What the Israel & Iran Strikes Just Revealed
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses a recent military exchange between Iran and Israel, marking the first time both nations directly struck each other's territories. Iran launched a significant strike package, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and kamikaze drones, potentially as a warning or to inflict damage. The attack's limited damage suggests a possible underestimate of Israel's air defense capabilities. In retaliation, Israel's stealthy, low-volume strike on Iranian air bases signals a strategic message without escalating conflict. Both nations' state media downplayed the exchange, emphasizing their military's resolve and the importance of air defense systems. The incident underscores the need for continued vigilance and investment in air defense, as evidenced by the significant portion of U.S. aid allocated to Israeli air defense systems.
Takeaways
- 🌎 Israel and Iran directly struck each other on their own territory for the first time in history, indicating a significant escalation in their conflict.
- ⚔️ Iran's April 13th attack on Israel involved a mix of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and kamikaze drones, suggesting a coordinated military strategy.
- ⏰ Iran gave Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq a 72-hour warning of the attack, which may have allowed these countries to prepare and potentially pass on the information to the United States.
- 🔄 The slow speed of the Shahed drones used by Iran could have been a tactic to overwhelm Israel's air defense systems before faster ballistic and cruise missiles arrived.
- 💰 The cost of Israel's anti-air defense response to the Iranian attack was estimated between $500 million and $1 billion, highlighting the financial burden of such engagements.
- 🚨 The lack of a second Iranian salvo and the limited scale of the attack might suggest a warning shot or a test of capabilities rather than an attempt to inflict maximum damage.
- 🎯 Iran's choice of weapons and their trajectories imply a strategy aimed at causing significant damage, similar to Russian tactics used in Ukraine.
- 🛡️ The high interception rate by Israel's air defense, between 95% and 99%, shows the effectiveness of their missile defense systems against the Iranian attack.
- 📉 Some Iranian missiles failed to reach their targets, suggesting reliability issues with their missile technology, at least in this instance.
- 🔄 The delay in Iran's retaliation after Israel's strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria could indicate preparation time needed for missile positioning and launch readiness.
- ❓ The limited damage caused by Iran's attack and the targets chosen suggest a message of retaliation and capability, rather than an attempt to cause widespread destruction.
Q & A
What was the significance of the direct strikes between Israel and Iran on their respective territories?
-The direct strikes marked the first time in history that Israel and Iran struck each other on their own territory, revealing a lot about their respective capabilities and the messages they intended to send to each other.
What was the composition of Iran's April 13th attack on Israel?
-Iran's attack included 130 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles, and 170 smaller kamikaze drones, totaling approximately 330 munitions in a coordinated strike package.
What does the theory suggest about Iran's full offensive capabilities during the April 13th attack?
-The theory suggests that Iran did not use its full offensive capabilities, as evidenced by the 72-hour warning given to certain countries and the relatively small number of missiles launched compared to their arsenal.
Why did Iran wait 12 days to retaliate after Israel's strike on their embassy in Syria?
-The delay could be due to the time needed to prepare and position missiles for launch, suggesting that the attack was not as impromptu as it might have seemed.
What was the estimated cost to Israel to shoot down the Iranian attack?
-It was estimated to cost Israel between $500 million and $1 billion worth of anti-air defense munitions to shoot down the Iranian attack.
What was the interception rate of the Israeli air defense system during the Iranian attack?
-The interception rate was between 95 and 99%, with 93% of the ballistic missiles being intercepted.
How did the US military detect failed Iranian missile launches?
-US military surveillance satellites detected infrared heat signature bursts of missile launches that failed, and some missiles were found to have fallen short of their target.
What was the target of the Iranian attack within Israel?
-Iran appeared to be targeting the Netim air base and the Ngev Airfield Base in southern Israel, near where Israel's nuclear facility is rumored to be located.
What was the nature of Israel's retaliation against Iran?
-Israel's retaliation was a low-volume strike, with reports indicating that only three missiles were fired with no real warning, targeting Iranian air bases.
Why might Israel have chosen to target the Isfahan Airbase in Iran?
-The Isfahan Airbase was chosen possibly because of its proximity to Iran's largest nuclear facility, indicating a strategic message that Israel could potentially strike at Iran's nuclear capabilities.
How did both sides downplay the exchange of attacks?
-Both Israeli and Iranian state media minimized the impact of the attacks, suggesting that they had less destructive power and that their air defense systems performed well.
What is the significance of the air defense systems in the context of this conflict?
-Air defense systems played a crucial role in preventing a larger-scale war, as evidenced by the high interception rate achieved by Israel's system, which is largely funded by the United States.
Outlines
🚨 Iran and Israel's First Direct Military Exchange 🚨
The first paragraph discusses the historic nature of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran, including the types of weapons used and the possible intentions behind them. It outlines the theories that Iran's attack was either a warning shot or an attempt to inflict significant damage. Key details include Iran's use of 130 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles, and 170 kamikaze drones, the advanced warning given to certain countries, the slow speed of the Shahed drones, and the cost of Israel's anti-air defense response. The paragraph also explores the possibility of a sustained attack and the potential for Israel and its allies to go on the offensive.
🛰️ Analysis of Iran's Missile Attack and Israel's Defenses 🛰️
The second paragraph delves into the effectiveness of Iran's missile attack, the strategy behind it, and Israel's air defense capabilities. It mentions the Institute for the Study of War's perspective, Ukraine's interception rates, and the potential expectations of Iran's military planners. The narrative also touches on the unreliability of Iran's missiles, the detection of failed missile launches by U.S. military surveillance satellites, and the implications of Iran's 12-day delay in retaliation. The paragraph further speculates on the reasons behind the limited number of missiles fired by Iran and the public nature of such an attack.
🔍 Assessing Damage and Messages from the Aerial Confrontation 🔍
The third paragraph focuses on the aftermath of the attacks, providing insights into the damage assessment and the strategic messaging from both Iran and Israel. It details the number of Iranian missiles that hit targets within Israel, the claims of hypersonic missile capabilities, and the limited damage caused. The paragraph also examines Iran's targeting choices, such as the Netim air base and the Ngev Airfield Base near Israel's nuclear facility, suggesting retaliatory and deterrent messages. Additionally, it describes Israel's retaliatory strategy, the potential stealth capabilities of Israeli forces, and the verification of damage through open-source satellite images.
🏺 Downplaying the Conflict and the Importance of Air Defense 🏺
The final paragraph discusses the rhetoric from both Israeli and Iranian state media, which downplayed the severity of the exchange. It highlights the statements from Iranian leadership that emphasize national will and military emergence over specific military outcomes. The paragraph also underscores the importance of air defense systems, particularly in the context of U.S. aid to Israel, and suggests that the effectiveness of these systems may have prevented a larger-scale conflict. It concludes by noting the incentives for both sides to claim less damage and better performance of their air defense systems.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡World War III
💡Ballistic Missiles
💡Cruise Missiles
💡Kamikaze Drones
💡Air Defense Systems
💡Strike Package
💡Interception Rate
💡Hypersonic Missiles
💡Nuclear Facility
💡F-35 Fighters
💡State Media
Highlights
Israel and Iran directly struck each other on their own territory for the first time in history.
Iran's April 13th attack on Israel included 130 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles, and 170 kamikaze drones.
Iran gave the United States, Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq a 72-hour warning of their attack.
The United States claims they received no warning of the attack.
Iran's use of slow-moving Shahed drones suggests they may have aimed to overwhelm Israel's air defenses.
It took Iran 12 days to retaliate after Israel's strike on their embassy in Syria.
Iran only fired 130 of their 3,000 ballistic missiles, indicating a limited strike.
Israel's interception rate of Iranian missiles was between 95 and 99%.
The Wall Street Journal reported that about half of Iran's ballistic missiles failed to reach their target.
US military surveillance satellites detected failed missile launches from Iran.
Iran may have needed time to prepare missile launches after Israel's embassy strike.
Iran's attack was modeled on Russian tactics used against Ukraine.
Israel's retaliation was a low-volume strike, potentially to avoid escalating conflict.
Israel targeted Iranian air bases, possibly signaling their ability to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities.
Both Israeli and Iranian state media downplayed the exchange of strikes.
Iran's leader emphasized the importance of national and military will over specific details of the attack.
The United States provides significant funding for Israeli air defense systems.
Both sides had an incentive to claim less damage was done and that their air defense systems performed well.
Transcripts
it looks like we just dodged World War
III and parried a regional War for now
worry not that could all change tomorrow
because Israel and Iran directly struck
each other on their own territory for
the first time in history this week I
think that the weapons tactics and
targets each side chose just revealed a
lot to us about their respective
capabilities and the message that each
side was intending to send to the other
so the big question everyone wants to
know right now is what extent of Iran's
offensive capabilities did they actually
use how much damage did they really
intend to deliver was this all
essentially the equivalent of a warning
shot a limited strike or was it meant to
inflict massive damage I think there's
some evidence to support both of those
theories so I'll present each side to
you now and I'll add some of my own
personal insights so you can make up
your own mind first the facts Iran's
April 13th attack on Israel included 130
ballistic missiles 30 cruise missiles
and 170 of the smaller kamakazi drones
for about a total of 330 Munitions in
military parant we call that a strike
package which refers to a coordinated
grouping of different military assets
deployed to execute a specific strike
Mission Against an enemy Target or
another way of putting that is Iran
specifically chose those three type of
weapons for a very specific purpose the
evidence to support the first theory
that this was not Iran's full
capabilities comes from the Iranian
claim that they they gave the United
States turkey Jordan and Iraq 72 hours
of warning that they would launch this
attack they claimed that they added a
diplomatic tag onto that strike package
by essentially telegraphing in advance
that they would launch an air attack on
Israel now turkey Jordan and Iraq all
confirmed that Iran gave them 3 days of
warning if we take them at their word
and believe that then it's also likely
that one of them passed on that
information to the United States under
the table unofficially the reason to
believe this is because the US
military's close relationship with all
three of those countries however the
United States officially claims that
they were given no such warning the
claim here is that the United States
Israel United Kingdom and Jordan all had
72 hours to move air defense assets into
the region to have them on high alert
ready for the attack proponents of this
Theory also point to the fact that it
took 12 days for Iran to retaliate after
Israel struck their Embassy in syri
Syria instead of attacking right away
another Point brought up in this theory
is that Iran only fired 130 of their
3,000 ballistic missiles in their
Arsenal the idea that this was only
meant to be a limited strike also has to
do with the fact that the Shah head
drones that were used only traveled
about 185 km hour so it took between 6
to 9 hours to reach Israel in fact I
remember what it felt like to hear about
the attack on the news and then there
was this really long period of over 6
hours where everyone kind of awkwardly
and stressfully waited for these slow
moving drones to make their way across
the region to see what effect they would
eventually have and even if we are to
believe that the United States was given
three days warning how would we know
that they'd be able to shoot all those
down we only know that in hindsight more
evidence also comes from what didn't
happen as much as what did happen
because there was no second Salvo it
estimated to cost Israel between 500
million And1 billion worth of anti-air
defense Munitions to shoot down the
Iranian ATT attack which likely cost
them $200 million on their end so the
question is for how long of a sustained
period of time could this type of attack
be prevented a Counterpoint to that
would be if Iran continued missile
salvos and Strikes like this for a
longer period of time then Israel would
choose to go on the offensive with their
allies with their own missile strikes to
prevent them okay for this second theory
now let's assume this was actually
Iran's best attempt at afflicting
maximum some damage on Israel the
evidence for this comes from the fact
that this strike package is a meta we've
seen before it's the same tactics that
Russian forces have used in their war in
Ukraine to try to overwhelm Ukrainian
air defense systems the theory that this
was intended to inflict maximum damage
comes from the fact that the ballistic
missile chosen by Iran like the EAD fly
at a supersonic speed of 3,800 mph and
travel in a high arcing trajectory
that's difficult to shoot down while
cruise missiles fly lower at a more
straight 750 mph using these differing
speeds and trajectories these weapons
and this weapon package suggests to us
that Iran has every intention of causing
massive amounts of damage with this
attack yes it's true that launching slow
moving drones give ample warning because
it's quickly detected but from Iran's
point of view that was worth it because
they hoped that these drones would
overwhelm distract and confuse Israel's
air defense es for when the ballistic
and cruise missiles arrived Iran
carefully timed the launch of their
drones and ballistic missiles to arrive
in the same window to confuse air
defense systems The Institute for the
study of War had an interesting take on
this they reported that the ukrainians
have an overall interception rate of
about 46% for recent large-scale
ballistic missile strikes against them
and sometimes that number is as low as
16% recently the isw states that this
indicates that Iran had every reason to
believe that Israel's interception rate
would likely be around that possibly a
little bit higher so the average
infringment math here suggests that even
if the Iranian military planners
believed 60% of their missiles would be
intercepted then that means that they
expected 198 of their Munitions to hit
their intended targets no one really
anticipated that the US Israel and
Allied interception rate would be
between 95 and 99%
however while that number is factually
correct it doesn't tell the whole story
when we look at the most dangerous and
important metric the ballistic missiles
that means that 93% of the ballistic
missiles were intercepted the fog of War
still weighs heavily on this recent
event because these numbers are still
changing a Wall Street Journal report
indicates that in reality about half of
the ballistic missiles Iran fired failed
to even reach their target so about 65
missiles reached their target and nine
of those got through that suggests an
interception rate lower of about 86%
which is still better than most experts
would have anticipated but it reveals
that the US and its allies need to stay
vigilant and that underestimating our
adversaries is not the right move it
also reveals that Iran's missiles are
unreliable and poorly made currently
although that might not always be the
case in the future so how do we know
some of those Iranian launches failed
the US military surveillance satellites
detected infrared heat signature bursts
of missile launches that fizzled out and
some of those missiles were found to
have not reached their target having
fallen halfway there in Iraq and Jordan
photos have been posted of these failed
launches all over the web already the
fact that Iran waited 12 Days After
Israel's strike on the embassy in Syria
to retaliate might not have been because
they wanted to Telegraph their attack
but it might be evidence that they
needed a week or two to get all of their
missiles into position and out of the
safety of their underground bunkers they
needed to prepare the launches and get
everything into position if you've ever
served in any branch of the military
anywhere or if you've worked for a large
corporation or government you know how
nothing gets done in less than 12 days
in fact it's surprising that they were
able to launch that kind of attack that
quickly and it could be taken that they
didn't Telegraph anything here's how the
isw put it quote the strike package from
Iran was modeled on those that the
Russians have used repeatedly against
Ukraine to great effect the attack
caused more limited damage than intended
likely because the Iranians
underestimated the tremendous advantages
Israel has in defending against such
strikes compared to Ukraine the Iranians
will learn lessons from this strike and
work to improve their abilities to
penetrate Israeli defenses over time as
the Russians have done in repeated
strike series against Ukraine so that is
to say even if Iran's attack failed to
succeed at what it was trying to accompl
accomplish we should not underestimate
our adversaries and should not assume
future strikes would also be
unsuccessful the fact that it failed to
inflict more damage should be a huge
relief because as we'll soon see
Israel's retaliation was a far different
style of attack and it might have been a
very muted one due to the limited damage
another thing to consider is that this
was a combined Allied effort on the part
of Jordan Israel the United Kingdom the
us to stop the incoming missiles and
there's no guarantee that those
countries would step into help again for
Israel in the future under different
circumstances one point that could be in
the favor of either theory is the fact
that Hezbollah in Lebanon fired 70
rockets at Israel on April 13th the same
day of the Iranian attack this might
have been done in coordination to
further saturate and weaken Israel's air
defenses ahead of Iran's attack or you
could say it was a limited strike and
shows that if Iran really wanted to
cause more damage they would have
requested a larger strike from Hezbollah
you might ask why didn't Iran fire more
ballistic missiles they have 3,000 of
them supposedly in their stockpile part
of the reason for that might be because
we forget that just because you have
more missiles doesn't mean you have more
launchers it's likely Iran has between
somewhere 100 and 200 missile launchers
which limits their ability to fire per
Salvo one of the downsides of firing
such a high volume of fire of Munitions
like Iran did is just how public it is
when you shoot 330 Munitions everyone
would very publicly see the damage if a
high percentage of them got through
Israel's air defenses their Airfield
would be cooked if a lot of them hit
their target instead now that the dust
has settled on these attacks we have a
better picture of what really happened
according to United States officials a
total of nine Iranian missiles hit the
ground in Israel Iran claims it was
their Hypersonic missiles that hit their
targets and technically anything over
Mach 5 or 3,800 mph is Hypersonic as far
as I know according to the US damage
assessments the missiles only manag to
damage an Israeli C130 aircraft on the
Airfield in this day and age damage
assessments can be done a few days later
by ordering a public satellite image of
the location almost anyone can open
source it now the Associated Press
investigated and saw the strike caused
limited damage on Israel this is why we
know that the United States and Israel
aren't lying about their interception
rate but that brings us to our next
point which is what was Iran really
targeting inside Israel what message
were they trying to send with that
Target they appear to have been
targeting the netim air base it's said
to be where they have struck the Iranian
Embassy from in Syria on April 1st which
killed two of their cuds Force generals
five of the Iranian ballistic missiles
hit this Airfield specifically this
suggests that the message Iran was
trying to send likely was that this was
in retaliation for Israel's strike on
their consulate why did Israel attack
the embassy and cross what is seen as a
red line from their perspective Iran was
using it as a means to plan attacks
against them Israel believes that Iran
helped plan and execute the October 7th
attack against them and whether you
believe that is true or not isn't the
point when we try to understand why this
happened not whether or not it was
justified the fact that at least one or
a handful of missiles got through
Israel's air defenses could be a message
that Iran is capable of putting pressure
on them and hitting their targets and to
psychologically suggest what would
happen if a larger weapon payload were
used like a nuclear strike for example
the other Target that Iran went after
was the ngev Airfield Base in south of
Israel in the ngev desert which is close
to where Israel's nuclear facility is
located Israel is rumored to have
nuclear weapons which they neither
confirm nor deny four of the ballistic
missiles hit this Airfield in Israel
this could have been Iran attempting to
send a message that they could strike
Israel's nuclear capabilities if they
wanted to now when we look at the
Israeli retaliation now that the dust
has settle it appears Israel had a very
different strike package and strategy as
well as different intended message
reports as of right now indicate that
Israel fired only three missiles with no
real warning and they neither confirmed
nor denied they were behind it early
reports suggest that these might have
been three air to ground missiles that
were fired by Israeli fighter jets for
years we've heard reports of Israeli
F-35 Fighters entering and exiting
Iranian airspace without them being
detected Israel has been training for
this kind of stealth mission for years
so just the facts on the night of April
18th Israel struck Iranian air bases in
the Central City of Isfahan and ties
explosions were also heard in the Iraqi
capital of Baghdad in Syria Syria
claimed that their air defense networks
were hit by Israeli missiles this low
volume of fire could potentially be a
way to send a message to Iran without
without forcing their hand to retaliate
again with a large ballistic missile
attack which could stress expensive air
defense systems if Israel had attacked
with their own large volume of ballistic
and cruise missiles that we know they
have it would have escalated things
further Iran claimed the attack was only
a few drones that they say they
intercepted all of with their air
defense systems again open-source
satellite images allow us to verify what
state media and officials claim and
compare to the truth the BBC stated that
they verified damage that was done to
the Iranian Isfahan Airbase where
anti-air systems were knocked out here
are the images of the reported damage
how did the BBC do this damage
assessment quote Optical imagery will be
familiar to anyone who regularly uses
Google Earth essentially a photograph of
the land below s technology on the hand
uses radio waves to build an image of
the Earth's surface one s300 Iranian air
defense site appears to have been
destroyed we know that Iran has air
bases all over their country including
several ones in closer proximity to
Israel so why might Israel have chosen
to Target this specific one in Isfahan
one theory is the fact that it was
located only 120 km or about 1 hour's
drive from Iran's largest nuclear
facility the underground natan's
enrichment complex Iran claims that
their nuclear program is for purely
peaceful purposes while Israel believes
that Iran is working on developing
nuclear weapons at these sites this is
close to the same location where Iran is
currently digging a new nuclear facility
which will be allegedly 90 M underground
and deep enough to be out of range of
Bunker Buster air strikes so if Israel
hypothetically wanted to send a message
that they can get Munitions through
Iran's air defense systems and
theoretically strike Iran's nuclear
facility the ispahan airbase would be
the closest place to Target after this
tit fortat exchange from Israel and Iran
state media from both sides downplayed
the exchange was not it a strike two or
three very they're they're like more
like toys that our children play with
not drones it was not worth telling us
before it happened Iranian leader coin
said the following to this point quote
debates by the other party about how
many missiles were fired how many of
them hit their targets and how many
didn't these are of secondary importance
the main issue is the emergence of the
Iranian nation and Iranian military's
will in an important International Arena
this is what matters the debate about
how many missiles were fired and if they
hit their targets is is kind of the
primary importance if you ask me but
okay difference of opinion there from my
perspective it shows that we should
double down on air defense which is
actually the main funding in the United
States $95 billion foreign aid package
26 billion is earmarked for Israel of
that 9 billion is for humanitarian aid
for Gaza and the rest is largely for
isra Israeli air defense systems which
is likely one of the main things that I
think helped prevented this from
spiraling into a larger War for the time
being and both sides had incentive to
claim less damage was done and that
their air defense systems performed well
Israel did not push the claim that they
caused Great damage and it appears like
for now we've avoided World War II
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)
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