MUST-SEE: Obama aide's news will CRUSH Trump in November election

Interviews with Brian Tyler Cohen
7 Apr 202423:03

Summary

TLDRIn this transcript, the co-host of PS of America and host of Love it or Leave it, John Lovett, discusses the political landscape as the U.S. heads towards the November elections. The conversation focuses on the disapproval of Joe Biden among young people and progressives due to various issues, including the situation in Gaza. Lovett emphasizes the importance of framing the election as a choice between Biden and Trump, arguing that the latter would be worse on all fronts. He also highlights the Biden administration's achievements and the potential influence of public opinion on policy, particularly regarding climate change and abortion rights. The discussion underscores the significance of voting as a means to shape the country's future, with a focus on the potential for change and the comparative positions of the two parties on key issues.

Takeaways

  • 🤝 The conversation features a discussion on the political climate leading up to the November elections, focusing on the challenges faced by Joe Biden and the binary choice between him and Donald Trump.
  • 🌎 The issue of young progressives disapproval towards Biden is addressed, with the emphasis on framing the election as a choice between two candidates with contrasting views on critical issues.
  • 🕍 The situation in Gaza and the criticism towards Biden's support for Netanyahu is discussed, with references to Bernie Sanders' stance and the call for leveraging US aid to influence a change in Israel's policies.
  • 🚫 The conversation highlights that despite criticisms, Biden has been a strong president on domestic policy, with significant achievements in climate change, infrastructure, and other areas.
  • 💰 The importance of voting is underscored as a means to influence the country's direction, with the upcoming election posing significant choices on issues like climate change and abortion rights.
  • 🔥 The potential impact of the abortion rights ballot measure in states like Florida is discussed, with the belief that such issues can mobilize voters and possibly influence election outcomes.
  • 📈 The script touches on the Biden campaign's cash advantage and the strategic use of resources in various states, highlighting the importance of resource allocation in winning close races.
  • 📊 The role of polling in the election is debated, with a discussion on the validity of polls and the potential biases within them, as well as the historical trend of voters displaying responsibility when faced with critical choices.
  • 🥇 The conversation includes a light-hearted wager on naming items from the Cheesecake Factory menu, reflecting the friendly yet competitive nature of political discourse.
  • 🎙 The necessity of presidential debates is affirmed, with the belief that they serve as a platform for voters to assess the candidates' fitness for office and their vision for the country.
  • 📚 The episode concludes with a mention of a book on saving America, suggesting the ongoing need for informed civic engagement and political education.

Q & A

  • What is the main issue discussed in the beginning of the transcript?

    -The main issue discussed is the growing concern over young people and progressives disapproving of Joe Biden and the challenge of framing the election as a binary choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

  • How does the speaker suggest approaching the issue of young voters who disapprove of Biden?

    -The speaker suggests separating the concerns about Israel from the overall approval of Biden's performance and highlighting the worse potential outcomes under Trump's administration.

  • What is Bernie Sanders' stance on the Biden administration's support for Israel?

    -Bernie Sanders is critical of the Biden administration's unwavering support for Benjamin Netanyahu and the moral, human, and political toll it has taken, but acknowledges the awful situation and calls for using America's leverage to push for humanitarian aid and a ceasefire.

  • What are some of the Biden administration's achievements mentioned in the transcript?

    -The achievements mentioned include the inflation reduction act, the infrastructure bill, bipartisan legislation, the use of administrative power, strong stance on antitrust, and attempts to cancel student debt.

  • How does the speaker describe Joe Biden's superpower?

    -The speaker describes Biden's superpower as his ability to listen, embrace, and build consensus from the center-left to the left, making more progressive positions sound moderate and achieving things that even a more left-wing president might not have been able to do.

  • What is the speaker's opinion on the importance of voting?

    -The speaker views voting as an opportunity to use a lever of power to make the country better or worse, emphasizing that it is not a grand statement of human identity but a choice with significant consequences.

  • How does the speaker feel about the possibility of abortion rights being on the ballot in several states?

    -The speaker believes that having abortion rights on the ballot will turn people out to vote and protect their basic human rights, and could potentially swing states like Florida in favor of the Democrats.

  • What is the speaker's perspective on the current cash advantage held by the Biden campaign?

    -The speaker views the cash advantage as a positive for the Biden campaign, allowing for more spending in various states and defining the opposition early on, despite the current polls showing Trump competitive.

  • What does the speaker think about the potential impact of a Biden-Trump debate?

    -The speaker believes that a debate is necessary and thinks that Biden will demonstrate his capability for the job, potentially exceeding lowered expectations set by right-wing media for him.

  • What is the outcome of the wager made between the speaker and the co-host?

    -The speaker loses the wager as they were unable to correctly name 10 items from the Cheesecake Factory menu, resulting in a donation to Vote Save America.

Outlines

00:00

🗣️ Political Framing and Biden's Performance

The paragraph discusses the challenge of framing the upcoming election as a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, particularly among young and progressive voters who disapprove of Biden's handling of various issues. The speaker suggests separating the criticism of Biden's support for Netanyahu from the broader critique of his administration's policies. They reference Bernie Sanders' stance, highlighting his criticism of Biden's unwavering support for Israel and the need for the U.S. to use its leverage to push for humanitarian aid and a ceasefire. The speaker emphasizes that despite the issues with Biden's policies, Trump would be worse on all fronts, including the handling of the situation in Gaza. They express hope that Biden's administration will listen to progressive voices like Sanders and work towards changing Israel's policies. The speaker also praises Biden's domestic policy achievements, such as the inflation reduction act and the infrastructure bill, and argues that he has exceeded expectations by building consensus and pushing for progressive policies.

05:01

👴 Age Concerns and the Importance of Voting

This paragraph addresses concerns about Biden's age and the importance of voting in the upcoming election. The speaker argues that if Biden were younger, his re-election would be unquestionable due to his domestic policy achievements. They acknowledge the real concern about age but emphasize the choice between a candidate who will fight to improve the country and one who would make it worse. The speaker discusses the impact of voting on key issues like climate change and abortion rights, and the potential for Biden to be persuaded on various issues, unlike Trump. They also touch on the strategy of turning out voters through issues like abortion rights, which are being challenged in multiple states, and the importance of resource allocation in tight races across the country.

10:05

💰 Campaign Finances and Polling

The speaker discusses the financial advantage Biden has in his campaign, with over $150 million in cash on hand, compared to Trump. They note Biden's spending in various states while Trump is saving his resources. The speaker questions the impact of this financial disparity and the effectiveness of traditional advertising versus digital ads in reaching younger, less engaged voters. They also address the current polls, which show a stubborn stickiness in Trump's support despite Biden's economic achievements and the popularity of issues like abortion rights. The speaker expresses skepticism about the validity of polls, citing past instances where polls were deemed inaccurate, but ultimately argues that as the election approaches and the choice becomes clearer, voters are likely to turn out in favor of Biden, based on past behavior in special elections and the responsibility gene in the electorate.

15:07

🍽️ Cheesecake Factory Menu Wager

In this paragraph, the speaker engages in a light-hearted wager with the co-host about naming items from the Cheesecake Factory menu. The speaker confidently lists various dishes, including appetizers, salads, entrees, and desserts, showcasing their knowledge of the menu. The wager is set such that if the speaker wins, they will donate to Vote Save America, and if they lose, they will donate to a fund supporting Mitch McConnell. The speaker successfully names ten items, leading to their victory in the wager and a commitment to donate to Vote Save America. The paragraph concludes with the speaker continuing to list more items from the menu, demonstrating their extensive knowledge.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Joe Biden

Joe Biden is the 46th President of the United States, who is mentioned in the transcript as a figure of discussion. The conversation revolves around his administration's policies, his performance, and the comparison with his predecessor, Donald Trump. The keyword is central to the theme of the video, which is a political analysis of the current administration and its potential re-election.

💡Donald Trump

Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States and the main figure of comparison to Joe Biden in the transcript. The conversation assesses his potential impact on various policies and the election dynamics if he were to run again. His name is used to contrast the current administration's actions and to discuss the political climate surrounding the upcoming elections.

💡Progressives

Progressives refer to a faction within the Democratic Party that advocates for more liberal policies and reforms. In the transcript, the term is used to describe a group of people who may disapprove of Biden's policies and are discussed in the context of their potential voting behavior in future elections.

💡Gaza

Gaza is a Palestinian territory and a hotspot for conflict between Israel and Palestine. In the transcript, the situation in Gaza is brought up as one of the issues where the Biden administration's policies are being critiqued and compared to Trump's stance. It is used as an example of the complex foreign policy challenges that the current administration faces.

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to the long-term shifts in global temperature and weather patterns, primarily due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels. In the transcript, climate change is a key issue discussed in relation to the policies of both Biden and Trump, and the potential impact of their respective presidencies on environmental policies and the fight against climate change.

💡Abortion Rights

Abortion rights refer to the legal and ethical issues surrounding a woman's right to have an abortion. In the transcript, this term is used in the context of political battles and ballot measures, particularly in relation to the upcoming elections in various states and the potential national implications of these local issues.

💡Election

Election refers to the process of choosing leaders or representatives through voting. In the transcript, the term is used in the context of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, as well as state and local elections, highlighting the importance of voter participation and the potential outcomes of these political contests.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In the transcript, inflation is discussed as one of the economic challenges faced during Biden's presidency and as a concern for voters that could influence their decisions in the upcoming elections.

💡Democracy

Democracy refers to a system of government where power is vested in the people, who rule either directly or through freely elected representatives. In the transcript, democracy is a central theme, with discussions on the importance of protecting democratic values and processes, and the potential threats posed by certain political figures.

💡Political Rhetoric

Political rhetoric refers to the language, discourse, and messaging used by politicians to persuade, influence, or communicate with the public and other political actors. In the transcript, political rhetoric is discussed in the context of how it shapes public opinion and voter behavior, particularly in relation to the messaging of Biden and Trump.

Highlights

The discussion begins with the concern of young people and progressives disapproving of Joe Biden for various reasons, including inflation, housing, and the situation in Gaza.

The binary choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is framed, with the argument that Trump would be worse on all issues, especially regarding the situation in Gaza.

Bernie Sanders' criticism of the Biden Administration's unwavering support for Benjamin Netanyahu is mentioned, highlighting the moral and political toll it has taken.

The importance of using America's leverage to push for humanitarian aid and a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict is emphasized.

Donald Trump's rhetoric on Israel is discussed, with the assertion that he is worse than Biden on every issue.

The idea that electing Trump would exacerbate the already difficult situation is presented, with the argument that Biden is more likely to be persuaded on various issues.

Joe Biden's domestic policy achievements are praised, with the claim that he has been an extraordinary president despite the challenges he faced.

The inflation reduction act and the infrastructure bill are cited as examples of Biden's significant investments in climate change and infrastructure.

Biden's use of administrative power and his efforts to empower people with strong stances on antitrust are mentioned.

The argument is made that Biden has outperformed expectations and has been a better president than any Republican could have been.

The belief that Biden's age might be a concern for some voters is acknowledged, but the focus is on the choice between making the country better or worse.

The importance of voting is discussed, emphasizing that it is an opportunity to use power to influence the country's direction.

The potential impact of the abortion rights question on the ballot in several states, including Florida, Montana, and Arizona, is analyzed.

The cash advantage that Biden has over Trump and the implications of this advantage for the upcoming election are discussed.

The effectiveness of traditional advertising versus digital ads in reaching younger, less engaged voters is considered.

The current economic situation, including job reports and inflation, is discussed in relation to the upcoming election.

The significance of polls and the potential bias towards Trump in these polls are debated.

The belief that Biden's campaign will gain momentum as the election approaches and the choice between Biden and Trump becomes clearer is expressed.

The idea that debates between Biden and Trump are inevitable and necessary, and the potential impact of these debates on the election is discussed.

The wager made at the end of the discussion, where the participant has to name 10 items from the Cheesecake Factory menu correctly.

Transcripts

00:00

I'm now joined by the co-host of PS of

00:02

America the host of Love it or leave it

00:03

and content Queen oh yeah John love it

00:05

thanks for taking the time hi we're here

00:07

in your studio we're here yes we're here

00:09

in the in the uh in the Crooked that's

00:12

right so I want to start with an issue

00:13

that I think is is more and more

00:15

worrisome as we head toward November and

00:17

that is that there are young people

00:18

there are progressives who disapprove of

00:20

Joe Biden for whatever reason whether

00:22

it's inflation housing Gaza how do you

00:25

approach the issue of framing this as a

00:27

binary choice between Joe Biden and

00:29

Donald Trump Trump who would be

00:31

objectively worse on all of these issues

00:32

and especially the issue of Gaza with

00:35

people who who right now very adamantly

00:37

want to punish Joe Biden at The Ballot

00:39

Box so I think you have

00:42

to I I actually

00:44

put the concerns and anger on Israel in

00:49

a separate category and I'd actually

00:52

point you to Bernie Sanders answer to

00:56

John on PS of America this week which I

00:58

thought really captured the way I feel

01:02

about it anyway which

01:04

is Bernie Sanders is unabashed in his

01:08

criticism of the bid

01:09

Administration he is I think

01:13

rightly confused by just

01:17

how much unwavering support Joe Biden

01:22

has shown not to Israel but to Benjamin

01:24

Netanyahu and the moral and human toll

01:28

not to mention political toll toll that

01:30

that has

01:32

taken but the point that Bernie Sanders

01:35

makes is this is awful and he is trying

01:39

to move the Biden Administration there

01:42

are now Senators even long time very

01:45

staunch Defenders of Israel who have

01:46

come out in favor of conditioning Aid uh

01:49

who have said that uh there has to be uh

01:53

we have to use America's leverage to

01:56

push Israel into allowing humanitarian

01:58

Aid and and push Israel into uh a

02:04

ceasefire but the point that Sanders

02:07

makes is this is an awful

02:10

situation but electing Donald Trump only

02:13

makes it worse only makes it much worse

02:16

there's no issue on which Donald Trump

02:17

isn't worse than Joe Biden and that is

02:20

very much true he's listened to Donald

02:22

Trump's rhetoric on Israel in just the

02:24

past couple weeks it is very much true

02:27

so I far be it for me to be

02:32

claiming that I

02:34

have the words or sentiments to convince

02:37

people who are disgusted by what's

02:39

happening uh to convince them that they

02:41

need to turn out for Joe Biden I do hope

02:44

that the Biden ministration listens to

02:47

people like Bernie Sanders and others

02:49

who are calling for them to use the

02:50

administration's leverage to change

02:52

Israel's

02:54

policies but uh I do think the point

02:56

that Bernie makes there is right more

02:59

broadly

03:01

especially on domestic policy Joe Biden

03:04

has been an extraordinary president he

03:06

really has there are many reasons why he

03:10

has not achieved a great deal of what he

03:12

had hoped to achieve on student loans

03:14

for example although they're taking

03:15

another shot at it

03:17

but given the hand that he was dealt the

03:23

divisions in the Congress The Economic

03:27

Consequences of a pandemic of right-wing

03:30

propaganda apparatus aimed at him he did

03:33

as much with the the the cards he was

03:36

dealt as any president could you look at

03:39

the inflation reduction act as the

03:40

biggest investment in climate change uh

03:43

policy uh in history you look at the

03:46

infrastructure Bill and some of the

03:47

bipartisan things he was able to get

03:49

through even with a whole a majority of

03:51

Republicans just radicalized against

03:54

governing against democracy you look at

03:56

the way he's wielded administrative

03:58

power the way he's tried to empower

04:00

uh uh people who take such a strong line

04:03

on antitrust you look at how he has

04:04

managed to go around a Supreme Court

04:06

ruling to try to cancel as much student

04:08

debt as humanly possible you look at the

04:10

record and it is a record that deserves

04:15

re-election and whatever concerns people

04:19

have whatever disappointments people

04:21

have Joe Biden uh has been a better

04:25

president than any Republican could been

04:27

he has been a better Democratic

04:28

president than anyone hoped has been he

04:30

has outperformed what a lot of people's

04:32

expectations were he consistently

04:34

exceeds people's expectations and he's

04:36

done it you know his great superpower

04:39

has been to listen and embrace and try

04:44

to build consensus from the center left

04:47

all the way to the left and in doing so

04:51

making more Progressive positions sound

04:53

moderate that is his great superpower

04:55

that is an amazing achievement that

04:56

means that he's been able to get some

04:58

things done that I even think are more

04:59

leftwing president might not have been

05:01

able to get done just by virtue of it

05:03

being Joe Biden just by virtue of it

05:04

being Joe Biden if he were 10 years

05:06

younger this wouldn't even be a question

05:08

of course of course of course he will

05:11

have deserved re-election on his

05:12

domestic policy achievements the age

05:15

concern is there it is real but uh we

05:19

all collectively have a choice about

05:22

whether or not we want someone who is

05:23

going to fight to make the country

05:24

better or someone who's going to make it

05:26

much worse someone who's going to try to

05:27

enshrine row into law or someone who's

05:29

going to try to pass a National Abortion

05:31

ban someone who is going to go after

05:33

trans people and and and gender

05:35

affirming care or someone who's going to

05:36

try to protect it at the federal level

05:38

someone who believes in democracy or

05:39

someone who

05:41

doesn't voting is not some Grand

05:44

statement of human identity it is not

05:46

the defining character trait that that

05:48

proves who you are or or what you

05:50

believe it is an opportunity to use a

05:53

lever of power to make the country

05:55

better or to make the country worse we

05:57

will have a choice in November on

05:58

climate for example

06:00

I don't think that there is a bigger

06:02

Choice facing a democracy on Earth

06:04

probably in the next decade than whether

06:05

or not we elect uh a Democrat for the

06:08

climate on planet Earth I don't think

06:10

that there's a bigger choice I think

06:12

every climate activist in the country

06:13

whatever their legitimate gripes are

06:15

with Joe Biden's Embrace of kind of an

06:17

all of the above strategy of of his

06:20

failure to to to to to do a host of

06:23

different things whatever the valid

06:24

criticisms may be every person who

06:26

believes that we have to tackle climate

06:28

change ought to be doing everything they

06:29

can to elect Joe Biden in November and

06:31

you can you can do that across virtually

06:33

every single issue and I think what's

06:36

important to point out too is that he

06:38

can be persuaded on a lot of these

06:40

issues Donald Trump can't and so knowing

06:43

that this is the choice however flawed

06:45

that choice may be if you have you know

06:48

on on issues that you don't even agree

06:49

with Joe Biden on at all like whether

06:51

it's whether it's you know Gaza whether

06:52

it's whatever it is Joe Biden is much

06:55

more likely to be persuaded to be more

06:57

moderate to have a moderated position on

06:59

those issues than Donald Trump who has

07:00

already signaled that what he'll do with

07:02

Gaza for example is just go and raise it

07:04

raise it to the ground not only do we

07:06

know that Joe Biden can be persuaded we

07:08

have seen Joe Biden be persuaded that

07:10

Joe Biden that is President is governing

07:12

more to the left than than than you

07:15

would expect from his decades long

07:17

career in politics more than what a lot

07:18

of people expected when he became the

07:20

nominee yeah he was persuaded he has

07:23

shifted there is a beautiful story in

07:25

that this mostly Centrist figure uh

07:29

spent decades trying to become president

07:31

and in deciding that that that the

07:34

country's Soul was a Jeopardy that he

07:36

truly believed democracy was on the line

07:38

not in not running on a lefty platform

07:41

not running on an ideological that was

07:44

not the guiding principle of his

07:45

campaign that was not what motivated him

07:47

run he believed democracy was in

07:48

Jeopardy he believed that that that that

07:51

that there was a decency and goodness in

07:53

America and that he had an obligation to

07:55

run to to call upon that decency to

07:58

prevent Donald Trump from being

08:00

reelected and in his belief in democracy

08:03

he brought the leftwing and the to to

08:07

the table he he brought Bernie in he

08:10

brought a bunch of different people in

08:12

he he he kind of reshaped the consensus

08:15

of the democratic party and that belief

08:18

in democracy shaped not only his reason

08:20

for running but for the way he governed

08:22

and there's something like remarkable

08:24

and important and beautiful in that

08:26

story uh H that's how I feel about that

08:30

perfectly put um I want to switch gears

08:32

a little bit here to uh the question of

08:35

of abortion specifically so we're

08:36

expecting the question of codifying

08:38

abortion rights to be on the ballot in

08:40

Florida in Montana in Arizona among

08:42

other states this November including New

08:44

York by the way which has major

08:46

implications for down ballot races in

08:48

that state does this actually put a

08:50

place like Florida for example in play

08:52

like if someone asked you whether they

08:54

should donate to candidates in Florida

08:57

given the fact that we have limited

08:58

resources what would you tell them it's

09:01

a really good question I would look is

09:03

America do I believe it's possible sure

09:06

anything's possible possible anything no

09:09

I I look if we're winning in Florida

09:12

we're having a good election day yeah uh

09:14

do I believe that abortion being on the

09:17

ballot um turns people out absolutely we

09:21

have seen abortion win not just in

09:22

States like California but in States

09:23

like Kentucky in in in red

09:27

Ohio Kansas uh

09:30

so when the when voters are are told

09:35

that their basic human rights are going

09:37

to be on the ballot they show up and

09:39

they protect them that is absolutely

09:40

true does that turn a state that has

09:43

been sliding away from us into a state

09:45

we can win maybe maybe but I also say

09:49

you know we've got tough races to win in

09:52

Ohio got a close race to win in

09:53

Wisconsin we've got races to win in

09:55

Nevada we've got races to win in Arizona

09:57

there are a lot of places where your

09:58

money go very

10:00

far I think it remains to be seen uh if

10:05

do I think that abortion being on the

10:06

ballot means that that we can do well in

10:08

Florida and better than we had hoped

10:09

absolutely does it make Florida swing

10:11

state

10:12

again I'd like to see I'd like to see

10:14

more information I'd like to me I'd like

10:15

to see some data on that first well well

10:17

to that point Biden right now has a huge

10:19

cash Advantage I think he has over $150

10:21

million cash on hand Trump doesn't Biden

10:24

is spending in a raft of States right

10:25

now while Trump is laying low likely to

10:27

save what cash he has left and that he's

10:29

not paying to Alina Haba to represent

10:31

him in losing cases in court how much of

10:33

an impact do you think that that makes

10:35

right now um because on one hand like it

10:38

is important to define the opposition

10:39

early but then on the other hand most

10:41

people aren't even paying attention to

10:42

politics right now yeah and I do think

10:45

there is this like there is this

10:47

increasing problem which is the people

10:49

that you can reach with traditional

10:50

advertising are are older are maybe more

10:54

likely to vote already and the younger

10:56

less engaged people who have already

10:58

caught the cut the corridor never had

10:59

the court to begin with aren't going to

11:01

see as many television ads but they will

11:04

see digital

11:06

ads I think I think you you would always

11:08

rather have a cash Advantage I would

11:10

rather have better polls I think that if

11:12

you could ask Donald Trump what would

11:13

you rather have right now more money or

11:15

the polls that he have I think you

11:16

picked the polls honestly well then you

11:18

know right now we are seeing the

11:19

strongest economy in our lifetimes uh

11:21

jobs report came out this week that

11:22

showed that Biden broke 15 million jobs

11:25

Democrats are out there campaigning for

11:26

abortion rights which is popular with

11:28

three ERS of the country and yet the

11:31

polling is right now stubbornly stuck

11:33

with Trump how much are you taking

11:35

seriously the polls versus ignoring them

11:38

and also adding in the fact that you

11:39

know for so often we see that there is a

11:41

fundamental issue with the with the

11:44

validity of polls I we should assume

11:46

they're true I the people that are like

11:49

oh the polls are probably wrong and

11:51

actually it's there's a there's a bias

11:53

towards Trump in these polls like okay I

11:55

hope you're right let's pretend you're

11:56

not right let's live as though these

11:58

polls are are an accurate snapshot of

12:00

where voters are right

12:02

now the Biden campaign has said for a

12:04

long time there's been a lot look

12:05

obviously people have been we've gone

12:07

through kind of

12:10

periodic uh uh moments of just Panic

12:13

there's like Panic news Cycles I don't

12:14

know what stirs them right like they're

12:16

sort of lowlevel and then all of a

12:17

sudden there's some some event or some

12:19

issue kind of leads to a round of oh

12:21

he's too old and we need a a broker

12:23

convention or uh uh he like misplaces a

12:26

modifier one day and uh but put aside

12:30

that kind of like EB and flow of

12:33

concern the Biden campaign has

12:36

consistently said especially like in the

12:39

last few months before the campaign had

12:40

really heated up uh when people are

12:44

actually presented with the

12:45

choice uh these polls will go from reg

12:48

registering a kind of dissatisfaction an

12:51

anger a sourness a desire for something

12:54

better a wish that the choices were

12:56

better a dissatisfaction with by having

12:58

to have this face off again a kind of

13:00

General unhappiness in the country which

13:03

is what they you know let's say that's

13:05

what these polls register over time as

13:08

the Campa campaign heats up as people

13:11

are actually confronted with the not

13:13

just a real Joe Biden who is actually

13:16

president versus a prospective or Gauzy

13:19

version of trump a real Biden versus a

13:22

real Trump that fundamental

13:25

responsibility that voters have put on

13:27

display ever since 2016 what they they

13:29

did in 20 in 2017 in 2018 and 2020 and

13:33

2022 and 2023 will bear out now I think

13:37

there are people who overstate the

13:39

significance of these special elections

13:41

which I do think speak to a kind of like

13:43

hyper engaged subset of the democratic

13:45

electorate just showing up yeah uh

13:47

they're listening to this right now um

13:50

otherwise known as our audience right

13:52

but but I do think that there is

13:55

something to there is something to the

13:57

idea that a poll is one thing a poll a

14:00

year out or six months out or eight

14:02

months out is one thing but that when

14:04

people are actually confronted with a

14:05

choice they turn out to protect abortion

14:07

they turn out to vote against election

14:09

deniers they turn out to vote against

14:10

people that want to Pardon

14:12

insurrectionists and that that

14:13

responsibility Gene is still in there um

14:16

and as and you know even in the past

14:18

couple weeks I don't think you can call

14:21

it a don't call it a comeback but I do

14:23

think you start to see like you blew

14:25

your eyes like okay the campaign's

14:27

ramping up lot of news Cycles Trump vers

14:29

Biden Trump vers Biden Biden vers Trump

14:31

Biden vers Trump and what do you see you

14:32

start to see a few places where Biden's

14:34

ticking up where Trump is ticking down

14:36

and you start to say okay this is the

14:38

Biden theory that over time as the

14:39

campaign really begins in Earnest as the

14:41

choice becomes clear we will see a

14:43

change we have to see that change yeah I

14:45

think right now I think that's a great

14:46

point I think right now what we're

14:47

seeing is like people registering

14:48

dissatisfaction with this with how it is

14:50

right now but not necessarily an

14:52

acknowledgement of what these polls will

14:54

eventually show which is that this is a

14:56

binary choice between two people um so

14:59

yeah and I think that will start to Bear

15:00

it out and also by the way as the

15:02

election tilts towards what are you

15:04

going to do in the next four years I

15:06

think there are a lot of people like

15:08

I've seen some kind of discourse like

15:10

why why are some of

15:13

these these low numbers so um stubborn

15:18

right like you just pointed there's

15:19

great economic data that came out

15:21

inflation is not where it was a year ago