This Is Going To Cause WEIRD Weather…

Ryan Hall, Y'all

13 May 202407:09

Summary

TLDRIn the provided weather forecast transcript, the speaker discusses an approaching severe weather system characterized by a large mass of clouds in the southern region. The Storm Prediction Center has identified an enhanced risk of severe weather for several states, including Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle. The primary threat is damaging winds, with a potential for hurricane force gusts, though hail and tornado risks are present, particularly around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The forecast outlines the progression of storms throughout the day, with a focus on the Deep South and the potential for flash flooding. The speaker also touches on the broader weather patterns affecting the U.S., including a ridge in the northwest and a trough in the north, which could lead to further showers and thunderstorms. The summary concludes with a mention of the peak of the severe weather season in late May and an appeal for donations to support those affected by severe weather through theyallsquad.org.

Takeaways

☁️ A large mass of clouds is causing severe weather problems in the southern states of the U.S., including Texas, Louisiana, and Florida.
🌪️ The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for certain areas, with a particular emphasis on damaging winds.
🌬️ While there is a hail threat and a tornado threat cannot be ruled out, the main concern is the potential for damaging winds, especially in East Texas and the Florida panhandle.
🌧️ The first round of storms is expected to cause problems across the Deep South, with a second round anticipated to follow.
🕒 The timing of the storms is such that the first round will be dying out as new storms form, with peak activity expected around 4 p.m. local time in various regions.
🌡️ The weather pattern suggests that the eastern U.S. will continue to experience rain and thunderstorms, with a persistent blue blob indicating sinking air and cooler temperatures.
🌤️ A ridge is attempting to form in the northwest, which could bring nicer weather, but also the potential for more showers and thunderstorms as the week progresses.
🌧️ There is a high likelihood of rain and thunderstorms continuing through the end of the week, especially in the eastern part of the U.S.
🚨 The tornado threat is not zero, particularly around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, with a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the affected zone.
🌈 Despite the potential for severe weather, the overall pattern suggests that most people will experience slightly cooler and wetter weather as a result of the trough moving into the north.
📅 Looking ahead, the weather pattern is notorious for creating a battle zone with lots of storms and chances for severe weather towards the end of May, which is the peak of the severe weather season.

Q & A

What weather phenomenon is causing problems in the southern region?
-A large mass of clouds, referred to as a 'big old blob of clouds,' is causing problems in the southern region, associated with an enhanced risk of severe weather.
Which states are under an enhanced risk of severe weather according to the Storm Prediction Center?
-Texas, Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the panhandle of Florida are under an enhanced risk of severe weather.
What is the primary threat associated with the incoming storms?
-The primary threat associated with the incoming storms is damaging winds, with a potential for hurricane force winds at times.
Is there a significant hail threat with the approaching storms?
-While there is a hail threat, it is not considered significant compared to the wind threat.
What is the tornado threat level in the area around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama?
-There is a 5% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given point in the specified area, and a 2% probability in the surrounding green zone.
What time frame is expected for the first round of storms to cause problems across the Deep South?
-The first round of storms is expected to cause problems across the Deep South during the time of filming and will likely fizzle out by 4 p.m.
When is the hail threat expected to be the greatest?
-The hail threat is expected to be the greatest around 4 p.m. Eastern or 3 p.m. Central time.
What weather pattern is expected to form around 8 p.m. that could affect southeast Louisiana and New Orleans?
-A classic squall line or bow echo is expected to form, which could bring damaging winds to southeast Louisiana and New Orleans between 8 and 10 p.m.
What is the expected weather pattern in the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday?
-A spinning area of low pressure in the Midwest moving into the Ohio Valley is expected to spark new storms, potentially including small hail makers and isolated damaging wind events.
How does the weather pattern in the northwest and central U.S. influence the upcoming weather?
-A big Ridge is trying to form in the northwest, which could bring nicer and cooler weather, while a bit of moisture from the Pacific and cooler air from Canada could lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms towards the weekend.
What is the general weather outlook for the latter part of May?
-Towards the latter part of May, an extended period of nicer weather and higher temperatures is expected in the south towards the Great Lakes region due to a ridge, while the northwest will experience constant troughing with cooler air.
What is the potential for flash flooding in the deep south over the next few days?
-There is a significant potential for flash flooding in the deep south, particularly from South Carolina towards Louisiana, due to the heavy rainfall expected from the incoming storm systems.

Outlines

00:00

🌪️ Severe Weather and Storm Predictions

The video script discusses an impending severe weather situation, particularly in the southern states of the U.S. A large mass of clouds is causing concern, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing an enhanced risk of severe weather for regions including Texas, Louisiana, parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle. Two rounds of storms are expected, with the first occurring during the filming and the second following the video's release. The primary threat is damaging winds, especially in East Texas and towards the Florida panhandle, with a possibility of hurricane force winds. Although hail and tornado threats exist, they are not the main concern. The video provides a timeline for the storms, with specific times for various locations to expect severe weather. The radar images are also described, showing the progression of the storms throughout the day and into the next. The script also touches on the potential for tornadoes in certain areas, such as New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, with a 5% probability within a 25-mile radius of specific zones. Lastly, the script mentions the formation of new storms in the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, which could bring small hail and isolated damaging winds.

05:03

🌧️ Rainfall Predictions and Future Weather Patterns

The second paragraph focuses on the rainfall predictions and the broader weather patterns expected over the next week and beyond. It highlights that a significant amount of rain is expected in certain areas, particularly in the deep south from South Carolina to Louisiana, where there is a risk of flash flooding. The script outlines that while the rain will fall over an extended period, causing only minor accumulations each day, the cumulative effect could lead to flooding issues. The video also discusses the potential for recurring storms and severe weather, especially in May, due to the formation of a ridge in the south and cool air from the northwest affecting the north central U.S. The script provides a visual representation of the areas likely to receive the most rain, indicating that while some regions will experience heavy rainfall, it will not be concentrated enough to cause major flash flooding. The speaker reassures viewers that there are no major storm systems or tropical activity to report at the moment and encourages donations to support their efforts in helping those affected by severe weather through their nonprofit organization.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Severe Weather

Severe weather refers to any potentially hazardous atmospheric condition that could pose a significant risk to life, property, or the environment. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses an enhanced risk of severe weather due to a large mass of clouds, which is expected to bring damaging winds and potentially tornadoes to certain regions, particularly in the southern United States.

💡Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is an office of the National Weather Service that is responsible for issuing watches, warnings, and forecasts for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the United States. The video mentions the SPC's role in identifying an enhanced risk area for severe weather, indicating the gravity of the situation and the importance of their forecasts in preparedness and safety measures.

💡Damaging Winds

Damaging winds are high-speed winds that can cause significant harm to structures, vegetation, and can even lead to power outages. The video script highlights the threat of damaging winds, especially in East Texas and towards the panhandle of Florida, where they could reach hurricane force at times, making them the primary concern in the forecasted severe weather event.

💡Tornado Threat

A tornado threat refers to the potential for tornadoes to form under certain weather conditions. While the video does not indicate a high likelihood of tornadoes, it does not rule them out entirely, especially in areas around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The mention of a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in a specific zone underscores the need for vigilance and preparedness.

💡Hail Threat

A hail threat indicates the possibility of hailstones falling as part of a storm, which can range in size and cause damage to crops, vehicles, and buildings. The video script notes that while there is a hail threat associated with the weather system, it is not considered a primary concern in this instance, suggesting that other weather hazards, such as damaging winds and tornadoes, are of greater concern.

💡Radar Imagery

Radar imagery is a visual representation of weather data collected by radar systems. It helps meteorologists analyze and predict weather patterns and potential hazards. The video discusses what the radar is expected to look like throughout the day, indicating the progression of storms and the timing of various weather threats.

💡Squall Line

A squall line is a line of severe thunderstorms that forms under the leading edge of a cold front, often bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and sometimes hail or tornadoes. The video mentions the formation of a classic squall line or bow echo, which is expected to move into southeast Louisiana and New Orleans, bringing damaging winds to the area.

💡Flash Flooding

Flash flooding occurs when excessive rainfall in a short period of time overwhelms the capacity of the ground to absorb water, leading to rapid flooding in urban areas, rivers, and streams. The video suggests the possibility of flash flooding due to the expected heavy rainfall and damaging winds, particularly in the Deep South.

💡Height Anomalies

Height anomalies refer to deviations in atmospheric pressure patterns that can influence weather systems. The video discusses blue blobs on a map, which are associated with sinking air, cooler temperatures, and weather systems that bring rain and thunderstorms. These anomalies are indicative of the weather patterns expected in the eastern part of the U.S.

💡Ridge

In meteorology, a ridge is a large area of high atmospheric pressure that can influence the movement of weather systems. The video mentions a ridge trying to form in the northwest, which could bring nicer and cooler weather to the region. However, it also suggests that this pattern could lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms as the ridge interacts with other weather systems.

💡Cutoff Low

A cutoff low is a region of low pressure that has become detached from the main belt of westerlies and can lead to unstable weather conditions. The video script refers to a cutoff low moving through the south, which is expected to lead to another storm system similar to the one being discussed, indicating a continuation of the unsettled weather in the region.

Highlights

Severe weather is expected in the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the panhandle of Florida due to a large cloud mass.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for the aforementioned areas.

Two rounds of storms are anticipated, with the first occurring during the filming and the second around the time the video is released.

The primary threat from the storms is damaging winds, particularly in East Texas and towards the panhandle of Florida.

There is a potential for hurricane force winds, although hail and tornado threats are considered lower.

Tornado probability within 25 miles of any point in the highlighted brown zone is 5%, and 2% in the green zone.

The radar forecast indicates the first round of storms will fizzle out, with new storms developing in Southeast Texas and Houston.

Hail threats are expected to be the highest around 4 p.m. Eastern, 3 p.m. Central, with potential for damaging winds and flash flooding.

By 8 p.m., a squall line or bow echo is expected to form, moving into southeast Louisiana and New Orleans with damaging winds.

The storms are projected to hit southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the panhandle of Florida in the early morning hours of Tuesday.

A fast-moving damaging wind event is anticipated, with minimal supercellular activity and low tornado threats.

A low-pressure system in the Midwest is expected to spark new storms on Tuesday, possibly producing small hail and isolated damaging winds.

Thunderstorms are also forecast for South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and potentially Canada and New England, though they are not expected to be significant.

A persistent blue blob on the map indicates a pattern of sinking air, cooler temperatures, and a higher chance of rain and thunderstorms in the eastern U.S.

A ridge is attempting to form in the northwest, which may bring nicer and cooler weather, but also the potential for more showers and thunderstorms.

The pattern could lead to localized severe weather, especially in May, which is the peak of the severe weather season.

A detailed map shows the probability of rain on Tuesday, May 14th, with the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms in certain areas.

There is a risk of flash flooding in the deep south, particularly from South Carolina to Louisiana due to the amount of rain expected to fall.

The weather pattern over the next 8 to 14 days suggests a continued risk of recurring storms and potential severe weather, especially in May.

No major storm systems or tropical activity are currently expected, providing a temporary break before the next potential severe weather event.

The y'all squad is actively helping towns impacted by severe weather and accepting tax-deductible donations for their 501c3 Nonprofit organization.