US Navy vs China's Navy - Battle in the South China Sea (Minute by Minute)

US Navy vs. China's Navy Battle in  the South China Sea (Minute by Minute) 

Minute 1. Xi Jinping is furious. 

The United States is encroaching into the South  China Sea again, and he’s had all he can stand  

with what he views as highly threatening behavior.  He’s handled these types of issues diplomatically  

before, he thinks to himself. Take the incident  with the USS Gabrielle Giffords as an example. In  

December 2023, that independence-class combat ship  sailed into the waters of the Second Thomas Shoal. 

That was unacceptable to Xi. Those waters are part of the Spratly  

Islands, a disputed territory between  China and the Philippines. But to Xi,  

there’s no dispute—he owns those waters, and any  U.S. incursion into them is an act of disruption  

that clearly exists to upset the delicate  geopolitical balance in the South China Sea. 

Back in December, Xi mobilized a small naval  force to track the USS Gabrielle Giffords until  

it docked. That was his subtle warning to the  U.S. – I see you and won’t tolerate having you  

in my waters. And it seemed to have worked. The  ship exited the disputed waters, and Xi returned  

to monitoring the situation. But now, it’s March 2024. 

And America is at it again. Worst of all, it’s  the very same ship encroaching into the waters  

that Xi believes he owns. To the Chinese  leader, one encroachment was a threat.  

The second is an act of war. Mobilizing  his naval forces again, he prepares for  

an attack that he knows will spark an all-out  battle with the U.S. in the South China Sea. 

One hour before the attack. Xi has mobilized a fleet to  

take on the USS Gabrielle Giffords, and he  is aware of the threats the ship presents.  

As one of America’s littoral combat ships, the  USS Gabrielle Giffords has standard armaments  

that seriously threaten the smaller ships in his  navy. Those threats include Mk 110 57-millimeter  

guns – capable of cutting holes into the hulls  of small ships and even fighter jets – as well as  

the dangerous RIM-116 Rolling Airframe missiles. The missiles limit Xi’s missile options because  

they’re designed to destroy cruise missiles fired  at the USS Gabrielle Giffords. They’re fast, too,  

capable of reaching supersonic speeds in  excess of Mach 2 to deliver a 7.9-pound  

warhead onto their target. Not only does Xi have  to worry about those missiles taking out his own,  

but he knows the USS Gabrielle Giffords could use  them to attack his ships. Still, the ship only has  

a limited stock of those missiles, so a barrage  should be enough to overwhelm and sink the ship. 

But Xi has another advantage: A destroyer isn’t shadowing the ship. 

He knows that littoral combat ships are  a black sheep in the U.S. Navy, with many  

reports suggesting that they’re used for testing  ideas before being placed onto combat-ready ships.  

That’s why a destroyer usually flanks them –  they’re not strong enough to fend off a concerted  

attack on their own. Granted, that means the ship  doesn’t present much of a threat to China. But Xi  

can’t take these encroachments into his territory  lying down, so he’s put his plan into action. 

The naval fleet he’s deployed includes Wuxi,  a Type-055 cruiser that’s equipped with  

China’s newest anti-ship missile – the YJ-21. Faster than the RIM-116 missiles installed on  

the USS Gabrielle Giffords, the YJ-21 can  reach hypersonic speeds that exceed Mach  

5. And at 27 feet long, they’re large enough  to pack a warhead that could cause serious  

damage to America’s vessels. Xi’s small naval force gets  

into position near the USS Gabrielle Giffords. Inside the Gabrielle Giffords, the captain relays  

information back to base. His unenthusiastic  tone suggests that he thinks this is just  

another instance of China monitoring the ship as  it passes through contested water on its way to  

the Philippines. But something’s different. The  Wuxi is a warship—a destroyer capable of taking  

out the USS Gabrielle Giffords at a moment’s  notice. As he’s processing this information,  

the captain receives an alert. The Wuxi has fired. 

Within minutes, a barrage of YJ-21 missiles strike  the USS Gabrielle Giffords, evading the RIM-116  

defenses due to their higher speeds. The hull  is breached. The ship is taking on water. The  

amount of casualties is unknown. The Ship starts  to sink rapidly. And in what feels like a flash,  

China has just launched a naval attack on  the United States in the South China Sea. 

There’s no going back now. Xi intends to settle all territorial  

disputes in the South China Sea by force. Two hours after the initial attack. 

News of the USS Gabrielle Giffords’  fate reaches President Joe Biden. 

For a few moments, he sits in the Oval Office,  dumbstruck that Xi would launch such a brazen  

attack on a U.S. ship. This isn’t some standard  territorial dispute. Those always end with threats  

of admonishments from China. This is an act of war. 

Harried by his naval generals, Biden has to  devise a plan. It’ll take several weeks to  

deploy a powerful force into the South China  Sea, and intelligence being gathered by U.S.  

satellites shows that China isn’t deploying out  of that body of water. Instead, it’s shoring  

up its defenses, getting in position to take  on any ships that encroach on the territory. 

Biden has to take this threat seriously. China’s navy is one of the largest in the world. 

It’s larger than America’s, with 730 ships  compared to the U.S.’s 472. That amounts to  

a 258-ship difference. But Biden also knows  that China’s fleet is deceptive. Despite its  

high numbers, it primarily consists of small  patrol boats, frigates, and corvettes. That’s  

still a powerful defensive force, but America  has bigger and better equipment. It comes out  

on top in terms of destroyers, with 75 compared to  China’s 49, and it has slightly more submarines. 

However, its aircraft carriers may be the key  to America’s victory in the South China Sea. 

It has 11 compared to China’s two, and Biden  will be using them to launch an aerial assault  

from the waves later in the battle. But, for now, he has to prepare. 

That preparation starts with the Strait of Hormuz. The United States already protects the area in the  

Gulf region because it is crucial to the world’s  oil supplies. About 20% of all oil used flows  

through the strait, with China making heavy use  of it in particular. According to the Carnegie  

Middle East Center, China imported $128 billion of  crude oil from Gulf countries that use the Strait  

of Hormuz to transport their wares. Cutting  off that oil supply is a key focus for Biden. 

He must control this major oil chokepoint  to prevent oil from reaching China. 

Iran will be a problem, especially as it borders  the strait. But Biden hopes to leverage his  

relationship with Saudi Arabia to assert control.  Plus, U.S. naval forces were already deployed  

into the strait as recently as August 2023 to  fend off Iranian attempts to seize a pair of  

merchant vessels sailing through the passage. Now,  those very ships will serve the opposite purpose,  

barricading the strait to prevent oil from flowing  into China. They’re also backed by an Ohio-class  

submarine, which arrived in the strait in February  2024, that Biden will use to sink any Chinese  

ships that attempt to take the strait. It's not a perfect solution. 

Biden knows that China can still get oil from  Russia, though he also knows that Russia only  

accounts for 19% of China’s oil needs right now.  It’ll take time to up production and delivery,  

with Russia unlikely to be able – or willing –  to meet China’s requirements without charging  

enormous amounts of money. Through this  strategy, the U.S. hopes to squeeze China  

economically and in terms of fuel in preparation  for a war of attrition in the South China Sea. 

And that’s not the only way he intends to squeeze. Before preparing for battle, he also speaks to  

NATO leaders, especially those from the European  Union; collectively, E.U. nations import around  

$680 billion of goods from China annually. Biden  suggests sanctions – calling on Article 5 of the  

NATO charter to back up his call – that would  severely limit the income generated from America’s  

allies in Europe. Most NATO members answer his  call. Though Article 5 technically only covers  

an attack on a NATO ally on its own territory  – which wasn’t the case with the sinking of  

the USS Gabrielle Giffords – the organization’s  members recognize the threat that China presents.  

They choose to support the U.S., developing  sanctions in line with America’s to keep  

billions of dollars out of the Chinese economy. With those preparations complete and approval  

for his sanctions almost guaranteed as  China’s attack has united Republicans and  

Democrats in their outrage, Biden can  switch his focus to his main concern: 

How to fight a battle with  China in the South China Sea. 

Five hours after the initial attack. Following the sinking of the USS Gabrielle  

Giffords, Xi orders his fleet to barricade itself  inside the South China Sea. Destroyers are sent  

to the Taiwan Strait, flanked by corvettes and  supported by submarines, to set up a perimeter  

along the Davis Line that separates the two  nations. They won’t attack Taiwan directly, as  

Xi can’t risk provoking them into his naval battle  with the U.S., but Taiwan has to be contained. 

Fortunately for Xi, the U.S. doesn’t  have any naval bases in Taiwan,  

meaning he doesn’t have to worry about  attacks from the island unless he instigates. 

He doesn’t intend to do so. The Philippines is a greater concern. 

Xi sunk the USS Gabrielle Giffords in waters  near the Spratly Islands, which the Philippines  

lays claim to as much as China. The Philippines  also hosts the U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay, which  

will be a key target for Xi. Located on Makin  Island, the base contains 6,000 military personnel  

and – as his satellite imagery shows – has been  bustling with activity since China’s attack.  

Among the ships stationed at the base is the  USS Makin Island, an amphibious assault vehicle  

capable of coordinating with ground and aerial  troops to launch assaults into enemy territory. 

That ship must not be allowed to reach China,  especially once the U.S. has delivered more  

of its navy into the South China Sea. Destroyers are sent toward the Philippines,  

each equipped with YJ-21 missiles that they’ll  launch against the USS Makin Island. Another  

surprise attack is prepared, with the next two  days seeing China launch missile after missile at  

U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay. The attack overwhelms  the small base, destroying it and crippling the  

Makin Island. The move infuriates Bongbong Marcos  – the Philippines president – but there’s little  

he can do in response. His navy is a seventh  of the size of China’s and is mostly made up of  

patrol boats. He can’t launch a counterattack and  can do little more than watch as China destroys  

the American base and blockades his country. Five days after the initial attack. 

Biden has been busy. He anticipated losing Subic Bay  

because of its proximity to China. It simply  wasn’t possible for him to mobilize ships in  

time to protect it, though the base at least  absorbed an intensive barrage that saw China  

expend dozens of its missiles before it fell. Instead, Biden has focused his initial efforts  

on bases a little further from China, though still  close enough to cause some damage. Specifically,  

America’s bases in Japan are put on high alert,  with the Seventh Fleet stationed in the country  

beginning operations. That fleet consists of  18 ships, including the USS Ronald Reagan,  

an aircraft carrier capable of holding  up to 90 fixed-wing jets and helicopters. 

That aircraft carrier will be the  fulcrum of Biden’s initial assault. 

Deploying the entire Seventh Fleet to the  outskirts of the South China Sea, with the  

USS Ronald Reagan being flanked and protected by  the other 17 ships in the fleet, the U.S. prepares  

to launch aerial assaults. The ships sail into the  Philippine Sea, though they go no further due to  

China having blockaded the South China Sea. But  they don’t need to. The USS Ronald Reagan hosts  

F/A-18E Super Hornets, equipped with laser-guided  air-to-air and air-to-surface Maverick missiles. 

Those planes are deployed from the USS Ronald  Reagan to rain missiles down on smaller ships  

in the naval perimeter China has created. These  smash-and-grab runs aren’t intended to destroy  

China’s fleet. Instead, the F/A-18E Super  Hornets get in, do whatever damage they can,  

and get out before China can respond. When  they’ve completed their mission, the hornets  

return to the USS Ronald Reagan, with America’s  Seventh Fleet entering into a schedule that leaves  

the Philippine Sea to restock as needed before  redeploying to cause damage from a safe distance. 

Twenty days after the initial attack. Xi is sick of the aerial attacks  

launched from the USS Ronald Reagan. Were it not for that ship, the rest of  

the Seventh Fleet would be little more than an  annoyance to him. And because the fleet keeps  

withdrawing back to Japan at regular intervals,  he’s struggling to launch concerted attacks upon  

it, at least without traveling into the Philippine  Sea himself and chasing those ships back to Japan. 

Xi doesn’t want to do that because he doesn’t  want to get Japan involved in this naval battle. 

Instead, he decides to fight fire with fire. First, he deploys both of China’s aircraft  

carriers into the South China Sea, as close  as he dares to the Seventh Fleet. The Liaoning  

and the Shandong are the only carriers Xi has  active – China didn’t complete the Fujian in  

time for the beginning of the battle – and both  will be vital for contending with America’s aerial  

attacks. The problem is that they’re smaller  than the USS Ronald Reagan. The Shandong can  

hold up to 44 aircraft, with the Shenyang  J-15s on the ship being the main adversary  

to America’s F/A-18E Super Hornets, while the  Liaoning can carry 36, again primarily J-15s.  

Those fighters take to the sky, attempting  to reach the smaller ships in the Seventh  

Fleet but generally getting tied up in dogfights  with the Super Hornets. Still, the aerial battle  

is at something of an impasse, which at least  means his perimeter isn’t absorbing more damage. 

Xi also deploys his Type 0938 Shang II-class  submarines – capable of firing YJ-82 anti-ship  

missiles – into the South China Sea. However,  those missiles may prove of little use to his  

efforts to sink the USS Ronald Reagan. They  only have an effective range of 26 miles,  

meaning the subs must get up close and personal  to launch. That might not be as problematic an  

issue as it appears. The USS Ronald Reagan has  already been proven to have subpar submarine  

defenses – as confirmed in NATO wargames scenarios  with Sweden that saw the carrier getting sunk by  

subs – but the speed of the carrier is a problem. As a Nimitz-class carrier, the USS Ronald Regan  

can travel at over 30 knots or 35 miles per hour,  which is faster than Xis’ submarines. Still,  

having his subs in the water limits the carrier’s  movements, setting it up for his real weapon: 

The DF-26. This road-mobile missile system has  

been set up along China’s eastern coast and can  fire a carrier-killing payload to a moving target  

up to 2,500 miles away. Using his submarines to  influence the American aircraft carrier's course,  

Xi fires a volley of those missiles toward it.  Some are taken out by the USS Ronald Reagan’s  

anti-missile defenses, but enough find their  target to cause severe damage to the ship. 

However, it doesn't sink. But it – along with the rest of the  

Seventh Fleet – has to retreat to Japan. China continues to hold  

strong in the South China Sea. Twenty-five days after the initial attack. 

Losing the USS Ronald Reagan—albeit  temporarily—was a serious blow to the U.S.,  

but it wasn’t wholly unexpected. Without support  from the rest of the U.S. Navy, the Seventh Fleet  

could only be expected to last so long, even with  its smash-and-grab approach. The fact that it  

managed to do as much damage as it did, taking  out several Chinese destroyers and corvettes  

via its aerial bombardments, was a big win. And bigger wins may be coming. 

By the 25th day, the bulk of America’s fleet had  arrived in the waters surrounding the South China  

Sea. America has learned its lesson from the  DF-26 launch, stationing its aircraft carriers  

outside the missile’s 2,500-mile range until it  needs them. And even with the loss of the USS  

Ronald Reagan, it still has ten carriers to call  upon. Five have entered the conflict, including  

dozens of destroyers, frigates, and corvettes. However, the general strategy doesn’t change. 

Most of America’s ships focus on forming a naval  blockade, with regular attack runs to pick off  

Chinese ships rather than invading the South China  Sea itself. Biden knows that a ship-to-ship fight  

would be massively damaging to his navy, even  though America would likely win due to the sheer  

force of its navy. He’s also wary of keeping  his ships so close to China – more missiles  

could come flying from the mainland at any moment. Still, the two Chinese aircraft carriers stationed  

in the South China Sea must be dealt with. But not yet. 

For now, the U.S. focuses on  building its own naval blockade,  

surrounding the South China Sea without  actually entering it, to pen China’s navy in. 

At the same time, China is starting to feel the  pinch of America and NATO’s sanctions. It has cash  

in reserves, but the loss of lucrative exports  and valuable imports into the country is taking  

its toll. Worse yet are the oil issues.  America’s successful blockade of the  

Strait of Horuz deprived China of millions of  barrels of oil per week. And though it’s made  

up for some of that shortfall by purchasing more  from Russia, it’s not enough to keep the country  

running for an extended conflict. Xi’s navy is on borrowed time. 

And soon, it will face a concerted  attack that goes far beyond the  

smash-and-grab attacks seen until now. Thirty days after the initial attack. 

The U.S. Navy sets about blockading the Lombok  and Sunda Straits with aid from the Philippines.  

Both are important trade routes into the South  China Sea, with the blockade forcing the few  

commercial ships still entering China to take the  Malacca Strait before they receive any protection  

from China’s navy. The resulting bottleneck  doesn’t stop ships from entering China. But  

it slows them down, piling more pressure on top  of the sanctions and control of the Strait of  

Horuz that America has already employed. With those blockades in place, the U.S.  

Navy is finally ready to attack. That attack starts with Taiwan. 

Though China hasn’t attacked the island directly  – instead choosing to set up a perimeter within  

the Taiwan Strait – it has underestimated the  strength of the support Taiwan is willing to  

provide the U.S. For Taiwan’s president – Tsai  Ing-wen – the loss of American influence in the  

South China Sea would put her island  nation at risk of attack from China,  

as they believe Taiwan should be part of China. So, she collaborates with the U.S. to wreak havoc  

within the Taiwan Strait. Though Taiwan’s navy  is small—numbering just 93 ships—its fleet of 22  

frigates and four destroyers takes advantage  of China's spreading its own navy throughout  

the South China Sea. The fighting is furious,  with ships being sunk on both sides. However,  

Taiwan knows that American ships  will soon bolster its attack. 

In addition to its navy, Taiwan deploys most  of its 286 fighter jets – including its 142  

F-16s and 129 F-CK-1 Ching-kuos – into the  fray. They’ll force China to dedicate aerial  

assets to the strait, including moving  one of its aircraft carriers nearer to  

the mainland. Missile fire from the Sky  Bow defense system also takes a toll on any  

Chinese fighters that stray too close to Taiwan. As Taiwan launches its attack, the U.S. brings its  

aircraft carriers to the outskirts of the South  China Sea. Dozens of fighters take to the skies,  

raining missiles down on China’s destroyers  to take their most dangerous ships out of the  

fight. America’s submarines have also reached  the battlefield, engaging in direct sub-to-sub  

fighting with China’s fleet of submarines. The  numbers are fairly even at first, but the U.S.  

starts to establish its superiority thanks to  all of its submarines being nuclear-powered.  

That makes them faster and reduces the need for  refueling, allowing them to outpace and destroy  

most of China’s diesel-powered fleet. After whittling away the diesel-powered  

submarine numbers, the U.S. can focus  on China’s six Shang-class subs,  

the only nuclear-powered submarines in China’s  fleet. Though usually a capable foe, those  

submarines cannot withstand the sheer numbers  brought against them, reducing their ability to  

serve as a threat to America’s aircraft carriers  in the same way they did to the USS Ronald Reagan. 

Slowly but surely, the U.S. starts  to whittle away at China’s navy. 

Forty-five days after the initial attack. China’s navy is far from defeated. 

However, it no longer dominates in the South  China Sea. America’s constant incursions – and  

its smart use of submarines – have allowed  its aircraft carriers to enter the sea,  

opening the way for more airborne attacks on  China’s frigates, corvettes, and destroyers.  

China has responded with jets taking to the  sky from bases on its eastern coast. Still,  

they face a swarm of Taiwanese and American  fighters in the air and powerful anti-aircraft  

defenses employed on America’s ships. China isn’t helpless, though. 

Due to their close proximity, China's land-based  missiles can still hit targets in the South China  

Sea, and they use that ability to take  out several destroyers and damage another  

American aircraft carrier. But despite this  positional advantage, fighting in the South  

China Sea is practically even. China might even  be able to withstand the American onslaught,  

relying on its land-based defenses to chip away  at America’s navy, if not for external factors. 

Beijing’s diesel stocks are running low,  hampered production by America’s sanctions  

and crude oil blockades. That’s a problem because  most of China’s ships, including its two aircraft  

carriers, run on diesel. Similar to the submarine  situation, all of America’s aircraft carriers are  

nuclear-powered, lending them speed and endurance  advantages over their Chinese counterparts. 

Beyond these resource-based issues, Xi  is also forced to look further afield. 

He hadn’t expected Taiwan to enter the fray –  he always assumed he’d be the one to start that  

fight – and the Philippines is gearing up to lend  its military might to the U.S. More worrying are  

South Korea and Japan. Both are military allies to  America – the three countries have agreed to the  

JAROKUS trilateral pact – and both were also wary  of China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific  

region before it sank the USS Gabrielle Giffords.  Neither has entered the battle yet, though they  

may do so if the U.S. starts to struggle. That  would be a problem for China – the combined naval  

power of Japan and South Korea amounts to 355  vessels. Alone, neither is capable of defeating  

China’s navy. However, in support of the U.S.,  Japan, and South Korea entering the South China  

Sea, it would mean that America finally has  the numbers advantage and superior strength. 

There are other concerns. Australia’s small navy may also enter the fray due  

to concerns about China’s influence. That country  and the U.K. also have an alliance with the United  

States that could feed into this cooperation,  further bolstering America’s numbers. Even if  

China can do more damage to the American vessels  in the South China Sea, those alliances mean the  

U.S. can always retreat to friendly territory  and regroup before launching renewed attacks. 

Xi’s forces will continue to fight  for now if only to save face. 

But it’s becoming increasingly clear to China’s  president that his attempt to dominate the South  

China Sea has resulted in a war he can’t handle. Sixty days after the initial attack. 

The battle has reached a deadlock. China and the U.S. are still attacking  

each other’s ships, occasionally achieving  success, but it’s clear to both that this battle  

is doing little more than slowly destroying  their naval resources. Worse yet, China has  

endured two months of sanctions and faces the  prospect of igniting a world war that would see  

America’s allies further lend their strength to  the U.S., perhaps eventually forcing an incursion  

into Chinese territory in the process. It is better to stop the battle now  

and rebuild for a future in which Xi  can launch a more strategic attack. 

Xi and Biden enter negotiations, eventually  agreeing to withdraw most of their naval  

forces from the South China Sea. Little, if  anything, is resolved, including the territorial  

dispute that China has with the Philippines  that started the entire battle. Instead,  

each nation retreats to lick its wounds and  rebuild the naval assets it lost in the fighting. 

Still, there’s one silver lining for Xi. Taiwan’s entry into the fighting  

saw it lose many ships and planes. The fight with the United States may be  

over – for now – but Taiwan’s weakened state could  leave it open to an attack from Beijing soon. 

But what do you think? Is this scenario realistic,  or do you think either side would have a better  

chance of winning than the other? Tell us what  you think in the comments below, then check out  

“Why America Must Go to War if the Philippines  is Attacked.” Or watch this video instead!