How Poland is Preparing for War
Summary
TLDRPoland is bolstering its military in response to regional tensions, with plans to double land forces to 300,000 personnel over five yearsβa move that would make its military larger than the combined forces of France and Germany. This significant increase includes a substantial investment in defense spending, aiming to reach 4% of GDP, the highest in NATO. The country is also modernizing its arsenal with new tanks, air defense systems, and artillery, while considering joining NATO's nuclear sharing program. These measures are driven by Poland's historical vulnerability to invasion and the current geopolitical climate, particularly the conflict in Ukraine and concerns over Russia's intentions.
Takeaways
- π Poland is significantly increasing its military presence and defense spending in response to regional security concerns, aiming to double its land forces to 300,000 personnel over the next 5 years.
- βοΈ Poland's military expansion will result in the country having a larger military force than the combined forces of France and Germany once completed.
- π° The country plans to raise its defense spending to 4% of GDP, which amounts to about $133 billion over the next 5 years, the highest percentage in NATO.
- π¨ Poland has been one of the most invaded countries in history, which influences its current defense strategy and the urgency to modernize its military.
- π Poland is replacing its old Soviet-era military equipment with new, modern arsenals, including a significant focus on acquiring new main battle tanks.
- π€ Poland is deepening its military and economic ties with NATO allies, particularly through the purchase of military equipment like tanks from the United States and South Korea.
- π‘οΈ Air defense is a key area of focus for Poland, with significant deals in place for Patriot missile launchers from the U.S. and Naru air defense systems from the U.K.
- π Poland's geography, characterized by flat plains with few natural barriers, necessitates a large military force to adequately defend its borders.
- π₯ Poland is investing in long-range strike capabilities with the acquisition of K9 Howitzers, HIMARS launchers, and CHANMO rocket artillery from South Korea.
- π©οΈ To ensure air superiority, Poland is purchasing F-35A Lightning II Jets and additional F-16s, as well as AH-64 Apache Attack Helicopters.
- π Despite the ambitious modernization plans, challenges include securing long-term financing, a decreasing population which might affect recruitment, and the need to maintain a high level of readiness and deterrence.
Q & A
Why is Poland preparing for war?
-Poland is preparing for war in the hopes of deterring it from ever happening, by sending more troops to its border with Belarus after claiming airspace violations and doubling their land forces to 300,000 personnel over the next 5 years.
What is the significance of Poland's military becoming larger than the French and German forces combined?
-The significance lies in Poland's strategic location and the historical context of being invaded multiple times. A larger military force signals a strong deterrence against potential aggressors and a commitment to national security.
What is Poland's defense spending goal over the next 5 years?
-Poland aims to increase their defense spending to 4% of GDP, which amounts to about $133 billion over the next 5 years, making it the highest percentage in the entire NATO alliance.
What challenges might Poland's defense modernization efforts face?
-Challenges include securing long-term financing for the project, managing the logistics of a large and diverse fleet of vehicles, and maintaining a sufficient active personnel force given the demographic forecast showing a decreasing population.
What is Poland's strategy regarding its border with Ukraine and Belarus?
-Poland's strategy involves creating three separate areas of operation with the newly created 18th mechanized division, the 16th mechanized division, and the resurrected First Legion division, each focusing on different border regions and defense needs.
What is the significance of Poland's acquisition of new main battle tanks?
-The acquisition of 1,300 new main battle tanks is central to Poland's defense strategy, providing a significant increase in firepower and modern capabilities to deter potential adversaries and protect their extensive borders.
How does Poland plan to address the issue of air defense?
-Poland plans to address air defense by acquiring 48 Patriot missile launcher stations and over 650 interceptor missiles from the United States, as well as 100 Naru air defense systems and 1,000 missiles from the United Kingdom.
What is the role of Poland's territorial Defense Forces?
-The territorial Defense Forces is a 37,000-strong reserve unit with the ability to call up an additional 100,000 volunteers if needed. Its main mission is to guard against hybrid threats from Belarus in the East.
What are Poland's plans regarding nuclear deterrence?
-Poland is considering entering the 'nuclear sharing' program, a component of NATO's nuclear deterrence policy that provides nuclear weapons to member states that don't possess their own, in response to Belarus receiving nuclear weapons under a similar program with Russia.
How does Poland's modernization plan align with its NATO membership?
-Poland's modernization plan takes into account its membership in NATO and the need for strong European structures, bilateral, and regional cooperation with key partners, aiming to create a credible deterrent force that can also contribute to the collective defense of the alliance.
Outlines
π Poland's Military Expansion and Defense Strategy
The video discusses Poland's military preparations amidst geopolitical tensions. Poland is increasing its troop presence on the border with Belarus and aims to double its land forces to 300,000 personnel over five years. This move is part of a broader strategy to deter potential aggression, with the country's military expected to surpass the combined forces of France and Germany. Poland's Prime Minister, Tusk, highlights the critical nature of the current situation, likening it to the post-World War II era. The country plans to raise its defense spending to 4% of GDP, the highest in NATO, and is replacing its old military infrastructure with new systems. Challenges such as securing long-term financing and the need for unique weapon systems are also explored.
π° Historical Context and Poland's Geopolitical Position
The video provides a historical context for Poland's military strategy, noting its frequent invasions and the impact of its geographical position at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe. Poland's transformation post-Cold War included flipping its military bases to face eastward threats while transitioning to a democratic free-market economy. Despite periods of peace, Poland has reduced its military size and become dependent on foreign NATO allies for equipment. The Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have heightened Poland's concerns, leading to significant military and industrial shifts, including the donation of tanks to Ukraine and the consolidation of its defense industry.
π Poland's Modernization and Strategic Deployment
The video outlines Poland's military modernization efforts, focusing on the procurement of new equipment and the strategic deployment of forces. Poland is creating new mechanized divisions and looking to replace its old Soviet-era equipment with modern arsenals. The country's geography, characterized by flat plains, necessitates a large military presence due to the lack of natural defensive barriers. Poland's military strategy involves deploying advanced gear to key operational areas, including the 18th Mechanized Division in the southeast and the 16th Mechanized Division in the northeast. The video also discusses the potential for nuclear sharing within NATO and Poland's considerations for such a program.
π€ International Cooperation and Military Aid
Poland's military strategy includes international cooperation and the receipt of military aid. The country has transferred military technology from the United States and South Korea and consolidated its defense industry under one entity, PGZ. Poland has also provided significant military aid to Ukraine, including tanks, and is focusing on acquiring new main battle tanks and air defense systems. The video highlights Poland's efforts to manufacture K2 tanks domestically and its purchase of American Abrams tanks and South Korean K2 tanks to modernize its forces.
π‘οΈ Air Defense and Missile Systems for Poland
The video discusses Poland's acquisition of air defense systems to protect its tanks and military assets. Poland has signed a deal with the United States for Patriot missile launchers and interceptor missiles, which have a range of 150 km and can defend against ballistic missiles, aircraft, and drones. Additionally, Poland has an agreement with the United Kingdom for Naru air defense systems and missiles, ensuring the protection of ground forces. Poland is also increasing its artillery production and investing in long-range strike capabilities, including K9 Howitzers and HIMARS launchers, to enhance its military power.
βοΈ Poland's Air Superiority and Modernization Challenges
The video addresses Poland's efforts to maintain air superiority through the acquisition of F-35A Lightning II jets and additional F-16 and F-50 fighters, as well as AH-64 Apache attack helicopters. Poland's military modernization is not without challenges, including demographic shifts and the need for long-term financing. Despite these challenges, Poland's government is committed to increasing military personnel to 140,000 and has strong public support for its defense initiatives. The video concludes by emphasizing Poland's strategic importance within NATO and its determination to remain a key player in European security.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Spare Parts Army Poland
π‘Border Violations
π‘Land Forces
π‘Defense Spending
π‘NATO Alliance
π‘Military Modernization
π‘Geopolitical Crossroads
π‘Hybrid Threats
π‘Tactical Level
π‘Espionage
π‘Air Defense Systems
Highlights
Poland is preparing for war to deter potential aggression, with plans to double its land forces to 300,000 personnel over the next 5 years.
Poland's military expansion will result in a force larger than the combined French and German forces once completed.
The country aims to raise its defense spending to 4% of GDP, the highest percentage in NATO, amounting to about $133 billion over the next 5 years.
Poland is located at a geopolitical crossroads between Eastern and Western Europe, making it a critical player in regional security.
Poland has taken in 1.3 million refugees from Ukraine, highlighting its significant impact from the ongoing conflict.
Critics argue that Poland's defense strategy may be driven by political populism rather than a long-term, well-thought-out plan.
Poland's historical experience of being invaded multiple times shapes its current defense strategy and spending.
The country's military infrastructure was reoriented after the fall of Soviet communism to face potential threats from the East.
Poland is focusing on acquiring new main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to modernize its armed forces.
The Polish military is establishing the Territorial Defense Forces, a reserve unit, to guard against hybrid threats.
Poland is investing in air defense systems, including the Patriot missile system from the United States, to protect its airspace.
The country is increasing its artillery production and acquiring long-range strike capabilities to bolster its defensive and offensive potential.
Poland is procuring advanced fighter jets and attack helicopters to maintain air superiority and support ground operations.
The modernization efforts are supported by a majority of the Polish population, according to a 2022 survey.
Poland's demographic challenges, including a decreasing population, may affect its ability to double its forces.
Poland's defense modernization strategy is not just defensive; it aims to convey a credible offensive capability to deter adversaries.
The country is considering joining NATO's nuclear sharing program to enhance its deterrence against potential threats.
Poland's military modernization is part of a broader effort to ensure its continued relevance and security within NATO for centuries to come.
Transcripts
welcome back spare parts Army Poland is
now preparing for war in the hopes of
deterring it from ever happening in the
first place Poland is sending more
troops to its border with Belarus after
claiming two bellerian military
helicopters violated its airspace most
importantly I think that if Russia is
stopped in Ukraine it won't attack again
they intend to double their land forces
to a staggering 300,000 Personnel over
the next 5 years seeking to stop people
once and for all from claiming they
accidentally invaded Poland to put this
into context once once it's completed
Poland's military will be larger than
the French and German forces combined
which makes a lot of sense because a lot
is at stake for them polish prime
minister Tusk said quote we are living
in the most critical moment since the
end of World War II the next 2 years
will decide everything Poland aims to
achieve this gigantic goal by raising
their defense spending to 4% of GDP or
about $133 billion over the next 5 years
it's the highest percentage in the
entire NATO alliance it's it's like
they're throwing out their old military
and replacing it with a brand new one
but what challenges will Poland's
defense modernization efforts face along
the way what type of unique weapon
systems will they need to invest in and
which strategies will they Deploy on the
Tactical level I'm your average infan
Chris Cappy hit the like And subscribe
button and let's find out not my circus
not my monkeys it's a popular polish
saying that means it's none of my
business and I'm not responsible for
this volatile situation however when
your nation is located at the Crossroads
between eastern and western Europe when
it comes to geopolitics Poland rarely
has the luxury of it not being their
monkeys today Russian forces in Ukraine
are battling on a front line that's only
800 km away from Poland's border you
wouldn't even need to take turns driving
there it's like the same distance from
New York City to North Carolina but
first I want to tell you about today's
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through the intense training and then
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with the amount of action-packed
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on the edge of your seat go check out
the Blue Angels in IMAX theaters this
week only Poland is one of the countries
most affected by this conflict because
they've already taken in 1.3 million
refugees from Ukraine Poland's publicly
stated justification for increasing
defense spending can be found in their
2020 National defense strategy paper
approved by their president quote the
most serious threat is the neo-imperial
policy of the authorities of the Russian
Federation the military aggression
against Georgia the illegal annexation
of Crimea and the activities in eastern
Ukraine have violated the basic
principles of international law and
undermined the pillars of the European
security system if that statement by the
Polish government sounds like a bunch of
paranoid hogwash to you like my
therapist always says to me then
remember Poland has the distinct honor
of being one of the most invaded people
throughout all of history they've been
invaded or fought battles hundreds of
times on their own soil in the past
10,000 years the Mongols tonic Knights
Nazi Germany the Ottoman Empire and
Russia are just a few of the usual
suspects to invade however on the other
hand critics of Poland's National
defense strategy like Robert cha state
that he believes they could have troubl
securing long-term financing for the
project he believes the large- scale
orders are driven by political populism
aimed at gaining popularity here and now
instead of being a well thought out plan
either way so the potential economic
advantages of their valuable geographic
location has been offset by the fact
that they have so few easily defensible
natural land boundaries rivers and
mountains to prevent foreign Invasion
imagine you just bought your dream home
but it's located in the middle of a
shooting r range that's that's Poland
this is part of the reason why Poland
lived under nearly half a century of
Soviet communist rule where their
economy was tightly controlled this
meant their development was constrained
by the higher priorities of the Eastern
block that is until they finally gained
genuine Independence in 1989 but Poland
instantly faced a major problem all of
their bases in military infrastructure
was created to facilitate advancing to
the West while defending against an army
trying to move to the East according to
a publication titled Poland's threat
assessment after 1991 Poland had to do a
complete about face and flip their bases
locations to face a threat from the East
this was a lot harder than simply moving
your no trespassing signs this was done
while simultaneously pulling off major
civil reforms to transform from a
centralized Communist economy to a
democratic free market one as a result
Poland experienced an economic
Resurgence but during periods of
prolonged peace and prosperity it's easy
to let down your hair and lower your
guard a little from 1995 to 2009 the
Polish military size was reduced from
300,000 to a low of
121,000 many units were disbanded and
training centers closed their doors
according to the research paper titled
defense and Industrial policy in Poland
by Marcy turowski even as Poland's
economy grew their defense manufacturing
capabilities atrophied and received less
funding in 1999 Poland joined NATO and
in 2004 the European Union in an effort
to solidify alliances and maintain that
sovereignty but this had the KnockOn
effect of purchasing tanks from foreign
NATO allies becoming dependent on them
instead of their own industrial base
Poland's former Minister of Defense said
quote until then the threat from the
East was underestimated however we soon
realized that the policy of reducing the
Army was leading nowhere and was the
wrong approach try as Poland might to
stay out of the geopolitical circus
those monkeys kept dragging them back in
because in 2014 the Russian invasion of
Crimea seriously spooked Poland they
took two major steps in response the
first was transferring military
technology from the United States and
South Korea the second was consolidating
defense industrial base from 50 separate
polish companies down to one single
holding called the pgz then in 2022
Russian invasion of Ukraine saw Poland
taking the step of kicking their effort
to get rid of their old Soviet era
equipment into high gear 260 tanks were
gifted to Ukraine which is almost all
their Soviet era T-Series based tanks
it's like the old polish saying goes
with the hag off the carriage it's
easier on the horses that was considered
politically correct in the 1800s because
now they could focus on replacing old
stockpiles with brand new Arsenal I
think one word can sum up all of
Poland's National procurement strategy
since then
Mass it's the piece of the puzzle that
Poland feels they can bring to the table
sheer Manpower this makes sense as their
population is currently in the top 10 in
Europe at an estimated 41 million people
and a land mass of over 320,000 Square
km that's a lot of ground to cover down
on and protect because the Lynch pin of
Poland's hold defense strategy revolves
around acquiring 1,300 new main battle
tanks but what will these tanks be
protecting take a look at Po's border
it's every military planner's worst
nightmare to defend Poland shares a 530
some odd kilm border with Ukraine
According To open- Source numbers there
are eight ports of ground entry between
Poland and Ukraine and an additional
four Railways these are where much of
Western military aid transits through
it's what we would call the main
high-speed Avenues of approach that
would need to be defended it would also
become a two-way range possibly in the
future Poland decided they need a
contingency plan in case this border
ever becomes hostile occupied by Russia
it gets worse because they also share a
continuous 400 km border with bellus
who's a member of the Moscow Le
collective security Treaty Organization
now there are 11 ports of Entry
connecting Poland to bellus according to
publicly available data just right there
that's a total of roughly 19 different
Avenues of approach for tanks to come
through in a worst case scenario polish
forces need to split up and disperse
throughout this territory to defend it I
can personally relate to this I also
have trouble setting up personal
boundaries however Poland has an ace up
their sleeve in 2017 their military
stood up the territorial Defense Forces
which is a 37,000 Strong Reserve unit
with the ability to call up an
additional 100,000 volunteers if needed
the territorial defense Force's main
mission is to guard against hybrid
threats from bellus in the East the
current conventional threat from bellus
is considered to be a medium threat with
only 2,000 Russian forces stationed
there and 50,000 active duty bellarus
professional soldiers we've seen how
bellus got creative in the past by
sending thousands of immigrants to
Poland's border to pressure them
politically however a larger concern
here is that in March 2024 Russian
tactical nuclear weapons were moved to
bellarus this created a pressing need
for air defense that we're going to get
into so there are four main highways to
cover but the problem is it's not like
those serve as perfect choke points when
we look closer when we zoom in on the
Tactical picture we can see how Poland's
geography plays a major factor their
land is made up largely of flat Plains
and Farms that are dotted with small
forests usually a few colmers wide this
makes the borders more porous less cover
and less concealment it's a major reason
why Poland requires this mass and
quantity because of the lack of natural
choke points it will all work out
somehow polish military authorities are
all too aware of this problem throughout
history and so the strategy they
developed is to deploy three polish Army
divisions equipped with The Cutting Edge
gear to three separate areas of
operation the first is the newly created
18th mechanized polish division that was
stood up in 2018 their mission is to
focus on defending the Southeastern
border the 18th mechanized division is
already pre-positioned in the Southeast
instead of having to spend valuable
weeks to deploy here's the map of some
of Poland's major rail networks that can
help facilitate Logistics the railway
through the city of zesu just 60 km from
the border has become a major hub for
Western Aid shipments into Ukraine and
the target of Russian spiry rings this
is why it's important to have stockpiles
and infrastructure here ahead of time as
a contingency plan next up is the 16th
mechanized division that's focused on
protecting the northeastern borders
especially here this is called the
infamous s Gap the thigh gap of Europe
the salki Gap is a narrow strip of land
about 65 km wide between bellarus and
the Russian exclave of kenrad this is
where Poland shares a direct border with
Russia the border is about 230 km long
with four major roadways connecting it
to Poland before the war in Ukraine
estimates placed a sizable 30,000
Russian troops and hundreds of tank
station there but they have since been
diverted to the front lines in Ukraine
this has left only only 6,000 Russian
troops behind assuming no changes some
Polish tanks will be tied up in the
north by the small force from the
operational perspective though control
over this Corridor was essential for
NATO to reinforce their Baltic allies in
case of a conflict prior to Russia's
invasion of Ukraine this location looked
like it was a major vulnerability to
Nato planners because of the potential
for Russian forces to skirt across to
bellarus linking up and effectively
cutting off the Baltic States from
resupply however that calculation has
now changed according to this article by
tenant of Euro News this threat is
greatly reduced today thanks to Sweden
and Finland joining NATO tenet says
quote to put it simply with NATO members
bordering most of the Baltic Sea Russia
would be unable to prevent Western
reinforcements arriving by sea if that
sounds like a lot to you I challenge
that assumption sir because Poland
resurrected the first Legion division
from 1944 to also deploy here it's the
first one that's formed from scratch
entirely starting in 2022 and will
consist entirely of state-of-the-art
equipment the first Legion division will
be the largest of them all and its goal
is to saturate or fill in the gap
between the 18th and 16th divisions so
that's why maintaining large tank
formations is strategically important
for Poland the unique requirement of
their geography makes it necessary but
the vast majority of Poland's new tanks
will come from the 820 South Korean k2s
that they plan on producing domestic
ically in their own country make haste
slowly part of the problem with any
defense procurement is just how long it
takes we have to adjust our frame of
mind from thinking about threats that we
Face Tomorrow to thinking about threats
we might face 10 15 years from now much
of Poland's new equipment will not be
fully acquired until 2030 or 2035 even
according to their own estimates the
world could look very differently by
then for all we know Taylor Swift might
not even be the top female artist
anymore more it'll take Poland until
2026 just to start manufacturing those
K2 tanks Warsaw has already ordered 366
American Abrams tanks for over $4
billion that amount will include
everything though from spare parts and
training to brand new repair
headquarters take a look at the Polish
city of pnan in the western part of the
country safely tuck away it's where the
Abrams training academy and new Abrams
repair plant is located this is actually
a lesson learned by Poland in the early
2000s when they first purchased foreign
tanks from Germany and they quickly
found themselves with no way to fix them
this Center will also fix damage Abrams
Tanks coming out of Ukraine so far five
of them have been knocked out there
Poland will receive 250 of the newest M1
A2 sep version three which will include
all those modern bells and whistles like
thicker armor on the top to counter the
newest thread of kamakazi drones this is
why in the meantime they've ordered
rapid deployment of 180 South Korean k2s
as a stop top Gap so far they've
received 46 k2s and 69 of the Abrams
ordered but in case things get spicy
quicker than that there's another idea
the Polish government has been kicking
around since 2023 they might request