This Could Actually Ruin The Solar Eclipse…

A once-in-a-lifetime event is about  to take place in North America, 

and millions of people plan on making the quest  to go see it in person. The total solar eclipse  

of 2024 is going to be breathtaking, and I believe  everyone should try and go see it. But just simply  

traveling to the path of totality might not be  enough. One little cloud could block your view  

of the sun, causing you to miss the whole thing.  In this video, I'm going to try to nail down where  

the skies are going to be clear during the solar  eclipse and where they will likely be blocked  

by clouds. Now, this is no easy task. The total  solar eclipse will cross over a dozen states as  

it traverses from Texas to Maine on the afternoon  of April 8th. That's a big forecast area. And  

as of making this video, we are still 11 days  away from April 8th. Forecasting large weather  

systems and just ballpark high temperatures is  very difficult 11 days out, let alone trying  

to nail down where clouds are going to be. But  millions of people will be traveling to try and  

experience this very rare eclipse. You see, this  one's going to be special because it has a wider  

path of totality than usual, which theoretically  should mean that more people can get to see it.  

Totality during this eclipse is also going to last  longer than usual, and the sun is currently in a  

period of increased activity, so the corona  should look extra fascinating. So we have to  

start giving the weather and cloud cover that  day some serious thought here. And to do that,  

we're going to start this forecast off by looking  at climatology. Basically, we need to know what  

April 8th has looked like during previous years  in this part of the country to try to come up  

with some idea of what this year could be like.  And the first thing I have to mention here is  

that it's spring. And the thing about spring  in the US is there's lots of warm and cool air  

fighting with each other right over the states.  As winter air exits and spring air emerges, 

these battles are notorious for causing cloud  cover and rain. So it's already much more likely  

that we're going to see greater cloud coverage  during this eclipse than we did during the last  

one. The most recent total solar eclipse here  in the U.S. was back in 2017 and it happened  

in August. The skies were mostly clear across the  entire path of totality thanks to the dry summer  

pattern in place. I went to this eclipse myself  and I remember thinking about how lucky we were  

that there was not a single cloud in the sky to  block our view. I don't really think we're going  

to get so lucky this time. I mean, just take  a look at this animation from the University  

of Wisconsin compiling satellite images over the  last 50 years from the same time that our eclipse  

will occur. Almost all of these show expansive  cloud cover right over the path of totality,  

especially in the Northeast and Ohio  Valley and around the Great Lakes. Over  

the past 60 to 70 years, it's usually more  cloudy than not in places like Missouri, 

Ohio and New York in early April. And then  further south and west, you've got places like  

Dallas and southwest Texas that are more likely  to be sunny. It's very important to note that  

just because climatology says that it's pretty  likely that a lot of the path of totality will  

be covered with clouds on April 8th doesn't  mean that it's set in stone. Weather patterns  

vary wildly year to year and month to month and  day to day. Maybe this year we're gonna be in  

a clearer pattern than years past. In order to  figure that out, we have to take a look at some  

forecast models. These are going to help us learn  exactly what's going to happen as we approach  

April 8th so we know where to go to experience  the solar eclipse. And speaking of learning,  

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back. Taking a look at the GFS, things look pretty  active from now all the way up until April 8th. In  

fact, on April 1st and April 2nd, there's already  an enhanced and a slight risk of severe weather  

for those days as I'm filming this. It looks like  there's going to be a large storm system that  

causes a widespread severe weather outbreak during  this time period. And just a side note here,  

if you live in any of these places and this event  hasn't happened yet as you're watching this video, 

you should definitely pay attention to the  weather. This looks like a big April severe  

weather outbreak. And this is the kind of  pattern that we should expect to be in in  

April. It's storm season. So another storm is  probably going to come in right after that one. 

And once again, taking a look at the GFS here,  you can see exactly how the pattern unfolds as  

we go through the rest of next week. Where a big  trough is expected to move in from the West. This  

means that pretty much all of the path of totality  would have the chance of being cloudy except for  

maybe this little sliver of the Northeast. And  this is really interesting because that's where  

climatology says it should be most cloudy. The  solution on the GFS is very probable though. If  

we actually do get a storm system setting up in  the central US like this, there's a good chance  

out in front of it is going to be very warm and  nice and mostly clear of clouds, especially south  

of the warm front. This is a pretty big weather  system and the signal for it has been consistent,  

so I'm starting to have some confidence that  this might be the case here. But of course,  

that's just one run of one model. What  does the Euro model say? Unfortunately,  

this is still so far away that the European model  doesn't even have predictive images that far out.  

But as you can see on the 7th, that trough we saw  in the GFS is still there. And it looks like it's  

heading right for the central US, bringing clouds  and rain right along with it. The Euro does seem a  

little bit less bullish than the GFS as far as the  overall impact of the storm goes. But remember,  

all it's going to take is one cloud to block your  view. The intensity of the rainfall coming out  

of that cloud really doesn't matter. So to be  honest, looking at all these forecast models,  

it doesn't really paint a much brighter picture  than just looking at climatology. But once again,  

I have to emphasize that we are still very distant  from this event and the forecast is going to  

change. But with all that being said, here's my  official preliminary 2024 total solar eclipse  

cloud cover forecast. All of these areas shaded in  red have the highest probability of experiencing  

overcast skies during the solar eclipse. The  farther north you go, the more confident I am  

in this prediction, especially here in the states.  Now, take a look at these areas shaded in yellow.  

These places are going to be in what I call a  toss-up. There is a slightly better chance of  

actually being able to see the eclipse if you're  in the yellow zone. Some of these places will be  

cloudy, some of them will get peaks of sunshine,  and some Some of them might just be mostly clear.  

We're going to know more once we get closer and  the green is where I'm most confident that we're  

going to have clear skies. These are the only  areas where I think there's going to be more sky  

visible than cloud cover and you've got a pretty  good chance of actually seeing and experiencing  

totality there. It's not 100% but it's better  than the yellow and the red areas. So there you  

have it my preliminary and honestly too early 2024  cloud covered total solar eclipse forecast. This  

is gonna change and once we get within two to  three days of the event I'm gonna post another  

video on my XTRA channel with the fine details  of where it's gonna be cloudy and where it's  

gonna be sunny. Make sure you go subscribe to that  channel if you haven't already and slap that like  

button stay tuned to the forecast and I'll see  You under the shadow of the moon. Goodbye Whoop!