Pre Market Report 27-Mar-2024
TLDRIn this pre-market report, the host PR Sund shares personal news of turning 60 and shifting focus to health over wealth. The discussion transitions to market analysis, noting the US markets' recent consolidation and slight downturn, attributed to profit booking. Despite significant domestic investment, markets have remained relatively flat. The speaker highlights positive aspects such as global cues and domestic buying, but also addresses concerns like HDFC Bank's performance and the upcoming election's potential impact on the market. The video concludes with speculation on market trends and the importance of strategy for option writers.
Takeaways
- 🎉 PR Sund is celebrating his 60th birthday and shifting focus from wealth to health.
- 🏊 He has recently started swimming again after a long gap, feeling healthier for it.
- 📉 US markets were good but experienced a sudden fall in the last half an hour due to profit booking.
- 🔄 The markets seem to be in a consolidation mode, awaiting the next corporate earnings results expected in mid-April.
- 🌏 Asian markets are mixed, with Nifty indicating a 40-50 point gap down despite domestic institutions investing significantly.
- 💹 Domestic institutions have invested more than 50,000 crores in the capital market during March, yet the market has remained relatively flat.
- 📈 Despite the US markets being lower, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Infosys ADRs are slightly higher.
- 📉 HDFC Bank's share price fell significantly with no news to explain the drop, raising concerns.
- 🏦 Bank Nifty and the IT index are underperforming the markets, with Nifty closing just above the psychological 22,000 level.
- 🔄 The market continues in a consolidation phase with a negative bias, but a trending day could change the sentiment significantly.
Q & A
What is the significant personal event for PR Sund mentioned in the transcript?
-PR Sund is turning 60 and is becoming a senior citizen, marking a new phase in his life where he plans to focus more on health than wealth.
What change in lifestyle has PR Sund recently adopted?
-PR Sund has recently started swimming again after a very long time, and he mentions feeling better as a result.
How does PR Sund describe the current state of the US markets?
-The US markets are in a consolidation mode, with a sudden fall observed in the last half an hour due to slight profit booking.
What is the general trend observed in the Asian markets?
-The Asian markets are mixed, with Nifty indicating a 40-50 point gap down.
What significant financial activity did domestic institutions engage in during March?
-Domestic institutions have pumped in more than 50,000 crores into the capital market and the cash market.
How did FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) behave in the market from mid-March?
-FII started selling some times from the middle of March, especially when the SE directive came on midcap and small cap stocks.
What is PR Sund's strategy for option writers during a period of market consolidation?
-During a period of market consolidation, PR Sund made more than $50,000 in US markets by being a non-directional player, making money when the markets did not move significantly higher or lower.
What is the significance of HDFC Bank's performance mentioned in the transcript?
-HDFC Bank's performance is significant as it closed at the lowest point of the day without any apparent news, indicating a potential concern for investors.
What impact did the change in the Bank Nifty expiry schedule have on the market?
-The change in the Bank Nifty expiry schedule, moving the monthly expiry to Wednesday from the previous Thursday, might have caused confusion among market participants, leading to higher premiums as some thought there were only two days until expiry.
What are the two stocks that PR Sund mentioned as recommendations?
-PR Sund mentioned Baj Finance and HDFC Bank as stock recommendations, noting that while HDFC Bank has not moved significantly, Baj Finance experienced a large fluctuation followed by a recovery.
What challenges does PR Sund foresee for the next two months in the market?
-PR Sund foresees challenges due to the upcoming corporate results and election results fever, expecting market instability until June or July.
Outlines
🎉 Personal Milestone and Market Health Focus
The speaker, PR Sund, begins by sharing a personal milestone of turning 60 and becoming a senior citizen. He reflects on the importance of shifting focus from wealth to health post-60. He also discusses his recent return to swimming after a long gap and feeling better for it. Transitioning to market analysis, he notes the US markets' good performance but mentions a sudden fall in the last half hour due to profit booking. He anticipates a consolidation phase for the markets, awaiting corporate earnings reports, particularly in the third week of April. Asian markets are mixed, and he notes the Nifty index indicating a gap down, with FIs not selling but instead buying for 10 CR. Domestic institutions have invested more than 50,000 crores in the capital market in March, yet the market has remained relatively flat. He concludes by mentioning that despite the market's stagnation, he made a profit in the US markets due to the consolidation phase, which is beneficial for option traders who play non-directionally.
📈 Market Analysis and Upcoming Challenges
In this paragraph, the speaker discusses the positive and negative aspects of the market. He starts with positive notes, mentioning that global cues are good and most Asian markets are higher, despite the US markets being lower the previous day. He highlights the recovery of US futures and the Australian inflation being lower than expected. However, he also points out negative factors, such as HDFC Bank's performance, which closed at the lowest point despite no news. He mentions the upcoming Parliament election in India and the potential fear of gamma effect on market performance. He also notes that two major indices, Bank Nifty and the Nifty index, are underperforming. The speaker ends by discussing the market's consolidation with a negative bias and the potential for a trending day that could significantly move the markets higher.
🔄 Market Volatility and Strategy
The speaker talks about the market's volatility, particularly focusing on the Bank Nifty expiry and how it may affect market behavior. He mentions that the premiums were unusually high, possibly due to changes in the expiry dates, with the monthly expiry now falling on Wednesdays instead of Thursdays. He reflects on the market's intelligence in factoring in all information perfectly, yet he was surprised by the high premiums. The speaker shares his thoughts on HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance, two stocks he had recommended earlier, and their performance. He notes that HDFC Bank has remained stagnant, while Bajaj Finance experienced significant fluctuations. He concludes by mentioning that Nifty is expected to open flat, and advises professional intraday sellers to wait for the first 45 minutes of trading to gauge market sentiment before making decisions. He anticipates that the next two months will be challenging due to corporate and election results.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Market Consolidation
💡Option Writers
💡Health over Wealth
💡Corporate Earnings
💡Bank Nifty
💡Market Sentiment
💡HDFC Bank
💡Parliament Election
💡Market Volatility
💡Option Premiums
💡Intraday Trading
Highlights
PR Sund shares personal news of turning 60 and becoming a senior citizen, reflecting on a new life phase focusing more on health than wealth.
The speaker has recently started swimming after a long time and feels better, indicating the positive impact of lifestyle changes on personal well-being.
US markets were good but experienced a sudden fall in the last half an hour, attributed to slight profit booking.
The market seems to be in a consolidation mode, awaiting the next corporate earnings results, which are expected to start in the third week of April.
Asian markets are mixed, with Nifty indicating a 4050 point gap down, while FII's did not sell but instead bought for 10 CR.
Domestic institutions have pumped in more than 50,000 crores in the month of March into the capital market, showing significant investment despite market stagnation.
Option raters can make money during periods of market consolidation, as was the case in the US markets over the last 15 days.
Global cues are good, with most Asian markets higher, and US futures recovered from previous losses, indicating a potential positive trend.
HDFC Bank's share price fell significantly with no news to explain the drop, which is unusual and may be a point of concern for investors.
India weeks shot up 5% for no apparent reason, possibly due to the approaching Parliament election and the fear of gamma effect in the market.
Bank Nifty and the IT index underperformed the markets, with Nifty closing just above the psychological level of 22,000.
The market's lack of significant movement despite heavy buying by domestic institutions suggests a period of consolidation with a negative bias.
Option writers may become complacent during periods of market stagnation, which can lead to trouble if the market suddenly moves upwards.
The premiums for Bank Nifty were unusually high, possibly due to confusion over the change in monthly expiry dates from Thursday to Wednesday.
Baj Finance, recommended earlier, has seen significant fluctuations, while HDFC Bank remained stable, showing the importance of diversified stock recommendations.
Nifty is expected to open flat, and the market may trend when investors are least expecting it, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the markets.
The next two months are expected to be challenging due to corporate results and election results, suggesting a period of potential market volatility.
The video aims to provide insights into market trends and personal investment strategies, offering a perspective on navigating the markets during uncertain times.