Caleb Williams dazzles at Pro Day, Bears playoff odds, Klatt’s Mock Draft | NFL | FIRST THINGS FIRST
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the hype surrounding the NFL draft and the potential of quarterback prospects, particularly focusing on Caleb. The conversation compares the current draft class with previous years, debating whether the hype is justified. It also touches on the historical success of top quarterbacks, the unpredictability of the position, and the strategic considerations for teams like the Patriots and Bears in the draft.
Takeaways
- 🏈 The discussion revolves around the hype and expectations surrounding the NFL draft prospects, particularly the quarterback position.
- 🌟 Caleb is considered the highest-regarded prospect since Andrew Luck, with a consensus belief that he is the number one pick.
- 🤔 There's a debate on whether the hype around Caleb is too high or too low, comparing his potential impact to past NFL draftees.
- 📈 Historical data on quarterbacks drafted number one and their success in the NFL is analyzed, with only a few living up to the hype.
- 🎯 The conversation includes a comparison of the potential of various quarterback prospects and their college performances.
- 🏆 The speakers discuss the rarity of drafting a truly great quarterback, citing examples from the past decades.
- 🔄 There's a strategic consideration for teams like the Patriots, who may need to draft a quarterback, to either pick one early or trade down to accumulate more assets.
- 🤷♂️ The unpredictability of the success of drafted quarterbacks is highlighted, with many not living up to their college reputation.
- 📊 The importance of experience is noted, with a discussion on how the number of pass attempts in college may affect a quarterback's readiness for the NFL.
- 🔢 A mock draft by Joel Clatt is mentioned, with six quarterbacks predicted to be taken in the first round.
Q & A
What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?
-The main topic of discussion is the hype and expectations surrounding the NFL draft prospects, particularly focusing on the quarterback position and the potential impact of these players on their respective teams.
How does the speaker describe the hype around the highest regarded prospect since Andrew Luck?
-The speaker describes the hype as being too low, considering the prospect is the highest regarded since Andrew Luck and has been compared to other great players like Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.
What is the speaker's opinion on the Bears' chances of winning games with their new quarterback?
-The speaker believes that the Bears are being underrated and that their new quarterback could lead them to win 10 or more games, which is considered a minority opinion.
What historical data is used to support the argument about the success of number one draft picks at the quarterback position?
-The speaker cites the success rate of top quarterbacks drafted since the merger, mentioning that out of 27 quarterbacks taken number one, eight or nine have lived up to the hype, including names like Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Troy Aikman, Payton Manning, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, and Joe Burrow.
What is the speaker's view on the importance of drafting a quarterback in the first round?
-The speaker emphasizes that teams in need of a quarterback should take advantage of the draft and select a quarterback early, as it's rare to find a great quarterback who slips through to later rounds.
How does the speaker feel about the Patriots' draft strategy?
-The speaker believes that the Patriots should draft a quarterback if they are not going to trade down, as it's crucial to take advantage of the opportunity when other teams are expected to draft quarterbacks early.
What is the speaker's stance on the correlation between college success and NFL success for quarterbacks?
-The speaker acknowledges that just because a player was phenomenal in college, like winning the Heisman, it doesn't guarantee success in the NFL, citing examples of quarterbacks who were successful and those who were not.
What historical draft classes are mentioned as being particularly strong for quarterbacks?
-The speaker mentions the 1983 draft class with Dan Marino and John Elway, and the 2000 draft class with Peyton Manning and Eli Manning as examples of strong quarterback classes.
What is the speaker's prediction for the 2022 QB draft class?
-The speaker predicts that the 2022 QB draft class could potentially have two great quarterbacks, one long-term starter, and a couple of players who may not pan out, which they consider a good outcome.
How does the speaker address the concerns about drafting a quarterback based on college performance?
-The speaker acknowledges that while college performance is a factor, it's not a guarantee of NFL success. They point out that many great NFL quarterbacks were not first-round picks and that teams should be cautious in their expectations.
What is the speaker's view on the importance of experience for quarterback prospects?
-The speaker believes that experience is important, as it can indicate a closer to a finished product. They note that the 2022 QB draft class has several prospects with significant pass attempts, which could be a positive sign.
Outlines
🏈 NFL Draft Hype and Expectations
The paragraph discusses the hype surrounding the NFL Draft, particularly focusing on the potential of quarterback prospects. It compares the current level of hype with past drafts and legendary players like Andrew Luck. The speaker argues that the hype around the current prospects might be too low, given their potential to significantly impact their teams' success. The conversation touches on the unpredictability of the quarterback position in the NFL and the historical performance of top draft picks.
📉 Draft Position and Team Strategy
This paragraph delves into the strategy teams might employ during the draft, especially when it comes to selecting quarterbacks. It highlights the importance of being in a position to draft a top-tier quarterback and the risks associated with passing on such an opportunity. The discussion includes historical examples of teams that successfully drafted quarterbacks and those that missed out, emphasizing the significance of making the right choice in the first round.
🤔 Assessing the Quarterback Class
The conversation shifts to evaluating the potential of the current quarterback class, with speculation on how many of them could turn out to be great, good, or busts. The speakers reference past quarterback classes to provide context for their predictions, acknowledging the rarity of drafting a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback. The paragraph also touches on the importance of experience and the potential outcomes for teams selecting later in the first round.
🔄 Draft Strategy and Team Needs
This section focuses on the draft strategies for teams like the Patriots and the Vikings, discussing the potential outcomes of drafting either a quarterback or trading down. The speakers debate the merits of selecting a quarterback when there's a consensus on the top player's talent, and the risks of not securing a franchise quarterback in a draft rich with talent. The conversation also considers the team needs and the potential for drafting other positions of need.
🎥 Final Thoughts on the Draft
The final paragraph wraps up the discussion with a focus on the Chicago Bears and their decision-making in the draft. It contrasts the current situation with past drafts and the potential trade-offs teams face when deciding between drafting a quarterback or another position. The speakers emphasize the importance of capitalizing on the opportunity to draft a potential star quarterback and the implications for teams like the Patriots who are in dire need of a franchise quarterback.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Aro Hall Show
💡New England
💡Chicago
💡Draft Prospects
💡Quarterback
💡Hype
💡NFL Draft
💡Andrew Luck
💡Super Bowl
💡Patriots
💡Caleb
Highlights
The discussion revolves around the hype and expectations surrounding the potential draft prospects, particularly focusing on the quarterback position.
The comparison of the current prospect's hype to that of Andrew Luck, who was regarded as a once-in-a-generation talent.
The debate on whether the Bears should move on from Justin Fields and the implications of drafting a new quarterback.
The historical context of high draft picks and their success in the NFL, with only eight out of 27 number one picks living up to the hype.
The argument that the hype around the current quarterback class is too low, given the potential impact of a great quarterback on a team's win-loss record.
The discussion of the difficulty in predicting successful quarterbacks, with many great college quarterbacks not translating their success to the NFL.
The historical analysis of the best quarterback classes and the likelihood of the current class being one of the best.
The importance of experience and the number of pass attempts for the 2021 first-round quarterbacks compared to previous classes.
The strategy for teams picking later in the draft, with the possibility of trading down or taking a risk on a quarterback.
The potential impact of drafting a quarterback on a team's season expectations, using the Bears as an example.
The debate on whether a team should draft a quarterback based on need or best player available.
The discussion on the importance of surrounding a quarterback with talented players to maximize their impact.
The argument that the Patriots should draft a quarterback due to their desperate need for one.
The potential risks and rewards for teams drafting later and the possibility of missing out on a generational talent.
The emphasis on the unpredictability of the draft and the hype cycle surrounding quarterbacks.
The conclusion that the hype around the current quarterback class might be underestimated, with the potential for more success than anticipated.
Transcripts
what is that it's not the Aro Hall Show
said that that's up here your best yeah
BR said he wouldn't help me he said
quote it's not my fault you broke
yall Weir it was I'm facts Overfield
y'all know that in everything first
things first today just for the record
New England also cares about football
yeah they don't have the number one pick
well I'm just saying if he's looking for
a place that really cares overjoy I'm
just saying wow I'm not saying anything
can I just real quick before we do that
since we just got that sound I think
he's trying I'm just going to play pop
psychologist for a moment trying to
balance between the arrogance associated
with assuming oh I'm definitely going to
Chicago and with you know the oh I want
to be there while also leaving open the
possibility that maybe New England or
somebody else makes such a great offer
the Bears move back a spot and he's not
pot committed saying this is the only so
maybe I'm being too generous there but
that's I think maybe one of the things
that happened there but go ahead sorry
we had a question it's the hype around I
know we had a question but you were too
busy you looking for yeah saw you were
like I lost it for a minute where I
could tell I can tell exactly right too
high too low or just right chef's kiss
uh somehow the hype's too low and I
think I can prove it to you brew all
right just for the context of it he is
the highest EST regarded Prospect to
come out of school since Andrew Luck
he's a better he's a higher more highly
regarded Prospect than even the prince
that is so sense luck and obviously
momes is I think the greatest player
we've ever seen he was the 10th pick he
and so far as prospects yeah how what
was the hype surrounding Andrew Luck
well the Colts without really thinking
about it that much said pton Manning get
the hell out of here two years removed
from pton being League MVP
and them going to a Super Bowl they said
we are moving on because of this guy
there was real discussion about whether
or not the Bears should move on from
Justin fields for weeks postseason up
until it became
very was injured I'm trying to he was
injured at pton missed one year but it's
nobody thought his career was over you
had a bunch of teams still going after
him the reason they got the number one
pick was because he had missed the
entire season and he was 36 he turned
out pretty good had four more you know
years went to two Super Bowls won an MVP
broke all the records for passing his
first or second year in Denver so my
point being there has been let the for a
player of this caliber walking into this
situation that the only actual critique
of him is he tries to a football
critique is he might try to hard to make
great plays which lead to the sacks and
the only other critique you hear is ah
we think he's soft cuz he cried that one
time and because he paints his nails
which to me is nonsense but I understand
I'm not NFL front offices there should
be more hype it shouldn't necessarily be
win Bama level hype but it certainly
should be right now he is being hyped
the same amount as last year's draft
class or the year no I think he's being
way hyp hyped way more than that you do
yeah where everywhere the I mean he's
the consensus number one there are a few
oh Jaden Daniels I get it try but I mean
for two years now he's been hyped like I
think it's too H and I like Caleb I like
him better than I like Bryce young you
guys know I was more high on CJ Stout so
I like him better than I like Bryce
young I think he'll be really good I
think he's got a chance but the hype is
too high have we not learned that there
is no guarantee at the quarterback
position yeah I agree when you I mean
just cuz a guy was phenomenal in college
just CU he won the Heisman means nothing
in the NFL we've seen look 27
quarterbacks since the merger all right
in the Super Bowl era 27 quarterbacks
have been taken number one in the draft
I eight of them have lived up to it and
Terry Bradshaw John Elway Troy Aman
Payton Manning Eli Manning Matt Stafford
Cam Newton I'm gon throw him in there uh
and Joe burrow if you want to throw luck
in I mean we had the injury you know he
he retired early lived up to it just had
a shortened career because of injury but
that's okay if you go luck golf do you
go go okay so eight or nine if you go
luck out of 27 and here's the other
thing Fair the top quarterbacks ever
only two of them say two of the top 10
were drafted number one ever Patrick
Mahomes you said it 10th pick CH uh uh
Tom Brady we know sixth round Aaron
Rogers 24th overall Dan Marino 27th
overall six quarterback taken in his
draft Joe Montana third round overall
third round last week of the third round
fourth quarterback ever taken Drew Brees
second round Brett Favre second round
Roger starback 10th round I know that's
way back but I'm just saying like to the
Judgment more than any other position to
to predict a great quarterback in the
NFL so I actually disagree with you on
that because I I just gave numbers so
and so I'll give the same set data point
but looked at it from a slightly
different angle which is in the last 15
from Stafford to now there have been
seven consensus number one picks so like
Bryce was not a consensus number one
there was real debate Baker was not a
consensus it wasn't a ton of debate I
don't think it was a ton of debate
people led the reporting is when the
Panthers traded up for the pick well for
the Panthers okay so my point is went
number one but there was there was not a
he was not the consensus number one the
guys that everyone knew was going number
one all of them were the best
quarterbacks in their class at a minimum
no so yes jamus and G were the best
quarterbacks in their CL but I actually
don't think either one of those guys was
a consensus number one there was real
discussion if Mariota was going to go
one there was real discussion if if wi
was going to go one Stafford was a
consensus one Sam Bradford who we can
say was disappointing for number one
pick was the best in his class cam luck
Kyler was the best in his class Joe
burrow I believe I know some people
think Herbert's better I disagree with
them and Trevor for all the criticisms
of Trevor was the best in his class the
question I would have for you brew is
based on this same thing it seems like
you believe and I'm not trying to put
words I'll tell me if I'm right that no
quarterbacks should really be hyped
going into the draft because you think
it's such a crap shoot I think it should
be tempered a bit that's all and I and I
think I think the hypest I mean and I'm
not picking on you but he's on the
mountain you know during the season and
and I think most there you weren't the
only one hyping him up people love C and
fine that's fine I have heard some
football criticism he's not an ontime
quarterback the footworks is a bit shaky
like I I there I I just think it needs
to be tempered because we've seen too
many guys that were great in col Trevor
the verdict still out on Trevor I mean
is he going to really be all that I'm
not saying he won't but the verdict
still out but so the the re oh go ahead
wildad the reason that I think the I
said the other day and yesterday that I
think the Bears are going to win 10 plus
games and that right now is a minority
opinion that to me speaks to the hype
being too low because excellent
quarterbacks the when they come in
Impact winning by at least two games
usually three or four Russ Russell
Wilson who had a great rookie they went
up plus four wins Andrew Luck they went
up plus n wins RG3 they went up plus
five wins CJ they went up plus seven
Baker Trevor it did not happen you were
right and they fired the
coach Tyler improved the the Cardinals
record by two and a half wins CU they
got a tie Baker by seven wins like the
idea to not expect that if I guess my
point is the fact that the bearss are
not expected to be fighting for the
playoffs means I think Caleb is being
underrated because they were a seven-
win team a year ago that we all think
added Talent this off season and is
getting better quarterback so go ahead
the question I would have for you is and
the reason
why I think your best take is like the
Bears aren't act don't actually didn't
actually earn the number one Pi that's
not even my take that's just a fact but
no one's saying it's Carolina's pick
yeah it's like if you're like I don't
think he would take Carolina the
playoffs this year but here's the
question do you I think it's harder to
get from 7 to 10 10 then if you were a
Carolina to go from did they have one
win or two wins to go to go from two to
five yeah but so Russ took that team to
the playoffs luck took him to the
playoffs RG3 took him to the playoffs CJ
stra took him to the playoffs Baker took
over a team that was 1 and 31 its
previous two years and they went seven
eight and one you know what I but it's
easy to get I think it's not that hard
to get to five win six win but I think
it's good yeah exactly hard to get from
mediocre to good which is why I just
mentioned four quarterbacks in a row
that took their teams to the playoffs as
rookies that took them from mediocre or
awful to good the Seahawks weren't awful
they were mediocre Russ made them better
the Cults were obviously awful luck got
him to 11 wins the Washington was a six
win team or a five- win team RG3 got
double digits the Texans were terrible
and it was it was the coach and Will
Anderson and you know it was a lot that
came in that took him over the top yeah
okay uh Joel clatt released his mock
draft on sports.com which has six
quarterbacks going in the first round
Caleb to the Bears Drake to DC Jaden
Daniels to the Patriots JJ to the
Vikings Bo to Denver and then penx to
the Dolphins is what might be you know
the end of TW is rain maybe I don't know
need a backup so Brew what do you think
are realistic expectations for this QB
class maybe one quarterbacks great two
are good you know and then several are
bust and backups that would be good by
the way right that if you if you are
you're saying three quarterbacks are
good plus that would be a great class
that would be a great that would a
phenomenal class cuz I'm I'm looking at
and I brought up the history earlier
generally they're about five or six
great quarterbacks great like Hall of
Fame caliber in a decade all right and
and so maybe I'm arguing against what I
just said we already got several how
many everybody can't be great like every
quarterback is not going to be great
every team's not going to have a great
quarterback we got SE we the obviously
momes Lamar Joe burrow Josh Allen are
great and then you got CJ stra looks
like he's on that path jayen I get it he
was down but possibly Jaylen Justin
Herbert Dak I mean Tua perie like you
can go on and on Stafford I didn't even
me like every how many great
quarterbacks are there going no I got
Trevor down but you're Trevor Jordan
love
every team's not going to have a great
quarterback so I so I so it could be all
of them don't pan out so I looked at it
a little historically but a little
differ which is what are the best
classes and so what do we know the high
water mark is so everyone points to 83
cuz 83 you had lway Kelly and Marino but
to that that's great but to Bru point
you also had blackl een and kenel Bryan
I know kenel Bryan made a couple Pro
bowls ton or Tony e made a couple one of
the two of them made a couple Pro bowls
my AP but you had three amazing
quarterbacks in it the the worry is
probably that it's more like 99 much
less 2021 99 couch Donovan who was
really good Achilles Smith injuries
Dante call Pepper who looked like he was
going to be good injuries and then Cade
MCN now nothing and then O So 04 it's
either 83 or 04 is the best quarterback
classes ever Eli Rivers Big Ben with JP
lman as the other for first rounder and
then sneaky one to keep your eye on is
2020
2020 first round quarterbacks Joe burrow
Justin Herbert Tua Jordan love so that's
like the most optimistic one where it's
like oh you might have four long-term
starters there so what I think is most
likely is the most realistically
optimistic Wilds is two awesome
quarterbacks okay one more long-term
starter and then two guys that don't
pound out that's the best case the worst
case is what we just saw in 2021 where
four objectively fail and there's
another one in Trevor that I
theage you guys
say probably what's most realistic is
one very good or great one that's
probably I I think maybe most realistic
Josh figured this out okay this has been
a big mystery and then Josh just came
into did yeah the conference room he's
like by the way I figured this out
thanks Josh we should probably have a
press conference or something so he did
uh I labeled this just as like
experience makes a difference 20121
first round quarterbacks again this was
a little bit of covid year which hurt uh
Trey Lance obviously uh Trevor is the
only guy there with over 900 pass
attempts now maybe it's just like you
had starters in front of you obviously
uh Mack was behind Tua and Jaylen at one
point Trey just didn't play that whole
his whole senior year uh Zach played two
years Justin transferred and played a
little bit now this class in comparison
you've got five guys it's too much over
a thousand B Knicks almost has
2,000 pass attemp too much right and
pedex has been there for a long time too
but but it's the experience when guys
come in there Kenny piy had experience
yeah it's also the concern know I just
your graphic but I'm like
need
2000 2000 is too much and it does and it
does make you worried to me at least
that whatever they're closer to a
finished product than normally you would
like like the same age as Jaylen her
he's like a year younger than Jaylen
right that's a good that's why I
wouldn't that Shawn pyton draft him
he'll be the next great quarterback for
the Broncos do it uh but the so this is
why I actually look at this conversation
as a Patriots conversation a Vikings
conversation a Broncos a Raiders
conversation because every team other
than the Bears and I'll say Washington
because we've had a handful of classes
that have had two awesome quarterbacks
yes um you know what I mean it's not
that are hoping and praying for one of
two outcomes either that this actually
is going to be in in the argument for
greatest quarterback class ever seems
unlikely or that one of the teams in
front of them makes a mistake they are
at the mercy of that if your plan is I
am taking the third fourth or fifth
quarterback off the board then you in
the first round not like you know what I
mean not a flyer late round then the
only way there's only two ways for that
to work out for you way one you happen
to do that in what will go down as one
of if not the greatest quarterback class
ever or the team in Fr one or two of the
teams in front of you picked the wrong
guy it you are not really in control of
your destiny in that regard but when we
look at the history it's worked out a
lot where a guy that was picked late as
I said earlier becomes a great
quarterback and it it may not let's say
Caleb doesn't pan out it's not a mistake
if Chicago takes him it's just I mean
man this guy came out of no where and in
the fourth round it was great so but brw
but I'm not talking listen like a lot of
people are throwing out I'm not saying I
am but Spencer Rattler a lot of people
are starting to say sure and I don't
mind taking you know what I mean
throwing a dart so to speak on a mid-
round pick but even on your list a lot
of those guys who their their actual
draft number sounds late they were one
of the first two quarterbacks off the
board Mahomes drafted 10th but he was
the second quarterback taken Rogers was
drafted 24th you said he was the second
back taken like so it's it's not just
that guy slip it's that teams that
wanted a quarterback that had the pick
in front of you misevaluated it that's
what would make me nervous I'm nervous
BR of like for the Patriots if Marvin
Harrison Jr is on the board he's
obviously going to be great I think
everyone is it's can't miss you rarely
see someone like well he you know I
don't know a lot of people are now
saying neighbors is going to go ahead of
him content farming what it's
overthinking cont go ahead it is a a
little bit like going out to to eat when
you're like absolutely starving and
ordering the ravioli no order but it's
like the Patriots are starving for a
quarterback like this is it what a good
coincidence we got our guy and we really
needed our guy like it's versus we're
like well Lamar went super late well the
Ravens didn't necessarily need Lamar the
Chiefs I know I know they loved Mahomes
they didn't need Lamar they weren't
desperate yeah we are desper we
literally shout out to Billy zappy but
we don't really have a qb1 and we want a
qb1 so now we're like we're taking him
whether or not Marv and Harrison is the
guaranteed best player in the draft but
here's the thing if if you get Harrison
and you got nobody to really get him the
ball how is that going to help well I
don't know I mean the the Niners made a
Super Bowl with it you know what I mean
they they they they built an All-Star
team no and just believe they could plug
in a quack Marvin Harrison by himself is
not an allar and Brock pie is on time
like he's a great on time passer he
smart so I think it would be
categorically the wrong decision for the
Patriots to stay at three and not take a
quarterback if they are not going to
take a quarterback I think it is
mandatory that you take advantage of the
fact that another team would and you
recoup Surplus draft capital for that
you know what I mean so I don't think
it's I think you can make the argument
that the Patriots should move back I
think you can make the argument
obviously the Patriots should take a
quarterback I don't think you can make
the argument that the Patriots should
stand Pat in a draft where people think
quarterbacks might go one two three four
and not take a quarterback 365 days
we're going to be here and like oh
generational quarterback oh we haven't
seen a quarterback like this
guy and I know it's not every year
that's an overstatement cuz what 2022
Malik Willis Bailey's at that wasn't a
huge picket they didn't overstate those
guys greatness in the draft but
generally speaking almost every year it
feels like we're hyping all these
quarterbacks see so and only one or two
is paying out so I think we are talking
a lot about them I feel just I do feel
like the conversation surrounding last
year's class was different than this
conversation as far as at the very top I
don't think even though I think Caleb is
you think Bryce got more hype than
no no no no I no the other way I do
think Caleb that almost hurts your take
cuz CJ's probably better than all these
guys right because I think last year it
was not a consensus opinion who the best
player in that class was this year it is
this year everyone knows it's Caleb last
year there was real debate among smart
people Brew was one of them saying I
would take this guy number one I said ah
Anthony Richardson seems like the
biggest strongest fastest guy I'd take a
shot on him and we'll see the cas called
the Bears right now and say hey you want
to trade no way CJ that's what I'm
saying no way you wouldn't would you you
wouldn't do that if you were running the
Texans would you give up CJ for the
number one pick I think Nei I think both
teams would say no I think both teams
would say no I think both teams would
say no we're good yeah okay coming up
next oh Chicago Aaron
Rogers thanks for watching subscribe
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