How Poland is Preparing for War

welcome back spare parts Army Poland is

now preparing for war in the hopes of

deterring it from ever happening in the

first place Poland is sending more

troops to its border with Belarus after

claiming two bellerian military

helicopters violated its airspace most

importantly I think that if Russia is

stopped in Ukraine it won't attack again

they intend to double their land forces

to a staggering 300,000 Personnel over

the next 5 years seeking to stop people

once and for all from claiming they

accidentally invaded Poland to put this

into context once once it's completed

Poland's military will be larger than

the French and German forces combined

which makes a lot of sense because a lot

is at stake for them polish prime

minister Tusk said quote we are living

in the most critical moment since the

end of World War II the next 2 years

will decide everything Poland aims to

achieve this gigantic goal by raising

their defense spending to 4% of GDP or

about $133 billion over the next 5 years

it's the highest percentage in the

entire NATO alliance it's it's like

they're throwing out their old military

and replacing it with a brand new one

but what challenges will Poland's

defense modernization efforts face along

the way what type of unique weapon

systems will they need to invest in and

which strategies will they Deploy on the

Tactical level I'm your average infan

Chris Cappy hit the like And subscribe

button and let's find out not my circus

not my monkeys it's a popular polish

saying that means it's none of my

business and I'm not responsible for

this volatile situation however when

your nation is located at the Crossroads

between eastern and western Europe when

it comes to geopolitics Poland rarely

has the luxury of it not being their

monkeys today Russian forces in Ukraine

are battling on a front line that's only

800 km away from Poland's border you

wouldn't even need to take turns driving

there it's like the same distance from

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week only Poland is one of the countries

most affected by this conflict because

they've already taken in 1.3 million

refugees from Ukraine Poland's publicly

stated justification for increasing

defense spending can be found in their

2020 National defense strategy paper

approved by their president quote the

most serious threat is the neo-imperial

policy of the authorities of the Russian

Federation the military aggression

against Georgia the illegal annexation

of Crimea and the activities in eastern

Ukraine have violated the basic

principles of international law and

undermined the pillars of the European

security system if that statement by the

Polish government sounds like a bunch of

paranoid hogwash to you like my

therapist always says to me then

remember Poland has the distinct honor

of being one of the most invaded people

throughout all of history they've been

invaded or fought battles hundreds of

times on their own soil in the past

10,000 years the Mongols tonic Knights

Nazi Germany the Ottoman Empire and

Russia are just a few of the usual

suspects to invade however on the other

hand critics of Poland's National

defense strategy like Robert cha state

that he believes they could have troubl

securing long-term financing for the

project he believes the large- scale

orders are driven by political populism

aimed at gaining popularity here and now

instead of being a well thought out plan

either way so the potential economic

advantages of their valuable geographic

location has been offset by the fact

that they have so few easily defensible

natural land boundaries rivers and

mountains to prevent foreign Invasion

imagine you just bought your dream home

but it's located in the middle of a

shooting r range that's that's Poland

this is part of the reason why Poland

lived under nearly half a century of

Soviet communist rule where their

economy was tightly controlled this

meant their development was constrained

by the higher priorities of the Eastern

block that is until they finally gained

genuine Independence in 1989 but Poland

instantly faced a major problem all of

their bases in military infrastructure

was created to facilitate advancing to

the West while defending against an army

trying to move to the East according to

a publication titled Poland's threat

assessment after 1991 Poland had to do a

complete about face and flip their bases

locations to face a threat from the East

this was a lot harder than simply moving

your no trespassing signs this was done

while simultaneously pulling off major

civil reforms to transform from a

centralized Communist economy to a

democratic free market one as a result

Poland experienced an economic

Resurgence but during periods of

prolonged peace and prosperity it's easy

to let down your hair and lower your

guard a little from 1995 to 2009 the

Polish military size was reduced from

300,000 to a low of

121,000 many units were disbanded and

training centers closed their doors

according to the research paper titled

defense and Industrial policy in Poland

by Marcy turowski even as Poland's

economy grew their defense manufacturing

capabilities atrophied and received less

funding in 1999 Poland joined NATO and

in 2004 the European Union in an effort

to solidify alliances and maintain that

sovereignty but this had the KnockOn

effect of purchasing tanks from foreign

NATO allies becoming dependent on them

instead of their own industrial base

Poland's former Minister of Defense said

quote until then the threat from the

East was underestimated however we soon

realized that the policy of reducing the

Army was leading nowhere and was the

wrong approach try as Poland might to

stay out of the geopolitical circus

those monkeys kept dragging them back in

because in 2014 the Russian invasion of

Crimea seriously spooked Poland they

took two major steps in response the

first was transferring military

technology from the United States and

South Korea the second was consolidating

defense industrial base from 50 separate

polish companies down to one single

holding called the pgz then in 2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine saw Poland

taking the step of kicking their effort

to get rid of their old Soviet era

equipment into high gear 260 tanks were

gifted to Ukraine which is almost all

their Soviet era T-Series based tanks

it's like the old polish saying goes

with the hag off the carriage it's

easier on the horses that was considered

politically correct in the 1800s because

now they could focus on replacing old

stockpiles with brand new Arsenal I

think one word can sum up all of

Poland's National procurement strategy

since then

Mass it's the piece of the puzzle that

Poland feels they can bring to the table

sheer Manpower this makes sense as their

population is currently in the top 10 in

Europe at an estimated 41 million people

and a land mass of over 320,000 Square

km that's a lot of ground to cover down

on and protect because the Lynch pin of

Poland's hold defense strategy revolves

around acquiring 1,300 new main battle

tanks but what will these tanks be

protecting take a look at Po's border

it's every military planner's worst

nightmare to defend Poland shares a 530

some odd kilm border with Ukraine

According To open- Source numbers there

are eight ports of ground entry between

Poland and Ukraine and an additional

four Railways these are where much of

Western military aid transits through

it's what we would call the main

high-speed Avenues of approach that

would need to be defended it would also

become a two-way range possibly in the

future Poland decided they need a

contingency plan in case this border

ever becomes hostile occupied by Russia

it gets worse because they also share a

continuous 400 km border with bellus

who's a member of the Moscow Le

collective security Treaty Organization

now there are 11 ports of Entry

connecting Poland to bellus according to

publicly available data just right there

that's a total of roughly 19 different

Avenues of approach for tanks to come

through in a worst case scenario polish

forces need to split up and disperse

throughout this territory to defend it I

can personally relate to this I also

have trouble setting up personal

boundaries however Poland has an ace up

their sleeve in 2017 their military

stood up the territorial Defense Forces

which is a 37,000 Strong Reserve unit

with the ability to call up an

additional 100,000 volunteers if needed

the territorial defense Force's main

mission is to guard against hybrid

threats from bellus in the East the

current conventional threat from bellus

is considered to be a medium threat with

only 2,000 Russian forces stationed

there and 50,000 active duty bellarus

professional soldiers we've seen how

bellus got creative in the past by

sending thousands of immigrants to

Poland's border to pressure them

politically however a larger concern

here is that in March 2024 Russian

tactical nuclear weapons were moved to

bellarus this created a pressing need

for air defense that we're going to get

into so there are four main highways to

cover but the problem is it's not like

those serve as perfect choke points when

we look closer when we zoom in on the

Tactical picture we can see how Poland's

geography plays a major factor their

land is made up largely of flat Plains

and Farms that are dotted with small

forests usually a few colmers wide this

makes the borders more porous less cover

and less concealment it's a major reason

why Poland requires this mass and

quantity because of the lack of natural

choke points it will all work out

somehow polish military authorities are

all too aware of this problem throughout

history and so the strategy they

developed is to deploy three polish Army

divisions equipped with The Cutting Edge

gear to three separate areas of

operation the first is the newly created

18th mechanized polish division that was

stood up in 2018 their mission is to

focus on defending the Southeastern

border the 18th mechanized division is

already pre-positioned in the Southeast

instead of having to spend valuable

weeks to deploy here's the map of some

of Poland's major rail networks that can

help facilitate Logistics the railway

through the city of zesu just 60 km from

the border has become a major hub for

Western Aid shipments into Ukraine and

the target of Russian spiry rings this

is why it's important to have stockpiles

and infrastructure here ahead of time as

a contingency plan next up is the 16th

mechanized division that's focused on

protecting the northeastern borders

especially here this is called the

infamous s Gap the thigh gap of Europe

the salki Gap is a narrow strip of land

about 65 km wide between bellarus and

the Russian exclave of kenrad this is

where Poland shares a direct border with

Russia the border is about 230 km long

with four major roadways connecting it

to Poland before the war in Ukraine

estimates placed a sizable 30,000

Russian troops and hundreds of tank

station there but they have since been

diverted to the front lines in Ukraine

this has left only only 6,000 Russian

troops behind assuming no changes some

Polish tanks will be tied up in the

north by the small force from the

operational perspective though control

over this Corridor was essential for

NATO to reinforce their Baltic allies in

case of a conflict prior to Russia's

invasion of Ukraine this location looked

like it was a major vulnerability to

Nato planners because of the potential

for Russian forces to skirt across to

bellarus linking up and effectively

cutting off the Baltic States from

resupply however that calculation has

now changed according to this article by

tenant of Euro News this threat is

greatly reduced today thanks to Sweden

and Finland joining NATO tenet says

quote to put it simply with NATO members

bordering most of the Baltic Sea Russia

would be unable to prevent Western

reinforcements arriving by sea if that

sounds like a lot to you I challenge

that assumption sir because Poland

resurrected the first Legion division

from 1944 to also deploy here it's the

first one that's formed from scratch

entirely starting in 2022 and will

consist entirely of state-of-the-art

equipment the first Legion division will

be the largest of them all and its goal

is to saturate or fill in the gap

between the 18th and 16th divisions so

that's why maintaining large tank

formations is strategically important

for Poland the unique requirement of

their geography makes it necessary but

the vast majority of Poland's new tanks

will come from the 820 South Korean k2s

that they plan on producing domestic

ically in their own country make haste

slowly part of the problem with any

defense procurement is just how long it

takes we have to adjust our frame of

mind from thinking about threats that we

Face Tomorrow to thinking about threats

we might face 10 15 years from now much

of Poland's new equipment will not be

fully acquired until 2030 or 2035 even

according to their own estimates the

world could look very differently by

then for all we know Taylor Swift might

not even be the top female artist

anymore more it'll take Poland until

2026 just to start manufacturing those

K2 tanks Warsaw has already ordered 366

American Abrams tanks for over $4

billion that amount will include

everything though from spare parts and

training to brand new repair

headquarters take a look at the Polish

city of pnan in the western part of the

country safely tuck away it's where the

Abrams training academy and new Abrams

repair plant is located this is actually

a lesson learned by Poland in the early

2000s when they first purchased foreign

tanks from Germany and they quickly

found themselves with no way to fix them

this Center will also fix damage Abrams

Tanks coming out of Ukraine so far five

of them have been knocked out there

Poland will receive 250 of the newest M1

A2 sep version three which will include

all those modern bells and whistles like

thicker armor on the top to counter the

newest thread of kamakazi drones this is

why in the meantime they've ordered

rapid deployment of 180 South Korean k2s

as a stop top Gap so far they've

received 46 k2s and 69 of the Abrams

ordered but in case things get spicy

quicker than that there's another idea

the Polish government has been kicking

around since 2023 they might request

stationing NATO nuclear weapons on their

own soil on April 30th 2024 very

recently Poland's president Duda met

with prime minister Tusk to talk about

whether or not they should try to enter

something called the nuclear sharing

program what's that it's a component of

NATO's nuclear deterrence policy that

provides nuclear weapons to member

states that don't possess their own it's

like lending your friend a book to build

trust with them it's it's exactly like

that analogy just since 2009 alone

Belgium Germany Italy the Netherlands

and turkey have all played host to

nuclear weapons that were given to them

through this sharing program sharing is

caring even when it comes to nukes this

is now being openly debated in Poland

Poland believes it's necessary in

response to bellus receiving nuclear

weapons under a similar program with

Russia check out our new merch if you

have a chance it's not shoot to kill

it's shoot to chill another challenge

Poland's Armed Forces face is how to

move thousands of infantry around such a

large country this requires infantry

fighting Vehicles that's why Poland

ordered 1,400 domestically built ifv

boruk vehicles to replace their 1,200

Soviet era bmps however only five

prototypes have been built so far and

their delivery isn't planned to be

finished until 2035 which leaves them

stuck with those bmps in the meantime

and this adds to the long list of

different types of vehicles that they

need to maintain which leads to one of

the next raised concerns about having so

many different types of vehicles is

going to increase the cost of logistics

but considering how large The Fleets of

all these vehicles are the economies of

scale should help mitigate that problem

whereas some other countries in Europe

have been criticized for not investing

in quantity we see that is really not

something you could say to Poland with a

straight face each country in NATO is

focused on acquiring different types of

weapon systems some are focusing on

quantity While others focus on nuclear

weapons Poland actually talks about this

being one of their four pillars of

Defense saying quote Poland takes into

account the context of their membership

in NATO the basic Factor shaping

Poland's security is its strong

embedding in the European structures in

the development of bilateral and

Regional cooperation with key partners

every stick has two ends the question of

whether or not Russia would invade

Poland again in the future is well

beyond my capabilities of answering as

as just a lower level ground I can look

at the statements made by both parties

on the one hand Putin has addressed this

question and said publicly that he has

no intention of invading Poland pinky

promise but Russia also stated they had

no plans of invading Ukraine in January

2022 and so on the other hand Poland's

president dud said quote We're a nation

who was enslaved by Russia several times

if Russia wins the war in Ukraine he

will attack one more time he will attack

other states so the Polish government

claims they view the threat from Russia

seriously there are two sides to every

story but something I don't think is

discussed often enough is how there are

many forms of warfare that can occur

short of that threshold of a full-blown

invasion of Poland our task and purpose

Discord Channel clu me in on the news

that this Espionage was already

happening Poland's internal security

service has uncovered multiple Russian

spy rings that were able to successfully

track weapons shipments from Poland into

Ukraine and then strike them with long

range fires they highlighted this in

their very own 20120 National defense

strategy document that is many pages

that I read so you don't have to it says

quote the Russian Federation carries out

activities below the threshold of War of

hybrid nature using non-military means

including cyber attacks dis information

to destabilize the structures of Western

States and societies to create divisions

among allies if Russian forces were to

Annex all of Ukraine there would

undoubtedly be gry Zone Warfare

including flying enemy fighter jets

through their airspace infiltrations

possibly fomenting Revolutions in their

territory or large-scale military

exercises on their borders there could

be drone and missile strikes within

their borders that still would not

amount to a full-scale Invasion these

are some of the same motivations the

Russian government has given for why

they don't want Ukraine to be friendly

to Europe in the west how you make your

bed will determine how well you sleep

Simply Having a massive amount of Tanks

isn't enough for Poland we've learned

tanks are vulnerable without air defense

systems this is why Poland struck a deal

worth up to $15 billion with the United

States for 48 of their Patriot missile

launcher stations and more than 650

Interceptor missiles to go with it the

Patriot has about 150 km max range and

can intercept ballistic missiles

aircraft and drones in theory this could

be enough coverage to protect Poland's

entire border their major cities and

their defense industrial base in some

cases a separate $5 billion agreement

with the United Kingdom for 100 of their

Naru air defense systems and 1,000

missiles is meant to ensure the

protection of their Ground Forces all of

these air defense systems are planned to

be synchronized under their integrated

battle command system Europe is

attempting to build an integrated

missile defense Shield like the iron

Dome and Poland is going to be at the

center of it Poland's former Minister of

Defense said quote we are drawing

conclusions from the war that is taking

place in Ukraine we know the methods

used by the Russians and we have no

doubt that anti-aircraft and

anti-missile defenses are an important

element of security another necessary

protection for tanks and air defense

assets to maneuver freely is artillery

protection $450 million will go to

ramping up Poland's artillery shell

production currently they produce about

30,000 artillery shells per year which

is about as much as the US produces in

one month their goal according to

defense 24 is to reach 200,000 per year

by 2029 the reason for this increase

isn't just to send them to Ukraine

they'll be needed to feed their

increased artillery Hardware Poland's

investing $2 billion on

672 South Korean K9 Howers many of which

will be produced domestically and 500 of

the americanmade high Mars launchers and

200 188 of the South Korean chanmo

rocket artillery these are longrange

strike capability out to 300 km and they

plan to acquire over 1,000 Munitions for

them at a combined cost of 12 billion

bucks I think this quote from Poland's

Former Defense Minister helps us

understand their perspective let us

assume the rulers of the Kremlin decided

to rebuild the Russian Empire our goal

is to create a situation in which a

strong Polish Army will actually deter

the aggressor and one of the most

important components of this Army will

be rocket artillery end quote according

to this line of thinking Poland has to

assume the worst case scenario there's a

concept from sunu that I think helps

explain this line of thinking it's

called being on death ground death

ground is when your opponent puts your

back up against the wall and forces you

to prepare for a fight however we've

learned that your artillery air defenses

and tanks they're all sitting ducks if

you can't maintain some level of air

superiority or at least contested

airspace

this is why Poland's acquiring 32 f-35a

lightning 2 Jets from the United States

as part of a 4.6 billion deal this will

complement their 48 f-16s and about 28

make 29s they're also purchasing 48 F50

Fighters for a total of over 150 fighter

aircraft and an additional $12 billion

will be spent on acquiring 96 of the

ah64 Apache Attack Helicopters Poland's

modernization will not be without its

Fair share of challenges though

according to Robert Cha's defense policy

paper Poland's demographic forecast show

a decreasing population which could make

doubling their forces tough to pull off

currently the Polish Army has roughly

70,000 active Personnel according to

open source numbers which means reaching

140,000 could be difficult but it's the

goal they're striving for there is no

loss without some gain opinion Research

Center survey from 2022 says that 79% of

polls believe that the war in Ukraine

threatens the security of the country is

it okay to say polls that sounds can you

say Jew pole they're okay both I think I

can't speak for the people but these

changes appear to be widely popular in

Poland beyond the clear National

Security factors that we covered it

might have to do with the fact that

Poland's government also increased

social program spending at the same time

increasing pay for teachers by 30% for

example which means you're getting both

guns and butter for dinner tonight