This Storm Just Got Worse…

Max Velocity - Severe Weather Center
6 May 202409:31

Summary

TLDRThe United States, particularly the Central and Southern Plains, is bracing for one of the worst storms of 2024, with a high risk of long-track and strong tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has warned of severe weather, particularly for Kansas and Oklahoma, where a tornado outbreak is imminent. The forecast highlights a significant hail threat, with the potential for hailstones the size of grapefruits, and damaging winds that could reach up to 80 mph in some areas. The severe weather is expected to peak in the afternoon and continue into the evening, with a shift towards a line of storms producing further hazards later at night. The weather patterns, influenced by a negatively tilted trough and strong low-pressure systems, suggest a potent storm system that will weaken by Tuesday but could lead to another significant severe weather outbreak on Wednesday. Residents are advised to stay vigilant, prepare for the storm, and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

Takeaways

  • ⚠️ One of the worst storms of 2024 is approaching the United States, posing a significant threat for long-track and strong tornadoes across the Central and Southern Plains.
  • 🌪 The Storm Prediction Center has mentioned that a high risk for severe weather could be issued for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, with an imminent tornado outbreak.
  • 📢 Residents in the affected areas should have a tornado action plan in place and multiple ways to receive alerts.
  • 🌡️ The risk includes not only tornadoes but also damaging winds and hail, with the potential for hailstones the size of grapefruits.
  • 🚗 It is advised to protect vehicles from hail and not to leave them outside, as the storms could produce significant hail.
  • 🌦️ The storms are expected to be discrete, meaning only a few at a time, but those that do form are likely to produce severe weather.
  • 📍 The greatest tornado threat is expected from northern Kansas to far Northern Texas, including areas near Wichita Falls.
  • 🌃 Later in the evening, the storm threat will shift towards damaging winds and large hail, with the potential for tornadoes continuing into the night after sunset.
  • 📈 The significant tornado parameter values are expected to increase as the day progresses, particularly in the afternoon across Kansas and Oklahoma.
  • 📅 For the following days, the severe weather threat is anticipated to decrease on Tuesday but may rise again on Wednesday with another potential severe weather outbreak.
  • 🔔 Staying subscribed to the channel and having multiple alert systems in place is crucial for receiving timely weather updates and alerts.

Q & A

  • What type of severe weather is expected across the Central and Southern Plains?

    -A significant threat for long track and strong tornadoes is expected, with a high risk for severe weather including damaging winds and hail.

  • Which states are at the highest risk for tornadoes according to the Storm Prediction Center?

    -Kansas and Oklahoma are at the highest risk for tornadoes, with a potential high risk for severe weather to be issued.

  • What is the greatest concern for the day in terms of weather?

    -The greatest concern is the hail threat, with a forecasted maximum hailstone size of grapefruits, indicating the need for vehicle protection.

  • What should residents do to prepare for the severe weather?

    -Residents should have a tornado action plan in place, multiple ways to receive alerts, and ensure they have flashlights and mobile devices ready in case of power loss.

  • What is the expected timeline for the storms and tornadoes?

    -Storms are expected to start around noon, with the tornado risk increasing by 2 to 3 PM. The most significant tornado threat is anticipated for the late afternoon into the evening hours.

  • What is the role of the jet stream in the development of severe weather?

    -The jet stream, with a negatively tilted trough, creates a lot of spin throughout the atmosphere, particularly in the mid to upper levels, contributing to the severe weather and tornado potential.

  • How does the weather forecast change as we go into Tuesday?

    -The severe weather threat is expected to weaken and broaden out, with the Midwest seeing less severe weather and a lower threat of tornadoes but some damaging winds.

  • What is the potential for severe weather on Wednesday?

    -Wednesday could see another significant severe weather outbreak, potentially similar or worse than Tuesday, with a heightened tornado threat in the late afternoon through the evening.

  • What are 'discrete storms' and why are they concerning?

    -Discrete storms are individual storms that are not part of a larger storm system. They are concerning because they can produce severe weather, including significant tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

  • What is the significance of the atmospheric spin in the forecast?

    -The atmospheric spin, or 'twirl,' indicates a higher tornado risk because it suggests there is a lot of rotation in the atmosphere that can contribute to tornado formation.

  • How can people stay informed about the severe weather and receive alerts?

    -People can stay informed by subscribing to the YouTube channel for live updates, having mobile devices and weather radios ready, and being vigilant with multiple ways to receive alerts.

Outlines

00:00

🌪️ Severe Weather and Tornado Threat for Central and Southern Plains

The video script discusses an impending severe storm system in the United States for the year 2024, with a high risk of long-track and strong tornadoes expected across the Central and Southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center warns of a potential tornado outbreak, particularly in regions of Kansas and Oklahoma. The forecast emphasizes the need for a tornado action plan and multiple alert reception methods. A moderate risk for severe weather is already present in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas, with an enhanced risk stretching from Southeastern Nebraska to Western Missouri and Northern Texas. The script also highlights a significant hail threat, with a 10% chance of hailstones larger than 2 inches in diameter, and advises protecting vehicles from potential damage. The tornado threat is particularly noted from Northern Kansas to far Northern Texas, including areas near Wichita Falls. The forecast outlines a transition to a line of storms later in the evening, posing a significant damaging wind threat across Kansas and Western Missouri, with winds potentially reaching 80 mph. The synoptic setup, including a negatively tilted trough and strong southerly pole, is expected to contribute to the severe weather. The video promises live updates and alerts on YouTube, urging viewers to subscribe for the latest information.

05:01

⏱️ Timing and Development of Storms with Tornado and Hail Threats

The second paragraph delves into the timing and progression of the severe weather events. It begins by noting that storms may initiate around the Nebraska and Kansas border, with large hail and damaging winds as primary concerns. As the afternoon progresses, particularly around 2 to 3 PM, the risk of tornadoes is expected to escalate. The video channel plans to go live during this period to provide updates. By 4 to 5 PM, storms are predicted to grow向东 (to the east), with discrete supercells posing the most significant threat for long-track and strong tornadoes, particularly in western parts of Kansas and central Oklahoma. The paragraph advises viewers to stay vigilant, especially in central Oklahoma where discrete cells could produce tornadoes despite not being highlighted on future radar. By 10 to 11 PM, the storms are anticipated to continue moving eastward, and by midnight, they should still be active across Oklahoma with a lingering risk of hail, wind, and tornadoes. The guidance suggests that most storms will transition to damaging wind producers by the early hours, with a possibility of more tornadoes across Southern Iowa, Missouri, and Northwest Arkansas. The video concludes with a reminder to subscribe for live updates and a like for the content, and it briefly touches upon the potential for another round of severe weather the following afternoon across the Ohio Valley, with large hail and damaging winds but a lower tornado threat compared to the current day.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Storms

Storms are a meteorological phenomenon characterized by strong winds, rain, thunder, lightning, and sometimes snow or hail. In the context of the video, it refers to severe weather events that are expected to impact the United States, particularly the Central and Southern Plains, with a significant threat of tornadoes and other hazardous conditions.

💡Tornadoes

Tornadoes are violent and destructive columns of air that extend from a thunderstorm to the ground. They are a major concern in the video as the Storm Prediction Center has indicated an imminent tornado outbreak across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. The video discusses the risk and preparation necessary for these potentially devastating weather events.

💡Severe Weather

Severe weather refers to any potentially hazardous atmospheric condition that could result in damage, injury, or loss of life. The video script highlights the high risk for severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail, across various regions of the United States.

💡Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center is an organization that issues weather watches and warnings for severe weather events in the United States. In the video, it is mentioned as the source of the high risk for severe weather and potential tornado outbreaks, emphasizing the importance of their forecasts in preparing for and responding to these events.

💡Hail

Hail is a form of solid precipitation that consists of balls or irregular lumps of ice, which can cause significant damage to property and vehicles. The video script discusses the risk of hail, with a significant hail threat indicated by a 10% chance within a 25-mile radius, and the potential for hailstones the size of grapefruits.

💡Jet Stream

The jet stream is a high-altitude, narrow air current that influences weather patterns. In the video, the negatively tilted trough in the jet stream is described as a contributing factor to the severe weather and tornado risk, as it creates a lot of spin in the atmosphere, particularly in the mid to upper levels.

💡Tornado Action Plan

A tornado action plan is a preparedness strategy that individuals and communities can follow to minimize the risk and impact of a tornado. The video emphasizes the importance of having a tornado action plan in place, especially for those living in areas with a moderate to high risk of tornadoes.

💡Synoptic Setup

The synoptic setup refers to the large-scale weather patterns that influence the weather conditions over a wide area. In the video, the term is used to describe the atmospheric conditions that are expected to lead to severe weather and tornadoes, including a negatively tilted trough and strong low-pressure systems.

💡Damage Potential

Damage potential refers to the likelihood and severity of damage that could be caused by a weather event. The video discusses the potential for significant damage from tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, highlighting the need for vigilance and preparedness.

💡Alerts

Alerts are official notifications issued to warn the public about imminent severe weather or other emergencies. The video script encourages viewers to have multiple ways to receive alerts, such as through a subscribed YouTube channel, mobile devices, or weather radios, to stay informed and respond appropriately to the threat of severe weather.

💡Vigilance

Vigilance refers to the state of being carefully watchful or fully alert, especially in order to avoid potential danger. In the context of the video, it is a call to action for viewers to stay aware of the weather conditions and be prepared to act in response to severe weather alerts and forecasts.

Highlights

One of the worst storms of 2024 is approaching the United States, bringing a significant threat for long-track and strong tornadoes across the Central and Southern Plains.

The Storm Prediction Center has mentioned a high risk for severe weather, which could be issued later today for the tornado threat across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

A tornado action plan should be in place for residents in at-risk areas, with multiple ways to receive alerts.

An enhanced risk for severe weather extends from Southeastern Nebraska to Western Missouri and as far north as parts of Texas.

Significant hail, larger than golf balls and up to the size of grapefruits, is forecasted, posing a risk to vehicles and property.

Discrete storms are expected to be few but potentially severe, including the possibility of significant tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

The tornado threat is particularly high from northern Kansas to far Northern Texas, including areas near Wichita Falls.

After sunset, a line of storms is expected to produce damaging winds, large hail, and possibly more tornadoes across the central plains.

A negatively tilted trough in the jet stream is contributing to the severe weather, with a strong southerly pole and increased atmospheric spin.

The severe weather threat is expected to decrease by Tuesday as the trough weakens, but another outbreak may occur on Wednesday.

The tornado parameter values are increasing, indicating a higher risk for tornadoes, especially in the afternoon across Kansas and Oklahoma.

By 12:00, storms with the potential for large hail and damaging winds may begin near the Nebraska and Kansas border.

Around 2 to 3:00 PM, the tornado risk is expected to increase, with live updates provided on the YouTube channel.

From 4 to 5:00 PM, the storms are anticipated to evolve and move eastward, with a focus on areas in western and central Kansas for severe weather.

By 10 to 11:00 PM, storms will continue eastward, with a hail and wind threat, and a potential for tornadoes in Oklahoma.

After midnight, the storms are expected to weaken but still pose a threat for damaging winds and tornadoes across Southern Iowa, Missouri, and Arkansas.

On Wednesday, there is a concern for a more significant tornado threat, particularly in the late afternoon and evening across Arkansas, Illinois, eastern Missouri, and Kentucky.

Subscribers to the YouTube channel will receive live updates and alerts for the severe weather events.

Transcripts

00:00

one of the worst storms of 2024 is

00:02

coming to the United States today and

00:05

this could bring a significant threat

00:07

for long track and strong tornadoes

00:09

across the Central and Southern Plains

00:11

where a tornado outbreak is imminent the

00:13

Storm Prediction Center has mentioned

00:15

that a high risk for severe weather

00:17

could be issued later today for the

00:19

tornado threat across parts of Kansas

00:21

and Oklahoma so in today's forecast

00:23

we're going to break down exactly what

00:25

this means for your area and where the

00:27

greatest chance for tornadoes will be

00:29

and as well as the damaging wind and

00:31

hail risk that are not being talked

00:32

about enough so let's begin with what

00:34

the risk is for today across the United

00:36

States and we're going to begin with the

00:38

Great Plains that is where we do already

00:40

have a moderate risk for severe weather

00:43

which includes a large chunk of Oklahoma

00:45

back into Southern Kansas where the

00:47

chance for strong and longrack tornadoes

00:50

will exist you need to make sure that

00:51

you have a tornado action plan in place

00:53

today have multiple ways to receive

00:55

alerts and we will be live later today

00:57

here on YouTube so make sure that you're

00:58

subscribed to the channel outside of

01:00

this area we do have an enhanced risk

01:01

that goes from Southeastern parts of

01:03

Nebraska back into Western Missouri and

01:06

even back into very far Northern parts

01:08

of Texas and a slight and marginal

01:09

threat that go from South Dakota back

01:11

through Texas and as far east as

01:13

Illinois which the majority of storms at

01:15

hypen over here later tonight will be

01:18

damaging wind and maybe a couple tornado

01:20

producers so make sure that you're

01:21

staying Vigilant there so here is one of

01:23

the greatest concerns for today which is

01:25

going to be the hail threat we currently

01:27

do have a large area that we're watching

01:29

for significant hail this hatched area

01:31

does represent at least a 10% chance

01:33

within a 25m radius of significant hail

01:36

greater than 2 in in diameter the

01:38

maximum Hailstone size that I have

01:40

forecasted for today is the size of

01:42

grapefruits so make sure that you're

01:44

protecting your vehicle do not leave

01:45

that outside today it is not worth it

01:47

especially with How much hail that could

01:49

come out of some of these storms now the

01:50

good news about today for Oklahoma is

01:52

that these storms are going to be very

01:54

discret meaning only a couple of them or

01:56

maybe a few of them will be ongoing the

01:58

bad news is any of the storms that are

02:00

discreet are going to almost definitely

02:02

produce severe weather including

02:04

significant tornadoes very large hail

02:06

and as well as damaging winds the

02:08

tornado threat right now is hatched

02:10

anywhere from northern Kansas back into

02:12

even very far Northern Texas including

02:15

areas near witcha Falls where strong and

02:17

long track tornadoes will be a

02:19

possibility later this afternoon into

02:21

the evening hour so make sure that

02:23

you're staying very Vigilant and being

02:24

weather aware then later tonight this

02:26

will turn into mostly a line of storms

02:28

producing damaging winds large hail and

02:30

maybe even a few more tornadoes across a

02:32

large chunk of the central plains any of

02:34

this will mostly happen after sunset for

02:36

the damaging wind threat that could be

02:38

very significant across Kansas and even

02:41

back into Western Missouri where

02:42

damaging winds as high as 80 mph will be

02:45

a possibilities with all that being said

02:47

make sure that you are subscribed to the

02:49

channel We'll Be Live later today

02:51

that'll be one way that you can receive

02:52

alerts in addition to that make sure you

02:54

have your mobile device handy any

02:56

weather radio's ready have flashlights

02:58

on hand in case you do lose power later

02:59

today as things could get a little bit

03:01

bumpy as we go into the afternoon hours

03:03

before we go into the timing I do want

03:05

to go over the synoptic setup for this

03:07

event as we go into today and tomorrow

03:09

because I think it paints a perfect

03:11

picture for what we're going to be

03:12

seeing for both today and tomorrow in

03:14

terms of severe weather so let's begin

03:16

with the jet stream this gives us an

03:17

idea of the weather patterns that are

03:19

happening across the United States and

03:21

we are going to have a negatively tilted

03:23

trough for today and as well as going

03:25

into early tomorrow which is why we're

03:27

going to see a big increase in terms of

03:30

severe weather you might be wondering

03:31

what does a negatively tilted trough

03:33

even do essentially what it does is it

03:35

creates a lot of spin throughout the

03:37

atmosphere especially in the mid topper

03:39

levels in addition to that we get a

03:40

strong southerly pole and any negatively

03:43

tilted trough usually does bring some

03:45

sort of severe weather aspect in a lot

03:47

of cases we do see severe weather

03:49

outbreaks that's why this is so

03:51

important for today and even into early

03:53

tomorrow morning so just keep that in

03:54

mind uh once again it is a very potent

03:56

trough and it's going to be a very

03:58

strong low pressure system the good news

04:00

is is as we go into Tuesday this will

04:02

weaken and broaden out meaning that the

04:04

Midwest will not see a whole lot of

04:06

severe weather it should be a pretty low

04:08

threat with just some damaging winds

04:09

back over in areas like the Ohio Valley

04:11

and maybe even down into the Mississippi

04:13

Valley we could see some severe weather

04:15

but the overall concern is going to be

04:17

pretty much lower than what we're

04:18

talking about today and then once we

04:20

eventually go into Wednesday we are

04:22

going to have a low pressure system near

04:23

the surface develop again in the central

04:26

plains and I do think on Wednesday we

04:28

are going to have another significant in

04:29

severe weather outbreak it could be very

04:31

similar if not maybe even a bit worse

04:33

than what we are talking about for today

04:35

but obviously that is to be determined

04:37

depending on how today goes it might be

04:38

a little bit different here are the

04:40

photographs as well giving you an idea

04:41

of about the spin across the atmosphere

04:43

from the low levels all the way up into

04:45

the upper atmosphere and notice these

04:47

photographs across parts of Southern

04:49

Kansas and Oklahoma there's a lot of

04:51

twirl to them a lot of Spin and what

04:52

that means is that we are going to have

04:54

a lot of spin in the atmosphere meaning

04:56

that that tornado risk is going to be

04:58

much more elevated because of all the

05:00

spin in the atmosphere it will not take

05:02

much for there to be a tornado today

05:04

especially with how strong the winds are

05:06

across the entire atmosphere from the

05:08

surface all the way back through the

05:09

upper level so that's why that's also

05:11

very important and then the significant

05:12

tornado parameter values do increase as

05:14

we go into the afternoon especially

05:16

across Kansas and they'll start to

05:18

increase in Oklahoma as we get closer to

05:20

4 to 5:00 notice those values go upwards

05:23

of five six and even seven in some spots

05:26

so it's going to get very elevated

05:28

across Oklahoma meaning that this

05:29

tornado risk is really going to start to

05:31

ramp up now I don't want you to look too

05:33

far down to the South because the cap

05:35

will be in place across most of Texas

05:37

and even right along the Red River and

05:39

there might be one or two storms that

05:41

sneak in there try to pose a threat in

05:43

Oklahoma in terms of severe weather

05:44

threat but I think overall that chance

05:46

is very low I think the majority of the

05:48

storms that fire up today will be from

05:50

Nebraska back into parts of Oklahoma

05:52

this should be the starting point for

05:54

most storms and then eventually they'll

05:55

start to track to the east maybe even a

05:57

bit further back here to the West we

05:59

could get a couple storms earlier in the

06:01

day today now let's go through the

06:03

timing and we will begin with 12:00

06:05

where a few storms will start to fire up

06:07

right across the Nebraska and Kansas

06:09

border where the main concern is going

06:11

to be large hail and damaging winds but

06:13

as we get closer to 2 to 3:00 I do think

06:15

that tornado risk begins to increase

06:17

with this activity so we might be live

06:19

as early as 2 to 3:00 so make sure that

06:21

you're subscribe to the channel and

06:22

click the Bell icon down below so you're

06:24

notified when we do go live once we get

06:26

closer to 4 to 5:00 those storms

06:28

continue to evolve and move to the east

06:30

producing mostly a damaging wind threat

06:32

but once again anything that is a little

06:33

bit more semi discreet could produce a

06:35

tornado threat and also anything even

06:37

embedded in this cluster of storms

06:39

will'll also have the chance to produce

06:40

a couple of tornadoes once we get closer

06:42

to 6 7 and 8:00 tonight we'll be

06:45

watching a couple of different areas for

06:46

discret supercells which are the ones

06:48

that are going to produce the most

06:49

significant longrack and strong tornado

06:52

threat across anywhere in Oklahoma and

06:55

Kansas and that would be where we're

06:56

watching for that development right here

06:58

in western parts of Kansas which again

07:00

that could be anywhere in this area for

07:01

the record not just that Circle that I

07:03

drew before and also even part across

07:05

parts of Central Kansas back over right

07:07

in front of the line of storms this

07:08

another area that I would be watching

07:10

for very very closely and then once we

07:12

get closer to 7 8 9:00 those storms

07:15

continue to move East and we'll continue

07:16

to watch multiple storms across parts of

07:18

Oklahoma producing the tornado threat

07:20

now don't really ignore this area I know

07:23

it doesn't show any storms on the future

07:24

radar but there is a chance that we

07:26

could see one or two discret cells even

07:28

in parts of central Oklahoma that

07:30

produce a strong Andor long trck tornado

07:32

threat so don't rule out that area make

07:34

sure you're staying Vigilant and have

07:35

multiple ways to receive alerts by

07:37

around 10 to 11 o'clock tonight those

07:39

storms continue to move Eastbound And by

07:41

midnight most of the storms are still

07:42

ongoing across parts of Oklahoma with

07:45

mostly a hail wind and maybe a couple

07:47

tornadoes still being possible and then

07:49

after midnight most of these storms are

07:50

damaging wind producers with a couple

07:52

more tornadoes being possible across

07:54

Southern Iowa parts of Missouri and even

07:56

Northwest Arkansas and perhaps even into

07:58

Eastern okoklahoma

07:59

so stay very weather aware across those

08:02

areas and again we'll be live tonight so

08:03

make sure that you're subscrib to the

08:04

channel back over in Iowa and Illinois

08:06

we'll have that line of storms moving

08:08

through early tomorrow morning which

08:09

will produce the threat for damaging

08:11

winds and perhaps maybe a brief tornado

08:13

or two it will weaken as we go late into

08:15

the morning but we're going to have

08:16

another explosion of thunderstorms

08:17

tomorrow afternoon across parts of the

08:19

Ohio Valley overall I think this threat

08:21

of severe weather is going to be pretty

08:24

low to medium I don't think we're going

08:25

to have anything too too significant

08:27

when it comes to the tornado threat but

08:29

I do think large hail damaging winds and

08:31

a few tornadoes will be possible I just

08:33

don't think it's going to be nearly as

08:34

significant as today I would still stay

08:37

weather aware in case anything does get

08:39

a little bit dicey we'll probably also

08:41

be live tomorrow so make sure that

08:42

you're subscribed to the channel now as

08:44

we go into Wednesday I think things do

08:46

become a little bit more concerning in

08:48

terms of the tornado threat notice the

08:50

significant tornado parameter values as

08:51

we go into Wednesday afternoon and

08:53

evening they get quite High across parts

08:55

of Arkansas Illinois eastern Missouri

08:58

and even back into Kentucky and I do

09:00

think we are going to get a more

09:01

significant tornado threat as we go into

09:03

Wednesday in the late afternoon through

09:05

the evening and perhaps even into the

09:07

overnight hours where we could end up

09:09

seeing a nocturnal tornado threat so uh

09:11

again details on this still remain a

09:13

little bit uncertain so stay tuned we'll

09:14

have another update video for this once

09:16

we get closer and once things do become

09:18

a bit more certain if we do not have an

09:20

update video we'll be live on Tuesday

09:22

with an update for you more than likely

09:24

so just make sure you're subscribe to

09:25

the channel and we'll keep you posted

09:26

with the latest thank you so much for

09:28

watching make sure hit the like button

09:29

down below and subscribe if you've not

09:30

already

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