This Is Going To Cause WEIRD Weather…

Ryan Hall, Y'all
13 May 202407:09

Summary

TLDRIn the provided weather forecast transcript, the speaker discusses an approaching severe weather system characterized by a large mass of clouds in the southern region. The Storm Prediction Center has identified an enhanced risk of severe weather for several states, including Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle. The primary threat is damaging winds, with a potential for hurricane force gusts, though hail and tornado risks are present, particularly around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The forecast outlines the progression of storms throughout the day, with a focus on the Deep South and the potential for flash flooding. The speaker also touches on the broader weather patterns affecting the U.S., including a ridge in the northwest and a trough in the north, which could lead to further showers and thunderstorms. The summary concludes with a mention of the peak of the severe weather season in late May and an appeal for donations to support those affected by severe weather through theyallsquad.org.

Takeaways

  • ☁️ A large mass of clouds is causing severe weather problems in the southern states of the U.S., including Texas, Louisiana, and Florida.
  • 🌪️ The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for certain areas, with a particular emphasis on damaging winds.
  • 🌬️ While there is a hail threat and a tornado threat cannot be ruled out, the main concern is the potential for damaging winds, especially in East Texas and the Florida panhandle.
  • 🌧️ The first round of storms is expected to cause problems across the Deep South, with a second round anticipated to follow.
  • 🕒 The timing of the storms is such that the first round will be dying out as new storms form, with peak activity expected around 4 p.m. local time in various regions.
  • 🌡️ The weather pattern suggests that the eastern U.S. will continue to experience rain and thunderstorms, with a persistent blue blob indicating sinking air and cooler temperatures.
  • 🌤️ A ridge is attempting to form in the northwest, which could bring nicer weather, but also the potential for more showers and thunderstorms as the week progresses.
  • 🌧️ There is a high likelihood of rain and thunderstorms continuing through the end of the week, especially in the eastern part of the U.S.
  • 🚨 The tornado threat is not zero, particularly around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, with a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the affected zone.
  • 🌈 Despite the potential for severe weather, the overall pattern suggests that most people will experience slightly cooler and wetter weather as a result of the trough moving into the north.
  • 📅 Looking ahead, the weather pattern is notorious for creating a battle zone with lots of storms and chances for severe weather towards the end of May, which is the peak of the severe weather season.

Q & A

  • What weather phenomenon is causing problems in the southern region?

    -A large mass of clouds, referred to as a 'big old blob of clouds,' is causing problems in the southern region, associated with an enhanced risk of severe weather.

  • Which states are under an enhanced risk of severe weather according to the Storm Prediction Center?

    -Texas, Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the panhandle of Florida are under an enhanced risk of severe weather.

  • What is the primary threat associated with the incoming storms?

    -The primary threat associated with the incoming storms is damaging winds, with a potential for hurricane force winds at times.

  • Is there a significant hail threat with the approaching storms?

    -While there is a hail threat, it is not considered significant compared to the wind threat.

  • What is the tornado threat level in the area around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama?

    -There is a 5% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given point in the specified area, and a 2% probability in the surrounding green zone.

  • What time frame is expected for the first round of storms to cause problems across the Deep South?

    -The first round of storms is expected to cause problems across the Deep South during the time of filming and will likely fizzle out by 4 p.m.

  • When is the hail threat expected to be the greatest?

    -The hail threat is expected to be the greatest around 4 p.m. Eastern or 3 p.m. Central time.

  • What weather pattern is expected to form around 8 p.m. that could affect southeast Louisiana and New Orleans?

    -A classic squall line or bow echo is expected to form, which could bring damaging winds to southeast Louisiana and New Orleans between 8 and 10 p.m.

  • What is the expected weather pattern in the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday?

    -A spinning area of low pressure in the Midwest moving into the Ohio Valley is expected to spark new storms, potentially including small hail makers and isolated damaging wind events.

  • How does the weather pattern in the northwest and central U.S. influence the upcoming weather?

    -A big Ridge is trying to form in the northwest, which could bring nicer and cooler weather, while a bit of moisture from the Pacific and cooler air from Canada could lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms towards the weekend.

  • What is the general weather outlook for the latter part of May?

    -Towards the latter part of May, an extended period of nicer weather and higher temperatures is expected in the south towards the Great Lakes region due to a ridge, while the northwest will experience constant troughing with cooler air.

  • What is the potential for flash flooding in the deep south over the next few days?

    -There is a significant potential for flash flooding in the deep south, particularly from South Carolina towards Louisiana, due to the heavy rainfall expected from the incoming storm systems.

Outlines

00:00

🌪️ Severe Weather and Storm Predictions

The video script discusses an impending severe weather situation, particularly in the southern states of the U.S. A large mass of clouds is causing concern, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing an enhanced risk of severe weather for regions including Texas, Louisiana, parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle. Two rounds of storms are expected, with the first occurring during the filming and the second following the video's release. The primary threat is damaging winds, especially in East Texas and towards the Florida panhandle, with a possibility of hurricane force winds. Although hail and tornado threats exist, they are not the main concern. The video provides a timeline for the storms, with specific times for various locations to expect severe weather. The radar images are also described, showing the progression of the storms throughout the day and into the next. The script also touches on the potential for tornadoes in certain areas, such as New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, with a 5% probability within a 25-mile radius of specific zones. Lastly, the script mentions the formation of new storms in the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, which could bring small hail and isolated damaging winds.

05:03

🌧️ Rainfall Predictions and Future Weather Patterns

The second paragraph focuses on the rainfall predictions and the broader weather patterns expected over the next week and beyond. It highlights that a significant amount of rain is expected in certain areas, particularly in the deep south from South Carolina to Louisiana, where there is a risk of flash flooding. The script outlines that while the rain will fall over an extended period, causing only minor accumulations each day, the cumulative effect could lead to flooding issues. The video also discusses the potential for recurring storms and severe weather, especially in May, due to the formation of a ridge in the south and cool air from the northwest affecting the north central U.S. The script provides a visual representation of the areas likely to receive the most rain, indicating that while some regions will experience heavy rainfall, it will not be concentrated enough to cause major flash flooding. The speaker reassures viewers that there are no major storm systems or tropical activity to report at the moment and encourages donations to support their efforts in helping those affected by severe weather through their nonprofit organization.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Severe Weather

Severe weather refers to any potentially hazardous atmospheric condition that could pose a significant risk to life, property, or the environment. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses an enhanced risk of severe weather due to a large mass of clouds, which is expected to bring damaging winds and potentially tornadoes to certain regions, particularly in the southern United States.

💡Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is an office of the National Weather Service that is responsible for issuing watches, warnings, and forecasts for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the United States. The video mentions the SPC's role in identifying an enhanced risk area for severe weather, indicating the gravity of the situation and the importance of their forecasts in preparedness and safety measures.

💡Damaging Winds

Damaging winds are high-speed winds that can cause significant harm to structures, vegetation, and can even lead to power outages. The video script highlights the threat of damaging winds, especially in East Texas and towards the panhandle of Florida, where they could reach hurricane force at times, making them the primary concern in the forecasted severe weather event.

💡Tornado Threat

A tornado threat refers to the potential for tornadoes to form under certain weather conditions. While the video does not indicate a high likelihood of tornadoes, it does not rule them out entirely, especially in areas around New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The mention of a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in a specific zone underscores the need for vigilance and preparedness.

💡Hail Threat

A hail threat indicates the possibility of hailstones falling as part of a storm, which can range in size and cause damage to crops, vehicles, and buildings. The video script notes that while there is a hail threat associated with the weather system, it is not considered a primary concern in this instance, suggesting that other weather hazards, such as damaging winds and tornadoes, are of greater concern.

💡Radar Imagery

Radar imagery is a visual representation of weather data collected by radar systems. It helps meteorologists analyze and predict weather patterns and potential hazards. The video discusses what the radar is expected to look like throughout the day, indicating the progression of storms and the timing of various weather threats.

💡Squall Line

A squall line is a line of severe thunderstorms that forms under the leading edge of a cold front, often bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and sometimes hail or tornadoes. The video mentions the formation of a classic squall line or bow echo, which is expected to move into southeast Louisiana and New Orleans, bringing damaging winds to the area.

💡Flash Flooding

Flash flooding occurs when excessive rainfall in a short period of time overwhelms the capacity of the ground to absorb water, leading to rapid flooding in urban areas, rivers, and streams. The video suggests the possibility of flash flooding due to the expected heavy rainfall and damaging winds, particularly in the Deep South.

💡Height Anomalies

Height anomalies refer to deviations in atmospheric pressure patterns that can influence weather systems. The video discusses blue blobs on a map, which are associated with sinking air, cooler temperatures, and weather systems that bring rain and thunderstorms. These anomalies are indicative of the weather patterns expected in the eastern part of the U.S.

💡Ridge

In meteorology, a ridge is a large area of high atmospheric pressure that can influence the movement of weather systems. The video mentions a ridge trying to form in the northwest, which could bring nicer and cooler weather to the region. However, it also suggests that this pattern could lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms as the ridge interacts with other weather systems.

💡Cutoff Low

A cutoff low is a region of low pressure that has become detached from the main belt of westerlies and can lead to unstable weather conditions. The video script refers to a cutoff low moving through the south, which is expected to lead to another storm system similar to the one being discussed, indicating a continuation of the unsettled weather in the region.

Highlights

Severe weather is expected in the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the panhandle of Florida due to a large cloud mass.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for the aforementioned areas.

Two rounds of storms are anticipated, with the first occurring during the filming and the second around the time the video is released.

The primary threat from the storms is damaging winds, particularly in East Texas and towards the panhandle of Florida.

There is a potential for hurricane force winds, although hail and tornado threats are considered lower.

Tornado probability within 25 miles of any point in the highlighted brown zone is 5%, and 2% in the green zone.

The radar forecast indicates the first round of storms will fizzle out, with new storms developing in Southeast Texas and Houston.

Hail threats are expected to be the highest around 4 p.m. Eastern, 3 p.m. Central, with potential for damaging winds and flash flooding.

By 8 p.m., a squall line or bow echo is expected to form, moving into southeast Louisiana and New Orleans with damaging winds.

The storms are projected to hit southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the panhandle of Florida in the early morning hours of Tuesday.

A fast-moving damaging wind event is anticipated, with minimal supercellular activity and low tornado threats.

A low-pressure system in the Midwest is expected to spark new storms on Tuesday, possibly producing small hail and isolated damaging winds.

Thunderstorms are also forecast for South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and potentially Canada and New England, though they are not expected to be significant.

A persistent blue blob on the map indicates a pattern of sinking air, cooler temperatures, and a higher chance of rain and thunderstorms in the eastern U.S.

A ridge is attempting to form in the northwest, which may bring nicer and cooler weather, but also the potential for more showers and thunderstorms.

The pattern could lead to localized severe weather, especially in May, which is the peak of the severe weather season.

A detailed map shows the probability of rain on Tuesday, May 14th, with the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms in certain areas.

There is a risk of flash flooding in the deep south, particularly from South Carolina to Louisiana due to the amount of rain expected to fall.

The weather pattern over the next 8 to 14 days suggests a continued risk of recurring storms and potential severe weather, especially in May.

No major storm systems or tropical activity are currently expected, providing a temporary break before the next potential severe weather event.

The y'all squad is actively helping towns impacted by severe weather and accepting tax-deductible donations for their 501c3 Nonprofit organization.

Transcripts

00:00

Hello there, it's me again. We've got more severe  weather on the way and a lot of other stuff to  

00:04

talk about in the weather world, so let's get  right into it. First of all, this big old blob  

00:08

of clouds right here is causing us some problems  today in the south Let's go ahead and talk about  

00:13

that Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk  of severe weather for Texas, Louisiana Southern  

00:17

portions of Mississippi, Alabama and the panhandle  of Florida associated with that big blob of clouds  

00:22

that we just saw We got two rounds of storms  coming across these parts of the world here One  

00:27

of them's going across right now as I'm filming  this the other one's gonna get its act together  

00:30

around the time This video goes up. It's gonna  bring about some severe weather. Now. The main  

00:34

threat is gonna be this wind threat We're gonna  have damaging winds, especially in East Texas  

00:38

over there towards the panhandle of Florida an  excessive hurricane force at times But for the  

00:42

most part, this is gonna be the biggest problem  There's not much of a hail threat even though  

00:46

there is a hail threat and there's also not as  much of a tornado threat Even though of course we  

00:51

cannot rule out a tornado or two especially down  there around New Orleans Especially down there  

00:55

around Mobile, Alabama over towards, Pensacola  We've got a 5% probability of a tornado happening  

01:00

today within 25 miles of any given point in that  brown zone there and even in The green that's 2%  

01:06

Here's what the radar is gonna look like for the  rest of the day 4 p .m. Our first round of storms  

01:11

It's probably already caused quite a few problems  across the Deep South is gonna be fizzling out  

01:15

Okay, but we're gonna have some new storms popping  up back here in Southeast, Texas Houston Watch out  

01:20

4 p.m. Eastern 3 p.m. Central, honestly at this  point This is probably when the hail threats  

01:24

gonna be the biggest so you guys could probably  get in on some hail But certainly some damaging  

01:28

winds are possible over there Maybe even some  flash flooding things are gonna get a little  

01:32

bit more organized as we go towards 8 p.m As we're  starting to see one of those classic squall lines  

01:38

or bow echoes form here This is when things  are gonna be moving into southeast, Louisiana,  

01:42

New Orleans You guys can expect some of those  damaging winds between 8 and 10 p.m Tonight those  

01:47

will also be moving into southern Mississippi and  Alabama and then things really get going here in  

01:51

the panhandle of Florida in The early morning  hours right before completely dying out almost  

01:57

as we get into 5 6 7 a.m. On Tuesday So here's the  progression of that. Once again, it's gonna be a  

02:02

very quick-hitting fast-moving damaging wind wind  bag Essentially the tornado threats not zero, but  

02:08

I just don't see a lot of supercellular activity  here Definitely get ready for those winds and then  

02:13

as that stuff continues to die out across the Gulf  of Mexico Watch the spinning area of low pressure  

02:19

up here in the Midwest moving into the Ohio  Valley spark up some new storms on Tuesday Okay,  

02:25

these could actually be some small hail makers  some isolated damaging wind makers on Tuesday  

02:30

in the afternoon and evening in Kentucky  down into Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama,  

02:33

Georgia We've also got a chance of some hailers  and some general thunderstorms up here in South  

02:38

Dakota Nebraska back into Wyoming a couple claps  of thunder are possible up here in Canada down  

02:43

into New England But none of these really look  like they're gonna be big deals Okay, these are  

02:47

general garden variety spring thunderstorms get  used to them, especially if you're on the eastern  

02:52

side of the u.s We're gonna be dealing with this  for a while as you can clearly see here through  

02:56

our blue blobs on this map here We're looking at  height anomalies and typically the blue blobs are  

03:01

associated with sinking air cooler temperatures  and weather systems that bring about rain and  

03:06

thunderstorms So you can see we've got a pesky one  of those blue blobs hanging out all the way until  

03:10

the latter part of the week Here in the eastern  part of the u.s. Once again, this is going to  

03:14

keep those rain chances around in those general  garden variety Thunderstorms around through the  

03:19

end of the week. We've got a big Ridge trying to  form up here in the northwest Bring it about some  

03:23

nicer weather some cooler weather but a little  bit of moisture from the Pacific and some cooler  

03:27

air from Canada's gonna try to come down into  the central u.s. As we go towards the weekend  

03:32

This will likely lead to another round of showers  and thunderstorms now This one could probably end  

03:37

up causing a larger storm system that we might  have to watch a little bit closer This kind of  

03:42

pattern in the past, especially in May does have  a tendency to try to produce some localized severe  

03:47

weather But for the most part I really do think  that the vast majority of people here are just  

03:51

gonna experience some slightly cooler weather and  wetter weather as a result Of this larger trough  

03:56

that's coming into the north here We're gonna have  another cutoff low go through the south leading to  

04:00

likely another storm system kind of like what  we're seeing today Down there in the south as  

04:04

we go towards the weekend and the overall pattern  is eventually gonna build to this situation where  

04:08

we're gonna have constant troughing over here  in the northwest bringing cooler air into the  

04:12

Pacific Northwest and we're really gonna try  to have An extended period of time where we  

04:16

get a ridge down here in the south over towards  the Great Lakes region where we get our Period  

04:21

of nicer weather and some higher temperatures  as we go into the latter part of May But this  

04:25

kind of pattern is notorious for in the middle  creating a battle zone where we're gonna have lots  

04:30

of storms lots of chances for severe weather  as we go through the end of May which is our 

04:34

Ideological peak of severe weather season and  just to kind of put all that into an easier  

04:40

to digest form for you here This is where it's  gonna rain Tuesday May 14th at 5 p.m For example,  

04:45

everybody in the green has a chance of rain  the darker greens are heavier rain, maybe some  

04:49

thunderstorms We've got a little bit of snow even  moving into the higher elevations of Wyoming back  

04:54

here with some of that cooler air loft Associated  with our blue blobs notice how that rain lingers  

04:58

in the east for quite some time and then we get  that other storm system moving in and it's just  

05:02

gonna be a Constant rain fest for a lot of us in  the east until we get that Ridge trying to build  

05:08

up here Which is gonna happen as we go towards the  end of May all the way between now and May 22nd  

05:13

These are the areas that are likely to see the  most rain This tells the story of like what the  

05:17

weather's gonna be like over the next week or so  anybody in the oranges or reds There's quite a bit  

05:21

of rain that's gonna fall here I wouldn't worry  too much about it because a lot of this is gonna  

05:25

fall over an extended period of time You might get  a half an inch this day an inch this day. None of  

05:30

this is likely gonna cause flash flooding problems  However in the deep south from South Carolina back  

05:34

towards, Louisiana You guys could actually have  some flooding problems a lot of this is gonna  

05:38

fall today But we do have that other system that's  gonna work through during the weekend It's gonna  

05:42

bring some more heavy rain down here. So flash  flooding is definitely on the table for you guys  

05:46

Unfortunately beyond that the only thing that  we've got to watch out for it Once again is our  

05:49

Ridge building up in the south and our cool air  Continuing to come down from the northwest into  

05:55

the more north central portions of the US. This  is between the next 8 and 14 days So we're looking  

05:59

deep into the future here Our pattern could shift  a little bit like this and once again any time you  

06:04

see a pattern like this you have to draw this Line  in between them and that's where you're likely  

06:09

to see recurring storms and maybe even severe  weather, especially in May So thankfully there's  

06:13

nothing huge going on here. I don't have any like  major storm systems to show you nothing happening  

06:18

in the tropics yet We're gonna enjoy this little  bit of a break. I'm gonna keep you updated We're  

06:23

gonna keep doing the weather and all that stuff  But hopefully we go a couple weeks before we have  

06:27

to talk about another potential tornado outbreak  or anything like that in the meantime We've  

06:31

got a lot of work to do the y'all squad has its  plate full Because we've got a lot of towns that  

06:36

we're gonna be going to to try to help people  that were just impacted by severe weather So,  

06:39

of course, nobody has to donate But if you want  to make a contribution to our efforts over here  

06:44

on theyallsquad.org You can hit that donate button  and make a tax-deductible donation to our official  

06:49

501c3 Nonprofit organization and every penny is  going to go towards helping someone who has been  

06:55

affected by severe weather whether it's hurricanes  Tornadoes flash floods we've covered it all in the  

07:00

past. We're gonna continue to cover it all in the  future Thank you guys so much for allowing us to  

07:04

do this and that's all I have for you today  I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye Whoop!

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