Israel vs Iran: A Clash of Military Capabilities | Vantage with Palki Sharma
Summary
TLDRThe video script for a special edition of 'Vantage' with Py Sharma covers the escalating tensions and recent military exchanges between Israel and Iran, highlighting an unprecedented direct attack by Iran on Israeli territory. The episode delves into the potential ramifications of this conflict on global politics, regional alliances, and economic stability, examining the responses from global leaders, the strategic military capacities of both nations, and the broader implications for countries like India and the United States. It raises critical questions about the future steps these nations might take and the possible outcomes of this heightened conflict.
Takeaways
- 🌍 Israel and Iran are historical enemies with a complex, evolving conflict involving proxy wars and direct confrontations.
- 🚀 Recent tensions escalated as Iran launched a direct attack on Israeli territory with missiles and drones, marking a significant escalation.
- 🛡️ Israel's advanced defense systems, including the Iron Dome, successfully intercepted the majority of these incoming projectiles.
- 📞 Global reactions are mixed, with Western nations like the USA and UK condemning Iran's actions and emphasizing support for Israel.
- 🔍 The conflict has wider regional implications, potentially affecting nations like Lebanon, Syria, and the broader Middle East.
- ⚖️ Political implications are significant for leaders in both countries, influencing local support and international diplomatic relations.
- 📉 The conflict could potentially disrupt global oil markets, highlighting the broader economic implications of Middle Eastern tensions.
- 🌐 International diplomacy, including actions by the UN and G7, plays a crucial role in managing and potentially resolving the crisis.
- 🔮 The outcome of this conflict could pivot on key decisions by political leaders, particularly Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Iran's leadership.
- 🕊️ Calls for deescalation are widespread, with many nations urging a return to diplomacy to avoid further escalation and war.
Q & A
What triggered the recent escalation between Israel and Iran as mentioned in the script?
-The recent escalation between Israel and Iran was triggered by an Israeli strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of top Iranian commanders. In response, Iran launched a significant missile and drone attack against Israeli territory.
How did Iran's response manifest, and what was its impact according to the script?
-Iran responded by launching around 300 missiles and drones towards Israel. Although this caused minimal physical damage and the Israeli defense systems intercepted most of these, the attack was symbolic and conveyed Iran's capacity and willingness to retaliate against direct assaults.
What did the script suggest about the nature of Iran's attack and its strategic goals?
-The script suggested that Iran's attack was calculated to be 'controlled and non-escalatory.' It aimed to make a strong statement without causing significant damage or escalating the conflict further, which aligns with their strategy of responding without triggering a full-scale war.
According to the script, what are the potential consequences of further military actions by Israel?
-Further military actions by Israel could lead to a cycle of retaliation between the two nations, potentially resulting in a wider regional conflict. Such escalation could disrupt global oil supplies and increase tensions across the Middle East, involving various regional players and impacting global security and economy.
What role do external players like the United States and European countries play in this conflict, based on the script?
-External players such as the United States and European countries are supporting Israel by condemning the attacks and providing strategic military support. However, they are also urging restraint and pushing for diplomatic resolutions to prevent further escalation of the conflict.
How is India impacted by and responding to the Israel-Iran conflict as described in the script?
-India is significantly impacted as it has strong ties with both Israel and Iran. The script mentions India's call for de-escalation and restraint from both sides, reflecting its complex position of balancing strategic and economic interests with both nations without taking sides explicitly.
What historical context is provided about the Iran-Israel relationship in the script?
-The script explains that Iran and Israel were once close allies up until the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, which shifted the regime's stance to view Israel as an adversary. This marked the beginning of deteriorating relations and subsequent decades of proxy conflicts and direct tensions.
What does the script say about the international community's reaction to the conflict?
-The international community, including major powers and regional actors, has expressed concern over the escalation and is calling for restraint and a return to diplomacy. Many nations are worried about the potential destabilizing effects of a prolonged conflict in the region.
According to the script, what are some potential military strategies that Israel might employ in response to the Iranian attacks?
-The script outlines potential strategies including a proportional response targeting Iranian proxies instead of Iran directly, a full-scale retaliation against Iran, or opting for restraint to prevent escalation. Each strategy carries different risks and potential consequences.
What does the script reveal about public sentiment in Iran following the attacks?
-Public sentiment in Iran is described as highly supportive of the attacks, with celebrations and positive reactions to the government's decision to retaliate against Israel. This reflects a strong nationalistic response favoring Iran's assertive military actions.
Outlines
🌍 Middle Eastern Tensions Escalate
The video script begins with a dramatic introduction to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, setting the stage for a detailed discussion on their historical enmity and recent military engagements. The segment highlights a recent attack where Iran fired 300 missiles and drones at Israel, which resulted in minimal damage but served as a significant political statement. The script questions the potential outcomes of this conflict, including possible escalation into larger war, while also touching on regional impacts and the global implications such as oil prices and economic effects.
🛡️ Analysis of Military Responses and Tactical Defenses
This section delves into the military tactics employed during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, emphasizing the effectiveness of Israel's air defense systems, which intercepted the majority of the attacks with minimal casualties. It discusses the strategic nature of Iran's attack, suggesting it was more about sending a political message than causing actual damage. International reactions are explored, with global leaders calling for restraint and de-escalation, reflecting widespread concern about the potential for this conflict to escalate further.
🌐 Global Diplomacy and Strategic Calculations
The narrative shifts to the international diplomatic efforts in response to the Iran-Israel conflict, highlighting the roles of Russia, China, and India in advocating for restraint and diplomacy. It details a UN Security Council meeting and the G7's involvement, suggesting these actions aim to prevent further escalation. The script also explores behind-the-scenes communications between Iran and the US, indicating a controlled Iranian response to Israeli provocations and the strategic implications of these communications.
🔍 Netanyahu's Strategic Dilemma and Political Motivations
This section focuses on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political and military options in response to the Iranian attack. It critically examines his potential motivations, including political survival and the desire to maintain a strong defense posture. The script analyzes three possible Israeli responses: reciprocal military action, targeting Iranian proxies, or a direct strike on Iran, each with different risks and implications for regional stability.
🏛️ Iran's Leadership and Domestic Response
Exploring the perspective of Iran, this part discusses Ayatollah Khamenei's role in sanctioning the attacks on Israel, framed as a response to Israeli aggression. It presents the domestic reception in Iran as overwhelmingly positive, portraying the attack as a successful retaliation, despite international opinions to the contrary. The script also touches on Iran's internal challenges, such as economic struggles and public unrest, which influence its foreign policy decisions.
🇺🇸 Biden's Political Challenges and U.S. Diplomacy
The focus here is on U.S. President Joe Biden's response to the situation, caught between supporting Israel and preventing a wider conflict. It discusses the domestic political implications for Biden, including criticism from former President Donald Trump who attributes the conflict to Biden's perceived weakness. The script explores the delicate balance Biden must maintain in supporting Israel while encouraging de-escalation, reflecting broader U.S. strategic interests in the region.
⚔️ Comparative Military Strengths and Potential Conflict Outcomes
This segment provides a detailed comparison of the military capabilities of Iran and Israel, analyzing their respective strengths and weaknesses. It discusses the possible outcomes of a full-scale conflict, considering factors like manpower, technological advantages, and strategic allies. The script posits that while Iran has numerical superiority, Israel's technological edge and strong international support, particularly from the U.S., make it a formidable opponent.
🌏 India's Delicate Position and Regional Implications
India's complex position in the Iran-Israel conflict is outlined, highlighting its strong ties to both nations and the challenging diplomatic landscape it navigates. The script examines India's strategic interests, including economic relations and geopolitical alliances, and discusses the potential consequences of the conflict for India, especially concerning its energy needs and the safety of its citizens in the region.
🔥 Historical Context and Long-term Rivalries
The script concludes by tracing the historical roots of the Iran-Israel rivalry, from their close relations before Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution to their current status as arch-enemies. It discusses how geopolitical shifts and mutual support for opposing factions in regional conflicts have fueled decades of animosity. The final note calls for an understanding of these historical dynamics to grasp the complexities of their ongoing conflict.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Vantage
💡Iran-Israel conflict
💡Proxy war
💡Iron Dome
💡De-escalation
💡Ayatollah
💡Benjamin Netanyahu
💡Economic impact
💡Ironclad support
💡Regional players
Highlights
Iran directly strikes Israeli territory for the first time, a significant escalation in the conflict.
Israel's air defense systems, including Iron Dome and Aros, successfully intercept the majority of Iranian projectiles.
Iran's attack, while causing minimal physical damage, sends a strong political message of retaliation.
The international community expresses concern, with global powers urging restraint and de-escalation.
Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure regarding Israel's response, balancing military action with international diplomatic expectations.
President Joe Biden's administration signals a desire for de-escalation, emphasizing defense rather than offensive support.
Iran's strategy includes using proxies and signaling controlled responses to avoid full-scale war.
The attack raises questions about the future stability of the region and the potential for a broader conflict.
The involvement of regional players like Saudi Arabia, who calls for UN-led de-escalation efforts.
The potential economic impact of the conflict on global oil prices and regional trade.
India's delicate position, balancing its relations with both Iran and Israel amid the escalating conflict.
The historical context of Iran and Israel's relationship, from close allies to bitter enemies after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The strategic military capabilities of both Iran and Israel, highlighting their respective strengths and weaknesses.
The role of public opinion in Iran, with state media portraying the attack as a significant blow to Israel.
The broader implications for US foreign policy in the region, particularly in relation to maintaining alliances and responding to aggression.
Transcripts
[Music]
hello namaskar this is first post and
you're watching a special edition of
vantage with me py Sharma
[Music]
Israel and Iran are s enemies they
promised to wipe each other off the face
of the the Earth and this is not an
exaggeration 2 weeks ago Israel struck
the Iranian Consulate in Damascus Syria
and now Iran has struck back it rained
some 300 missiles and drones on Israel
the damage was minimal but the message
was clear Iran won't take it lying down
and even though the word unprecedented
is abused in the news media a lot this
this one was truly unprecedented
Iran has never in the past directly
struck Israeli territory I guess the
million dollar question then is what
happens next will it blow into a bigger
war or will cooler heads prevail what
are netanyahu's options why did Iran's
Ayatollah have to strike who's military
force is superior can Joe Biden still
stay away from war why is this conflict
a headache for India how will it impact
you oil prices flights economy we'll
cover it all tonight also look at the
regional players who stands where
and why are Iran and Israel enemies in
the first place all this is more coming
up in the special edition of Vantage the
headlines
[Music]
first in India Prime Minister Modi
releases the bjp's manifesto ahead of
Elections the document titled prime
minister modi's guarantee focuses on
women the youth the poor and the farmers
the manifesto promises to implement the
uniform civil code and the citizenship
Amendment act it also guarantees that
India will soon be the third largest
economy
[Music]
Australian police identify the Sydney
Mall attacker the asent was a
40-year-old man suffering from mental
illness on Saturday he went on a
stabbing Rampage at a shopping center
killing six people and injuring many
others he was shot dead by a police
officer at the
sea Venezuela outraged over a new oil
lease of Guyana karakas rejects the
concession that gyana has given the US
oil firm Exon Mobile in 2015 oil was
discovered in these disputed Waters
since then the long-standing dispute
between Venezuela and Guyana has only
intensified Solomon Islands prepares for
polls under China Shadow the archipelago
is caught in a tussle between China and
the West its current prime minister has
vowed to strengthen bonds with Beijing
if reelected voting will take place on
the 17th of
April and at least 19 people killed in
the landslide in central Indonesia
several others are missing torrential
rains triggered this landslide slide in
the last few months the region has been
hit by several
landslides a number of Iranian missiles
fell inside Israeli territory causing
minor damage
[Music]
it's one of the worst feelings ever
knowing something will happen but not
knowing when Israel's experienced that
feeling for most of last week the
Iranian military was poised to strike
them but no one knew when when late last
night it happened hundreds of
projectiles were fired towards Israel
we're talking about a cocktail of
weapons Israel counted more than 300 of
them 170 drones 30 cruise missiles and
110 ballistic missiles they were fired
from different locations from Iran from
Syria from Iraq and from Yemen but
Israel was ready for it you see this was
a widely expected attack a tit fortat
response last week Israel had struck
Iran's Embassy in Syria they ended up
killing top Iranian commanders so Iran
was always going to respond which is why
Israel and its allies were ready
they say around 99% of the projectiles
were shot down some over the Iraqi and
Syrian airspace the rest over Israel it
filled the night sky with explosions
take a look
[Music]
[Applause]
[Music]
[Music]
[Applause]
[Music]
now 300 is a big number but these drones
and missiles caused very little damage
around 12 people were injured and one
girl was killed plus a military base in
southern Israel was slightly damaged I
guess the obvious question is how it was
a joint effort by Israel's allies
especially the US and the UK both
countries had moved in important assets
to the region the US and the UK so when
Iran attacked they were ready fighter
jets took off from undisclosed bases in
the region they shot down most of the
drones before they reached the target
even Jordan took down a few projectiles
of course some did make it to Israel but
those were shot down by the air defense
system and there are many layers to it
but this time two of them were key the
Aros system which shoots down long range
missiles and the Iron Dome which shoots
down short range
Rockets both use the same concept track
a projectile fire ammunition at it and
blow it up in the sky it's costly but
clearly effective but good defense was
not the only reason for the limited
damage Iran's attack was half-hearted
they wanted to create a spectacle they
wanted to appease their domestic
audience but damage perhaps was not
their goal Iran's foreign minister
Minister has admitted this he says thean
had informed the us about the nature of
its
attacks we announced to the White House
in a message this morning that our
operations will be limited and minimal
with the aim of legitimate defense and
Punishment of the Israeli
regime which brings us to the reactions
the world is understandably worried
because damage or not this attack is
unprecedented in the past Iran has used
proxies to strike Israel like hisbah and
Hamas they have never used their own
military this this is the first direct
Iranian attack on Israel which makes it
very significant that was also the that
was also in fact reflected in the ground
reactions Iranians were over the moon
they took out bike rallies and marches
in thran and they called it a proud and
happy
[Music]
moment we hope this attack continues to
the point that Israel is
[Applause]
destroyed we will never allow anyone to
violate Iranian territory any enemy
contemplating aggression against Iran
will meet the same fate as
[Applause]
Israel so celebrations in Iran over in
Israel things were more
subdued some said they were used to the
rocket and missile barrage others were
more wary
actually all heard about the attack of
the of Iran but uh we're not afraid
because we went to to celebrate birthday
of our one of our friends and we already
got used to being attacked for the last
6
[Music]
months the situation is really
frightening because we're afraid of what
happens and all of uh bombing and
aircraft that are
coming so what next Iran says the
operation is over and they clearly mean
it if they wanted escalation this attack
would have looked very different plus
life is slowly returning to normal last
night most countries in the region had
shut their airspace but now they're back
up and
running even Israel has reopened its
airspace having said that the danger has
not passed far from it a lot depends on
Benin Netanyahu his War cabinet has been
asked to decide on a response the
question is what will they choose more
escalation or a truce Israel's own
allies do not want an escalation they
have condemned Iran's missile attack but
they may not support retaliation look at
the reaction so far Joe Biden had a
phone call with Netanyahu he called
Iran's attack Brazen he also promised
Ironclad support for Israel UK prime
minister Rishi sonak released a similar
statement he called Iran's attack re
less he also accused Teran of sowing
chaos in the region so did German
Chancellor Olaf Schulz he said the
attack was unjustifiable and
irresponsible so the West is firmly
behind
Israel maybe not on escalating the
conflict but definitely on condemning
Iran if this attack had been successful
The Fallout for regional stability would
be hard to overstate and we stand by the
security of Israel and The Wider region
which is of course important for us
security here at home
too this is an unjustifiable attack this
is a serious escalation of the situation
and it is in no way acceptable
understandable or tolerable fortunately
the Israeli Air Defense Forces largely
succeeded in fending off this attack
supported by the USA and partners also
in the Arab
world now we come to the other Camp
Russia and China two countries that have
closed relations with Iran Russia has
expressed concern over the attack they
have advised restraint but the statement
also mentions Israel strike on the
Iranian consulate so a bit of a
balancing act there same with China they
too have called for restraint but
Beijing says it is a spillover of the
Gaza conflict so China is saying fix
Gaza first the rest will fall in place
and what about India New Delhi has
called for deescalation and restraint it
has advised a return to diplomacy much
like Arab Nations Saudi Arabia wants the
UN security to take the lead it has
asked Israel and Iran to avoid
war but will they listen the next few
hours will be very important Israel has
requested a meeting of the United
Nations security Council it will be
convening in a few hours from now
meanwhile Biden has gathered the G7
leaders if they together put pressure on
Benjamin Netanyahu they can prevent an
escalation perhaps of course A minor
Fallout is still
expected Israel has already struck
Eastern Lebanon they're going out after
Iran's proxy the hisbah but that
conflict has not boiled over yet whether
it does or not depends on Israel's next
move now before we discuss what happens
next first let's tell you how this
attack took shape what happened behind
the scenes what were Iran's calculations
who did they speak to and what kind of
support did they
have now this enmity is a very very old
story but the latest episode began
exactly 2 weeks ago when the Israelis
struck the Iranian Consulate in
Damascus Iran immediately vowed to take
revenge this failure of the Israeli
regime in Gaza will definitely continue
as well as these desperate efforts like
what they did in Syria of course they
will be slapped for this
action now the question was was what
would be the scale of the attack or in
the ayatollah's words how hard would the
slap be Iran had a lot to consider the
last thing they can afford right now is
a direct war with Israel at the same
time they couldn't have done nothing and
we'll tell you why in a bit so on camera
Iranian officials started talking tough
and behind the scenes they began gaming
the scenarios and their assessment was
this Netanyahu was trying to pull them
into a wider regional conflict so they
reached out to other to other Regional
players
like Oman Iran contacted Oman and asked
them to deliver some messages to the us
and this is not a first Oman has often
acted as a go between for the Iranians
and the Americans so last Sunday the
Iranian foreign minister traveled to
Oman and he apparently delivered two
clear messages number one Iran will
respond to Israel's attack in a quote
unquote controlled and non- escalatory
way and number two Iran will deploy its
proxies for the mission
and that's exactly what they did the
missiles and drones were launched from
at least four different countries like
we told you Iran Iraq Syria and Yemen so
in a way the US had prior warning from
Iran and this communication was supposed
to be a
secret but the story got out the White
House faced questions it was asked if
the Iranians had made contact and
Biden's press secretary did not deny it
has Iran been in touch via
intermediaries with Washington to
indicate that when it responds to
Israel's attack on on its Embassy on its
Syrian Embassy that it will not escalate
we've been also very clear I'm not going
to get into public back and forth we
warn Iran not to use uh this attack as a
pretext to escalate further in the
region or attack us facilities or person
Personnel I'm going to be super mindful
not to to speak beyond that from here or
elaborate
further so neither confirmation nor
denial when you connect the dots this is
what you get the inputs from tan could
be shaping Washington's response
yesterday just hours before the Iranian
strikes Joe Biden spoke with Benin
Netanyahu the US president promis to
help Israel defend itself but if Israel
chooses to retaliate the Americans won't
support that operation that's what Biden
is said to have told Netanyahu so while
he's calling the support to Israel
Ironclad he also wants to make it
conditional Washington also expects
Israeli officials to inform them before
launching any
operation again the question is will nth
pay heed to this or will he launch a
Counterattack now I know Grand
statements never help but this one is
pretty spot-on the immediate future of
West Asia depends on one man Benjamin
Netanyahu the prime minister of Israel
this situation is tailor made for him
it's a chance to take the focus away
from Gaza it's also a chance to fulfill
his career-long go goal to strike deep
inside Iran to take out their strategic
assets including their nuclear sites
just one problem though his allies are
not on board both the US and the UK have
urged deescalation like I said Biden has
reportedly made his stand clear to
nanahu if you attack Iran we will not
help but where does that leave the prime
minister of Israel what options does he
have in public Netanyahu is defiant he
says Israel is ready for all scenarios
both defensive and offensive
citizens of Israel in recent years and
especially in recent weeks Israel has
been preparing for a direct attack by
Iran our defensive systems are deployed
we are ready for any scenario both
defensively and offensively the state of
Israel is strong the IDF is strong the
public is
strong so he's not ruled out retaliation
and you can see why netanyahu's
popularity has hit rock bottom the only
only thing keeping him in office is the
Gaza War but he's running out of places
to attack Israel has reached the
southernmost point of Gaza so he's got
to wind up the War sooner or later which
means he may have to step down and in
that context a conflict with Iran would
help him it would extend his time in
office but the trade-off would be huge
Israel's last attack was an was on
Iranian consulate so Tan's response was
lukewarm borderline performative but
what if Israel strikes Iranian cities
and Military
targets chances are the response won't
be
Luka if the Zionist regime takes any
action against the Islamic Republic
whether on our soil or in places
belonging to us in Syria or elsewhere
our next operation will be much larger
so what options does Netanyahu have we
can think of three of them the first is
to call it
Square Israel's First Strike killed top
Iranian commanders compared to that Iran
did not cause much damage so Netanyahu
can leave it at that a score of 1-1 the
second option is to Target Iranian
proxies now we've already seen attacks
on the hisbah in in Lebanon Israel can
keep doing that Iran has many assets and
Military sites in the region like in
Syria in Iraq and Yemen Israel could
choose to Target them instead it's
relatively low risk and finally option
number three hit back inside Iran this
would likely lead to a cycle of
reprisals in the worst case even War so
will benan Netanyahu risk it logic says
he won't but in the last 6
months we've not seen a lot of display
of that logic so we've also seen a lot
of confusing decisions some of which
make no strategic sense so a lot depends
on netanyahu's allies first of all how
much pressure can the West put on him
will they threaten to cut off military
aid same with Israel's neighbors a wider
War would affect all of them it would
disrupt oil trade via the straight of
hormos and Iran has always threatened to
close it and this would give them the
perfect excuse to do it around 30% 30
30% of global oil trade passes via this
route if Iran shuts it West Asia will
suffer that's enough reason for them to
urge deescalation
I guess it's all about appetite and
ambition Netanyahu has enough reasons to
claim a success he took out top Iranian
commanders he repelled a massive Iranian
attack plus he red rallied his Western
allies for most people that would be a
win but nanahu does not think like that
he's not just focused on Israel's
strategic goals he's also focused on his
political career which is why this is a
dangerous moment Israel's war cabinet is
meeting to discuss the way for forward
there are three members in this cabinet
one of them is Benny Gans he's a former
Defense Minister also a rival of
Netanyahu Gans says Israel will respond
at the right
time in the face of the Iranian threat
we will build a regional Coalition and
exact the price from Iran in the fashion
and timing that is right for us and most
importantly faced with the desire of our
enemies to harm us we will continue to
unite and become stronger
chances are there will be some sort of
response the only question is how far
will it
go now let's look at the other side and
that is Iran and their leader ayat Ali K
is Iran's Grand Ayatollah that's a
religious title it makes him the
ultimate Authority in Theocratic Iran
he's the country's top leader 84 years
old will be 85 this week he's been in
power since 1989 making him one of the
longest serving leaders in West Asia he
holds constitutional authority over the
Judiciary the Army the Revolutionary
guard and the state media so the buck
stops with this man and he is definitely
the one who sanctioned the attack on
Israel he cleared it last week he had
promised that Israel would be quote
unquote slapped and now he claims to
have delivered to the great joy of many
in Iran take a look at this
[Applause]
[Applause]
we were extremely happy with this action
of the irgc and in fact we felt better
after a long time this was a help and
companionship with the oppressed people
of Gaza and the West
Bank this sadness and anger remained in
the hearts of all of us and we were
always waiting for this Revenge to be
carried out and for the Israelis to be
punished for their brutality and we
couldn't believe it when the news came
last
night that Banner with the missile you
see it is up in thran's Palestine Square
it has a message in both Farsi and
Hebrew in Farsi or Persian it says the
next lap will be harder in Hebrew it
says your next mistake will be the end
of your
state dual messaging and that's not a
coincidence it explains why the people
of Iran are Overjoyed even though
Israel seems relatively
unharmed Israel says the so-called slap
was ineffective they say 99% of Iran's
missiles and drones were shot down but
that's not what the people in Iran are
hearing
the statement announced the launch of
missiles and drones to Targets in
occupied lands that successfully hit the
targets he's saying they successfully
hit the targets the irgc that's Iran's
Islamic revolutionary guard core issued
a statement they like a parallel
military body their job is to defend
Iran from external and internal threats
and they report to the Ayatollah now
this body the irgc says it successfully
hit Targets in Israel and that's what
the Iranian State media is now reporting
so the people in Iran are being told
that quote unquote heavy blows have been
dealt to the Israelis especially the air
base in the Nev desert the nevatim air
base the base that was used to launch
the air strikes on the Iranian Consulate
in Syria and Israel admits that some
missiles did hit this base but they say
it was minor infrastructure damage in
fact the Israelis even released this
footage later purportedly showing the
base still in use
but of course the people in Iran do not
see any of this they saw the missiles
going towards Israel their news channels
are apparently quoting the special
forces the irgc saying that heavy blows
were dealt to Israel and so the people
in Iran think that aah K has given a
resounding response to the
Israelis and they were celebrating
[Music]
[Music]
brings us to K's game plan he could not
afford to look weak a few years back the
Americans killed kasim suani last week
the Israelis killed Iranian generals the
regime in tan was already on the back
foot domestically the economy is in a
shambles their currency the real has H
an alltime low inflation is touching 50%
we've seen public protests in the last
few years in 2022 there was the anti-h
hijab protest where the people fought
back against the Iranian regime and it
was only quelled by Brute Force given
this backdrop and now the attack on
their Consulate in Syria K could not
afford to look
weak he could not AFF for the people of
Iran or for the Iranian proxies outside
to think that the regime cannot stand up
to Israel so in some ways last night's
attack was K's only option of course
that does not make it right and it will
have its own set of consequences K may
have stamped out some domestic Embers of
resentment but he may have just started
a fire around the
world and speaking of this fire let's
turn to the US where president Jo Biden
is in a
fix here's how Washington would see this
strike Iran America's biggest problem in
West Asia has openly attacked America's
closest friend in the
region the Iran has crossed a red line
it never dared to before and it happened
under Biden's
watch he should be sweating at the very
thought of having to explain this when
Biden heard about the attack he rushed
back to the White House he had a call
with Netanyahu and then issued a
statement and the last two lines of the
statement are the ones to note Biden
said his support for Israel was
Ironclad and that the United States will
stand with the people of Israel and
support their defense against these
threats from Iran it sounds like the
usual token statement but maybe the word
defense should be looked at closely
because apparently that's as far as
Biden is willing to go during the he
reportedly said that the Iranian attack
had been foiled and that Netanyahu
should quote unquote take the
win this doesn't mean Biden has washed
his hands off the matter he is planning
a diplomatic offensive along with the G7
and the US will of course back Israel at
the United Nations security Council meet
that has been called today but that
doesn't really give the same impact does
it Iran fired missiles Biden will wag
his finger and fire
sanctions it doesn't make him look look
too tough even if it may be the wiser
course of action to prevent an allout
war in West Asia but this defensive
strategy leaves Biden open to political
attacks at home which by the way have
already begun listen to this before
going any further I want to say God
Bless the people of Israel they're under
attack right now that's that's because
we show great weakness this would not
happen the weakness that we've shown
it's unbelievable and it would not
happened if we were in office you know
that they know that everybody knows
that Trump has made his move he has
blamed the attack on Biden's weakness
and not just last night's attack Trump
has blamed everything else on Joe Biden
too it wasn't only Putin it was Putin
and plenty of other things that Biden
got wrong with Putin Ukraine would have
never happened Israel attack both
October 7th and today would have never
happened it's impossible to accurately
predict what could have happened but
Trump doesn't need to be accurate he
just needs to undermine the people's
confidence in Biden which will probably
be easy after this latest mess it leaves
Biden in an unenviable position having
to decide what
next as much as Biden would like to stay
on the defense it's not just his call to
make Netanyahu has been attacked he of
all people will want to respond he has a
tough guy reputation to uphold and he
might throw Biden under the bus to do it
a US senator Tim Kain says Biden is wary
of Netanyahu and Biden apparently knows
that he was quote unquote played by the
Israeli PM this was during the early
months of the Gaza War which explains
his change in stance remember Biden flew
down to Israel when the October 7th
attack took place he hugged Netanyahu as
soon as he landed and he said the US
would always be by Israel's
side but that equation has changed in
recent weeks the civilian death toll was
mounting the and Israel was threatening
to attack Rafa in Gaza the last City in
Gaza that is that has been left standing
where hundreds of thousands of
Palestinians are taking Refuge so Biden
issued a
threat the US Aid to
Israel would be conditional if Netanyahu
did not do more to protect civilians it
looked like Biden had run out of
patience the shift also suited his
politics with the American Muslim V
voters so he seemed ready to reign in
Ben
nanahu but a lot has changed now what
happens next what happens if Netanyahu
attacks Iran it will begin a new cycle
of violence and eye for an eye scenario
until the entirety of West Asia is on
fire will Joe Biden allow Israel to burn
down probably not Israel is America's
closest Ally Biden will not be able to
sit back and watch he either abandons
Israel or joins it and whatever comes
next the middle ground it seems is gone
and this has put Biden in a terrible
position he doesn't really have the
freedom to choose his next
move now let's look at the worst case
scenario because that's what you do in
situations like this look at all
possibilities hoping it doesn't come to
the worst what would a full-blown war
between Iran and Israel look like how do
they compare
militarily their capabilities are very
different Israel is one of west Asia's
most powerful militaries and Iran is one
of the largest whose force is superior
what kind of fire power do they have and
who has a better shot at winning our
next report tells
[Music]
you the drum beats of War are sounding
in West Asia yet again Israel and Iran
are in the middle of an escalating
crisis at the heart of it lies a crucial
question if the worst case scenario were
to unfold who will come out on top
Israel versus Iran whose military might
has the upper
hand on the surface the numbers favor
Iran Iran has a huge population at least
in comparison to Israel Iran is home to
about 89 million people as compared to
Israel's population of about 10 million
so on paper it's Advantage Iran
particularly when it comes to the size
of its
military the Iranian Armed Forces are
among the largest in West Asia with at
least 580,000 active duty personnel and
200,000 trained Reserve Personnel how
big is Israel's military it has about
170,000 active personnel and 465,000
reservists so Iran's active Personnel is
more than Thrice that of Israel's it
also has a larger Navy more tanks and
armored vehicles and greater access to
fuel so far Iran seems to have the upper
hand but there is a catch raw data alone
doesn't tell you the whole story
quantitative factors play a role yes but
so do qualitative ones like training and
advancement of technology and the nation
that comes out on top here is the one
with more money which is
Israel Iran has a GDP of $413 billion
while Israel's GDP stands at $539
billion this affects their respective
military budgets reportedly Iran's is at
$10 billion whereas Israel has a
military budget of $24.4 billion that's
almost 2.5 times
higher but the biggest advantage that
Israel has is that its military is
backed by the United States America
provides Israel with a $3.8 billion
annual military assistance this has
allowed Israel to have more advanced
Weaponry with Superior Force Readiness
making it one of west Asia's most
powerful militaries
let's see how this plays out on land
Water and Air in terms of tank force
like the zulfiker series and the karar
MPT Iran builds its own tanks usually
they are based on outdated designs then
there are t-72s t-54s and t-55s which
are Iranian copies and considered
inferior to the Israeli defense tanks
like the marava Mark 4 which is one of
the best armored tanks in the
game now let's look at the Navy Iran's
Navy is larger than Israel's but not as
robust Israel's Navy has access to
American and European suppliers and
their Advanced missiles and vessels now
when it comes to air power contrary to
the numbers Trend Israel's force is
larger than Iran's its Arsenal includes
612 aircraft to Iran's
551 its primary fighting force consists
of at least 66 f-15s 175 F16
and 27 F35 stealth Fighters it's also
regarded as one of the best in the world
has about 63 f4s and 26
f14s in comparison Iran's air Arsenal is
believed to be aging rapidly so Israel
has superior quality which is why Iran
is using another tactic on the
battlefield deploying weapons in large
quantities Iran has a substantial
inventory of ballistic and cruise
missiles they are capable of striking
targets about 2,000 km away this puts
Israel well within its range and during
the weekends attack tan launched dozens
of explosive Laden drones these are
Iran's
Pride they are unmanned aerial Vehicles
believed to be Shah heads meaning
witness in Farsi these are long range
drones which have been called the AK-47s
of tan because they are cheap
mass-produced and deadly
plus Iran is not without allies one of
its most important is the Lebanese
militia Hezbollah according to Israeli
intelligence hezbollah's Arsenal
contains more than 70,000 rockets and
missiles including long range and
precision guided missiles but then again
conventional forces aren't the only ones
that can be used on a battlefield Israel
is believed to possess the ability to
launch nuclear strikes from Land Air and
sea Israel has never openly confirmed or
denied its possession of new nuclear
weapons so Iran has the numbers Israel
has the technology while you can't
predict a clear winner if this conflict
escalates any further there's no doubt
over who will be the Biggest Loser the
already rest of region and its millions
of
people and where does India feature in
this conflict in the middle again both
Israel and Iran are very important
partners for India and has all kinds of
Investments there both political and
economic so picking a side is virtually
impossible and New Delhi statement
reflects this let me quote what the
statement from India says we are
seriously concerned at the escalation of
hostilities between Israel and Iran we
call for immediate deescalation exercise
of restraint stepping back from violence
and return to the path of
diplomacy that's what the Indian
statement says no blame game no
criticism no taking sides India is
basically asking both countries to
deescalate and we'll get to the
Strategic considerations in a bit but
first India has a more immedate concern
on Saturday Iran captured a ship near
the straight of hormos it's called the
MSC Aries Reports say the ship is linked
to an Israeli businessman so Iran seized
it around 25 people are on board the
vessel 17 of them are Indian so getting
them released is a big priority Indian
officials have apparently reached
reached out to Iran they're trying to
get the sailors released which brings us
to the larger issue how will India
navigate this conflict if it's a short
one there isn't much to do but what if
Israel hits back what if things escalate
into a bigger conflict then India faces
some tough choices let's look at three
key factors trade relations political
relations and strategic relations you
start with trade the India Israel trade
is around $7.5 billion what about the
India Iran trade it's around $2.5
billion but there's a key difference
here Iran is sanctioned by Western
countries so India buys very little oil
from Iran before the sanctions trade was
much higher at about $13 billion in
2015 let's look at what this trade is
made up of Israel sells a lot of
military equipment to India in fact New
Delhi is Israel's top
buyer at the same time Iran is an oil
giant if the sanctions are lifted the
energy trade can flourish again so oil
and weapons two very important items
that India buys from these two
countries which brings us to the second
Factor political relations Prime
Minister Modi has invested a lot in his
relationship with Israel in fact he
deated it until then India could not
separate Israel and Palestine both
relations were interl but Modi decided
to separate
them in 2017 he went to Israel and since
then Israel has become a key partner of
India
with Iran it's been a different
trajectory there are cultural and
linguistic ties long-standing political
exchanges and even shared history there
have been some uncomfortable statements
and remarks especially on Kashmir but
the relationship has largely been
stable and that brings us to the final
Factor the Strategic relations India
sees Israel as a gateway to Europe last
year at the G20 Summit India announced a
new economic Corridor it would link
India to Europe via Israel plus both
countries are a part of a political
grouping called the
i2u2 India Israel the US and the UAE
hence
i2u2 it's also called the West Asian
Squad now with Iran India has other
shared interests for starters
Afghanistan both India and Iran support
the rights of Afghan minorities they
also oppose terror camps in Afghanistan
and like Israel India sees Iran as a
Gateway not to Europe but to Central
Asia New Delhi is building a trading
terminal in southeas at the Port of
chabahar it is India's first ever
overseas Port investment and how much is
it worth almost $ 85 million the plan is
to use chabahar to access Afghanistan
and Central
Asia this way India can s step Pakistan
so long story short both countries are
very important to India there's a lot of
money and strategic depth at stake which
is why taking sides won't be easy for
New Delhi if the fighting escalates
India will also have to think about its
citiz
there are 18,000 Indians living in
Israel also between 5,000 10,000 Indians
in Iran if you add the wi Gulf region a
lot more up to 9 million Indians live in
this region and don't forget the energy
trade around 4 40% of India's oil comes
from West Asia plus 70% of its gas so a
wider War would be a political and
economic nightmare for India hence New
Delhi is called for deescalation you've
seen a lot of of balancing acts from
India recently especially in Ukraine but
if this war drags on it could be India's
toughest challenge
yet in the last two years our world has
seen major Wars in 2022 it began with
the Russia Ukraine war in 2023 that's
last year Hamas terrorists attacked
Israel and Israel began a military
operation in Gaza which is yet to end
now Israel and Iran are engaged in a
direct Faceoff these conflicts impact
not just the countries involved but the
whole world they hurt the global economy
and disrupt Supply chains it's no wonder
that today's events have triggered more
uncertainty how will Iran's attack
impact oil prices will the global
markets be hit what about travel and
trade disruptions our next report tells
you all that you need to
know Iran's attack on Israel May reshape
the regional
Dynamics but in the immediate future
escalation of tensions in West Asia
threatens to [ __ ] an already fragile
global
economy oil the Region's most important
export remains vulnerable Iran's attack
could lead to a spike in prices already
the market for oil is volatile the price
of one barrel is inching closer to
$100 if there is a disruption in
supplies for a long period the daily
supply of crude could shrink by up to 8
million barrels a day how would the
shortage impact the the price the cost
of one barrel of oil could jump up to as
much as
$140 that's troubling news for countries
like India India Imports 85% of its
crude needs since late March prices have
jumped to a 4month high putting pressure
on the margins of Indian manufacturers
they cut fuel prices just last month if
the global prices don't stabilize soon
sustaining the lower prices may prove to
be challenging stock market investors
are wary too on Sunday West Asian
markets dipped after the Iranian attacks
stocks in Saudi Arabia Qatar and Israel
dipped the losses were relatively minor
American markets too are under pressure
on Friday the S&P 500 closed in the red
investors blamed geopolitical tensions
as the reason fears of a wider War could
make them more nervous cryptocurrency
also witnessed wild fluctuations when
Iran attacked Israel Bitcoin fell
sharply by 9% however the token
rebounded later in the day but if Israel
escalates bigger losses could be in
store in that case the aviation sector
May face the most significant
repercussions already a number of
Airlines have either called off flights
or rerouted their planes this includes
names like Quantas Airways Singapore
Airlines Lanza Kuwait Airways and swiss
International India's biggest airlines
are forced to take measures too flare
India vistara and indigo have suspended
their flights to tan they're also
avoiding the Iranian
airspace so if you have a flight
scheduled soon chances are it may take
longer for you to reach your destination
or Worse your flight may be canceled
altogether but it's not a crisis for
everyone investors in Gold are cheering
the global uncertainty has led to a
surge in Gold purchases the yellow metal
has gained by 133% already touching a
price record of $2,400 for an ounce
briefly however The Strife in West Asia
will give little Comfort to economists
already the IMF is worried about this
year's Outlook the scars of the
pandemics are still with us the global
output loss since 2020 is around $
33.3 trillion doar with the cost
disproportionately falling on the most
vulnerable countries and we see a
growing Divergence within and across
country groups since 20120 our world has
faced a slew of Crisis from the pandemic
to the many wars for the well-being of
the global economy it is critical that
cooler heads
prevail now let's zoom in a bit and take
a closer look at the region in direct
firing range
the other major players in West
Asia and I must say here that this
region has never been a beacon of
stability but last night's attack makes
it even more of a Tinder Box the Iranian
missiles and drones flew over multiple
countries before reaching Israel plus
Iran's proxies joined the attack we told
you about them like the hisbah it's a
group based in
Lebanon and Lebanon is major player
number one it has always been caught in
Israel's conflicts in fact Israel had
occupied the southern part of Lebanon
from 1985 to 2000 for almost 15 years so
if the Iran Israel fight escalates
Lebanon will likely get caught in the
war and they will side with
Iran next we have Syria the official
owners of the Golan Heights region
occupied by Israel and major player
number two Syria is another country
close to Iran their president is Bashar
alassad and he's still in power only
thanks to thean they helped him win a
civil war they're also armed Iran backed
groups in Syria like smaller versions of
the hisbah so if it comes to it Syria
will side with Iran then there's major
player number three Iraq and this is a
bit of a unique case on the one hand
Iraq has fought a major war against Iran
the first Gulf War in the 1980s but
since then the countries have come
together Iraq's prime minister is even
considered pro-iranian his path the to
the top job was helped by pro-iran
political parties Iran Iraq in fact also
has an Iraq many Iran iran-backed
militias on its soil they are in
Iraq so in the event of a war even if
Iraq stays out the government stays out
these militias will join Iran and
speaking of Iranian proxies there are
also some huthis in Yemen the group does
not just attack ships in the Red Sea
they're capable of reaching Israel as
well thanks to Iran made drones that The
huis Have and that makes Yemen major
player number four so we have Lebanon
Syria Iraq and Yemen directly or
indirectly these countries will be on
Iran's side but they aren't the only
ones with skin in the game you also have
the Arab states we'll start with with
Israel's neighbor Jordan major player
number five Jordan is home to US
military bases it is also home to
millions of Palestinians Jordan is
across the border from Israel so that is
where many Palestinian refugees took
shelter after their displacement during
the creation of Israel Millions still
live there and Jordan does not want any
more so it always tries to deescalate
tensions it is at the Forefront of peace
talks and it also helped shoot down
Iranian weapons last
night Jordan wants peace and calm to
return and an end to the influx of
refugees which brings us to major player
number six the leader of the Arab and
the Muslim world and that's Saudi Arabia
Iran and Saudi Arabia had been Rivals
for decades the two power centers in
West Asia but they buried the hatchet
last year they normalized ties Riyad
would not want to resume hostility so
expect the kingdom to try and calm
things down in fact look at Saudi
Arabia's statement it has called on all
parties to exercise utmost restraint and
spare the region and its people from the
dangers of War basically they're telling
everyone to calm down the other Arab
states are likely to follow riyad's lead
and considering their ties with the US
the Arab pressure may be key to keeping
the peace making Saudi Arabia the
biggest Regional player to watch right
now after Regional Players let's come
back to the protagonist Israel and
Iran why are they at War why have they
been fighting proxy battles for decades
how did they go from being close allies
to Arch Rivals that's right until the
1970s Iran and Israel were close allies
our next report tells you what changed
and
why the year was 1948 Israel was created
turkey became the first Muslim country
to recognize the Jewish state but can
you guess who was the second
surprisingly Iran which was home to the
biggest Jewish community in West Asia at
the time relations were anything but
hostile between Iran and Israel in fact
the two shared close ties they had
become allies under the last sha
Muhammad Resa pavi according to reports
Israel imported 40% of its oil from Iran
in exchange for agricultural produce
weapons and technology so how did the
two Nations go from being allies to
enemies the shift happened in
1979 this was the year of the Islamic
revolution when Iran toppled the Sha a
new Islamic Republic of Iran was born
this swiftly ended the friendship
between the two states the Ayatollah or
the Supreme leaders took charge of Iran
and all of them considered Israel to be
Enemy Number One also the illegal
occupiers of
Jerusalem after the 1979 Revolution tan
cut all ties with Israel citizens could
no longer travel there flight routs were
cancelled the Israeli Embassy in tan was
transformed into the Palestinian Embassy
in turn Israel refused to recognize the
new Islamic Republic and this was only
the beginning over the decades the two
Nations have sought to grow their
influence across the region as their
Ambitions clashed their enemity
grew now Iran supports groups that view
Israel as a major enemy these armed
groups and militias are spread across
Lebanon Syria Iraq and Yemen the most
important among them is Hezbollah which
is backed by Iran's Elite Islamic
revolutionary guard core Israel has
returned the favor so to speak by
backing groups that oppose Iran
tan designates many of these as
terrorist
organizations like the mujahidin a
Europe based organization and Kurdish
armed groups in Iraqi
Kurdistan the two Nations have fought
proxy wars for decades now they have
also carried out a long series of
attacks on each other this Shadow War
has gone on both within and outside
their soils for instance Israel has
vowed to never let Iran develop a
nuclear bomb tahan's nuclear program has
been a sight of a number of attacks
Israel has never accepted responsibility
for these strikes meanwhile Iran has
also targeted several Israeli interests
for instance in 2012 a series of attacks
were launched against Israeli Targets in
Georgia India and Thailand Israel
accused tahan but Iran denied the
charges to no one's surprise then again
in 2021 an Israeli owned vehicle carrier
was hit by an explosion it was sailing
off the coast of Oman tan was blamed
again but it denied any involvement Iran
and Israel went from allies to sworn
enemies and now for the first time
almost after half a century of being
fors Iran has directly attacked Israel
the road to reconciliation has never
seemed
father and with that it is a wrap on the
special edition of Vantage we'll keep
tracking all the updates from Israel
Iran and around the world so make sure
you keep tracking first post keep
watching we'll see you tomorrow
[Music]
Iran has launched a direct attack from
Iranian soil towards the state of Israel
[Music]
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