing effects of a prolonged conflict in the region.

  • According to the script, what are some potential military strategies that Israel might employ in response to the Iranian attacks?

    -The script outlines potential strategies including a proportional response targeting Iranian proxies instead of Iran directly, a full-scale retaliation against Iran, or opting for restraint to prevent escalation. Each strategy carries different risks and potential consequences.

  • What does the script reveal about public sentiment in Iran following the attacks?

    -Public sentiment in Iran is described as highly supportive of the attacks, with celebrations and positive reactions to the government's decision to retaliate against Israel. This reflects a strong nationalistic response favoring Iran's assertive military actions.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Middle Eastern Tensions Escalate

The video script begins with a dramatic introduction to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, setting the stage for a detailed discussion on their historical enmity and recent military engagements. The segment highlights a recent attack where Iran fired 300 missiles and drones at Israel, which resulted in minimal damage but served as a significant political statement. The script questions the potential outcomes of this conflict, including possible escalation into larger war, while also touching on regional impacts and the global implications such as oil prices and economic effects.

05:05

🛡️ Analysis of Military Responses and Tactical Defenses

This section delves into the military tactics employed during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, emphasizing the effectiveness of Israel's air defense systems, which intercepted the majority of the attacks with minimal casualties. It discusses the strategic nature of Iran's attack, suggesting it was more about sending a political message than causing actual damage. International reactions are explored, with global leaders calling for restraint and de-escalation, reflecting widespread concern about the potential for this conflict to escalate further.

10:05

🌐 Global Diplomacy and Strategic Calculations

The narrative shifts to the international diplomatic efforts in response to the Iran-Israel conflict, highlighting the roles of Russia, China, and India in advocating for restraint and diplomacy. It details a UN Security Council meeting and the G7's involvement, suggesting these actions aim to prevent further escalation. The script also explores behind-the-scenes communications between Iran and the US, indicating a controlled Iranian response to Israeli provocations and the strategic implications of these communications.

15:07

🔍 Netanyahu's Strategic Dilemma and Political Motivations

This section focuses on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political and military options in response to the Iranian attack. It critically examines his potential motivations, including political survival and the desire to maintain a strong defense posture. The script analyzes three possible Israeli responses: reciprocal military action, targeting Iranian proxies, or a direct strike on Iran, each with different risks and implications for regional stability.

20:10

🏛️ Iran's Leadership and Domestic Response

Exploring the perspective of Iran, this part discusses Ayatollah Khamenei's role in sanctioning the attacks on Israel, framed as a response to Israeli aggression. It presents the domestic reception in Iran as overwhelmingly positive, portraying the attack as a successful retaliation, despite international opinions to the contrary. The script also touches on Iran's internal challenges, such as economic struggles and public unrest, which influence its foreign policy decisions.

25:11

🇺🇸 Biden's Political Challenges and U.S. Diplomacy

The focus here is on U.S. President Joe Biden's response to the situation, caught between supporting Israel and preventing a wider conflict. It discusses the domestic political implications for Biden, including criticism from former President Donald Trump who attributes the conflict to Biden's perceived weakness. The script explores the delicate balance Biden must maintain in supporting Israel while encouraging de-escalation, reflecting broader U.S. strategic interests in the region.

30:11

⚔️ Comparative Military Strengths and Potential Conflict Outcomes

This segment provides a detailed comparison of the military capabilities of Iran and Israel, analyzing their respective strengths and weaknesses. It discusses the possible outcomes of a full-scale conflict, considering factors like manpower, technological advantages, and strategic allies. The script posits that while Iran has numerical superiority, Israel's technological edge and strong international support, particularly from the U.S., make it a formidable opponent.

35:12

🌏 India's Delicate Position and Regional Implications

India's complex position in the Iran-Israel conflict is outlined, highlighting its strong ties to both nations and the challenging diplomatic landscape it navigates. The script examines India's strategic interests, including economic relations and geopolitical alliances, and discusses the potential consequences of the conflict for India, especially concerning its energy needs and the safety of its citizens in the region.

40:12

🔥 Historical Context and Long-term Rivalries

The script concludes by tracing the historical roots of the Iran-Israel rivalry, from their close relations before Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution to their current status as arch-enemies. It discusses how geopolitical shifts and mutual support for opposing factions in regional conflicts have fueled decades of animosity. The final note calls for an understanding of these historical dynamics to grasp the complexities of their ongoing conflict.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Vantage

Vantage is the title of the news program being discussed in the video script, hosted by Py Sharma. It sets the stage for an in-depth analysis on international relations, specifically focusing on the recent conflict between Israel and Iran. The use of 'Vantage' suggests a perspective or viewpoint on current events, aiming to provide viewers with a clear and comprehensive understanding of complex geopolitical issues.

💡Iran-Israel conflict

The Iran-Israel conflict refers to the long-standing and complex hostilities between Iran and Israel, characterized by a series of proxy wars, diplomatic tensions, and direct confrontations. In the script, this conflict is highlighted by the recent exchange of missile and drone attacks, marking a significant escalation as Iran directly targeted Israeli territory for the first time. This conflict is central to the video's theme as it discusses potential outcomes, international reactions, and regional implications.

💡Proxy war

A proxy war involves third-party countries or groups fighting on behalf of more powerful states. In the context of the video, Iran and Israel have engaged in proxy wars using allied groups in the region, such as Hezbollah for Iran, and various Kurdish groups for Israel. These conflicts allow the main actors to exert influence and engage in warfare indirectly, which is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the Middle Eastern conflicts discussed in the video.

💡Iron Dome

The Iron Dome is an air defense system developed by Israel, designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells. In the video, it is mentioned as being instrumental in shooting down missiles and drones fired by Iran towards Israel, illustrating its role in mitigating the impact of such attacks. This is crucial for understanding Israel's defensive capabilities and the technological aspects of the conflict.

💡De-escalation

De-escalation refers to the process of reducing tensions or conflict intensity. It is a key concept in the video as multiple nations and international organizations, including India and the G7, call for Iran and Israel to de-escalate their recent hostilities. This term is critical for understanding the international community's approach to potentially explosive geopolitical conflicts.

💡Ayatollah

Ayatollah is a high-ranking title given to Shia Muslim clerics in Iran who are considered authorities on religious and legal matters. In the script, Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, plays a pivotal role in sanctioning the attack on Israel, highlighting the theocratic aspect of Iranian governance and its influence on international relations.

💡Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu is mentioned as the Prime Minister of Israel, a key figure in determining Israel's response to Iranian attacks. His decisions, whether to escalate the conflict or seek a truce, are crucial to the unfolding events in the Middle East. The video discusses his potential strategies and political motivations, shedding light on leadership roles in times of crisis.

💡Economic impact

The economic impact is a significant aspect discussed in the video, particularly in terms of how the conflict between Iran and Israel might affect global oil prices, trade routes, and economies. This term helps viewers understand the broader implications of Middle Eastern conflicts on global markets and economic stability.

💡Ironclad support

Ironclad support refers to an unwavering commitment, often used in diplomatic contexts. In the video, U.S. President Joe Biden's 'ironclad support' for Israel signifies a strong and non-negotiable alliance between the United States and Israel. This term is central to understanding international alliances and their impact on regional conflicts.

💡Regional players

Regional players refer to countries and entities within a geographic area that have an interest or influence in a particular situation. In the context of the video, countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria are discussed as regional players in the Iran-Israel conflict. Understanding the roles and perspectives of these players is vital for grasping the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Highlights

Iran directly strikes Israeli territory for the first time, a significant escalation in the conflict.

Israel's air defense systems, including Iron Dome and Aros, successfully intercept the majority of Iranian projectiles.

Iran's attack, while causing minimal physical damage, sends a strong political message of retaliation.

The international community expresses concern, with global powers urging restraint and de-escalation.

Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure regarding Israel's response, balancing military action with international diplomatic expectations.

President Joe Biden's administration signals a desire for de-escalation, emphasizing defense rather than offensive support.

Iran's strategy includes using proxies and signaling controlled responses to avoid full-scale war.

The attack raises questions about the future stability of the region and the potential for a broader conflict.

The involvement of regional players like Saudi Arabia, who calls for UN-led de-escalation efforts.

The potential economic impact of the conflict on global oil prices and regional trade.

India's delicate position, balancing its relations with both Iran and Israel amid the escalating conflict.

The historical context of Iran and Israel's relationship, from close allies to bitter enemies after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The strategic military capabilities of both Iran and Israel, highlighting their respective strengths and weaknesses.

The role of public opinion in Iran, with state media portraying the attack as a significant blow to Israel.

The broader implications for US foreign policy in the region, particularly in relation to maintaining alliances and responding to aggression.

Transcripts

00:05

[Music]

00:08

hello namaskar this is first post and

00:10

you're watching a special edition of

00:11

vantage with me py Sharma

00:16

[Music]

00:33

Israel and Iran are s enemies they

00:35

promised to wipe each other off the face

00:36

of the the Earth and this is not an

00:38

exaggeration 2 weeks ago Israel struck

00:40

the Iranian Consulate in Damascus Syria

00:43

and now Iran has struck back it rained

00:45

some 300 missiles and drones on Israel

00:47

the damage was minimal but the message

00:49

was clear Iran won't take it lying down

00:52

and even though the word unprecedented

00:54

is abused in the news media a lot this

00:57

this one was truly unprecedented

01:00

Iran has never in the past directly

01:03

struck Israeli territory I guess the

01:06

million dollar question then is what

01:07

happens next will it blow into a bigger

01:09

war or will cooler heads prevail what

01:11

are netanyahu's options why did Iran's

01:14

Ayatollah have to strike who's military

01:16

force is superior can Joe Biden still

01:19

stay away from war why is this conflict

01:21

a headache for India how will it impact

01:23

you oil prices flights economy we'll

01:26

cover it all tonight also look at the

01:28

regional players who stands where

01:30

and why are Iran and Israel enemies in

01:33

the first place all this is more coming

01:34

up in the special edition of Vantage the

01:36

headlines

01:38

[Music]

01:39

first in India Prime Minister Modi

01:42

releases the bjp's manifesto ahead of

01:44

Elections the document titled prime

01:45

minister modi's guarantee focuses on

01:48

women the youth the poor and the farmers

01:50

the manifesto promises to implement the

01:51

uniform civil code and the citizenship

01:53

Amendment act it also guarantees that

01:55

India will soon be the third largest

01:57

economy

01:59

[Music]

02:00

Australian police identify the Sydney

02:02

Mall attacker the asent was a

02:04

40-year-old man suffering from mental

02:06

illness on Saturday he went on a

02:08

stabbing Rampage at a shopping center

02:11

killing six people and injuring many

02:12

others he was shot dead by a police

02:15

officer at the

02:17

sea Venezuela outraged over a new oil

02:21

lease of Guyana karakas rejects the

02:24

concession that gyana has given the US

02:26

oil firm Exon Mobile in 2015 oil was

02:30

discovered in these disputed Waters

02:31

since then the long-standing dispute

02:33

between Venezuela and Guyana has only

02:37

intensified Solomon Islands prepares for

02:40

polls under China Shadow the archipelago

02:42

is caught in a tussle between China and

02:44

the West its current prime minister has

02:46

vowed to strengthen bonds with Beijing

02:48

if reelected voting will take place on

02:50

the 17th of

02:52

April and at least 19 people killed in

02:55

the landslide in central Indonesia

02:57

several others are missing torrential

02:58

rains triggered this landslide slide in

03:00

the last few months the region has been

03:01

hit by several

03:09

landslides a number of Iranian missiles

03:13

fell inside Israeli territory causing

03:16

minor damage

03:26

[Music]

03:39

it's one of the worst feelings ever

03:41

knowing something will happen but not

03:43

knowing when Israel's experienced that

03:46

feeling for most of last week the

03:47

Iranian military was poised to strike

03:49

them but no one knew when when late last

03:53

night it happened hundreds of

03:55

projectiles were fired towards Israel

03:57

we're talking about a cocktail of

03:59

weapons Israel counted more than 300 of

04:02

them 170 drones 30 cruise missiles and

04:06

110 ballistic missiles they were fired

04:09

from different locations from Iran from

04:10

Syria from Iraq and from Yemen but

04:13

Israel was ready for it you see this was

04:16

a widely expected attack a tit fortat

04:18

response last week Israel had struck

04:20

Iran's Embassy in Syria they ended up

04:22

killing top Iranian commanders so Iran

04:25

was always going to respond which is why

04:27

Israel and its allies were ready

04:30

they say around 99% of the projectiles

04:32

were shot down some over the Iraqi and

04:34

Syrian airspace the rest over Israel it

04:38

filled the night sky with explosions

04:40

take a look

04:43

[Music]

04:51

[Applause]

04:53

[Music]

04:59

[Music]

05:05

[Applause]

05:05

[Music]

05:08

now 300 is a big number but these drones

05:10

and missiles caused very little damage

05:12

around 12 people were injured and one

05:14

girl was killed plus a military base in

05:17

southern Israel was slightly damaged I

05:20

guess the obvious question is how it was

05:22

a joint effort by Israel's allies

05:25

especially the US and the UK both

05:27

countries had moved in important assets

05:30

to the region the US and the UK so when

05:32

Iran attacked they were ready fighter

05:35

jets took off from undisclosed bases in

05:37

the region they shot down most of the

05:39

drones before they reached the target

05:41

even Jordan took down a few projectiles

05:44

of course some did make it to Israel but

05:47

those were shot down by the air defense

05:48

system and there are many layers to it

05:52

but this time two of them were key the

05:54

Aros system which shoots down long range

05:56

missiles and the Iron Dome which shoots

05:58

down short range

06:00

Rockets both use the same concept track

06:03

a projectile fire ammunition at it and

06:06

blow it up in the sky it's costly but

06:09

clearly effective but good defense was

06:11

not the only reason for the limited

06:13

damage Iran's attack was half-hearted

06:17

they wanted to create a spectacle they

06:19

wanted to appease their domestic

06:21

audience but damage perhaps was not

06:23

their goal Iran's foreign minister

06:25

Minister has admitted this he says thean

06:28

had informed the us about the nature of

06:30

its

06:31

attacks we announced to the White House

06:33

in a message this morning that our

06:35

operations will be limited and minimal

06:37

with the aim of legitimate defense and

06:39

Punishment of the Israeli

06:42

regime which brings us to the reactions

06:45

the world is understandably worried

06:47

because damage or not this attack is

06:49

unprecedented in the past Iran has used

06:51

proxies to strike Israel like hisbah and

06:55

Hamas they have never used their own

06:58

military this this is the first direct

07:01

Iranian attack on Israel which makes it

07:03

very significant that was also the that

07:06

was also in fact reflected in the ground

07:08

reactions Iranians were over the moon

07:11

they took out bike rallies and marches

07:13

in thran and they called it a proud and

07:15

happy

07:16

[Music]

07:19

moment we hope this attack continues to

07:21

the point that Israel is

07:24

[Applause]

07:28

destroyed we will never allow anyone to

07:31

violate Iranian territory any enemy

07:34

contemplating aggression against Iran

07:36

will meet the same fate as

07:40

[Applause]

07:45

Israel so celebrations in Iran over in

07:48

Israel things were more

07:50

subdued some said they were used to the

07:53

rocket and missile barrage others were

07:55

more wary

08:00

actually all heard about the attack of

08:01

the of Iran but uh we're not afraid

08:04

because we went to to celebrate birthday

08:07

of our one of our friends and we already

08:09

got used to being attacked for the last

08:11

6

08:13

[Music]

08:18

months the situation is really

08:20

frightening because we're afraid of what

08:24

happens and all of uh bombing and

08:30

aircraft that are

08:35

coming so what next Iran says the

08:38

operation is over and they clearly mean

08:40

it if they wanted escalation this attack

08:43

would have looked very different plus

08:45

life is slowly returning to normal last

08:47

night most countries in the region had

08:49

shut their airspace but now they're back

08:52

up and

08:53

running even Israel has reopened its

08:55

airspace having said that the danger has

08:58

not passed far from it a lot depends on

09:00

Benin Netanyahu his War cabinet has been

09:02

asked to decide on a response the

09:04

question is what will they choose more

09:08

escalation or a truce Israel's own

09:11

allies do not want an escalation they

09:12

have condemned Iran's missile attack but

09:15

they may not support retaliation look at

09:17

the reaction so far Joe Biden had a

09:19

phone call with Netanyahu he called

09:21

Iran's attack Brazen he also promised

09:23

Ironclad support for Israel UK prime

09:25

minister Rishi sonak released a similar

09:27

statement he called Iran's attack re

09:29

less he also accused Teran of sowing

09:31

chaos in the region so did German

09:33

Chancellor Olaf Schulz he said the

09:35

attack was unjustifiable and

09:37

irresponsible so the West is firmly

09:40

behind

09:41

Israel maybe not on escalating the

09:44

conflict but definitely on condemning

09:47

Iran if this attack had been successful

09:50

The Fallout for regional stability would

09:53

be hard to overstate and we stand by the

09:55

security of Israel and The Wider region

09:58

which is of course important for us

09:59

security here at home

10:02

too this is an unjustifiable attack this

10:05

is a serious escalation of the situation

10:07

and it is in no way acceptable

10:10

understandable or tolerable fortunately

10:12

the Israeli Air Defense Forces largely

10:15

succeeded in fending off this attack

10:17

supported by the USA and partners also

10:20

in the Arab

10:23

world now we come to the other Camp

10:26

Russia and China two countries that have

10:28

closed relations with Iran Russia has

10:30

expressed concern over the attack they

10:31

have advised restraint but the statement

10:33

also mentions Israel strike on the

10:36

Iranian consulate so a bit of a

10:37

balancing act there same with China they

10:40

too have called for restraint but

10:41

Beijing says it is a spillover of the

10:44

Gaza conflict so China is saying fix

10:47

Gaza first the rest will fall in place

10:50

and what about India New Delhi has

10:52

called for deescalation and restraint it

10:53

has advised a return to diplomacy much

10:56

like Arab Nations Saudi Arabia wants the

10:58

UN security to take the lead it has

11:00

asked Israel and Iran to avoid

11:03

war but will they listen the next few

11:06

hours will be very important Israel has

11:08

requested a meeting of the United

11:10

Nations security Council it will be

11:12

convening in a few hours from now

11:13

meanwhile Biden has gathered the G7

11:16

leaders if they together put pressure on

11:19

Benjamin Netanyahu they can prevent an

11:21

escalation perhaps of course A minor

11:23

Fallout is still

11:24

expected Israel has already struck

11:26

Eastern Lebanon they're going out after

11:28

Iran's proxy the hisbah but that

11:31

conflict has not boiled over yet whether

11:34

it does or not depends on Israel's next

11:43

move now before we discuss what happens

11:46

next first let's tell you how this

11:48

attack took shape what happened behind

11:50

the scenes what were Iran's calculations

11:53

who did they speak to and what kind of

11:55

support did they

11:57

have now this enmity is a very very old

11:59

story but the latest episode began

12:01

exactly 2 weeks ago when the Israelis

12:03

struck the Iranian Consulate in

12:06

Damascus Iran immediately vowed to take

12:11

revenge this failure of the Israeli

12:13

regime in Gaza will definitely continue

12:16

as well as these desperate efforts like

12:18

what they did in Syria of course they

12:20

will be slapped for this

12:27

action now the question was was what

12:29

would be the scale of the attack or in

12:31

the ayatollah's words how hard would the

12:34

slap be Iran had a lot to consider the

12:37

last thing they can afford right now is

12:39

a direct war with Israel at the same

12:41

time they couldn't have done nothing and

12:43

we'll tell you why in a bit so on camera

12:45

Iranian officials started talking tough

12:47

and behind the scenes they began gaming

12:49

the scenarios and their assessment was

12:52

this Netanyahu was trying to pull them

12:54

into a wider regional conflict so they

12:57

reached out to other to other Regional

12:58

players

13:00

like Oman Iran contacted Oman and asked

13:04

them to deliver some messages to the us

13:07

and this is not a first Oman has often

13:09

acted as a go between for the Iranians

13:12

and the Americans so last Sunday the

13:14

Iranian foreign minister traveled to

13:16

Oman and he apparently delivered two

13:18

clear messages number one Iran will

13:20

respond to Israel's attack in a quote

13:22

unquote controlled and non- escalatory

13:25

way and number two Iran will deploy its

13:27

proxies for the mission

13:30

and that's exactly what they did the

13:31

missiles and drones were launched from

13:33

at least four different countries like

13:35

we told you Iran Iraq Syria and Yemen so

13:37

in a way the US had prior warning from

13:39

Iran and this communication was supposed

13:41

to be a

13:43

secret but the story got out the White

13:45

House faced questions it was asked if

13:47

the Iranians had made contact and

13:49

Biden's press secretary did not deny it

13:53

has Iran been in touch via

13:55

intermediaries with Washington to

13:57

indicate that when it responds to

14:00

Israel's attack on on its Embassy on its

14:03

Syrian Embassy that it will not escalate

14:05

we've been also very clear I'm not going

14:06

to get into public back and forth we

14:08

warn Iran not to use uh this attack as a

14:11

pretext to escalate further in the

14:13

region or attack us facilities or person

14:15

Personnel I'm going to be super mindful

14:18

not to to speak beyond that from here or

14:20

elaborate

14:22

further so neither confirmation nor

14:24

denial when you connect the dots this is

14:26

what you get the inputs from tan could

14:29

be shaping Washington's response

14:31

yesterday just hours before the Iranian

14:33

strikes Joe Biden spoke with Benin

14:35

Netanyahu the US president promis to

14:37

help Israel defend itself but if Israel

14:39

chooses to retaliate the Americans won't

14:42

support that operation that's what Biden

14:43

is said to have told Netanyahu so while

14:45

he's calling the support to Israel

14:47

Ironclad he also wants to make it

14:50

conditional Washington also expects

14:52

Israeli officials to inform them before

14:54

launching any

14:56

operation again the question is will nth

14:59

pay heed to this or will he launch a

15:07

Counterattack now I know Grand

15:09

statements never help but this one is

15:11

pretty spot-on the immediate future of

15:14

West Asia depends on one man Benjamin

15:18

Netanyahu the prime minister of Israel

15:21

this situation is tailor made for him

15:23

it's a chance to take the focus away

15:25

from Gaza it's also a chance to fulfill

15:27

his career-long go goal to strike deep

15:30

inside Iran to take out their strategic

15:33

assets including their nuclear sites

15:36

just one problem though his allies are

15:38

not on board both the US and the UK have

15:40

urged deescalation like I said Biden has

15:43

reportedly made his stand clear to

15:44

nanahu if you attack Iran we will not

15:47

help but where does that leave the prime

15:49

minister of Israel what options does he

15:52

have in public Netanyahu is defiant he

15:55

says Israel is ready for all scenarios

15:57

both defensive and offensive

16:01

citizens of Israel in recent years and

16:03

especially in recent weeks Israel has

16:05

been preparing for a direct attack by

16:07

Iran our defensive systems are deployed

16:10

we are ready for any scenario both

16:12

defensively and offensively the state of

16:15

Israel is strong the IDF is strong the

16:19

public is

16:22

strong so he's not ruled out retaliation

16:25

and you can see why netanyahu's

16:27

popularity has hit rock bottom the only

16:28

only thing keeping him in office is the

16:31

Gaza War but he's running out of places

16:33

to attack Israel has reached the

16:35

southernmost point of Gaza so he's got

16:38

to wind up the War sooner or later which

16:40

means he may have to step down and in

16:42

that context a conflict with Iran would

16:44

help him it would extend his time in

16:47

office but the trade-off would be huge

16:50

Israel's last attack was an was on

16:53

Iranian consulate so Tan's response was

16:56

lukewarm borderline performative but

16:59

what if Israel strikes Iranian cities

17:01

and Military

17:02

targets chances are the response won't

17:05

be

17:09

Luka if the Zionist regime takes any

17:11

action against the Islamic Republic

17:14

whether on our soil or in places

17:16

belonging to us in Syria or elsewhere

17:20

our next operation will be much larger

17:29

so what options does Netanyahu have we

17:31

can think of three of them the first is

17:33

to call it

17:34

Square Israel's First Strike killed top

17:37

Iranian commanders compared to that Iran

17:39

did not cause much damage so Netanyahu

17:41

can leave it at that a score of 1-1 the

17:44

second option is to Target Iranian

17:46

proxies now we've already seen attacks

17:48

on the hisbah in in Lebanon Israel can

17:50

keep doing that Iran has many assets and

17:53

Military sites in the region like in

17:55

Syria in Iraq and Yemen Israel could

17:58

choose to Target them instead it's

18:00

relatively low risk and finally option

18:03

number three hit back inside Iran this

18:07

would likely lead to a cycle of

18:08

reprisals in the worst case even War so

18:12

will benan Netanyahu risk it logic says

18:15

he won't but in the last 6

18:17

months we've not seen a lot of display

18:20

of that logic so we've also seen a lot

18:23

of confusing decisions some of which

18:25

make no strategic sense so a lot depends

18:28

on netanyahu's allies first of all how

18:30

much pressure can the West put on him

18:33

will they threaten to cut off military

18:34

aid same with Israel's neighbors a wider

18:38

War would affect all of them it would

18:39

disrupt oil trade via the straight of

18:41

hormos and Iran has always threatened to

18:43

close it and this would give them the

18:44

perfect excuse to do it around 30% 30

18:48

30% of global oil trade passes via this

18:51

route if Iran shuts it West Asia will

18:54

suffer that's enough reason for them to

18:57

urge deescalation

18:59

I guess it's all about appetite and

19:01

ambition Netanyahu has enough reasons to

19:04

claim a success he took out top Iranian

19:07

commanders he repelled a massive Iranian

19:09

attack plus he red rallied his Western

19:12

allies for most people that would be a

19:14

win but nanahu does not think like that

19:18

he's not just focused on Israel's

19:20

strategic goals he's also focused on his

19:22

political career which is why this is a

19:24

dangerous moment Israel's war cabinet is

19:27

meeting to discuss the way for forward

19:29

there are three members in this cabinet

19:31

one of them is Benny Gans he's a former

19:32

Defense Minister also a rival of

19:34

Netanyahu Gans says Israel will respond

19:38

at the right

19:41

time in the face of the Iranian threat

19:44

we will build a regional Coalition and

19:46

exact the price from Iran in the fashion

19:49

and timing that is right for us and most

19:52

importantly faced with the desire of our

19:54

enemies to harm us we will continue to

19:57

unite and become stronger

20:01

chances are there will be some sort of

20:02

response the only question is how far

20:05

will it

20:09

go now let's look at the other side and

20:12

that is Iran and their leader ayat Ali K

20:16

is Iran's Grand Ayatollah that's a

20:19

religious title it makes him the

20:21

ultimate Authority in Theocratic Iran

20:23

he's the country's top leader 84 years

20:26

old will be 85 this week he's been in

20:28

power since 1989 making him one of the

20:31

longest serving leaders in West Asia he

20:34

holds constitutional authority over the

20:36

Judiciary the Army the Revolutionary

20:38

guard and the state media so the buck

20:40

stops with this man and he is definitely

20:43

the one who sanctioned the attack on

20:45

Israel he cleared it last week he had

20:47

promised that Israel would be quote

20:49

unquote slapped and now he claims to

20:51

have delivered to the great joy of many

20:54

in Iran take a look at this

21:06

[Applause]

21:13

[Applause]

21:18

we were extremely happy with this action

21:20

of the irgc and in fact we felt better

21:24

after a long time this was a help and

21:27

companionship with the oppressed people

21:28

of Gaza and the West

21:33

Bank this sadness and anger remained in

21:36

the hearts of all of us and we were

21:37

always waiting for this Revenge to be

21:39

carried out and for the Israelis to be

21:41

punished for their brutality and we

21:43

couldn't believe it when the news came

21:44

last

21:47

night that Banner with the missile you

21:49

see it is up in thran's Palestine Square

21:53

it has a message in both Farsi and

21:54

Hebrew in Farsi or Persian it says the

21:57

next lap will be harder in Hebrew it

22:00

says your next mistake will be the end

22:02

of your

22:04

state dual messaging and that's not a

22:07

coincidence it explains why the people

22:09

of Iran are Overjoyed even though

22:12

Israel seems relatively

22:14

unharmed Israel says the so-called slap

22:17

was ineffective they say 99% of Iran's

22:20

missiles and drones were shot down but

22:23

that's not what the people in Iran are

22:25

hearing

22:28

the statement announced the launch of

22:30

missiles and drones to Targets in

22:32

occupied lands that successfully hit the

22:36

targets he's saying they successfully

22:38

hit the targets the irgc that's Iran's

22:40

Islamic revolutionary guard core issued

22:43

a statement they like a parallel

22:45

military body their job is to defend

22:46

Iran from external and internal threats

22:49

and they report to the Ayatollah now

22:50

this body the irgc says it successfully

22:53

hit Targets in Israel and that's what

22:56

the Iranian State media is now reporting

22:58

so the people in Iran are being told

23:01

that quote unquote heavy blows have been

23:03

dealt to the Israelis especially the air

23:06

base in the Nev desert the nevatim air

23:09

base the base that was used to launch

23:11

the air strikes on the Iranian Consulate

23:13

in Syria and Israel admits that some

23:16

missiles did hit this base but they say

23:18

it was minor infrastructure damage in

23:21

fact the Israelis even released this

23:23

footage later purportedly showing the

23:25

base still in use

23:30

but of course the people in Iran do not

23:32

see any of this they saw the missiles

23:34

going towards Israel their news channels

23:36

are apparently quoting the special

23:38

forces the irgc saying that heavy blows

23:40

were dealt to Israel and so the people

23:44

in Iran think that aah K has given a

23:47

resounding response to the

23:49

Israelis and they were celebrating

24:02

[Music]

24:21

[Music]

24:22

brings us to K's game plan he could not

24:24

afford to look weak a few years back the

24:26

Americans killed kasim suani last week

24:29

the Israelis killed Iranian generals the

24:30

regime in tan was already on the back

24:33

foot domestically the economy is in a

24:34

shambles their currency the real has H

24:36

an alltime low inflation is touching 50%

24:39

we've seen public protests in the last

24:40

few years in 2022 there was the anti-h

24:43

hijab protest where the people fought

24:45

back against the Iranian regime and it

24:47

was only quelled by Brute Force given

24:50

this backdrop and now the attack on

24:52

their Consulate in Syria K could not

24:55

afford to look

24:56

weak he could not AFF for the people of

24:59

Iran or for the Iranian proxies outside

25:01

to think that the regime cannot stand up

25:04

to Israel so in some ways last night's

25:06

attack was K's only option of course

25:09

that does not make it right and it will

25:11

have its own set of consequences K may

25:13

have stamped out some domestic Embers of

25:16

resentment but he may have just started

25:18

a fire around the

25:24

world and speaking of this fire let's

25:26

turn to the US where president Jo Biden

25:28

is in a

25:29

fix here's how Washington would see this

25:33

strike Iran America's biggest problem in

25:37

West Asia has openly attacked America's

25:40

closest friend in the

25:43

region the Iran has crossed a red line

25:45

it never dared to before and it happened

25:48

under Biden's

25:50

watch he should be sweating at the very

25:53

thought of having to explain this when

25:55

Biden heard about the attack he rushed

25:57

back to the White House he had a call

25:58

with Netanyahu and then issued a

26:02

statement and the last two lines of the

26:04

statement are the ones to note Biden

26:07

said his support for Israel was

26:10

Ironclad and that the United States will

26:12

stand with the people of Israel and

26:14

support their defense against these

26:17

threats from Iran it sounds like the

26:20

usual token statement but maybe the word

26:22

defense should be looked at closely

26:24

because apparently that's as far as

26:26

Biden is willing to go during the he

26:28

reportedly said that the Iranian attack

26:30

had been foiled and that Netanyahu

26:32

should quote unquote take the

26:34

win this doesn't mean Biden has washed

26:36

his hands off the matter he is planning

26:38

a diplomatic offensive along with the G7

26:42

and the US will of course back Israel at

26:43

the United Nations security Council meet

26:45

that has been called today but that

26:47

doesn't really give the same impact does

26:50

it Iran fired missiles Biden will wag

26:54

his finger and fire

26:56

sanctions it doesn't make him look look

26:58

too tough even if it may be the wiser

27:01

course of action to prevent an allout

27:03

war in West Asia but this defensive

27:05

strategy leaves Biden open to political

27:08

attacks at home which by the way have

27:10

already begun listen to this before

27:13

going any further I want to say God

27:15

Bless the people of Israel they're under

27:17

attack right now that's that's because

27:20

we show great weakness this would not

27:23

happen the weakness that we've shown

27:25

it's unbelievable and it would not

27:28

happened if we were in office you know

27:30

that they know that everybody knows

27:32

that Trump has made his move he has

27:35

blamed the attack on Biden's weakness

27:36

and not just last night's attack Trump

27:38

has blamed everything else on Joe Biden

27:41

too it wasn't only Putin it was Putin

27:43

and plenty of other things that Biden

27:45

got wrong with Putin Ukraine would have

27:48

never happened Israel attack both

27:51

October 7th and today would have never

27:56

happened it's impossible to accurately

27:58

predict what could have happened but

28:00

Trump doesn't need to be accurate he

28:02

just needs to undermine the people's

28:04

confidence in Biden which will probably

28:05

be easy after this latest mess it leaves

28:08

Biden in an unenviable position having

28:11

to decide what

28:13

next as much as Biden would like to stay

28:16

on the defense it's not just his call to

28:18

make Netanyahu has been attacked he of

28:21

all people will want to respond he has a

28:23

tough guy reputation to uphold and he

28:25

might throw Biden under the bus to do it

28:28

a US senator Tim Kain says Biden is wary

28:31

of Netanyahu and Biden apparently knows

28:34

that he was quote unquote played by the

28:36

Israeli PM this was during the early

28:38

months of the Gaza War which explains

28:40

his change in stance remember Biden flew

28:43

down to Israel when the October 7th

28:45

attack took place he hugged Netanyahu as

28:47

soon as he landed and he said the US

28:49

would always be by Israel's

28:53

side but that equation has changed in

28:55

recent weeks the civilian death toll was

28:57

mounting the and Israel was threatening

28:59

to attack Rafa in Gaza the last City in

29:02

Gaza that is that has been left standing

29:04

where hundreds of thousands of

29:05

Palestinians are taking Refuge so Biden

29:08

issued a

29:09

threat the US Aid to

29:12

Israel would be conditional if Netanyahu

29:16

did not do more to protect civilians it

29:19

looked like Biden had run out of

29:20

patience the shift also suited his

29:23

politics with the American Muslim V

29:24

voters so he seemed ready to reign in

29:27

Ben

29:29

nanahu but a lot has changed now what

29:31

happens next what happens if Netanyahu

29:34

attacks Iran it will begin a new cycle

29:36

of violence and eye for an eye scenario

29:39

until the entirety of West Asia is on

29:41

fire will Joe Biden allow Israel to burn

29:43

down probably not Israel is America's

29:46

closest Ally Biden will not be able to

29:48

sit back and watch he either abandons

29:51

Israel or joins it and whatever comes

29:53

next the middle ground it seems is gone

29:56

and this has put Biden in a terrible

29:58

position he doesn't really have the

30:00

freedom to choose his next

30:07

move now let's look at the worst case

30:09

scenario because that's what you do in

30:11

situations like this look at all

30:12

possibilities hoping it doesn't come to

30:14

the worst what would a full-blown war

30:17

between Iran and Israel look like how do

30:20

they compare

30:22

militarily their capabilities are very

30:24

different Israel is one of west Asia's

30:26

most powerful militaries and Iran is one

30:28

of the largest whose force is superior

30:31

what kind of fire power do they have and

30:33

who has a better shot at winning our

30:35

next report tells

30:39

[Music]

30:41

you the drum beats of War are sounding

30:44

in West Asia yet again Israel and Iran

30:46

are in the middle of an escalating

30:48

crisis at the heart of it lies a crucial

30:51

question if the worst case scenario were

30:54

to unfold who will come out on top

30:58

Israel versus Iran whose military might

31:01

has the upper

31:04

hand on the surface the numbers favor

31:07

Iran Iran has a huge population at least

31:10

in comparison to Israel Iran is home to

31:13

about 89 million people as compared to

31:15

Israel's population of about 10 million

31:19

so on paper it's Advantage Iran

31:21

particularly when it comes to the size

31:23

of its

31:25

military the Iranian Armed Forces are

31:28

among the largest in West Asia with at

31:30

least 580,000 active duty personnel and

31:34

200,000 trained Reserve Personnel how

31:37

big is Israel's military it has about

31:39

170,000 active personnel and 465,000

31:44

reservists so Iran's active Personnel is

31:47

more than Thrice that of Israel's it

31:49

also has a larger Navy more tanks and

31:52

armored vehicles and greater access to

31:54

fuel so far Iran seems to have the upper

31:57

hand but there is a catch raw data alone

32:00

doesn't tell you the whole story

32:03

quantitative factors play a role yes but

32:05

so do qualitative ones like training and

32:08

advancement of technology and the nation

32:11

that comes out on top here is the one

32:13

with more money which is

32:15

Israel Iran has a GDP of $413 billion

32:20

while Israel's GDP stands at $539

32:24

billion this affects their respective

32:26

military budgets reportedly Iran's is at

32:29

$10 billion whereas Israel has a

32:31

military budget of $24.4 billion that's

32:35

almost 2.5 times

32:38

higher but the biggest advantage that

32:40

Israel has is that its military is

32:42

backed by the United States America

32:45

provides Israel with a $3.8 billion

32:47

annual military assistance this has

32:50

allowed Israel to have more advanced

32:52

Weaponry with Superior Force Readiness

32:54

making it one of west Asia's most

32:56

powerful militaries

32:59

let's see how this plays out on land

33:01

Water and Air in terms of tank force

33:04

like the zulfiker series and the karar

33:06

MPT Iran builds its own tanks usually

33:10

they are based on outdated designs then

33:13

there are t-72s t-54s and t-55s which

33:16

are Iranian copies and considered

33:18

inferior to the Israeli defense tanks

33:21

like the marava Mark 4 which is one of

33:23

the best armored tanks in the

33:26

game now let's look at the Navy Iran's

33:29

Navy is larger than Israel's but not as

33:32

robust Israel's Navy has access to

33:35

American and European suppliers and

33:37

their Advanced missiles and vessels now

33:40

when it comes to air power contrary to

33:42

the numbers Trend Israel's force is

33:44

larger than Iran's its Arsenal includes

33:47

612 aircraft to Iran's

33:50

551 its primary fighting force consists

33:53

of at least 66 f-15s 175 F16

33:58

and 27 F35 stealth Fighters it's also

34:01

regarded as one of the best in the world

34:04

has about 63 f4s and 26

34:08

f14s in comparison Iran's air Arsenal is

34:11

believed to be aging rapidly so Israel

34:14

has superior quality which is why Iran

34:16

is using another tactic on the

34:18

battlefield deploying weapons in large

34:22

quantities Iran has a substantial

34:25

inventory of ballistic and cruise

34:26

missiles they are capable of striking

34:29

targets about 2,000 km away this puts

34:32

Israel well within its range and during

34:35

the weekends attack tan launched dozens

34:37

of explosive Laden drones these are

34:40

Iran's

34:41

Pride they are unmanned aerial Vehicles

34:44

believed to be Shah heads meaning

34:46

witness in Farsi these are long range

34:49

drones which have been called the AK-47s

34:52

of tan because they are cheap

34:54

mass-produced and deadly

34:58

plus Iran is not without allies one of

35:00

its most important is the Lebanese

35:02

militia Hezbollah according to Israeli

35:05

intelligence hezbollah's Arsenal

35:07

contains more than 70,000 rockets and

35:09

missiles including long range and

35:11

precision guided missiles but then again

35:14

conventional forces aren't the only ones

35:16

that can be used on a battlefield Israel

35:19

is believed to possess the ability to

35:20

launch nuclear strikes from Land Air and

35:23

sea Israel has never openly confirmed or

35:26

denied its possession of new nuclear

35:28

weapons so Iran has the numbers Israel

35:31

has the technology while you can't

35:33

predict a clear winner if this conflict

35:36

escalates any further there's no doubt

35:38

over who will be the Biggest Loser the

35:41

already rest of region and its millions

35:43

of

35:49

people and where does India feature in

35:51

this conflict in the middle again both

35:54

Israel and Iran are very important

35:56

partners for India and has all kinds of

35:57

Investments there both political and

35:59

economic so picking a side is virtually

36:02

impossible and New Delhi statement

36:04

reflects this let me quote what the

36:06

statement from India says we are

36:08

seriously concerned at the escalation of

36:10

hostilities between Israel and Iran we

36:14

call for immediate deescalation exercise

36:16

of restraint stepping back from violence

36:18

and return to the path of

36:23

diplomacy that's what the Indian

36:25

statement says no blame game no

36:26

criticism no taking sides India is

36:29

basically asking both countries to

36:30

deescalate and we'll get to the

36:32

Strategic considerations in a bit but

36:34

first India has a more immedate concern

36:36

on Saturday Iran captured a ship near

36:39

the straight of hormos it's called the

36:41

MSC Aries Reports say the ship is linked

36:44

to an Israeli businessman so Iran seized

36:47

it around 25 people are on board the

36:51

vessel 17 of them are Indian so getting

36:53

them released is a big priority Indian

36:56

officials have apparently reached

36:57

reached out to Iran they're trying to

36:58

get the sailors released which brings us

37:00

to the larger issue how will India

37:03

navigate this conflict if it's a short

37:05

one there isn't much to do but what if

37:08

Israel hits back what if things escalate

37:10

into a bigger conflict then India faces

37:13

some tough choices let's look at three

37:15

key factors trade relations political

37:18

relations and strategic relations you

37:21

start with trade the India Israel trade

37:23

is around $7.5 billion what about the

37:26

India Iran trade it's around $2.5

37:28

billion but there's a key difference

37:30

here Iran is sanctioned by Western

37:33

countries so India buys very little oil

37:35

from Iran before the sanctions trade was

37:37

much higher at about $13 billion in

37:41

2015 let's look at what this trade is

37:44

made up of Israel sells a lot of

37:47

military equipment to India in fact New

37:49

Delhi is Israel's top

37:51

buyer at the same time Iran is an oil

37:54

giant if the sanctions are lifted the

37:56

energy trade can flourish again so oil

37:58

and weapons two very important items

38:01

that India buys from these two

38:03

countries which brings us to the second

38:05

Factor political relations Prime

38:07

Minister Modi has invested a lot in his

38:09

relationship with Israel in fact he

38:11

deated it until then India could not

38:14

separate Israel and Palestine both

38:16

relations were interl but Modi decided

38:19

to separate

38:21

them in 2017 he went to Israel and since

38:24

then Israel has become a key partner of

38:26

India

38:27

with Iran it's been a different

38:29

trajectory there are cultural and

38:31

linguistic ties long-standing political

38:33

exchanges and even shared history there

38:36

have been some uncomfortable statements

38:38

and remarks especially on Kashmir but

38:40

the relationship has largely been

38:43

stable and that brings us to the final

38:45

Factor the Strategic relations India

38:47

sees Israel as a gateway to Europe last

38:49

year at the G20 Summit India announced a

38:52

new economic Corridor it would link

38:54

India to Europe via Israel plus both

38:57

countries are a part of a political

38:58

grouping called the

38:59

i2u2 India Israel the US and the UAE

39:02

hence

39:03

i2u2 it's also called the West Asian

39:06

Squad now with Iran India has other

39:08

shared interests for starters

39:10

Afghanistan both India and Iran support

39:13

the rights of Afghan minorities they

39:14

also oppose terror camps in Afghanistan

39:17

and like Israel India sees Iran as a

39:21

Gateway not to Europe but to Central

39:23

Asia New Delhi is building a trading

39:26

terminal in southeas at the Port of

39:28

chabahar it is India's first ever

39:31

overseas Port investment and how much is

39:33

it worth almost $ 85 million the plan is

39:36

to use chabahar to access Afghanistan

39:39

and Central

39:41

Asia this way India can s step Pakistan

39:44

so long story short both countries are

39:46

very important to India there's a lot of

39:48

money and strategic depth at stake which

39:51

is why taking sides won't be easy for

39:53

New Delhi if the fighting escalates

39:55

India will also have to think about its

39:57

citiz

39:58

there are 18,000 Indians living in

40:00

Israel also between 5,000 10,000 Indians

40:03

in Iran if you add the wi Gulf region a

40:06

lot more up to 9 million Indians live in

40:09

this region and don't forget the energy

40:11

trade around 4 40% of India's oil comes

40:15

from West Asia plus 70% of its gas so a

40:19

wider War would be a political and

40:21

economic nightmare for India hence New

40:24

Delhi is called for deescalation you've

40:26

seen a lot of of balancing acts from

40:28

India recently especially in Ukraine but

40:30

if this war drags on it could be India's

40:33

toughest challenge

40:39

yet in the last two years our world has

40:41

seen major Wars in 2022 it began with

40:45

the Russia Ukraine war in 2023 that's

40:47

last year Hamas terrorists attacked

40:48

Israel and Israel began a military

40:50

operation in Gaza which is yet to end

40:53

now Israel and Iran are engaged in a

40:56

direct Faceoff these conflicts impact

40:59

not just the countries involved but the

41:00

whole world they hurt the global economy

41:02

and disrupt Supply chains it's no wonder

41:04

that today's events have triggered more

41:07

uncertainty how will Iran's attack

41:09

impact oil prices will the global

41:11

markets be hit what about travel and

41:13

trade disruptions our next report tells

41:16

you all that you need to

41:18

know Iran's attack on Israel May reshape

41:22

the regional

41:24

Dynamics but in the immediate future

41:27

escalation of tensions in West Asia

41:29

threatens to [ __ ] an already fragile

41:31

global

41:33

economy oil the Region's most important

41:36

export remains vulnerable Iran's attack

41:38

could lead to a spike in prices already

41:41

the market for oil is volatile the price

41:43

of one barrel is inching closer to

41:47

$100 if there is a disruption in

41:49

supplies for a long period the daily

41:51

supply of crude could shrink by up to 8

41:54

million barrels a day how would the

41:56

shortage impact the the price the cost

41:58

of one barrel of oil could jump up to as

42:00

much as

42:01

$140 that's troubling news for countries

42:04

like India India Imports 85% of its

42:07

crude needs since late March prices have

42:10

jumped to a 4month high putting pressure

42:12

on the margins of Indian manufacturers

42:15

they cut fuel prices just last month if

42:18

the global prices don't stabilize soon

42:20

sustaining the lower prices may prove to

42:23

be challenging stock market investors

42:25

are wary too on Sunday West Asian

42:28

markets dipped after the Iranian attacks

42:31

stocks in Saudi Arabia Qatar and Israel

42:34

dipped the losses were relatively minor

42:38

American markets too are under pressure

42:40

on Friday the S&P 500 closed in the red

42:43

investors blamed geopolitical tensions

42:46

as the reason fears of a wider War could

42:49

make them more nervous cryptocurrency

42:51

also witnessed wild fluctuations when

42:54

Iran attacked Israel Bitcoin fell

42:56

sharply by 9% however the token

43:00

rebounded later in the day but if Israel

43:03

escalates bigger losses could be in

43:05

store in that case the aviation sector

43:08

May face the most significant

43:10

repercussions already a number of

43:12

Airlines have either called off flights

43:14

or rerouted their planes this includes

43:16

names like Quantas Airways Singapore

43:19

Airlines Lanza Kuwait Airways and swiss

43:22

International India's biggest airlines

43:24

are forced to take measures too flare

43:26

India vistara and indigo have suspended

43:29

their flights to tan they're also

43:31

avoiding the Iranian

43:34

airspace so if you have a flight

43:35

scheduled soon chances are it may take

43:38

longer for you to reach your destination

43:40

or Worse your flight may be canceled

43:42

altogether but it's not a crisis for

43:45

everyone investors in Gold are cheering

43:48

the global uncertainty has led to a

43:50

surge in Gold purchases the yellow metal

43:52

has gained by 133% already touching a

43:56

price record of $2,400 for an ounce

44:00

briefly however The Strife in West Asia

44:02

will give little Comfort to economists

44:05

already the IMF is worried about this

44:07

year's Outlook the scars of the

44:09

pandemics are still with us the global

44:13

output loss since 2020 is around $

44:18

33.3 trillion doar with the cost

44:23

disproportionately falling on the most

44:25

vulnerable countries and we see a

44:28

growing Divergence within and across

44:32

country groups since 20120 our world has

44:36

faced a slew of Crisis from the pandemic

44:39

to the many wars for the well-being of

44:42

the global economy it is critical that

44:45

cooler heads

44:51

prevail now let's zoom in a bit and take

44:54

a closer look at the region in direct

44:56

firing range

44:58

the other major players in West

45:00

Asia and I must say here that this

45:03

region has never been a beacon of

45:05

stability but last night's attack makes

45:07

it even more of a Tinder Box the Iranian

45:09

missiles and drones flew over multiple

45:11

countries before reaching Israel plus

45:13

Iran's proxies joined the attack we told

45:15

you about them like the hisbah it's a

45:17

group based in

45:19

Lebanon and Lebanon is major player

45:21

number one it has always been caught in

45:23

Israel's conflicts in fact Israel had

45:26

occupied the southern part of Lebanon

45:28

from 1985 to 2000 for almost 15 years so

45:31

if the Iran Israel fight escalates

45:34

Lebanon will likely get caught in the

45:35

war and they will side with

45:38

Iran next we have Syria the official

45:41

owners of the Golan Heights region

45:42

occupied by Israel and major player

45:44

number two Syria is another country

45:47

close to Iran their president is Bashar

45:49

alassad and he's still in power only

45:51

thanks to thean they helped him win a

45:54

civil war they're also armed Iran backed

45:58

groups in Syria like smaller versions of

46:00

the hisbah so if it comes to it Syria

46:02

will side with Iran then there's major

46:04

player number three Iraq and this is a

46:07

bit of a unique case on the one hand

46:09

Iraq has fought a major war against Iran

46:11

the first Gulf War in the 1980s but

46:14

since then the countries have come

46:15

together Iraq's prime minister is even

46:17

considered pro-iranian his path the to

46:19

the top job was helped by pro-iran

46:22

political parties Iran Iraq in fact also

46:25

has an Iraq many Iran iran-backed

46:28

militias on its soil they are in

46:31

Iraq so in the event of a war even if

46:34

Iraq stays out the government stays out

46:37

these militias will join Iran and

46:40

speaking of Iranian proxies there are

46:42

also some huthis in Yemen the group does

46:45

not just attack ships in the Red Sea

46:47

they're capable of reaching Israel as

46:49

well thanks to Iran made drones that The

46:52

huis Have and that makes Yemen major

46:55

player number four so we have Lebanon

46:58

Syria Iraq and Yemen directly or

47:01

indirectly these countries will be on

47:03

Iran's side but they aren't the only

47:05

ones with skin in the game you also have

47:07

the Arab states we'll start with with

47:10

Israel's neighbor Jordan major player

47:11

number five Jordan is home to US

47:14

military bases it is also home to

47:16

millions of Palestinians Jordan is

47:18

across the border from Israel so that is

47:19

where many Palestinian refugees took

47:21

shelter after their displacement during

47:24

the creation of Israel Millions still

47:25

live there and Jordan does not want any

47:28

more so it always tries to deescalate

47:31

tensions it is at the Forefront of peace

47:34

talks and it also helped shoot down

47:36

Iranian weapons last

47:39

night Jordan wants peace and calm to

47:42

return and an end to the influx of

47:45

refugees which brings us to major player

47:47

number six the leader of the Arab and

47:49

the Muslim world and that's Saudi Arabia

47:52

Iran and Saudi Arabia had been Rivals

47:54

for decades the two power centers in

47:56

West Asia but they buried the hatchet

47:57

last year they normalized ties Riyad

48:00

would not want to resume hostility so

48:02

expect the kingdom to try and calm

48:04

things down in fact look at Saudi

48:06

Arabia's statement it has called on all

48:09

parties to exercise utmost restraint and

48:12

spare the region and its people from the

48:15

dangers of War basically they're telling

48:18

everyone to calm down the other Arab

48:20

states are likely to follow riyad's lead

48:22

and considering their ties with the US

48:24

the Arab pressure may be key to keeping

48:26

the peace making Saudi Arabia the

48:29

biggest Regional player to watch right

48:36

now after Regional Players let's come

48:39

back to the protagonist Israel and

48:41

Iran why are they at War why have they

48:44

been fighting proxy battles for decades

48:46

how did they go from being close allies

48:48

to Arch Rivals that's right until the

48:51

1970s Iran and Israel were close allies

48:53

our next report tells you what changed

48:57

and

48:59

why the year was 1948 Israel was created

49:03

turkey became the first Muslim country

49:05

to recognize the Jewish state but can

49:08

you guess who was the second

49:10

surprisingly Iran which was home to the

49:13

biggest Jewish community in West Asia at

49:16

the time relations were anything but

49:18

hostile between Iran and Israel in fact

49:21

the two shared close ties they had

49:23

become allies under the last sha

49:26

Muhammad Resa pavi according to reports

49:29

Israel imported 40% of its oil from Iran

49:32

in exchange for agricultural produce

49:34

weapons and technology so how did the

49:37

two Nations go from being allies to

49:39

enemies the shift happened in

49:42

1979 this was the year of the Islamic

49:44

revolution when Iran toppled the Sha a

49:48

new Islamic Republic of Iran was born

49:51

this swiftly ended the friendship

49:52

between the two states the Ayatollah or

49:55

the Supreme leaders took charge of Iran

49:58

and all of them considered Israel to be

50:00

Enemy Number One also the illegal

50:02

occupiers of

50:04

Jerusalem after the 1979 Revolution tan

50:08

cut all ties with Israel citizens could

50:11

no longer travel there flight routs were

50:13

cancelled the Israeli Embassy in tan was

50:16

transformed into the Palestinian Embassy

50:18

in turn Israel refused to recognize the

50:21

new Islamic Republic and this was only

50:24

the beginning over the decades the two

50:27

Nations have sought to grow their

50:28

influence across the region as their

50:30

Ambitions clashed their enemity

50:35

grew now Iran supports groups that view

50:37

Israel as a major enemy these armed

50:40

groups and militias are spread across

50:42

Lebanon Syria Iraq and Yemen the most

50:45

important among them is Hezbollah which

50:47

is backed by Iran's Elite Islamic

50:49

revolutionary guard core Israel has

50:52

returned the favor so to speak by

50:54

backing groups that oppose Iran

50:57

tan designates many of these as

50:59

terrorist

51:01

organizations like the mujahidin a

51:04

Europe based organization and Kurdish

51:06

armed groups in Iraqi

51:08

Kurdistan the two Nations have fought

51:10

proxy wars for decades now they have

51:12

also carried out a long series of

51:14

attacks on each other this Shadow War

51:16

has gone on both within and outside

51:18

their soils for instance Israel has

51:21

vowed to never let Iran develop a

51:23

nuclear bomb tahan's nuclear program has

51:26

been a sight of a number of attacks

51:28

Israel has never accepted responsibility

51:30

for these strikes meanwhile Iran has

51:33

also targeted several Israeli interests

51:36

for instance in 2012 a series of attacks

51:39

were launched against Israeli Targets in

51:41

Georgia India and Thailand Israel

51:43

accused tahan but Iran denied the

51:46

charges to no one's surprise then again

51:49

in 2021 an Israeli owned vehicle carrier

51:52

was hit by an explosion it was sailing

51:54

off the coast of Oman tan was blamed

51:57

again but it denied any involvement Iran

52:00

and Israel went from allies to sworn

52:02

enemies and now for the first time

52:05

almost after half a century of being

52:07

fors Iran has directly attacked Israel

52:10

the road to reconciliation has never

52:12

seemed

52:14

father and with that it is a wrap on the

52:16

special edition of Vantage we'll keep

52:18

tracking all the updates from Israel

52:20

Iran and around the world so make sure

52:21

you keep tracking first post keep

52:23

watching we'll see you tomorrow

52:29

[Music]

53:44

Iran has launched a direct attack from

53:48

Iranian soil towards the state of Israel

54:25

[Music]

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العلامات ذات الصلة
Middle EastGlobal PoliticsIran-Israel ConflictMilitary AnalysisGeopolitical TensionsUN ReactionsEconomic ImpactRegional StabilityDiplomatic RelationsSecurity Strategies
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