This Storm Just Got Worse…

one of the worst storms of 2024 is

coming to the United States today and

this could bring a significant threat

for long track and strong tornadoes

across the Central and Southern Plains

where a tornado outbreak is imminent the

Storm Prediction Center has mentioned

that a high risk for severe weather

could be issued later today for the

tornado threat across parts of Kansas

and Oklahoma so in today's forecast

we're going to break down exactly what

this means for your area and where the

greatest chance for tornadoes will be

and as well as the damaging wind and

hail risk that are not being talked

about enough so let's begin with what

the risk is for today across the United

States and we're going to begin with the

Great Plains that is where we do already

have a moderate risk for severe weather

which includes a large chunk of Oklahoma

back into Southern Kansas where the

chance for strong and longrack tornadoes

will exist you need to make sure that

you have a tornado action plan in place

today have multiple ways to receive

alerts and we will be live later today

here on YouTube so make sure that you're

subscribed to the channel outside of

this area we do have an enhanced risk

that goes from Southeastern parts of

Nebraska back into Western Missouri and

even back into very far Northern parts

of Texas and a slight and marginal

threat that go from South Dakota back

through Texas and as far east as

Illinois which the majority of storms at

hypen over here later tonight will be

damaging wind and maybe a couple tornado

producers so make sure that you're

staying Vigilant there so here is one of

the greatest concerns for today which is

going to be the hail threat we currently

do have a large area that we're watching

for significant hail this hatched area

does represent at least a 10% chance

within a 25m radius of significant hail

greater than 2 in in diameter the

maximum Hailstone size that I have

forecasted for today is the size of

grapefruits so make sure that you're

protecting your vehicle do not leave

that outside today it is not worth it

especially with How much hail that could

come out of some of these storms now the

good news about today for Oklahoma is

that these storms are going to be very

discret meaning only a couple of them or

maybe a few of them will be ongoing the

bad news is any of the storms that are

discreet are going to almost definitely

produce severe weather including

significant tornadoes very large hail

and as well as damaging winds the

tornado threat right now is hatched

anywhere from northern Kansas back into

even very far Northern Texas including

areas near witcha Falls where strong and

long track tornadoes will be a

possibility later this afternoon into

the evening hour so make sure that

you're staying very Vigilant and being

weather aware then later tonight this

will turn into mostly a line of storms

producing damaging winds large hail and

maybe even a few more tornadoes across a

large chunk of the central plains any of

this will mostly happen after sunset for

the damaging wind threat that could be

very significant across Kansas and even

back into Western Missouri where

damaging winds as high as 80 mph will be

a possibilities with all that being said

make sure that you are subscribed to the

channel We'll Be Live later today

that'll be one way that you can receive

alerts in addition to that make sure you

have your mobile device handy any

weather radio's ready have flashlights

on hand in case you do lose power later

today as things could get a little bit

bumpy as we go into the afternoon hours

before we go into the timing I do want

to go over the synoptic setup for this

event as we go into today and tomorrow

because I think it paints a perfect

picture for what we're going to be

seeing for both today and tomorrow in

terms of severe weather so let's begin

with the jet stream this gives us an

idea of the weather patterns that are

happening across the United States and

we are going to have a negatively tilted

trough for today and as well as going

into early tomorrow which is why we're

going to see a big increase in terms of

severe weather you might be wondering

what does a negatively tilted trough

even do essentially what it does is it

creates a lot of spin throughout the

atmosphere especially in the mid topper

levels in addition to that we get a

strong southerly pole and any negatively

tilted trough usually does bring some

sort of severe weather aspect in a lot

of cases we do see severe weather

outbreaks that's why this is so

important for today and even into early

tomorrow morning so just keep that in

mind uh once again it is a very potent

trough and it's going to be a very

strong low pressure system the good news

is is as we go into Tuesday this will

weaken and broaden out meaning that the

Midwest will not see a whole lot of

severe weather it should be a pretty low

threat with just some damaging winds

back over in areas like the Ohio Valley

and maybe even down into the Mississippi

Valley we could see some severe weather

but the overall concern is going to be

pretty much lower than what we're

talking about today and then once we

eventually go into Wednesday we are

going to have a low pressure system near

the surface develop again in the central

plains and I do think on Wednesday we

are going to have another significant in

severe weather outbreak it could be very

similar if not maybe even a bit worse

than what we are talking about for today

but obviously that is to be determined

depending on how today goes it might be

a little bit different here are the

photographs as well giving you an idea

of about the spin across the atmosphere

from the low levels all the way up into

the upper atmosphere and notice these

photographs across parts of Southern

Kansas and Oklahoma there's a lot of

twirl to them a lot of Spin and what

that means is that we are going to have

a lot of spin in the atmosphere meaning

that that tornado risk is going to be

much more elevated because of all the

spin in the atmosphere it will not take

much for there to be a tornado today

especially with how strong the winds are

across the entire atmosphere from the

surface all the way back through the

upper level so that's why that's also

very important and then the significant

tornado parameter values do increase as

we go into the afternoon especially

across Kansas and they'll start to

increase in Oklahoma as we get closer to

4 to 5:00 notice those values go upwards

of five six and even seven in some spots

so it's going to get very elevated

across Oklahoma meaning that this

tornado risk is really going to start to

ramp up now I don't want you to look too

far down to the South because the cap

will be in place across most of Texas

and even right along the Red River and

there might be one or two storms that

sneak in there try to pose a threat in

Oklahoma in terms of severe weather

threat but I think overall that chance

is very low I think the majority of the

storms that fire up today will be from

Nebraska back into parts of Oklahoma

this should be the starting point for

most storms and then eventually they'll

start to track to the east maybe even a

bit further back here to the West we

could get a couple storms earlier in the

day today now let's go through the

timing and we will begin with 12:00

where a few storms will start to fire up

right across the Nebraska and Kansas

border where the main concern is going

to be large hail and damaging winds but

as we get closer to 2 to 3:00 I do think

that tornado risk begins to increase

with this activity so we might be live

as early as 2 to 3:00 so make sure that

you're subscribe to the channel and

click the Bell icon down below so you're

notified when we do go live once we get

closer to 4 to 5:00 those storms

continue to evolve and move to the east

producing mostly a damaging wind threat

but once again anything that is a little

bit more semi discreet could produce a

tornado threat and also anything even

embedded in this cluster of storms

will'll also have the chance to produce

a couple of tornadoes once we get closer

to 6 7 and 8:00 tonight we'll be

watching a couple of different areas for

discret supercells which are the ones

that are going to produce the most

significant longrack and strong tornado

threat across anywhere in Oklahoma and

Kansas and that would be where we're

watching for that development right here

in western parts of Kansas which again

that could be anywhere in this area for

the record not just that Circle that I

drew before and also even part across

parts of Central Kansas back over right

in front of the line of storms this

another area that I would be watching

for very very closely and then once we

get closer to 7 8 9:00 those storms

continue to move East and we'll continue

to watch multiple storms across parts of

Oklahoma producing the tornado threat

now don't really ignore this area I know

it doesn't show any storms on the future

radar but there is a chance that we

could see one or two discret cells even

in parts of central Oklahoma that

produce a strong Andor long trck tornado

threat so don't rule out that area make

sure you're staying Vigilant and have

multiple ways to receive alerts by

around 10 to 11 o'clock tonight those

storms continue to move Eastbound And by

midnight most of the storms are still

ongoing across parts of Oklahoma with

mostly a hail wind and maybe a couple

tornadoes still being possible and then

after midnight most of these storms are

damaging wind producers with a couple

more tornadoes being possible across

Southern Iowa parts of Missouri and even

Northwest Arkansas and perhaps even into

Eastern okoklahoma

so stay very weather aware across those

areas and again we'll be live tonight so

make sure that you're subscrib to the

channel back over in Iowa and Illinois

we'll have that line of storms moving

through early tomorrow morning which

will produce the threat for damaging

winds and perhaps maybe a brief tornado

or two it will weaken as we go late into

the morning but we're going to have

another explosion of thunderstorms

tomorrow afternoon across parts of the

Ohio Valley overall I think this threat

of severe weather is going to be pretty

low to medium I don't think we're going

to have anything too too significant

when it comes to the tornado threat but

I do think large hail damaging winds and

a few tornadoes will be possible I just

don't think it's going to be nearly as

significant as today I would still stay

weather aware in case anything does get

a little bit dicey we'll probably also

be live tomorrow so make sure that

you're subscribed to the channel now as

we go into Wednesday I think things do

become a little bit more concerning in

terms of the tornado threat notice the

significant tornado parameter values as

we go into Wednesday afternoon and

evening they get quite High across parts

of Arkansas Illinois eastern Missouri

and even back into Kentucky and I do

think we are going to get a more

significant tornado threat as we go into

Wednesday in the late afternoon through

the evening and perhaps even into the

overnight hours where we could end up

seeing a nocturnal tornado threat so uh

again details on this still remain a

little bit uncertain so stay tuned we'll

have another update video for this once

we get closer and once things do become

a bit more certain if we do not have an

update video we'll be live on Tuesday

with an update for you more than likely

so just make sure you're subscribe to

the channel and we'll keep you posted

with the latest thank you so much for

watching make sure hit the like button

down below and subscribe if you've not

already