A NEW Trace! The FULL MH370 Story...So Far.
Summary
TLDRThe transcript details the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, exploring the events leading up to its vanishing and the subsequent search efforts. It delves into the possible scenarios based on the aircraft's systems, such as the SATCOM and ACARS, and discusses the potential use of weak signal propagation data to trace the plane's final path. The narrative also highlights the importance of continuing the search for the missing Boeing 777 to provide closure for the families of the 239 people on board.
Takeaways
- đ« MH370's disappearance remains one of the biggest aviation mysteries, with the Boeing 777 vanishing with 239 people on board.
- đ It has been 10 years since the Malaysia Airlines flight went missing, and this story aims to encourage authorities to restart the search.
- đšââïž The flight was a training flight for the first officer, who was transitioning from the Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777.
- đ The aircraft's route took a sharp turn from its planned path, indicating deliberate interference with the flight's trajectory.
- đ« The transponder was manually switched off, suggesting a conscious effort to avoid detection.
- đ A power failure to the SATCOM system suggests a deliberate act of disconnecting all power sources, indicating someone with knowledge of the aircraft's systems was in control.
- đ°ïž Inmarsat data provided a series of 'handshakes' that placed the aircraft along specific arcs, indicating it continued to fly for hours after last contact.
- đ€ The final moments of MH370 are still speculative, but evidence suggests a series of turns and possible figure-eight pattern before the end.
- đ Debris found along Eastern African coastlines confirms the aircraft crashed into the ocean, but the exact location remains unknown.
- đ New potential evidence using radio data and expert analysis suggests different search areas that could lead to the discovery of the wreckage.
- đ The renewed search efforts are crucial for providing closure to the families of the passengers and crew of MH370.
Q & A
What was the significance of the WSPR data in the search for MH370?
-The WSPR data provided a potential new trajectory for MH370, which included a series of turns towards existing waypoints but not on the same airways, suggesting the aircraft was still being deliberately piloted to avoid detection. The WSPR data also indicated a possible final position for the aircraft and corresponded closely with the Inmarsat handshake arcs.
What are the two types of radar mentioned in the script and how do they differ?
-The two types of radar mentioned are primary radar and secondary radar. Primary radar, also known as raw radar, sends out a radio pulse and measures any waves that bounce back, providing information about the target's direction. Secondary radar relies on a transponder on the aircraft to provide more detailed information like position, altitude, speed, and flight plan data.
What was the role of the ACARS system in the story of MH370?
-The Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was a digital data link system that transmitted regular information about the aircraft's status and position. It was crucial in providing the 'handshakes' with the satellite, which later helped in retracing the aircraft's path even after it disappeared from conventional radar.
What happened to the transponder signals on MH370 shortly after the aircraft flew past IGARI?
-The Mode S functionality of the transponder, which provides additional information, was switched off, and after 37 seconds, the secondary radar return also disappeared as the aircraft stopped following its planned route and made a sharp turn.
What is the significance of the 'first handshake' from MH370's SATCOM system after it had been non-responsive?
-The 'first handshake' indicated that the aircraft's SATCOM system had come back to life after a power interruption. The large frequency error in the burst frequency offset (BFO) value suggested that the system's quartz crystals had not yet reached the correct temperature, implying that the aircraft had likely been powered down until just before this point.
What was the possible reason for the captain's second call to the Lumpur Area controller reporting that the aircraft was level at flight level 350?
-The second call might have been made to ensure that Air Traffic Control (ATC) had not tried to contact the aircraft while the crew was away from the frequency, possibly due to being occupied with some issue on the aircraft.
What was the significance of the mobile phone signal detected from the first officer's phone by a Celcom mobile mast on Penang island?
-The detection of the mobile phone signal suggested that the first officer might have been trying to communicate from the aircraft. However, no call signals came through, and the signal was detected only briefly, indicating a possible attempt to reach out during the crisis.
What was the possible reason for the aircraft to fly in a figure-eight pattern towards the end of the flight?
-The figure-eight pattern, if accurate, suggests a deliberate act by the person in control of the aircraft, possibly to look out for ships in the area as a reassurance that the aircraft's final resting place would not be easily discovered.
What were the two alternate theories for new search areas provided in the video?
-The two alternate theories for new search areas were based on the expertise of two veteran 777 captains and a new application of existing radio data from the WSPR network. Both theories propose areas outside of the previously searched zones.
What were the improvements made in tracking commercial aircraft over oceans following the disappearance of MH370?
-Improvements included better tracking procedures for aircraft over oceans, extended life for emergency locator transmitters, and enhanced Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures for tracking aircraft.
Why is finding the wreckage of MH370 considered important?
-Finding the wreckage is crucial for conclusively determining the fate of the aircraft, understanding the cause of its disappearance, and providing closure to the families of the passengers and crew. It also aids in improving aviation safety and tracking technologies to prevent similar incidents in the future.
Outlines
đš Mystery of MH370: The Untraceable Flight
The script begins with an exploration of the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, a Boeing 777 that vanished with 239 people on board. The video aims to persuade authorities to restart the search for the missing aircraft and provide closure to the families. It introduces new potential evidence based on enhanced technology that may reveal the plane's final location.
đšââïž The Crew of Flight MH370
The narrative delves into the background of the pilots, their training, and personal lives. It describes the captain's extensive experience and the first officer's transition from Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777. The script also discusses the crew's pre-flight preparations and the aircraft's technical specifications, including its communication systems.
đ« The Final Moments on the Ground
This section details the final pre-flight activities, including the cargo load, ACARS messages, and the aircraft's taxi and takeoff. It highlights the normalcy of the flight's initial phase, the communication with air traffic control, and the passengers' profiles.
đ Radar and Communication Systems
The script explains the types of radar systems used in aviation, including primary and secondary radar, and the role of transponders. It discusses the aircraft's communication with air traffic control and the significance of the ACARS system in tracking the flight.
đ©ïž The Unraveling Flight Path
The account of the flight's trajectory after takeoff, including the captain's routine communications and the abrupt changes in the flight path detected by primary radar. It suggests a possible deliberate intervention with the flight's trajectory and the disabling of the transponder.
đ Power Loss and System Manipulation
The script hypothesizes about the deliberate disconnection of power sources, leading to a loss of communication with the aircraft. It explores the implications of the SATCOM system going silent and the potential strategies used to avoid detection by military and civilian radar.
đŹ The Search for MH370 Continues
The video discusses the efforts to track the aircraft using Inmarsat data and the challenges of interpreting the data due to multiple potential flight paths. It highlights the importance of continuing the search for MH370 and introduces new theories and potential search areas based on various analyses.
đ New Evidence and Final Theories
The script presents new evidence and theories, including the use of WSPR data and the potential final route of MH370. It discusses the possibility of the aircraft being piloted deliberately until the end and the implications of the findings on the search for the wreckage.
đ Closure for the Families
The video concludes with a call to action for renewed search efforts in new areas to find the wreckage of MH370 and provide closure for the families of the missing passengers. It emphasizes the importance of uncovering the truth behind the flight's disappearance.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄBoeing 777
đĄMH370
đĄACARS
đĄSATCOM
đĄTransponder
đĄPrimary Radar
đĄFlight Level
đĄRadar Echo
đĄInmarsat
đĄWSPR
Highlights
The mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is explored, focusing on the possibility of a deliberate act by someone with expert knowledge of the aircraft and its systems.
The story of MH370 is told with the goal of persuading authorities to restart the search for the missing Boeing 777 and provide closure to the families of the 239 people on board.
New potential evidence is presented based on enhanced and refined technology that may provide new clues to the aircraft's final location.
The flight was a training flight for the first officer transitioning from Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777.
The captain had a stable financial situation, no known illnesses, and was a solid, reliable member of his community with an 18,400-hour flight experience.
The aircraft's ACARS system sent out its last complete routine message via SATCOM before a period of silence from the aircraft.
The transponder's Mode S functionality was switched off, indicating deliberate interference with the flight's trajectory.
The aircraft made a sharp, almost 180-degree left turn, suggesting manual control and disconnection of the autopilot.
The SATCOM system's power failure suggests that all power sources were manually turned off, indicating a deliberate act by someone in control of the aircraft.
The aircraft continued to fly for several hours, with Inmarsat data providing seven handshakes that could be used to track its path.
The Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Protocol (WSPR) is introduced as a potential new method for tracking aircraft, using low power radio transmissions.
WSPR data corresponds with Inmarsat data, suggesting the aircraft made a series of turns towards waypoints, indicating continued manual piloting.
The WSPR data indicates the aircraft may have flown in a figure-eight pattern before its final logon, possibly to avoid detection.
The final Inmarsat logon suggests the aircraft might have been in a steep descent or was maximizing the use of remaining fuel.
Debris from MH370 has been found along the coastlines of Eastern Africa, indicating the aircraft crashed in or near the searched area.
The video calls for a renewed search effort in two new areas outside of the previously searched zones, based on veteran 777 captains' theories and WSPR data analysis.
The search for MH370 is important not only for the families of the missing but also for improvements in aviation safety and tracking.
Transcripts
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- How can a Boeing 777, one of the biggest
and most modern aircraft in the world,
just vanish without a trace?
It can't.
Everything lost leaves a trace.
- And a Malaysia Airlines flight with 239 people on board--
- MH370. - Flight 370.
- Flight MH370... (indistinct)
- Stay back!
- There are mysteries in the world
and then there is the story of MH370.
This is a story so full of questions and theories
that it's almost impossible to tell it
without resorting to pure speculation.
This is the reason I have refrained
from covering it up until now.
But since at the time of this video's release
it's gone 10 years since 239 people
disappeared without a trace,
I've decided to make an exception.
This story is created with one goal and one goal only,
and that is to persuade the authorities
to restart the search for the missing Boeing 777.
And with that, hopefully also provide some closure
to the families, some of which I've been
in contact with before making this video.
I will, today, share with you new potential evidence
based partially on a technology
that has been enhanced and refined over the last few years,
to the point where it now possibly can provide new clues
o where this aircraft finally ended up.
This is the story of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370,
as far as we know it.
- [MH370 Captain] Good night, Malaysia 370.
On the 7th of March, 2014, a crew from Malaysian Airlines
checked in for a night duty which was to take them
from Kuala Lumpur International Airport
in Malaysia up to Beijing International in China.
Except for the late start time,
it was supposed to be a quite nice duty
with a calculated flight time
of only five hours and 34 minutes,
meaning that they would eventually
be finished in Beijing around mid-morning the following day.
The captain of the flight arrived first and signed in
at the Malaysian Airlines crew room at local time 22:50.
He was then followed by his colleague,
the first officer, around 25 minutes later.
This was planned as a training flight for the first officer,
since he was completing a transition type course
over from the Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777,
which they would be flying on this flight.
The training had gone really well up until this point,
and if everything went fine on this flight,
he would be recommended for final line check
by the captain for the following duty.
Having said that, this was the first time
that these two pilots were planned to fly together,
which might explain why the captain
had turned up a little bit earlier.
You see, it's pretty common for us instructors to do so
if we need to review someone's training file,
for example, before the flight
to check out if there's any areas
that might require special attention.
In any case, once the first officer
had also signed in, the two pilots proceeded
by going through the pre-flight briefing,
which from what they could see looked pretty straightforward.
The weather in Kuala Lumpur was generally nice and dominated
by a sub-tropical high pressure centered over Thailand,
and the weather at their destination, Beijing,
also looked quite good from what they could see.
The only potential issue was
that about two-thirds down the route,
they would be passing through a pretty strong jet stream
with high winds, which could cause a bit of turbulence,
but apart from that, it was looking pretty straightforward.
With that in mind, and no NOTAMs affecting
the flight either, the pilots then turned
their attention to the flight plan.
There were two alternates listed for Beijing,
and taking into consideration both of these,
the pilots decided on a final fuel of 49,100 kilos,
which was in line with the expected amount for this flight,
neither substantially more nor less than required.
This fuel would give the aircraft an approximate endurance
of seven hours and 31 minutes, around two hours longer
than the anticipated flight time,
and that will, of course, become very important in this story.
So who were the pilots
that were going to be in charge of this flight then?
Well, the captain was a 53-year-old
with a 33-year great track record in Malaysia Airlines.
He was married with three children,
and on his spare time, he was involved
in a local opposition party, helped deliver groceries
to elderly, and tinker with some home electronics.
He had also started a YouTube channel,
which by the way is still there,
where he showed how to mend certain home appliances,
and also, crucially, where he showed off his home simulator,
which he had built to be able to practice his trade at home.
This simulator would later be investigated thoroughly.
It had been erased weeks before the flight,
but the investigator still found
some manually-entered waypoints of interest
in a backup memory, but without it proving
to be anything conclusive.
In any case, the captain had stable finances,
no known illnesses, and was regarded as a solid,
reliable member of his community.
In terms of his aviation career,
it had started when he was accepted
into a sponsored program for Malaysian Airlines
already back in 1981.
He completed his licenses,
and then started flying for them back in 1983.
He then worked his way up the ranks, starting
on the Fokker F27, and then the 737-200,
Airbus A300, and finally,
he got his first command on the Fokker 50.
This was then followed by command on the 737 -400,
and the Airbus A330,
until actually on my birthday,line:1 the 22nd of September 1998,
he received his command on the Boeing 777,
which he then continued to operate
until the day of this flight.
His good track record and seniority eventually gave him
the opportunity to also become a type-rating instructor,
as well as an examiner on this type,
and it was in this capacity that he was going
to operate Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 on this evening.
He had a total experience of just over 18,400 hours,
and 8,659 of those had been flown on the Boeing 777.
The first officer was 27 years old and single.
He had also been accepted into the airline as a cadet pilot,
started in 2008, and he had been flying initially
on the Boeing 737-400.
He had then changed over to the Airbus A330 fleet in 2012,
and then on to the Boeing 777 in November 2013,
just a few months before this flight,
and this was obviously why he was still in training.
He had a total experience of just over 2,800 hours,
and very little, only 39 hours on the type.
There is not much more mentioned about the first officer
in the final report, except that he was known
as a nice person with stable economy
and no recent major changes in his life.
Now, given the vast difference in experience,
seniority, and the fact that this was a training flight,
it can be easily assumed that the power gradient
in the cockpit would have been quite steep,
but nothing indicated any personal issues
between these two colleagues.
Both of them had also received more than the required rest
before the flight, and their licenses
and medicals were all up to date.
When the pilots had completed
their pre-flight preparation and training briefing,
they walked over to their 10 cabin crew members
that they were scheduled to operate together with.
This was a vastly experienced crew,
with the most junior attendant having flown for 13 years,
and the most senior, over 35 years.
So the briefing would have been pretty quick and efficient.
After they were finished, they all walked together
out to the aircraft that was being prepared
for them by the ground crew outside.
It was a majestic Boeing 777-200ER,
equipped with two Rolls Royce Trent 892B turbofan engines,
and it was in perfect working condition
according to the tech log.
The only point of interest was that
the flight crew oxygen cylinder had been topped up
just prior to the flight, but this was a routine maintenance thing.
Now, there are numerous systems aboard
this aircraft that will become important for this story,
and in order to explain it, I will have to become
quite technical in some places,
but also that's kind of what we do here on the channel.
Anyway, the two pilots had decided
that the first officer was going
to be pilot flying for this flight,
meaning that he immediately started completing
the pre-flight preparation
as soon as he arrived to the cockpit.
This included inputting flight information,
like the flight number and the airline info
into the FMC CDU, which he did at time 23:56:08.
Now, you might wonder how we can know that so exactly,
and this has to do with a system
that will play an incredibly important role here,
the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System,
more commonly referred to as ACARS.
This is a digital data link system,
which connects data providers on the ground
directly to the aircraft via either VHF
or satellite communications.
It enables people on the ground
to send things like updated weather,
flight plans and even make calls
or send messages directly to the aircraft when it's airborne.
And the part of this system which is going
to be most important here
is the satellite communications or SATCOM system.
The ACARS system booted up and established a link
through the SATCOM at time 23:54.
And about one minute and 20 seconds later, it captured
the first officer's inputs as I just mentioned before.
This showed that the system worked fine
in the beginning of this flight, and it's worth noting here
that the system uses two different satellite antennas,
depending on if the aircraft's
navigation system is working or not.
Remember that.
Anyway, as the first officer was working away
in the cockpit, he soon received an ACARS message
containing something known as a NOTOC.
Frequent viewers of this channel will know that this stands
for notification to captain, and is normally sent out
if the aircraft will be carrying dangerous goods.
In this case, there were actually no dangerous goods on board,
just some special load being loaded,
consisting of several tons of mangosteens
which apparently had a tendency to leak juice and water
and therefore, had to be checked closely.
The NOTOC message confirmed that the cargo had been checked
and that it wasn't leaking, but what it didn't say
was that there were also nearly two and a half tons
of lithium ion batteries loaded on board.
But these batteries were individually packaged
and stored in such a way that they
were not considered dangerous goods,
and they have therefore been ruled out
as a possible cause for what's about to happen.
Eventually, the captain returned from his walk-around,
and together with his colleague, they completed the rest
of the preflight preparations and briefings.
At time 23:25, the first officer called up Kuala Lumpur delivery
to request their departure clearance.
The delivery controller told them that they were clear
to follow the PIBOS-1A departure
from Runway 32R and initially climbed
to 6,000 feet with transponder code 2157.
This was read back by the first officer
and less than two minutes later,
Malaysia 370 also requested push and start,
which was almost immediately approved.
After the pushback, the aircraft received its taxi clearance
and then started taxiing out
towards runway 32 Right through the dark Malaysian night.
And for anyone watching the aircraft,
everything looked completely normal,
but this was going to be the last time
anyone saw this aircraft with their own eyes.
So what about the passengers then?
Well, there were 227 passengers on board,
coming from 14 different nations.
153 were from China, making those the largest group,
followed by 50 from Malaysia and seven from Indonesia.
Two of those passengers were later found to have been flying
on stolen passports and they were identified
as Iranians, who were most likely looking
for refugee status and were not considered a threat.
None of the other passengers raised any type of suspicion,
and this means that in total, there were 239 passengers
and crew on board when the giant Boeing 777 lined up
on runway 32R and started spooling up its engines.
And I'll tell you all about what happened next,
right after this...
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At 40 minutes and 37 seconds past midnight
on the 8th of March, Kuala Lumpur tower
cleared Malaysian Airlines flight 370 for takeoff.
The first officer was at the controls
at this point and had therefore,
handed over the radio to the captain and after the engines
were stabilized, he pushed
the TO/GA buttons and the aircraft
started accelerating down the runway.
At 42 minutes past midnight,
the SATCOM system recorded that the aircraft was airborne
and it then continued to transmit
the aircraft's identification codes
together with all of the other normal data
and this just showed that everything
was completely normal at that stage.
The procedures in Kuala Lumpur was for the pilots
to automatically switch over to the departure frequency
after takeoff so that's exactly what the captain now also did.
Once he called up and identified himself
the departure controller told them
to cancel the standard instrument departure
and instead proceed direct towards a waypoint called IGARI
and continue the climb to flight level 180.
It's pretty common that controllers
give clearances like this especially at night
when there's typically less traffic
and therefore easier to give these kind of directs.
The captain just read back the clearance
and then selected IGARI as the active waypoint in the FMC.
The first officer would have then verified it,
told him to execute the routing
and then selected flight level 180 in the mode control panel
for the captain to verify just like they
would have done thousands of times before.
At this stage of the flight,
everything was still completely normal
and when you listen to the ATC tapes,
the voice level of the captain
is completely relaxed and routine.
The aircraft continued its climb
towards IGARI and they were eventually changed over
to the next frequency, Lumpur Radar on 132.6.
This was going to be the controller looking after them
until they reached IGARI
and the FIR boundary towards Vietnam.
The captain read back this handover more or less exactly
as he should by confirming the new frequency
and giving his call sign, again sounding completely normal.
When he called up the new area controller,
he was told that they could continue
their climb to flight level 250 which he also read back
and only three minutes later, they received further clearance
to climb to the requested cruise level, flight level 350.
As flight 370 progressed up towards the northeast,
they were still fully visible on radar
for all involved ATC units.
And here, it's probably a good time
to start explaining a bit about radars in general.
There are two different types of radar
to keep in mind for this episode:
primary radar, which is also referred to as raw radar
and secondary radar.
Under normal circumstances,
commercial air traffic always uses both of them
but the secondary radar is what gives
the majority of the information.
It is dependent on a small radio transmitter
known as a transponder on board the aircraft
and this transponder will be identified
by a four-letter numerical code
with numbers from zero to seven.
Remember that was the code
that the first officer received earlier
as part of the departure clearance.
Now there are two transponders on board the aircraft
and the active one will,
when it's activated by the pilots,
send air traffic control loads of information like position,
altitude, speed and even MCP selections in some cases.
The transponders also communicate
with other traffic and therefore enables TCAS maneuvering.
And it's these transponders that makes apps
like FlightRadar24 work since anyone can pick up
the ADS-B signals that they transmit.
But the key thing to remember here
is that the transponders are on board the aircraft
and without them functioning, secondary radar will not work
and neither will those websites or TCAS.
And this brings us to the primary radar
which is an invention that has been with us
for a very long time by now.
In this essence, it works on a simple idea
of sending out a radio pulse and then measuring any waves
that might hit a target and then bounce back to the receiver.
The direction those returning waves are then coming from
will give a bearing towards the target.
Obviously, this technology has become much more refined
since it was first invented, making it much more complex
but you get the general idea.
This type of radar can be used to see things
that are not transmitting any information voluntarily
and is therefore often used by the military.
But given the nature of shortwave radio signals,
this type of radar has a quite limited range
and cannot accurately track altitude and speed very well,
something that will become important soon.
At one minute and 14 seconds past one in the morning
the captain of Malaysian Flight 370,
called up the Lumpur Area controller
to advise him that they were now level at flight level 350.
This was acknowledged by the controller
but this was not a necessary call to make by the captain.
It was more of a courtesy thing.
But you could still hear from the sound of his voice
that he was relaxed when he made this call
from the way that his intonation
kind of dropped towards the end.
And it's from here on that I have a feeling
that we can see the first indication
of something being slightly out of order.
Now I want to make it absolutely clear
that nothing in the final report
has highlighted that whatever happened
started as early as here
but I personally reacted to something
that was just briefly mentioned in the report.
You see, about seven minutes after the captain called in
that they were level at flight level 350,
he called up again and reported the very same thing.
In the report, this was highlighted as anomalous
but the experts didn't think
that it was worth paying any attention to but I disagree.
You see, we pilots tend to make these extra calls
for two different reasons.
The first is that we hav just simply forgotten about it
and therefore, call again just to be on the safe side
but like I said earlier, this was not a mandatory call to make.
The other reason we do it is because we've been away
from the frequency for a while maybe because we have
been fiddling with the radios or turned down the volume
or something else, and we just want to make sure
that ATC hasn't tried to call us while we were gone.
You see if we make that call again
and ATC just responds, "Roger" or something similar,
well then we know that they haven't been trying to call us
because if they would have,
they would now repeat any other messages
that they had previously tried to send.
So with that in mind, there were seven minutes
between the first call and the second call
which means that something might have happened
to take the captain away from the radio between those calls.
The other thing that I reacted to
was the tone of voice of the captain
when he made that second call.
Again, the experts in the report
said that they couldn't detect any stress
in the voice from the recordings
but what I am hearing is a clear difference in pitch
between the first and the second call.
In the first, the captain sounds relaxed
with a clear dropping intonation towards the end
and in the second, he just sounds busy,
like he's working on something
at the same time that he's making that call.
This, the sound of workload,
is something that I often hear in the simulator
as well as when I'm doing training in the aircraft
and that's why I reacted to it when I heard it.
Anyway, as expected the controller just responded with...
Now, this doesn't have to mean anything and I don't want
to speculate any further on this detail
but I thought it was worth to highlight,
given what's soon about to happen.
So the aircraft continued its cleared track up towards IGARI
and within minutes of that last call from the captain,
the ACARS sent out its last complete routine message
via SATCOM down to the ground station.
After this, there would be a complete silence
from the aircraft SATCOM for almost one hour and 17 minutes.
This detail is super important because it tells us a lot
about what likely happened in the cockpit
but I'll get back to that soon.
At time 01:19:24, the Lumpur Area controller
instructed Malaysian Airlines Flight 370
to contact Ho Chi Minh control on frequency 120.9.
This happened about one minute
before the aircraft flew past IGARI,
so they were still technically in Malaysian airspace
but would soon pass into Vietnam.
And this is where the very last radio transmission occurred
from Flight 370 with the captain simply answering...
Now for some people,
that might have sounded like an ominous farewell
but what I heard was once again someone who was busy,
so busy in fact that he didn't complete the readback correctly.
Like I mentioned before, all frequencies we are given
must always be read back to avoid mistakes
but that was not done in this call.
In any case, now things started happening very quickly.
Five seconds after the aircraft flew past IGARI
the Mode S functionality of the transponder,
that was the part that gives
that extra information was suddenly switched off.
Now the only way to switch off only that
is to turn the transponder knob
in the cockpit from TA/RA to the altitude-off position.
A technical malfunction would have removed
all signals completely and immediately
but in this case, it took another 37 seconds
for the secondary radar return to completely disappear
and as it did, the aircraft abruptly
stopped following the planned route.
We know this because the primary radar recorded a turn
and what it registered was that after the initial right turn
towards a point called BITOD, the aircraft now started
a sharp, almost 180-degree left turn instead.
Now Boeing tried to replicate this turn in the simulator
but weren't able to match up
the turn and the timings perfectly.
The only simulation that got close
included a manually-flown turn,
meaning that the autopilot must have been disconnected.
And why is that you might ask?
Well, the autopilot will only allow certain bank angles
and this turn was so tight that a much steeper bank
must have been used, at least, partially throughout the turn
in order to accomplish it.
The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from this
is that someone had now started interfering
with the flight's trajectory on purpose.
The timing and position of where all of this took place
also looks far from random.
IGARI was the point just before the FIR boundary
between Malaysia and Vietnam which meant
that the controller from a new country
would now be taking over the responsibility for the flight.
The Malaysian controller which formerly still had
the responsibility had handed the aircraft over
and therefore, probably didn't monitor it too closely.
And the new Ho Chi Minh controller would likely wait
until the aircraft called him up
before starting to pay much attention to it
which is also exactly what now happened.
Given this, it was the perfect place
to initiate this maneuver
if the intention was to try to avoid detection.
And now you might ask why disengage the autopilot?
Why not just complete the turn?
Well, just to the north of IGARI, Thailand has something known
as an Air Defense Identification Zone
which on a high level chart,
shows up as two dotted parallel purple lines.
As the name suggests, the Thai military
would be monitoring any traffic entering
into that zone and follow it up
unless it was properly identified,
had a working transponder and followed a filed flight plan.
By carefully avoiding that zone, whoever was now in control
would also avoid any direct scrutiny from the Thai military
and given the direction the aircraft was now turning,
it's likely that anyone looking at the primary radar would assume
that the aircraft was just diverting
still under Malaysian control.
This turn would also position the aircraft
between that Thai ADIZ and Airway M765,
which would avoid any opposite traffic.
This shows us that whoever was now in control
was likely very well versed with the airspace structure
over this particular area
and that this was likely very carefully planned out.
After the U-turn was finished,
the aircraft continued in a semi-straight line
down towards the southwest and a VOR beacon known
as Victor Papa Golf near Penang in Malaysia.
The track showed small deviations consistent
with an aircraft being flown manually and not on autopilot.
Now since these radar echoes were only captured
on raw radar, it was impossible
to get any reliable speed or altitude data from them.
It is possible that the aircraft descended slightly
during this segment maybe to gain a higher true air speed
as it was overflying Malaysia.
This theory was further corroborated
by the fact that a Celcom mobile mast on the island of Penang
briefly detected a mobile phone signal
which was later confirmed
to have come from the first office's phone.
Those type of signals generally have
a very limited vertical range,
maximum around 30,000 feet and often much lower than that
but given that atmospheric conditions
have huge impact on the range,
it's very hard to speculate here.
But since turning off the mobile phone
is a checklist item in most airlines this could indicate
that the first officer was trying to communicate here
but no call signals ever came through
and the signal was only detected for a very short while.
But what is really intriguing during this segment
of the flight is another system
that we have already talked about a little bit
which is the SATCOM system.
You see the SATCOM sends out regular interrogations every hour
if no other information is being transmitted.
And when the ground base station tried
to uplink an ACARS message
at time three minutes past two in the morning,
it didn't receive any acknowledgement
back from the aircraft SATCOM.
So what does that mean then?
Well if the ACARS system was just switched off or failed,
the link would still take place.
It would just communicate the fact that ACARS wasn't working.
And if the system was manually logged off from the cockpit,
this would also be shown in that log.
And because none of that happened,
the most likely reason for this SATCOM loss
was a power failure to the system itself.
Now this system can be powered
from several different electrical buses
and from most of the aircraft's redundant power sources
so this fact has led some
incredibly-experienced Boeing 777 pilots
whose excellent work I will be linking to
in the description, by the way,
to believe that whoever was in charge of the aircraft
after that initial turn must have
manually turned off all of those sources.
This can be done by deselecting both
the primary and backup generators
from their buses using the buttons on the overhead panel.
After that, the aircraft would react
by trying to auto start the APU
in order to replace those systems.
So the person in charge would then have to put
the APU switch to on and then back off again
to stop that auto start from happening.
If that would happen, that would then trigger
the Ram Air Turbine, the rat to be activated either manually
or automatically and it would start
to provide electrical power
for the most critical systems like primary flight displays,
navigation displays and navigation equipment
but not the autopilot.
Hydraulic movement of the flight controls
would not be a problem
since both engines were still working
and providing hydraulics so maneuvering the aircraft manually
would still work perfectly fine.
Now, of course, removing the primary power sources
in this way would cause everything else
except emergency lighting to go black in the aircraft
and it's likely that this would make things very difficult
for both the crew and the passengers in the back.
And while we're on the subject of the passengers and crew,
I want to point out here that we really have no idea
about what actually happened to them.
Some theories suggested that whoever was in charge
might have depressurized the cabin
in order to get everyone into their seats
and keep them under control.
This is possible to do by just opening
the outflow valves manually
whilst still keeping the air conditioning running.
The fact that the air conditioning was kept running
would provide heating and make it bearable in the cockpit
as it otherwise would become freezing cold almost immediately.
The passenger oxygen masks would then drop
in the back but the oxygen generators
in the 777 would only last for about 22 minutes or so.
But the oxygen cylinder which is providing
the cockpit crew with oxygen would last a full 27 hours
in case there's only one person using it
and it had, like I mentioned before
been topped up just that very morning.
This means that if the cabin was kept un-pressurized
without descending, the passengers
would become completely incapacitated
once the oxygen generator stopped working.
But whoever was still in the cockpit
would be able to just continue to operate just fine.
The time of useful consciousness at 35,000 feet
is about one minute, extending to a few minutes at 30,000 feet
and anyone subjected to those altitudes
without supplemental oxygen, would after that, not be able
to take any rational decisions and soon become unconscious.
After that, if no oxygen would be provided,
it would take another 20 minutes or so until death would occur.
But like I said before, we don't know for a fact what happened
and we won't know more until the aircraft is found
which is why it is so important that we continue the search.
Now flying an aircraft at these altitudes manually
whilst possibly wearing an oxygen mask
and with only rudimentary navigation available
would be quite tiring and that's likely why
the radar images were showing these small heading variations.
Anyway, at this stage the aircraft continued
to be tracked by both civilian and military raw radar
as it continued its way around the south of Penang
where it started turning right through the Malacca Strait.
There were temporary lapses in the radar coverage
but all in all, it painted a fairly clear picture
of an aircraft flying in a controlled way
and not in any way random.
So why wasn't the aircraft intercepted
or tracked more closely then?
Well, this was due to a combination
of factors and misunderstandings
between different air traffic control units
and the operations controllers in Malaysia Airlines headquarters.
When the aircraft first disappeared from radar,
it took around 20 minutes before the Ho Chi Minh controller
called up the Malaysian controller
to ask about where the aircraft actually was.
Now this was significantly longer
than the standard five minutes it should take
before a query is sent but like I mentioned before
this happened at an intersection between two different countries
in the middle of the night, so it's likely that the controllers
were just dealing with other traffic
and didn't monitor their strips too closely.
When the Malaysian controller
who was still technically responsible
for the flight was made aware of the missing aircraft,
he eventually contacted Malaysian Airlines who confirmed
that they could see the aircraft flying up through Cambodia.
This meant that the air traffic controllers
now started contacting their colleagues along the route
that the aircraft was thought to be flying
to see if they could get into contact with them
and this in turn meant that none of them
saw the lonely faint radar echo
that was traveling southwest instead.
It was later found out
that the Malaysian Airlines' tracking software
was basing the position of the aircraft on predictions
when it didn't receive any real data
and that's what had caused that initial confusion.
Now the military did see the aircraft turning left after IGARI
but since it wasn't violating any new airspace,
they assumed it was just a normal air turnback
and didn't raise any further alarms
or send anyone up to intercept.
It was only later, with the help of radar playbacks
that the picture of MH370's true path became clearer.
After the aircraft had turned right
up towards the northwest it looked like it was heading
towards a waypoint called VAMPI.
The SATCOM system still had not logged on at this stage
so we can assume that the aircraft was still flying
in a power degraded state,
possibly only with the ram air turbine as a power source
but even if that was the case,
navigation would still not be a problem.
The VPG VOR was still well within range,
meaning that the aircraft could use raw data navigation
to find VAMPI and the waypoint could also be displayed
on the aircraft's navigation display,
so whoever was flying could just point the nose towards it.
VAMPI was soon passed
and the now more and more faint radar echo
continued flying up in the general direction
of airway N571 towards another waypoint called MEKAR.
And it's soon after the aircraft passed slightly to the south
of that waypoint, at time 02:22:12
that all conventional radar traces
from this flight completely disappeared.
Now there is a real possibility
that there were military radars picking up signals
from this aircraft for longer than this
but given the sensitivity around showing military capability
or positions of mobile radars,
we haven't seen any such information come forward.
So this means that from this point onwards
we are now going into the unknown
and with that, comes speculation or hypothesis
which you all know I try to avoid on this channel
so let's instead try to stay with what we do know.
In order to further track this aircraft,
the investigators, scientific community,
and several commercial companies
had to start using any data received in completely new ways
and a great example of this, is the Inmarsat data.
Inmarsat is, as the name suggests,
a company providing satellite communication services
and it was through their satellite
that the SATCOM system for the aircraft ACARS was operating.
The signals these satellites
were sending were never designed to track aircrafts
but since there were signals exchanged
with MH370, those signals could be reverse-engineered
to provide a crude singular position indicator
every time that they appeared.
The way this was done was basically
by mimicking certain parts of the GPS system.
You see each GPS satellite
is basically an extremely accurate
timing device and when a device
on earth like your phone
or, in this case, a Boeing 777 connects to one of them,
the GPS satellite transmits
a quick signal which basically says
this is where I am and this is the time right now.
That signal then travels at the speed
of light which still takes a certain amount of time
to arrive to your device.
That time is measured to determine how far away you are
from that GPS satellite and with the satellite's position
and your distance from it, we can determine
that you are somewhere along the radius of a circle.
Then obviously your device will connect to multiple satellites
with each one of them drawing its own circle
and where all of these circles meet,
well, that's where you are.
So in the case of the Inmarsat data,
this same technique could basically also be used.
Each time the aircraft connected to the satellite using
the SATCOM system, the time its system took
to respond to the satellite signals was recorded.
The same happened at regular intervals
when the satellite checked that the plane was still connected
and each of these connections,
seven of them in total are the famous handshakes
that were reported about basically everywhere.
Every one of those handshakes
could then be used to place the missing aircraft
somewhere along a circle at a specific point of time
and that process of defining a circle or arc
is called burst timing offset or BTO.
But this was not the only information
that the Inmarsat signals could provide.
Analysts could also pick up another value
in the signal, something known
as burst frequency offset or BFO.
BFO gave information that could help
the investigators determine how
the aircraft was moving in relation to the satellite.
As its name suggests, it involved studying
the actual frequencies of the signal that the satellite received
and then how they differed from the expected frequencies.
Think of this like the way an ambulance siren seems
to change its tone as it drives towards and then past you.
When it's coming towards you,
the sound waves are denser,
making for a higher frequency and after it goes past you,
the sound waves moves further apart,
giving the tone a lower frequency.
This is called the Doppler effect or the Doppler shift
and primary radars actually also use this
in the same way to determine,
for example, the speed of an aircraft.
Now I am, of course, oversimplifying these concepts
a bit here but in the case of MH370,
since these signals between the aircraft
and the satellite traveled mostly vertically,
the burst frequency offset or BFO was instead used
to help investigators determine
whether the aircraft was climbing or descending.
Now those of you who have been paying attention
will have noticed that I have said
that the SATCOM system was not working
so how could the Inmarsat analyst get any of these handshakes?
Well, here is where we get to a really interesting development
that happened at time 02:25:27.
Then, all of a sudden the previously
non-responsive SATCOM system of MH370
suddenly came back to life
and proceeded to start sending a logon request to the satellite.
This would later be referred to as the first handshake.
This happened almost exactly one hour
after the aircraft had completed its turn
after IGARI and the interesting bit
is that the burst frequency offset value
in this first handshake was deemed unreliable
due to a quite large frequency error.
And what's making that so interesting then?
Well, it turns out that the quartz crystals used
in the SATCOM radio transmitters needed
to be kept at a constant temperature
to avoid big frequency oscillations.
This was achieved with the help
of something known as an oven-controlled crystal oscillator
which was basically a temperature controller
and it needed time to warm up
after a lengthy power interruption.
So it is likely that it hadn't reached the correct temperature
at this point when the first logon message was sent,
hence the BFO frequency error.
And this is how we know that the aircraft
was likely powered down up until just prior to this point.
Science is truly amazing!
Now this first handshake also lacked a valid flight
and company ID which the aircraft
previously had transmitted correctly.
We cannot know this for sure,
but if the aircraft's power had been manually restored
at this point, well then the person in command
would likely also know that the SATCOM system
would soon boot up and start sending out data.
So in order to stay hidden, he would have had to manually go
into the multifunctional display
and disable all communications
through the communications manager page
before the satellite communication unit,
the SDU became fully operational.
If this was done this way, this would also raise the flight
and company info, which is exactly
what the data also showed.
So you can see, even though no data was actually sent out,
with a lot of ingenuity, the signals themselves
can actually tell us a lot about what was likely going on.
We also know, for example,
that the navigation system was working
because of which antenna
the SATCOM system was using when it started transmitting.
Like I said, amazing.
So using the Inmarsat data, we know for sure
that the aircraft continued to fly,
long enough to allow a total of seven handshakes
where the first and the last were logon requests
sent by the aircraft itself.
Like I explained before, these logon requests
were most probably caused by power interruptions,
where the last one was likely caused by the fuel starvation
of one or possibly both engines,
after the aircraft had flown
for around seven hours and 35 minutes.
That last handshake came at time 08:19 Malaysian time,
which corresponds quite well with the endurance
of the aircraft based on the recorded fuel.
These handshakes occurred roughly every hour,
since the system was sent to send out a ping every hour
unless other SATCOM activities were initiated.
Two of the handshakes were caused
by ground-based satellite calls
from the Malaysian Airlines Operations Center,
who reached the cockpit but was left unanswered.
Even so, they reset the hourly timing of the other handshakes,
and that's the reason why all of these seven handshakes
were not happening on the same hourly intervals.
But of course, we now have a huge problem.
Since the Inmarsat data was all coming
from one satellite, the arcs created
by these seven handshakes created multiple possible routes
that the aircraft might have flown,
and therefore an enormous potential search area.
Several hugely accomplished pilots and investigators
have come up with very plausible scenarios
on how the aircraft must have been flown
after that last radar position to both align
with all of those seven handshakes and avoid detection.
Almost everyone agrees that the most likely route
includes a turn from the previously north-westerly coast
around the area of a waypoint called NILAM
onto a more south-westerly course.
This would bring it down past the northern tip of Indonesia,
close to Banda Aceh, and sometime after that,
it might have chosen a southerly course,
straight down into the southern Indian Ocean.
I will link to some incredible investigative work made
by Captain Patrick Blelly and Jean-Luc Merchand
in the description of this video,
which lays out a very plausible final route.
But what I really want to do now
is to also look at the possibility
that there actually might be more physical evidence
of where this aircraft finally ended up.
All of the evidence that I've presented to you so far,
points to a deliberate action from someone on board,
with expert knowledge of the aircraft,
its systems, and the airspace it was flying through.
But a question that has been nagging me
is that would someone who has obviously planned this
so thoroughly to avoid detection,
bring the aircraft out to this point
and then just turn the aircraft south
and wait several hours until it ran out of fuel?
It feels a bit unlikely given how active this person was
during those initial parts of the maneuver,
and I wouldn't be surprised
if he continued to be as active until the very end.
But again, this will be hard
to prove without further physical evidence.
And it now looks like we might possibly have just that.
You see, back in 2008, an American astrophysicist
by the name of Joseph Hooton Taylor Jr.
started working on something
called the Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Protocol,
or WSPR for short.
He had previously received a Nobel Prize in Physics
back in 1993 for his work on pulsars,
but he was also a keen amateur radio enthusiast.
WSPR is a protocol for low power radio transmissions
that explores how low, medium,
and high frequency transmissions propagate over large distances.
And Taylor designed computer software
that was used to analyze these signals.
When these signals move over large distances,
they sometimes scatter when they hit obstacles
in their path, and this causes tiny anomalies
in the signal strength.
This was interesting for radio amateurs
because they could sometimes use those obstacles
to improve overall reception,
and crucially, one feature in the WSPR protocol
is that the reception from thousands
of these signals have been uploaded
into a shared database and stored all the way back to 2008.
Now, I want to be absolutely clear here
and say that Taylor himself never designed WSPR
to be used for the tracking of aircraft
neither did he actually think that it was possible.
But back in 2021, an avionics system engineer
called Richard Godfrey started exploring
the possibility of using the WSPR database
together with algorithms to look for anomalies
in several different simultaneous transmissions
as a kind of poor man's primary radar.
Theoretically, if you know
the exact location of the transmitter and the receiver,
together with the time of day
and about a million other factors,
there might be a possibility to use tiny,
concurring anomalies in several of these signals
to track something like an aircraft.
And the really cool thing
is that this technology samples thousands
of signals every two minutes,
which could potentially give us much
more information than we previously had.
Godfrey understood this, and from 2021 until today,
he and his colleagues, Dr. Hannes Coetzee
and Professor Simon Maskell
have been trying to analyze this database
to try and find traces of MH370.
And in a report released on the 31st of August 2023,
they claim that they have actually done just that.
Again, this video is not about
whether this technology actually can be used this way or not.
But what I find fascinating here
is that it's based on verifiable stored data.
So, just like with DNA that couldn't be used much
during the early years, but has since been refined
to incredible accuracy,
maybe there actually is something hidden
inside of these signals.
This team's trace data have actually
already improved significantly from their first results,
as their algorithms have been evolving.
And this latest report tells a quite fascinating story.
Initially, the WSPR data coincided nicely
with the existing radar information,
up until just prior to VAMPI, where it indicated
that the aircraft made a turn to a more westerly heading.
It then paralleled the assumed track
on a slightly more southerly course than indicated
by the raw radar, and this could be
because of the inherent impreciseness
of the technology, or the same from the radar,
which at that point, was at the very limit of its effective range.
In any case, the WSPR track continued up
towards the northwest, where it intercepted exactly
the arc from the first Inmarsat handshake
at time 02:28:15.
The data then indicates that the aircraft continued up
towards a point known as SANOB,
of which it made a left turn towards URDAM
or very close to what the other experts predicted
that the aircraft must have done
to continue avoiding military radars
and additional scrutiny by ATC.
Now, I won't go into all of the details
of the route that the WSPR data indicated,
but I want to highlight a few important things.
This data pointed to a track
that wasn't completely straight down
into the Southern Indian Ocean.
Instead, it showed a series of turns,
each of which was pointing towards an existing waypoint,
but not ever on the same airway.
This corresponds nicely with an aircraft
that was still being piloted, but in a planned way
to avoid interfering with existing airways,
where a potential traffic conflict could arise.
Remember, it would not be seen on TCAS,
nor could whoever was flying it see other traffic.
If the intention was to not be detected,
this type of behavior would make perfect sense,
since its ultimate destination
would be very hard to predict
in case it was partially being monitored.
The WSPR data also suggested
that the aircraft slowed down slightly
during two different intervals
of its jagged flight down towards the south,
which could possibly mean step climbs.
But the thing that really stood out to me was the fact
that the WSPR data corresponded almost perfectly
with all of the seven Inmarsat handshake arcs,
which is data that no one is really disputing.
Towards the end of the flight,
the WSPR position also indicated something very strange
because it looked like the aircraft
started flying in a figure-eight pattern
in between the sixth and the seventh handshake,
which would have been when the aircraft
was predicted to be running out of fuel.
The aircraft wouldn't do that by itself,
because the radar-compensating system
in the Boeing 777 is designed to compensate
for the asymmetric thrust after an engine failure,
so if this pattern was actually flown,
it must have been a deliberate act
by whoever was in controls.
Now, it is very hard to speculate on why someone
would do something like that,
but at this time it would have been daylight in that area
and the weather was clear,
so it is possible that this was done to look out
for ships in the area nearby, as a reassurance
that the aircraft's final resting place would not be seen.
The BFO from the Inmarsat data indicated
that the aircraft could have been
in a very steep descent during the last logon handshake,
as high as 14,500 feet per minute,
but that doesn't necessarily mean
that it just dove straight into the sea.
Instead, again, according to the excellent report
of Captain Blelly and Jean-Luc MĂ©rchand,
there is the possibility that the right engine flamed out
due to fuel starvation, and that this led the person in charge
to start the APU and open the crossfill valve
to maximize the use of the remaining fuel.
The APU standpipe sits a little bit lower in the tank
than the engines does so.
That gives it a little bit more access
to all available fuel and the person in command
could then have manually shut down
the remaining engine to maximize the APU use,
which would have given access to all flight controls
and systems for as long as possible, and also enable
the flaps to be extended,
which wouldn't be possible without either one engine
or the APU running.
When the last Inmarsat logon was completed,
it lacked information from, for example,
the in-flight entertainment system, which is logical
if the aircraft was being powered by only the APU,
since systems like the IFE would then have been shed
to prioritize more important systems.
According to Captain Blelly's calculations,
the aircraft could have ended up either very close
to the 7th arc if it was in a rapid dive,
or as far as 67 nautical miles further south,
if the aircraft was flown to maximize its glide
and touch down with flaps 30 selected.
The WSPR data showed a possible last position
at time 08:19:37 and after that,
there were no more correlated anomalies found.
We do know that the aircraft crashed in the ocean,
in or near the already searched area,
because both internal and external parts
of the aircraft have been found.
The confirmed piece of debris comes from a flaperon
from the right-hand wing,
as well as multiple other components,
which are almost certainly coming from MH370.
All of those pieces have been washed up along
the coastlines of Eastern Africa and islands around,
by currents that can be tracked back to this general area.
And given that some of the debris found comes
from inside of the aircraft,
it is likely that it broke up upon impact.
This horrific story have already led
to improvements in tracking commercial aircraft over oceans,
longer life for emergency locator transmitters
and better ATC procedures for tracking aircraft,
but we can't lay this to rest
before the wreckage is actually found.
Again, this is why I created this video.
Linked below here in the description are two
different theories outlining two new search areas outside
of those already searched
in the biggest search effort in aviation history.
One of those theories are based
on the skill and knowledge of two veteran 777 captains,
and the other on a widely-contested new application
of existing radio data, but data that has been recently proven
to work following flights in other areas.
I am not here to judge what is right or wrong.
The only thing that I want to achieve
is to get the search going again
for the sake of the families left behind.
So here are two relatively small new areas to search.
Please get the boats out there
and let's get to the bottom of this literally.
(calm music)
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