A NEW Trace! The FULL MH370 Story...So Far.

Mentour Pilot
16 Mar 202456:06

Summary

TLDRThe transcript details the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, exploring the events leading up to its vanishing and the subsequent search efforts. It delves into the possible scenarios based on the aircraft's systems, such as the SATCOM and ACARS, and discusses the potential use of weak signal propagation data to trace the plane's final path. The narrative also highlights the importance of continuing the search for the missing Boeing 777 to provide closure for the families of the 239 people on board.

Takeaways

  • đŸ›« MH370's disappearance remains one of the biggest aviation mysteries, with the Boeing 777 vanishing with 239 people on board.
  • 🕒 It has been 10 years since the Malaysia Airlines flight went missing, and this story aims to encourage authorities to restart the search.
  • đŸ‘šâ€âœˆïž The flight was a training flight for the first officer, who was transitioning from the Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777.
  • 🌏 The aircraft's route took a sharp turn from its planned path, indicating deliberate interference with the flight's trajectory.
  • đŸš« The transponder was manually switched off, suggesting a conscious effort to avoid detection.
  • 🔋 A power failure to the SATCOM system suggests a deliberate act of disconnecting all power sources, indicating someone with knowledge of the aircraft's systems was in control.
  • đŸ›°ïž Inmarsat data provided a series of 'handshakes' that placed the aircraft along specific arcs, indicating it continued to fly for hours after last contact.
  • đŸ€” The final moments of MH370 are still speculative, but evidence suggests a series of turns and possible figure-eight pattern before the end.
  • 🌊 Debris found along Eastern African coastlines confirms the aircraft crashed into the ocean, but the exact location remains unknown.
  • 🔍 New potential evidence using radio data and expert analysis suggests different search areas that could lead to the discovery of the wreckage.
  • 🙏 The renewed search efforts are crucial for providing closure to the families of the passengers and crew of MH370.

Q & A

  • What was the significance of the WSPR data in the search for MH370?

    -The WSPR data provided a potential new trajectory for MH370, which included a series of turns towards existing waypoints but not on the same airways, suggesting the aircraft was still being deliberately piloted to avoid detection. The WSPR data also indicated a possible final position for the aircraft and corresponded closely with the Inmarsat handshake arcs.

  • What are the two types of radar mentioned in the script and how do they differ?

    -The two types of radar mentioned are primary radar and secondary radar. Primary radar, also known as raw radar, sends out a radio pulse and measures any waves that bounce back, providing information about the target's direction. Secondary radar relies on a transponder on the aircraft to provide more detailed information like position, altitude, speed, and flight plan data.

  • What was the role of the ACARS system in the story of MH370?

    -The Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was a digital data link system that transmitted regular information about the aircraft's status and position. It was crucial in providing the 'handshakes' with the satellite, which later helped in retracing the aircraft's path even after it disappeared from conventional radar.

  • What happened to the transponder signals on MH370 shortly after the aircraft flew past IGARI?

    -The Mode S functionality of the transponder, which provides additional information, was switched off, and after 37 seconds, the secondary radar return also disappeared as the aircraft stopped following its planned route and made a sharp turn.

  • What is the significance of the 'first handshake' from MH370's SATCOM system after it had been non-responsive?

    -The 'first handshake' indicated that the aircraft's SATCOM system had come back to life after a power interruption. The large frequency error in the burst frequency offset (BFO) value suggested that the system's quartz crystals had not yet reached the correct temperature, implying that the aircraft had likely been powered down until just before this point.

  • What was the possible reason for the captain's second call to the Lumpur Area controller reporting that the aircraft was level at flight level 350?

    -The second call might have been made to ensure that Air Traffic Control (ATC) had not tried to contact the aircraft while the crew was away from the frequency, possibly due to being occupied with some issue on the aircraft.

  • What was the significance of the mobile phone signal detected from the first officer's phone by a Celcom mobile mast on Penang island?

    -The detection of the mobile phone signal suggested that the first officer might have been trying to communicate from the aircraft. However, no call signals came through, and the signal was detected only briefly, indicating a possible attempt to reach out during the crisis.

  • What was the possible reason for the aircraft to fly in a figure-eight pattern towards the end of the flight?

    -The figure-eight pattern, if accurate, suggests a deliberate act by the person in control of the aircraft, possibly to look out for ships in the area as a reassurance that the aircraft's final resting place would not be easily discovered.

  • What were the two alternate theories for new search areas provided in the video?

    -The two alternate theories for new search areas were based on the expertise of two veteran 777 captains and a new application of existing radio data from the WSPR network. Both theories propose areas outside of the previously searched zones.

  • What were the improvements made in tracking commercial aircraft over oceans following the disappearance of MH370?

    -Improvements included better tracking procedures for aircraft over oceans, extended life for emergency locator transmitters, and enhanced Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures for tracking aircraft.

  • Why is finding the wreckage of MH370 considered important?

    -Finding the wreckage is crucial for conclusively determining the fate of the aircraft, understanding the cause of its disappearance, and providing closure to the families of the passengers and crew. It also aids in improving aviation safety and tracking technologies to prevent similar incidents in the future.

Outlines

00:00

🚹 Mystery of MH370: The Untraceable Flight

The script begins with an exploration of the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, a Boeing 777 that vanished with 239 people on board. The video aims to persuade authorities to restart the search for the missing aircraft and provide closure to the families. It introduces new potential evidence based on enhanced technology that may reveal the plane's final location.

05:01

đŸ‘šâ€âœˆïž The Crew of Flight MH370

The narrative delves into the background of the pilots, their training, and personal lives. It describes the captain's extensive experience and the first officer's transition from Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777. The script also discusses the crew's pre-flight preparations and the aircraft's technical specifications, including its communication systems.

10:01

đŸ›« The Final Moments on the Ground

This section details the final pre-flight activities, including the cargo load, ACARS messages, and the aircraft's taxi and takeoff. It highlights the normalcy of the flight's initial phase, the communication with air traffic control, and the passengers' profiles.

15:02

🌐 Radar and Communication Systems

The script explains the types of radar systems used in aviation, including primary and secondary radar, and the role of transponders. It discusses the aircraft's communication with air traffic control and the significance of the ACARS system in tracking the flight.

20:03

đŸ›©ïž The Unraveling Flight Path

The account of the flight's trajectory after takeoff, including the captain's routine communications and the abrupt changes in the flight path detected by primary radar. It suggests a possible deliberate intervention with the flight's trajectory and the disabling of the transponder.

25:04

🔌 Power Loss and System Manipulation

The script hypothesizes about the deliberate disconnection of power sources, leading to a loss of communication with the aircraft. It explores the implications of the SATCOM system going silent and the potential strategies used to avoid detection by military and civilian radar.

30:05

🛬 The Search for MH370 Continues

The video discusses the efforts to track the aircraft using Inmarsat data and the challenges of interpreting the data due to multiple potential flight paths. It highlights the importance of continuing the search for MH370 and introduces new theories and potential search areas based on various analyses.

35:07

🌟 New Evidence and Final Theories

The script presents new evidence and theories, including the use of WSPR data and the potential final route of MH370. It discusses the possibility of the aircraft being piloted deliberately until the end and the implications of the findings on the search for the wreckage.

40:08

💔 Closure for the Families

The video concludes with a call to action for renewed search efforts in new areas to find the wreckage of MH370 and provide closure for the families of the missing passengers. It emphasizes the importance of uncovering the truth behind the flight's disappearance.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Boeing 777

The Boeing 777 is a long-range, wide-body twin-engine jet airliner manufactured by Boeing Commercial Airplanes. It is one of the world's largest and most technologically advanced commercial aircraft. In the context of the video, the Boeing 777 is central to the narrative as it discusses the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, a Boeing 777 aircraft.

💡MH370

MH370 refers to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, a passenger flight that disappeared on March 8, 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. The disappearance of MH370 remains one of the biggest mysteries in aviation history, with the aircraft and its passengers never located despite extensive search efforts.

💡ACARS

Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) is a digital data link system used in aviation to transmit messages between aircraft and ground stations via VHF or satellite communication. It is used for various purposes, including sending updated weather information, flight plans, and maintenance data. In the case of MH370, ACARS played a crucial role as it provided some of the last known data about the aircraft's position and status before it disappeared.

💡SATCOM

SATCOM, short for Satellite Communication, refers to the systems and services that facilitate communication through satellite links. In aviation, SATCOM is used for various purposes, including the transmission of ACARS messages. For MH370, the SATCOM system was the last known communication link with the aircraft before it disappeared, and it has been a focal point in attempts to determine the flight's final location.

💡Transponder

A transponder is a device in aviation that responds to radio signals from ground radar stations, typically providing identification and other flight-related information. The transponder on an aircraft is crucial for air traffic control to monitor and manage aircraft in flight. In the case of MH370, the transponder was switched off at a critical point in the flight, indicating a deliberate act that led to the aircraft's disappearance from radar.

💡Primary Radar

Primary radar, also known as raw radar, is a type of radar system that sends out radio pulses and detects the reflections from these pulses to determine the location of objects, such as aircraft. Unlike secondary radar, which relies on signals from an aircraft's transponder, primary radar can detect objects even if they are not actively transmitting signals. In the case of MH370, primary radar was used to track the aircraft after its transponder was disabled.

💡Flight Level

Flight levels are specific altitudes assigned to aircraft during flight, typically in increments of 1,000 feet starting from 18,000 feet. They are used to standardize altitudes for aircraft, especially in controlled airspace, to prevent collisions and ensure efficient air traffic management. In the context of MH370, the flight level is mentioned in relation to the aircraft's climb and cruising altitude before it disappeared.

💡Radar Echo

A radar echo is the reflected signal received by radar equipment from an object, such as an aircraft or weather system, after the radar emits a radio wave. In aviation, radar echoes are used to track and monitor aircraft in real-time. The term is used in the context of MH370 to describe the faint signals captured by radar after the aircraft's transponder was switched off.

💡Inmarsat

Inmarsat is an international satellite telecommunications company that provides global mobile satellite communication services. In the context of MH370, Inmarsat's satellite communication services were used by the aircraft's ACARS system. The company's data and satellite signals became crucial in the search for MH370, as they provided some of the last known contacts with the aircraft and were used to determine potential flight paths.

💡WSPR

WSPR, or Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Protocol, is a protocol used for low-power radio transmissions that helps in understanding how radio signals propagate over large distances. It was originally designed for amateur radio enthusiasts but has been explored for potential use in tracking aircraft like MH370 by analyzing anomalies in multiple simultaneous transmissions.

Highlights

The mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is explored, focusing on the possibility of a deliberate act by someone with expert knowledge of the aircraft and its systems.

The story of MH370 is told with the goal of persuading authorities to restart the search for the missing Boeing 777 and provide closure to the families of the 239 people on board.

New potential evidence is presented based on enhanced and refined technology that may provide new clues to the aircraft's final location.

The flight was a training flight for the first officer transitioning from Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777.

The captain had a stable financial situation, no known illnesses, and was a solid, reliable member of his community with an 18,400-hour flight experience.

The aircraft's ACARS system sent out its last complete routine message via SATCOM before a period of silence from the aircraft.

The transponder's Mode S functionality was switched off, indicating deliberate interference with the flight's trajectory.

The aircraft made a sharp, almost 180-degree left turn, suggesting manual control and disconnection of the autopilot.

The SATCOM system's power failure suggests that all power sources were manually turned off, indicating a deliberate act by someone in control of the aircraft.

The aircraft continued to fly for several hours, with Inmarsat data providing seven handshakes that could be used to track its path.

The Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Protocol (WSPR) is introduced as a potential new method for tracking aircraft, using low power radio transmissions.

WSPR data corresponds with Inmarsat data, suggesting the aircraft made a series of turns towards waypoints, indicating continued manual piloting.

The WSPR data indicates the aircraft may have flown in a figure-eight pattern before its final logon, possibly to avoid detection.

The final Inmarsat logon suggests the aircraft might have been in a steep descent or was maximizing the use of remaining fuel.

Debris from MH370 has been found along the coastlines of Eastern Africa, indicating the aircraft crashed in or near the searched area.

The video calls for a renewed search effort in two new areas outside of the previously searched zones, based on veteran 777 captains' theories and WSPR data analysis.

The search for MH370 is important not only for the families of the missing but also for improvements in aviation safety and tracking.

Transcripts

00:00

(somber music)

00:04

(typewriter clicking)

00:07

(typewriter chimes)

00:10

(typewriter clicking)

00:12

(typewriter chimes)

00:15

(somber music continues)

00:36

- How can a Boeing 777, one of the biggest

00:38

and most modern aircraft in the world,

00:40

just vanish without a trace?

00:45

It can't.

00:50

Everything lost leaves a trace.

00:57

- And a Malaysia Airlines flight with 239 people on board--

01:01

- MH370. - Flight 370.

01:03

- Flight MH370... (indistinct)

01:06

- Stay back!

01:07

- There are mysteries in the world

01:09

and then there is the story of MH370.

01:13

This is a story so full of questions and theories

01:16

that it's almost impossible to tell it

01:18

without resorting to pure speculation.

01:21

This is the reason I have refrained

01:22

from covering it up until now.

01:24

But since at the time of this video's release

01:26

it's gone 10 years since 239 people

01:30

disappeared without a trace,

01:32

I've decided to make an exception.

01:34

This story is created with one goal and one goal only,

01:38

and that is to persuade the authorities

01:40

to restart the search for the missing Boeing 777.

01:44

And with that, hopefully also provide some closure

01:46

to the families, some of which I've been

01:48

in contact with before making this video.

01:51

I will, today, share with you new potential evidence

01:53

based partially on a technology

01:55

that has been enhanced and refined over the last few years,

01:58

to the point where it now possibly can provide new clues

02:01

o where this aircraft finally ended up.

02:05

This is the story of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370,

02:08

as far as we know it.

02:12

- [MH370 Captain] Good night, Malaysia 370.

02:22

On the 7th of March, 2014, a crew from Malaysian Airlines

02:26

checked in for a night duty which was to take them

02:29

from Kuala Lumpur International Airport

02:30

in Malaysia up to Beijing International in China.

02:34

Except for the late start time,

02:36

it was supposed to be a quite nice duty

02:38

with a calculated flight time

02:39

of only five hours and 34 minutes,

02:41

meaning that they would eventually

02:43

be finished in Beijing around mid-morning the following day.

02:46

The captain of the flight arrived first and signed in

02:49

at the Malaysian Airlines crew room at local time 22:50.

02:53

He was then followed by his colleague,

02:55

the first officer, around 25 minutes later.

02:59

This was planned as a training flight for the first officer,

03:02

since he was completing a transition type course

03:04

over from the Airbus A330 to the Boeing 777,

03:07

which they would be flying on this flight.

03:10

The training had gone really well up until this point,

03:13

and if everything went fine on this flight,

03:15

he would be recommended for final line check

03:17

by the captain for the following duty.

03:20

Having said that, this was the first time

03:22

that these two pilots were planned to fly together,

03:24

which might explain why the captain

03:26

had turned up a little bit earlier.

03:28

You see, it's pretty common for us instructors to do so

03:31

if we need to review someone's training file,

03:33

for example, before the flight

03:35

to check out if there's any areas

03:37

that might require special attention.

03:39

In any case, once the first officer

03:41

had also signed in, the two pilots proceeded

03:43

by going through the pre-flight briefing,

03:45

which from what they could see looked pretty straightforward.

03:49

The weather in Kuala Lumpur was generally nice and dominated

03:52

by a sub-tropical high pressure centered over Thailand,

03:55

and the weather at their destination, Beijing,

03:57

also looked quite good from what they could see.

04:00

The only potential issue was

04:01

that about two-thirds down the route,

04:03

they would be passing through a pretty strong jet stream

04:06

with high winds, which could cause a bit of turbulence,

04:09

but apart from that, it was looking pretty straightforward.

04:13

With that in mind, and no NOTAMs affecting

04:15

the flight either, the pilots then turned

04:17

their attention to the flight plan.

04:19

There were two alternates listed for Beijing,

04:21

and taking into consideration both of these,

04:24

the pilots decided on a final fuel of 49,100 kilos,

04:28

which was in line with the expected amount for this flight,

04:31

neither substantially more nor less than required.

04:34

This fuel would give the aircraft an approximate endurance

04:37

of seven hours and 31 minutes, around two hours longer

04:41

than the anticipated flight time,

04:43

and that will, of course, become very important in this story.

04:47

So who were the pilots

04:49

that were going to be in charge of this flight then?

04:52

Well, the captain was a 53-year-old

04:53

with a 33-year great track record in Malaysia Airlines.

04:57

He was married with three children,

04:59

and on his spare time, he was involved

05:01

in a local opposition party, helped deliver groceries

05:04

to elderly, and tinker with some home electronics.

05:08

He had also started a YouTube channel,

05:09

which by the way is still there,

05:11

where he showed how to mend certain home appliances,

05:14

and also, crucially, where he showed off his home simulator,

05:17

which he had built to be able to practice his trade at home.

05:21

This simulator would later be investigated thoroughly.

05:24

It had been erased weeks before the flight,

05:26

but the investigator still found

05:27

some manually-entered waypoints of interest

05:30

in a backup memory, but without it proving

05:33

to be anything conclusive.

05:35

In any case, the captain had stable finances,

05:38

no known illnesses, and was regarded as a solid,

05:41

reliable member of his community.

05:43

In terms of his aviation career,

05:45

it had started when he was accepted

05:46

into a sponsored program for Malaysian Airlines

05:49

already back in 1981.

05:51

He completed his licenses,

05:53

and then started flying for them back in 1983.

05:56

He then worked his way up the ranks, starting

05:59

on the Fokker F27, and then the 737-200,

06:02

Airbus A300, and finally,

06:04

he got his first command on the Fokker 50.

06:07

This was then followed by command on the 737 -400,

06:10

and the Airbus A330,

06:11

until actually on my birthday,line:1 the 22nd of September 1998,

06:15

he received his command on the Boeing 777,

06:18

which he then continued to operate

06:19

until the day of this flight.

06:22

His good track record and seniority eventually gave him

06:25

the opportunity to also become a type-rating instructor,

06:28

as well as an examiner on this type,

06:30

and it was in this capacity that he was going

06:32

to operate Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 on this evening.

06:36

He had a total experience of just over 18,400 hours,

06:40

and 8,659 of those had been flown on the Boeing 777.

06:45

The first officer was 27 years old and single.

06:48

He had also been accepted into the airline as a cadet pilot,

06:51

started in 2008, and he had been flying initially

06:54

on the Boeing 737-400.

06:57

He had then changed over to the Airbus A330 fleet in 2012,

07:00

and then on to the Boeing 777 in November 2013,

07:04

just a few months before this flight,

07:06

and this was obviously why he was still in training.

07:09

He had a total experience of just over 2,800 hours,

07:12

and very little, only 39 hours on the type.

07:16

There is not much more mentioned about the first officer

07:18

in the final report, except that he was known

07:20

as a nice person with stable economy

07:22

and no recent major changes in his life.

07:26

Now, given the vast difference in experience,

07:28

seniority, and the fact that this was a training flight,

07:31

it can be easily assumed that the power gradient

07:34

in the cockpit would have been quite steep,

07:36

but nothing indicated any personal issues

07:38

between these two colleagues.

07:41

Both of them had also received more than the required rest

07:44

before the flight, and their licenses

07:46

and medicals were all up to date.

07:49

When the pilots had completed

07:50

their pre-flight preparation and training briefing,

07:53

they walked over to their 10 cabin crew members

07:55

that they were scheduled to operate together with.

07:58

This was a vastly experienced crew,

08:00

with the most junior attendant having flown for 13 years,

08:03

and the most senior, over 35 years.

08:05

So the briefing would have been pretty quick and efficient.

08:09

After they were finished, they all walked together

08:12

out to the aircraft that was being prepared

08:14

for them by the ground crew outside.

08:16

It was a majestic Boeing 777-200ER,

08:21

equipped with two Rolls Royce Trent 892B turbofan engines,

08:25

and it was in perfect working condition

08:27

according to the tech log.

08:29

The only point of interest was that

08:30

the flight crew oxygen cylinder had been topped up

08:33

just prior to the flight, but this was a routine maintenance thing.

08:37

Now, there are numerous systems aboard

08:38

this aircraft that will become important for this story,

08:40

and in order to explain it, I will have to become

08:43

quite technical in some places,

08:45

but also that's kind of what we do here on the channel.

08:49

Anyway, the two pilots had decided

08:51

that the first officer was going

08:52

to be pilot flying for this flight,

08:53

meaning that he immediately started completing

08:55

the pre-flight preparation

08:56

as soon as he arrived to the cockpit.

08:59

This included inputting flight information,

09:02

like the flight number and the airline info

09:04

into the FMC CDU, which he did at time 23:56:08.

09:10

Now, you might wonder how we can know that so exactly,

09:13

and this has to do with a system

09:14

that will play an incredibly important role here,

09:17

the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System,

09:21

more commonly referred to as ACARS.

09:23

This is a digital data link system,

09:26

which connects data providers on the ground

09:27

directly to the aircraft via either VHF

09:30

or satellite communications.

09:32

It enables people on the ground

09:33

to send things like updated weather,

09:35

flight plans and even make calls

09:37

or send messages directly to the aircraft when it's airborne.

09:41

And the part of this system which is going

09:42

to be most important here

09:44

is the satellite communications or SATCOM system.

09:48

The ACARS system booted up and established a link

09:50

through the SATCOM at time 23:54.

09:52

And about one minute and 20 seconds later, it captured

09:55

the first officer's inputs as I just mentioned before.

09:59

This showed that the system worked fine

10:01

in the beginning of this flight, and it's worth noting here

10:03

that the system uses two different satellite antennas,

10:07

depending on if the aircraft's

10:08

navigation system is working or not.

10:11

Remember that.

10:12

Anyway, as the first officer was working away

10:14

in the cockpit, he soon received an ACARS message

10:17

containing something known as a NOTOC.

10:20

Frequent viewers of this channel will know that this stands

10:22

for notification to captain, and is normally sent out

10:26

if the aircraft will be carrying dangerous goods.

10:29

In this case, there were actually no dangerous goods on board,

10:32

just some special load being loaded,

10:34

consisting of several tons of mangosteens

10:37

which apparently had a tendency to leak juice and water

10:40

and therefore, had to be checked closely.

10:42

The NOTOC message confirmed that the cargo had been checked

10:45

and that it wasn't leaking, but what it didn't say

10:48

was that there were also nearly two and a half tons

10:50

of lithium ion batteries loaded on board.

10:53

But these batteries were individually packaged

10:56

and stored in such a way that they

10:57

were not considered dangerous goods,

10:59

and they have therefore been ruled out

11:01

as a possible cause for what's about to happen.

11:04

Eventually, the captain returned from his walk-around,

11:06

and together with his colleague, they completed the rest

11:08

of the preflight preparations and briefings.

11:11

At time 23:25, the first officer called up Kuala Lumpur delivery

11:15

to request their departure clearance.

11:22

The delivery controller told them that they were clear

11:24

to follow the PIBOS-1A departure

11:27

from Runway 32R and initially climbed

11:29

to 6,000 feet with transponder code 2157.

11:40

This was read back by the first officer

11:42

and less than two minutes later,

11:44

Malaysia 370 also requested push and start,

11:47

which was almost immediately approved.

12:12

After the pushback, the aircraft received its taxi clearance

12:15

and then started taxiing out

12:16

towards runway 32 Right through the dark Malaysian night.

12:20

And for anyone watching the aircraft,

12:21

everything looked completely normal,

12:24

but this was going to be the last time

12:26

anyone saw this aircraft with their own eyes.

12:29

So what about the passengers then?

12:32

Well, there were 227 passengers on board,

12:35

coming from 14 different nations.

12:37

153 were from China, making those the largest group,

12:40

followed by 50 from Malaysia and seven from Indonesia.

12:44

Two of those passengers were later found to have been flying

12:47

on stolen passports and they were identified

12:49

as Iranians, who were most likely looking

12:52

for refugee status and were not considered a threat.

12:56

None of the other passengers raised any type of suspicion,

12:59

and this means that in total, there were 239 passengers

13:02

and crew on board when the giant Boeing 777 lined up

13:05

on runway 32R and started spooling up its engines.

13:10

And I'll tell you all about what happened next,

13:12

right after this...

13:13

Talking about leaving traces,

13:15

did you know that there's a whole industry out there,

13:17

known as data brokers who live off selling

13:19

your digital traces off to the highest bidder?

13:22

What they do is they snoop up things like your address book,

13:25

contact details, financial data and even family information

13:28

and then sell it on to scammers, financial institutions

13:31

and even spam mails.

13:33

Now this is totally legal unless you tell

13:36

each and every one of them to stop

13:38

and that's where today's sponsor, Incogni, comes in.

13:41

Incogni basically works as a guardian

13:43

of your digital footprint

13:45

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13:46

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Thank you, Incogni. Now let's continue.

14:29

At 40 minutes and 37 seconds past midnight

14:32

on the 8th of March, Kuala Lumpur tower

14:34

cleared Malaysian Airlines flight 370 for takeoff.

14:46

The first officer was at the controls

14:48

at this point and had therefore,

14:49

handed over the radio to the captain and after the engines

14:51

were stabilized, he pushed

14:52

the TO/GA buttons and the aircraft

14:54

started accelerating down the runway.

14:57

At 42 minutes past midnight,

14:58

the SATCOM system recorded that the aircraft was airborne

15:01

and it then continued to transmit

15:03

the aircraft's identification codes

15:04

together with all of the other normal data

15:07

and this just showed that everything

15:09

was completely normal at that stage.

15:12

The procedures in Kuala Lumpur was for the pilots

15:14

to automatically switch over to the departure frequency

15:17

after takeoff so that's exactly what the captain now also did.

15:21

Once he called up and identified himself

15:23

the departure controller told them

15:24

to cancel the standard instrument departure

15:27

and instead proceed direct towards a waypoint called IGARI

15:30

and continue the climb to flight level 180.

15:33

It's pretty common that controllers

15:35

give clearances like this especially at night

15:38

when there's typically less traffic

15:39

and therefore easier to give these kind of directs.

15:43

The captain just read back the clearance

15:45

and then selected IGARI as the active waypoint in the FMC.

15:49

The first officer would have then verified it,

15:51

told him to execute the routing

15:52

and then selected flight level 180 in the mode control panel

15:55

for the captain to verify just like they

15:58

would have done thousands of times before.

16:01

At this stage of the flight,

16:02

everything was still completely normal

16:04

and when you listen to the ATC tapes,

16:06

the voice level of the captain

16:08

is completely relaxed and routine.

16:10

The aircraft continued its climb

16:12

towards IGARI and they were eventually changed over

16:14

to the next frequency, Lumpur Radar on 132.6.

16:19

This was going to be the controller looking after them

16:21

until they reached IGARI

16:22

and the FIR boundary towards Vietnam.

16:33

The captain read back this handover more or less exactly

16:36

as he should by confirming the new frequency

16:38

and giving his call sign, again sounding completely normal.

16:42

When he called up the new area controller,

16:44

he was told that they could continue

16:46

their climb to flight level 250 which he also read back

16:49

and only three minutes later, they received further clearance

16:52

to climb to the requested cruise level, flight level 350.

16:57

As flight 370 progressed up towards the northeast,

17:00

they were still fully visible on radar

17:02

for all involved ATC units.

17:04

And here, it's probably a good time

17:06

to start explaining a bit about radars in general.

17:10

There are two different types of radar

17:11

to keep in mind for this episode:

17:13

primary radar, which is also referred to as raw radar

17:17

and secondary radar.

17:19

Under normal circumstances,

17:20

commercial air traffic always uses both of them

17:23

but the secondary radar is what gives

17:25

the majority of the information.

17:28

It is dependent on a small radio transmitter

17:30

known as a transponder on board the aircraft

17:32

and this transponder will be identified

17:34

by a four-letter numerical code

17:37

with numbers from zero to seven.

17:39

Remember that was the code

17:40

that the first officer received earlier

17:41

as part of the departure clearance.

17:44

Now there are two transponders on board the aircraft

17:46

and the active one will,

17:47

when it's activated by the pilots,

17:49

send air traffic control loads of information like position,

17:52

altitude, speed and even MCP selections in some cases.

17:56

The transponders also communicate

17:58

with other traffic and therefore enables TCAS maneuvering.

18:01

And it's these transponders that makes apps

18:03

like FlightRadar24 work since anyone can pick up

18:06

the ADS-B signals that they transmit.

18:10

But the key thing to remember here

18:11

is that the transponders are on board the aircraft

18:14

and without them functioning, secondary radar will not work

18:18

and neither will those websites or TCAS.

18:22

And this brings us to the primary radar

18:24

which is an invention that has been with us

18:26

for a very long time by now.

18:29

In this essence, it works on a simple idea

18:31

of sending out a radio pulse and then measuring any waves

18:35

that might hit a target and then bounce back to the receiver.

18:38

The direction those returning waves are then coming from

18:41

will give a bearing towards the target.

18:44

Obviously, this technology has become much more refined

18:47

since it was first invented, making it much more complex

18:50

but you get the general idea.

18:53

This type of radar can be used to see things

18:55

that are not transmitting any information voluntarily

18:58

and is therefore often used by the military.

19:01

But given the nature of shortwave radio signals,

19:04

this type of radar has a quite limited range

19:06

and cannot accurately track altitude and speed very well,

19:10

something that will become important soon.

19:14

At one minute and 14 seconds past one in the morning

19:17

the captain of Malaysian Flight 370,

19:19

called up the Lumpur Area controller

19:21

to advise him that they were now level at flight level 350.

19:32

This was acknowledged by the controller

19:34

but this was not a necessary call to make by the captain.

19:37

It was more of a courtesy thing.

19:39

But you could still hear from the sound of his voice

19:42

that he was relaxed when he made this call

19:45

from the way that his intonation

19:46

kind of dropped towards the end.

19:52

And it's from here on that I have a feeling

19:55

that we can see the first indication

19:56

of something being slightly out of order.

19:59

Now I want to make it absolutely clear

20:01

that nothing in the final report

20:02

has highlighted that whatever happened

20:04

started as early as here

20:06

but I personally reacted to something

20:08

that was just briefly mentioned in the report.

20:11

You see, about seven minutes after the captain called in

20:14

that they were level at flight level 350,

20:16

he called up again and reported the very same thing.

20:25

In the report, this was highlighted as anomalous

20:27

but the experts didn't think

20:29

that it was worth paying any attention to but I disagree.

20:34

You see, we pilots tend to make these extra calls

20:37

for two different reasons.

20:39

The first is that we hav just simply forgotten about it

20:42

and therefore, call again just to be on the safe side

20:44

but like I said earlier, this was not a mandatory call to make.

20:48

The other reason we do it is because we've been away

20:51

from the frequency for a while maybe because we have

20:53

been fiddling with the radios or turned down the volume

20:56

or something else, and we just want to make sure

20:59

that ATC hasn't tried to call us while we were gone.

21:03

You see if we make that call again

21:05

and ATC just responds, "Roger" or something similar,

21:08

well then we know that they haven't been trying to call us

21:10

because if they would have,

21:12

they would now repeat any other messages

21:14

that they had previously tried to send.

21:17

So with that in mind, there were seven minutes

21:19

between the first call and the second call

21:22

which means that something might have happened

21:24

to take the captain away from the radio between those calls.

21:29

The other thing that I reacted to

21:31

was the tone of voice of the captain

21:33

when he made that second call.

21:40

Again, the experts in the report

21:42

said that they couldn't detect any stress

21:44

in the voice from the recordings

21:46

but what I am hearing is a clear difference in pitch

21:49

between the first and the second call.

21:52

In the first, the captain sounds relaxed

21:54

with a clear dropping intonation towards the end

21:57

and in the second, he just sounds busy,

22:00

like he's working on something

22:01

at the same time that he's making that call.

22:12

This, the sound of workload,

22:14

is something that I often hear in the simulator

22:17

as well as when I'm doing training in the aircraft

22:19

and that's why I reacted to it when I heard it.

22:23

Anyway, as expected the controller just responded with...

22:30

Now, this doesn't have to mean anything and I don't want

22:33

to speculate any further on this detail

22:35

but I thought it was worth to highlight,

22:37

given what's soon about to happen.

22:41

So the aircraft continued its cleared track up towards IGARI

22:44

and within minutes of that last call from the captain,

22:47

the ACARS sent out its last complete routine message

22:50

via SATCOM down to the ground station.

22:54

After this, there would be a complete silence

22:56

from the aircraft SATCOM for almost one hour and 17 minutes.

23:01

This detail is super important because it tells us a lot

23:04

about what likely happened in the cockpit

23:06

but I'll get back to that soon.

23:08

At time 01:19:24, the Lumpur Area controller

23:13

instructed Malaysian Airlines Flight 370

23:15

to contact Ho Chi Minh control on frequency 120.9.

23:24

This happened about one minute

23:26

before the aircraft flew past IGARI,

23:28

so they were still technically in Malaysian airspace

23:30

but would soon pass into Vietnam.

23:33

And this is where the very last radio transmission occurred

23:37

from Flight 370 with the captain simply answering...

23:47

Now for some people,

23:49

that might have sounded like an ominous farewell

23:51

but what I heard was once again someone who was busy,

23:54

so busy in fact that he didn't complete the readback correctly.

23:59

Like I mentioned before, all frequencies we are given

24:01

must always be read back to avoid mistakes

24:04

but that was not done in this call.

24:07

In any case, now things started happening very quickly.

24:11

Five seconds after the aircraft flew past IGARI

24:14

the Mode S functionality of the transponder,

24:16

that was the part that gives

24:17

that extra information was suddenly switched off.

24:21

Now the only way to switch off only that

24:23

is to turn the transponder knob

24:25

in the cockpit from TA/RA to the altitude-off position.

24:31

A technical malfunction would have removed

24:32

all signals completely and immediately

24:35

but in this case, it took another 37 seconds

24:37

for the secondary radar return to completely disappear

24:41

and as it did, the aircraft abruptly

24:43

stopped following the planned route.

24:46

We know this because the primary radar recorded a turn

24:49

and what it registered was that after the initial right turn

24:52

towards a point called BITOD, the aircraft now started

24:55

a sharp, almost 180-degree left turn instead.

25:00

Now Boeing tried to replicate this turn in the simulator

25:03

but weren't able to match up

25:05

the turn and the timings perfectly.

25:08

The only simulation that got close

25:10

included a manually-flown turn,

25:12

meaning that the autopilot must have been disconnected.

25:15

And why is that you might ask?

25:17

Well, the autopilot will only allow certain bank angles

25:20

and this turn was so tight that a much steeper bank

25:24

must have been used, at least, partially throughout the turn

25:26

in order to accomplish it.

25:28

The only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from this

25:31

is that someone had now started interfering

25:33

with the flight's trajectory on purpose.

25:36

The timing and position of where all of this took place

25:39

also looks far from random.

25:41

IGARI was the point just before the FIR boundary

25:44

between Malaysia and Vietnam which meant

25:46

that the controller from a new country

25:48

would now be taking over the responsibility for the flight.

25:51

The Malaysian controller which formerly still had

25:53

the responsibility had handed the aircraft over

25:56

and therefore, probably didn't monitor it too closely.

25:59

And the new Ho Chi Minh controller would likely wait

26:02

until the aircraft called him up

26:04

before starting to pay much attention to it

26:06

which is also exactly what now happened.

26:10

Given this, it was the perfect place

26:12

to initiate this maneuver

26:13

if the intention was to try to avoid detection.

26:17

And now you might ask why disengage the autopilot?

26:19

Why not just complete the turn?

26:22

Well, just to the north of IGARI, Thailand has something known

26:26

as an Air Defense Identification Zone

26:28

which on a high level chart,

26:30

shows up as two dotted parallel purple lines.

26:34

As the name suggests, the Thai military

26:36

would be monitoring any traffic entering

26:39

into that zone and follow it up

26:40

unless it was properly identified,

26:42

had a working transponder and followed a filed flight plan.

26:47

By carefully avoiding that zone, whoever was now in control

26:50

would also avoid any direct scrutiny from the Thai military

26:53

and given the direction the aircraft was now turning,

26:56

it's likely that anyone looking at the primary radar would assume

26:59

that the aircraft was just diverting

27:01

still under Malaysian control.

27:03

This turn would also position the aircraft

27:06

between that Thai ADIZ and Airway M765,

27:10

which would avoid any opposite traffic.

27:14

This shows us that whoever was now in control

27:17

was likely very well versed with the airspace structure

27:20

over this particular area

27:21

and that this was likely very carefully planned out.

27:26

After the U-turn was finished,

27:28

the aircraft continued in a semi-straight line

27:30

down towards the southwest and a VOR beacon known

27:33

as Victor Papa Golf near Penang in Malaysia.

27:37

The track showed small deviations consistent

27:40

with an aircraft being flown manually and not on autopilot.

27:44

Now since these radar echoes were only captured

27:46

on raw radar, it was impossible

27:48

to get any reliable speed or altitude data from them.

27:52

It is possible that the aircraft descended slightly

27:55

during this segment maybe to gain a higher true air speed

27:58

as it was overflying Malaysia.

28:00

This theory was further corroborated

28:02

by the fact that a Celcom mobile mast on the island of Penang

28:06

briefly detected a mobile phone signal

28:08

which was later confirmed

28:10

to have come from the first office's phone.

28:12

Those type of signals generally have

28:14

a very limited vertical range,

28:16

maximum around 30,000 feet and often much lower than that

28:20

but given that atmospheric conditions

28:22

have huge impact on the range,

28:24

it's very hard to speculate here.

28:27

But since turning off the mobile phone

28:29

is a checklist item in most airlines this could indicate

28:33

that the first officer was trying to communicate here

28:36

but no call signals ever came through

28:38

and the signal was only detected for a very short while.

28:43

But what is really intriguing during this segment

28:45

of the flight is another system

28:47

that we have already talked about a little bit

28:49

which is the SATCOM system.

28:51

You see the SATCOM sends out regular interrogations every hour

28:56

if no other information is being transmitted.

28:59

And when the ground base station tried

29:01

to uplink an ACARS message

29:03

at time three minutes past two in the morning,

29:05

it didn't receive any acknowledgement

29:07

back from the aircraft SATCOM.

29:10

So what does that mean then?

29:12

Well if the ACARS system was just switched off or failed,

29:17

the link would still take place.

29:19

It would just communicate the fact that ACARS wasn't working.

29:22

And if the system was manually logged off from the cockpit,

29:25

this would also be shown in that log.

29:28

And because none of that happened,

29:30

the most likely reason for this SATCOM loss

29:32

was a power failure to the system itself.

29:36

Now this system can be powered

29:38

from several different electrical buses

29:40

and from most of the aircraft's redundant power sources

29:43

so this fact has led some

29:45

incredibly-experienced Boeing 777 pilots

29:48

whose excellent work I will be linking to

29:50

in the description, by the way,

29:52

to believe that whoever was in charge of the aircraft

29:54

after that initial turn must have

29:56

manually turned off all of those sources.

30:00

This can be done by deselecting both

30:02

the primary and backup generators

30:04

from their buses using the buttons on the overhead panel.

30:08

After that, the aircraft would react

30:10

by trying to auto start the APU

30:12

in order to replace those systems.

30:14

So the person in charge would then have to put

30:16

the APU switch to on and then back off again

30:18

to stop that auto start from happening.

30:21

If that would happen, that would then trigger

30:23

the Ram Air Turbine, the rat to be activated either manually

30:27

or automatically and it would start

30:28

to provide electrical power

30:30

for the most critical systems like primary flight displays,

30:33

navigation displays and navigation equipment

30:36

but not the autopilot.

30:38

Hydraulic movement of the flight controls

30:40

would not be a problem

30:41

since both engines were still working

30:43

and providing hydraulics so maneuvering the aircraft manually

30:46

would still work perfectly fine.

30:48

Now, of course, removing the primary power sources

30:51

in this way would cause everything else

30:53

except emergency lighting to go black in the aircraft

30:56

and it's likely that this would make things very difficult

30:59

for both the crew and the passengers in the back.

31:02

And while we're on the subject of the passengers and crew,

31:05

I want to point out here that we really have no idea

31:08

about what actually happened to them.

31:11

Some theories suggested that whoever was in charge

31:14

might have depressurized the cabin

31:16

in order to get everyone into their seats

31:18

and keep them under control.

31:20

This is possible to do by just opening

31:22

the outflow valves manually

31:24

whilst still keeping the air conditioning running.

31:27

The fact that the air conditioning was kept running

31:29

would provide heating and make it bearable in the cockpit

31:31

as it otherwise would become freezing cold almost immediately.

31:36

The passenger oxygen masks would then drop

31:38

in the back but the oxygen generators

31:39

in the 777 would only last for about 22 minutes or so.

31:43

But the oxygen cylinder which is providing

31:45

the cockpit crew with oxygen would last a full 27 hours

31:49

in case there's only one person using it

31:52

and it had, like I mentioned before

31:54

been topped up just that very morning.

31:57

This means that if the cabin was kept un-pressurized

32:00

without descending, the passengers

32:02

would become completely incapacitated

32:04

once the oxygen generator stopped working.

32:07

But whoever was still in the cockpit

32:10

would be able to just continue to operate just fine.

32:13

The time of useful consciousness at 35,000 feet

32:16

is about one minute, extending to a few minutes at 30,000 feet

32:20

and anyone subjected to those altitudes

32:23

without supplemental oxygen, would after that, not be able

32:26

to take any rational decisions and soon become unconscious.

32:30

After that, if no oxygen would be provided,

32:33

it would take another 20 minutes or so until death would occur.

32:40

But like I said before, we don't know for a fact what happened

32:43

and we won't know more until the aircraft is found

32:46

which is why it is so important that we continue the search.

32:52

Now flying an aircraft at these altitudes manually

32:55

whilst possibly wearing an oxygen mask

32:57

and with only rudimentary navigation available

32:59

would be quite tiring and that's likely why

33:02

the radar images were showing these small heading variations.

33:07

Anyway, at this stage the aircraft continued

33:09

to be tracked by both civilian and military raw radar

33:13

as it continued its way around the south of Penang

33:16

where it started turning right through the Malacca Strait.

33:19

There were temporary lapses in the radar coverage

33:22

but all in all, it painted a fairly clear picture

33:25

of an aircraft flying in a controlled way

33:27

and not in any way random.

33:31

So why wasn't the aircraft intercepted

33:34

or tracked more closely then?

33:37

Well, this was due to a combination

33:39

of factors and misunderstandings

33:41

between different air traffic control units

33:42

and the operations controllers in Malaysia Airlines headquarters.

33:47

When the aircraft first disappeared from radar,

33:49

it took around 20 minutes before the Ho Chi Minh controller

33:53

called up the Malaysian controller

33:54

to ask about where the aircraft actually was.

33:59

Now this was significantly longer

34:00

than the standard five minutes it should take

34:02

before a query is sent but like I mentioned before

34:05

this happened at an intersection between two different countries

34:08

in the middle of the night, so it's likely that the controllers

34:12

were just dealing with other traffic

34:14

and didn't monitor their strips too closely.

34:17

When the Malaysian controller

34:18

who was still technically responsible

34:20

for the flight was made aware of the missing aircraft,

34:23

he eventually contacted Malaysian Airlines who confirmed

34:26

that they could see the aircraft flying up through Cambodia.

34:30

This meant that the air traffic controllers

34:32

now started contacting their colleagues along the route

34:34

that the aircraft was thought to be flying

34:37

to see if they could get into contact with them

34:39

and this in turn meant that none of them

34:42

saw the lonely faint radar echo

34:44

that was traveling southwest instead.

34:47

It was later found out

34:48

that the Malaysian Airlines' tracking software

34:50

was basing the position of the aircraft on predictions

34:53

when it didn't receive any real data

34:56

and that's what had caused that initial confusion.

35:00

Now the military did see the aircraft turning left after IGARI

35:03

but since it wasn't violating any new airspace,

35:06

they assumed it was just a normal air turnback

35:08

and didn't raise any further alarms

35:10

or send anyone up to intercept.

35:14

It was only later, with the help of radar playbacks

35:16

that the picture of MH370's true path became clearer.

35:21

After the aircraft had turned right

35:23

up towards the northwest it looked like it was heading

35:26

towards a waypoint called VAMPI.

35:28

The SATCOM system still had not logged on at this stage

35:30

so we can assume that the aircraft was still flying

35:33

in a power degraded state,

35:34

possibly only with the ram air turbine as a power source

35:37

but even if that was the case,

35:39

navigation would still not be a problem.

35:42

The VPG VOR was still well within range,

35:45

meaning that the aircraft could use raw data navigation

35:48

to find VAMPI and the waypoint could also be displayed

35:51

on the aircraft's navigation display,

35:53

so whoever was flying could just point the nose towards it.

35:57

VAMPI was soon passed

35:58

and the now more and more faint radar echo

36:01

continued flying up in the general direction

36:03

of airway N571 towards another waypoint called MEKAR.

36:08

And it's soon after the aircraft passed slightly to the south

36:11

of that waypoint, at time 02:22:12

36:14

that all conventional radar traces

36:16

from this flight completely disappeared.

36:24

Now there is a real possibility

36:26

that there were military radars picking up signals

36:28

from this aircraft for longer than this

36:31

but given the sensitivity around showing military capability

36:34

or positions of mobile radars,

36:36

we haven't seen any such information come forward.

36:39

So this means that from this point onwards

36:42

we are now going into the unknown

36:44

and with that, comes speculation or hypothesis

36:47

which you all know I try to avoid on this channel

36:50

so let's instead try to stay with what we do know.

36:55

In order to further track this aircraft,

36:57

the investigators, scientific community,

36:59

and several commercial companies

37:01

had to start using any data received in completely new ways

37:05

and a great example of this, is the Inmarsat data.

37:09

Inmarsat is, as the name suggests,

37:11

a company providing satellite communication services

37:13

and it was through their satellite

37:15

that the SATCOM system for the aircraft ACARS was operating.

37:20

The signals these satellites

37:21

were sending were never designed to track aircrafts

37:24

but since there were signals exchanged

37:26

with MH370, those signals could be reverse-engineered

37:30

to provide a crude singular position indicator

37:33

every time that they appeared.

37:36

The way this was done was basically

37:37

by mimicking certain parts of the GPS system.

37:41

You see each GPS satellite

37:43

is basically an extremely accurate

37:45

timing device and when a device

37:47

on earth like your phone

37:48

or, in this case, a Boeing 777 connects to one of them,

37:51

the GPS satellite transmits

37:53

a quick signal which basically says

37:55

this is where I am and this is the time right now.

37:59

That signal then travels at the speed

38:00

of light which still takes a certain amount of time

38:03

to arrive to your device.

38:05

That time is measured to determine how far away you are

38:09

from that GPS satellite and with the satellite's position

38:12

and your distance from it, we can determine

38:14

that you are somewhere along the radius of a circle.

38:18

Then obviously your device will connect to multiple satellites

38:21

with each one of them drawing its own circle

38:23

and where all of these circles meet,

38:26

well, that's where you are.

38:28

So in the case of the Inmarsat data,

38:29

this same technique could basically also be used.

38:32

Each time the aircraft connected to the satellite using

38:34

the SATCOM system, the time its system took

38:37

to respond to the satellite signals was recorded.

38:41

The same happened at regular intervals

38:43

when the satellite checked that the plane was still connected

38:46

and each of these connections,

38:48

seven of them in total are the famous handshakes

38:51

that were reported about basically everywhere.

38:54

Every one of those handshakes

38:55

could then be used to place the missing aircraft

38:57

somewhere along a circle at a specific point of time

39:00

and that process of defining a circle or arc

39:03

is called burst timing offset or BTO.

39:07

But this was not the only information

39:09

that the Inmarsat signals could provide.

39:11

Analysts could also pick up another value

39:13

in the signal, something known

39:14

as burst frequency offset or BFO.

39:18

BFO gave information that could help

39:20

the investigators determine how

39:22

the aircraft was moving in relation to the satellite.

39:25

As its name suggests, it involved studying

39:28

the actual frequencies of the signal that the satellite received

39:31

and then how they differed from the expected frequencies.

39:35

Think of this like the way an ambulance siren seems

39:38

to change its tone as it drives towards and then past you.

39:42

When it's coming towards you,

39:43

the sound waves are denser,

39:45

making for a higher frequency and after it goes past you,

39:48

the sound waves moves further apart,

39:50

giving the tone a lower frequency.

39:53

This is called the Doppler effect or the Doppler shift

39:56

and primary radars actually also use this

39:58

in the same way to determine,

39:59

for example, the speed of an aircraft.

40:02

Now I am, of course, oversimplifying these concepts

40:04

a bit here but in the case of MH370,

40:07

since these signals between the aircraft

40:09

and the satellite traveled mostly vertically,

40:12

the burst frequency offset or BFO was instead used

40:15

to help investigators determine

40:17

whether the aircraft was climbing or descending.

40:20

Now those of you who have been paying attention

40:23

will have noticed that I have said

40:24

that the SATCOM system was not working

40:27

so how could the Inmarsat analyst get any of these handshakes?

40:31

Well, here is where we get to a really interesting development

40:35

that happened at time 02:25:27.

40:39

Then, all of a sudden the previously

40:41

non-responsive SATCOM system of MH370

40:44

suddenly came back to life

40:45

and proceeded to start sending a logon request to the satellite.

40:50

This would later be referred to as the first handshake.

40:55

This happened almost exactly one hour

40:57

after the aircraft had completed its turn

40:59

after IGARI and the interesting bit

41:01

is that the burst frequency offset value

41:03

in this first handshake was deemed unreliable

41:06

due to a quite large frequency error.

41:10

And what's making that so interesting then?

41:12

Well, it turns out that the quartz crystals used

41:16

in the SATCOM radio transmitters needed

41:18

to be kept at a constant temperature

41:20

to avoid big frequency oscillations.

41:23

This was achieved with the help

41:25

of something known as an oven-controlled crystal oscillator

41:28

which was basically a temperature controller

41:30

and it needed time to warm up

41:33

after a lengthy power interruption.

41:35

So it is likely that it hadn't reached the correct temperature

41:39

at this point when the first logon message was sent,

41:42

hence the BFO frequency error.

41:44

And this is how we know that the aircraft

41:47

was likely powered down up until just prior to this point.

41:51

Science is truly amazing!

41:55

Now this first handshake also lacked a valid flight

41:58

and company ID which the aircraft

42:00

previously had transmitted correctly.

42:04

We cannot know this for sure,

42:05

but if the aircraft's power had been manually restored

42:08

at this point, well then the person in command

42:12

would likely also know that the SATCOM system

42:14

would soon boot up and start sending out data.

42:18

So in order to stay hidden, he would have had to manually go

42:21

into the multifunctional display

42:23

and disable all communications

42:25

through the communications manager page

42:27

before the satellite communication unit,

42:29

the SDU became fully operational.

42:33

If this was done this way, this would also raise the flight

42:36

and company info, which is exactly

42:38

what the data also showed.

42:41

So you can see, even though no data was actually sent out,

42:44

with a lot of ingenuity, the signals themselves

42:47

can actually tell us a lot about what was likely going on.

42:51

We also know, for example,

42:52

that the navigation system was working

42:54

because of which antenna

42:55

the SATCOM system was using when it started transmitting.

42:58

Like I said, amazing.

43:01

So using the Inmarsat data, we know for sure

43:04

that the aircraft continued to fly,

43:06

long enough to allow a total of seven handshakes

43:09

where the first and the last were logon requests

43:12

sent by the aircraft itself.

43:14

Like I explained before, these logon requests

43:16

were most probably caused by power interruptions,

43:18

where the last one was likely caused by the fuel starvation

43:21

of one or possibly both engines,

43:23

after the aircraft had flown

43:25

for around seven hours and 35 minutes.

43:28

That last handshake came at time 08:19 Malaysian time,

43:32

which corresponds quite well with the endurance

43:34

of the aircraft based on the recorded fuel.

43:37

These handshakes occurred roughly every hour,

43:39

since the system was sent to send out a ping every hour

43:42

unless other SATCOM activities were initiated.

43:45

Two of the handshakes were caused

43:47

by ground-based satellite calls

43:49

from the Malaysian Airlines Operations Center,

43:51

who reached the cockpit but was left unanswered.

43:54

Even so, they reset the hourly timing of the other handshakes,

43:59

and that's the reason why all of these seven handshakes

44:01

were not happening on the same hourly intervals.

44:05

But of course, we now have a huge problem.

44:11

Since the Inmarsat data was all coming

44:13

from one satellite, the arcs created

44:16

by these seven handshakes created multiple possible routes

44:19

that the aircraft might have flown,

44:21

and therefore an enormous potential search area.

44:24

Several hugely accomplished pilots and investigators

44:27

have come up with very plausible scenarios

44:30

on how the aircraft must have been flown

44:31

after that last radar position to both align

44:35

with all of those seven handshakes and avoid detection.

44:39

Almost everyone agrees that the most likely route

44:41

includes a turn from the previously north-westerly coast

44:44

around the area of a waypoint called NILAM

44:47

onto a more south-westerly course.

44:50

This would bring it down past the northern tip of Indonesia,

44:53

close to Banda Aceh, and sometime after that,

44:56

it might have chosen a southerly course,

44:58

straight down into the southern Indian Ocean.

45:02

I will link to some incredible investigative work made

45:05

by Captain Patrick Blelly and Jean-Luc Merchand

45:08

in the description of this video,

45:10

which lays out a very plausible final route.

45:14

But what I really want to do now

45:16

is to also look at the possibility

45:17

that there actually might be more physical evidence

45:20

of where this aircraft finally ended up.

45:23

All of the evidence that I've presented to you so far,

45:25

points to a deliberate action from someone on board,

45:28

with expert knowledge of the aircraft,

45:31

its systems, and the airspace it was flying through.

45:34

But a question that has been nagging me

45:37

is that would someone who has obviously planned this

45:40

so thoroughly to avoid detection,

45:42

bring the aircraft out to this point

45:44

and then just turn the aircraft south

45:46

and wait several hours until it ran out of fuel?

45:50

It feels a bit unlikely given how active this person was

45:54

during those initial parts of the maneuver,

45:56

and I wouldn't be surprised

45:58

if he continued to be as active until the very end.

46:01

But again, this will be hard

46:03

to prove without further physical evidence.

46:07

And it now looks like we might possibly have just that.

46:13

You see, back in 2008, an American astrophysicist

46:16

by the name of Joseph Hooton Taylor Jr.

46:19

started working on something

46:20

called the Weak Signal Propagation Reporter Protocol,

46:23

or WSPR for short.

46:26

He had previously received a Nobel Prize in Physics

46:28

back in 1993 for his work on pulsars,

46:31

but he was also a keen amateur radio enthusiast.

46:35

WSPR is a protocol for low power radio transmissions

46:38

that explores how low, medium,

46:40

and high frequency transmissions propagate over large distances.

46:44

And Taylor designed computer software

46:46

that was used to analyze these signals.

46:49

When these signals move over large distances,

46:51

they sometimes scatter when they hit obstacles

46:54

in their path, and this causes tiny anomalies

46:57

in the signal strength.

46:59

This was interesting for radio amateurs

47:01

because they could sometimes use those obstacles

47:03

to improve overall reception,

47:05

and crucially, one feature in the WSPR protocol

47:08

is that the reception from thousands

47:10

of these signals have been uploaded

47:12

into a shared database and stored all the way back to 2008.

47:17

Now, I want to be absolutely clear here

47:20

and say that Taylor himself never designed WSPR

47:23

to be used for the tracking of aircraft

47:24

neither did he actually think that it was possible.

47:28

But back in 2021, an avionics system engineer

47:31

called Richard Godfrey started exploring

47:33

the possibility of using the WSPR database

47:35

together with algorithms to look for anomalies

47:38

in several different simultaneous transmissions

47:40

as a kind of poor man's primary radar.

47:44

Theoretically, if you know

47:46

the exact location of the transmitter and the receiver,

47:48

together with the time of day

47:50

and about a million other factors,

47:52

there might be a possibility to use tiny,

47:54

concurring anomalies in several of these signals

47:57

to track something like an aircraft.

48:00

And the really cool thing

48:01

is that this technology samples thousands

48:04

of signals every two minutes,

48:06

which could potentially give us much

48:08

more information than we previously had.

48:11

Godfrey understood this, and from 2021 until today,

48:14

he and his colleagues, Dr. Hannes Coetzee

48:17

and Professor Simon Maskell

48:19

have been trying to analyze this database

48:21

to try and find traces of MH370.

48:24

And in a report released on the 31st of August 2023,

48:28

they claim that they have actually done just that.

48:32

Again, this video is not about

48:34

whether this technology actually can be used this way or not.

48:37

But what I find fascinating here

48:39

is that it's based on verifiable stored data.

48:42

So, just like with DNA that couldn't be used much

48:46

during the early years, but has since been refined

48:48

to incredible accuracy,

48:50

maybe there actually is something hidden

48:53

inside of these signals.

48:55

This team's trace data have actually

48:57

already improved significantly from their first results,

49:01

as their algorithms have been evolving.

49:03

And this latest report tells a quite fascinating story.

49:08

Initially, the WSPR data coincided nicely

49:11

with the existing radar information,

49:12

up until just prior to VAMPI, where it indicated

49:15

that the aircraft made a turn to a more westerly heading.

49:19

It then paralleled the assumed track

49:21

on a slightly more southerly course than indicated

49:23

by the raw radar, and this could be

49:25

because of the inherent impreciseness

49:27

of the technology, or the same from the radar,

49:30

which at that point, was at the very limit of its effective range.

49:34

In any case, the WSPR track continued up

49:37

towards the northwest, where it intercepted exactly

49:39

the arc from the first Inmarsat handshake

49:41

at time 02:28:15.

49:45

The data then indicates that the aircraft continued up

49:47

towards a point known as SANOB,

49:49

of which it made a left turn towards URDAM

49:51

or very close to what the other experts predicted

49:54

that the aircraft must have done

49:55

to continue avoiding military radars

49:57

and additional scrutiny by ATC.

50:00

Now, I won't go into all of the details

50:03

of the route that the WSPR data indicated,

50:04

but I want to highlight a few important things.

50:08

This data pointed to a track

50:09

that wasn't completely straight down

50:12

into the Southern Indian Ocean.

50:13

Instead, it showed a series of turns,

50:16

each of which was pointing towards an existing waypoint,

50:19

but not ever on the same airway.

50:22

This corresponds nicely with an aircraft

50:24

that was still being piloted, but in a planned way

50:27

to avoid interfering with existing airways,

50:30

where a potential traffic conflict could arise.

50:32

Remember, it would not be seen on TCAS,

50:35

nor could whoever was flying it see other traffic.

50:39

If the intention was to not be detected,

50:42

this type of behavior would make perfect sense,

50:44

since its ultimate destination

50:45

would be very hard to predict

50:47

in case it was partially being monitored.

50:50

The WSPR data also suggested

50:52

that the aircraft slowed down slightly

50:54

during two different intervals

50:56

of its jagged flight down towards the south,

50:58

which could possibly mean step climbs.

51:01

But the thing that really stood out to me was the fact

51:03

that the WSPR data corresponded almost perfectly

51:06

with all of the seven Inmarsat handshake arcs,

51:08

which is data that no one is really disputing.

51:13

Towards the end of the flight,

51:14

the WSPR position also indicated something very strange

51:19

because it looked like the aircraft

51:20

started flying in a figure-eight pattern

51:22

in between the sixth and the seventh handshake,

51:25

which would have been when the aircraft

51:26

was predicted to be running out of fuel.

51:29

The aircraft wouldn't do that by itself,

51:31

because the radar-compensating system

51:33

in the Boeing 777 is designed to compensate

51:35

for the asymmetric thrust after an engine failure,

51:37

so if this pattern was actually flown,

51:40

it must have been a deliberate act

51:42

by whoever was in controls.

51:44

Now, it is very hard to speculate on why someone

51:48

would do something like that,

51:49

but at this time it would have been daylight in that area

51:52

and the weather was clear,

51:53

so it is possible that this was done to look out

51:56

for ships in the area nearby, as a reassurance

51:59

that the aircraft's final resting place would not be seen.

52:03

The BFO from the Inmarsat data indicated

52:05

that the aircraft could have been

52:07

in a very steep descent during the last logon handshake,

52:10

as high as 14,500 feet per minute,

52:12

but that doesn't necessarily mean

52:14

that it just dove straight into the sea.

52:17

Instead, again, according to the excellent report

52:19

of Captain Blelly and Jean-Luc MĂ©rchand,

52:21

there is the possibility that the right engine flamed out

52:25

due to fuel starvation, and that this led the person in charge

52:28

to start the APU and open the crossfill valve

52:31

to maximize the use of the remaining fuel.

52:34

The APU standpipe sits a little bit lower in the tank

52:38

than the engines does so.

52:39

That gives it a little bit more access

52:41

to all available fuel and the person in command

52:44

could then have manually shut down

52:45

the remaining engine to maximize the APU use,

52:48

which would have given access to all flight controls

52:51

and systems for as long as possible, and also enable

52:54

the flaps to be extended,

52:56

which wouldn't be possible without either one engine

52:59

or the APU running.

53:01

When the last Inmarsat logon was completed,

53:03

it lacked information from, for example,

53:05

the in-flight entertainment system, which is logical

53:08

if the aircraft was being powered by only the APU,

53:10

since systems like the IFE would then have been shed

53:14

to prioritize more important systems.

53:17

According to Captain Blelly's calculations,

53:19

the aircraft could have ended up either very close

53:22

to the 7th arc if it was in a rapid dive,

53:25

or as far as 67 nautical miles further south,

53:28

if the aircraft was flown to maximize its glide

53:31

and touch down with flaps 30 selected.

53:34

The WSPR data showed a possible last position

53:36

at time 08:19:37 and after that,

53:39

there were no more correlated anomalies found.

53:42

We do know that the aircraft crashed in the ocean,

53:45

in or near the already searched area,

53:47

because both internal and external parts

53:49

of the aircraft have been found.

53:52

The confirmed piece of debris comes from a flaperon

53:54

from the right-hand wing,

53:56

as well as multiple other components,

53:57

which are almost certainly coming from MH370.

54:01

All of those pieces have been washed up along

54:03

the coastlines of Eastern Africa and islands around,

54:06

by currents that can be tracked back to this general area.

54:10

And given that some of the debris found comes

54:13

from inside of the aircraft,

54:14

it is likely that it broke up upon impact.

54:19

This horrific story have already led

54:22

to improvements in tracking commercial aircraft over oceans,

54:25

longer life for emergency locator transmitters

54:28

and better ATC procedures for tracking aircraft,

54:31

but we can't lay this to rest

54:33

before the wreckage is actually found.

54:36

Again, this is why I created this video.

54:40

Linked below here in the description are two

54:42

different theories outlining two new search areas outside

54:46

of those already searched

54:48

in the biggest search effort in aviation history.

54:51

One of those theories are based

54:52

on the skill and knowledge of two veteran 777 captains,

54:55

and the other on a widely-contested new application

54:58

of existing radio data, but data that has been recently proven

55:02

to work following flights in other areas.

55:09

I am not here to judge what is right or wrong.

55:12

The only thing that I want to achieve

55:13

is to get the search going again

55:15

for the sake of the families left behind.

55:18

So here are two relatively small new areas to search.

55:22

Please get the boats out there

55:25

and let's get to the bottom of this literally.

55:32

(calm music)

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Tags associés
MH370AviationMysteryInvestigationFlight370Boeing777MalaysiaAirlinesSearchEffortsNewEvidenceRadioDataWSPR
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