Trump's Inflated DJT Stock Is a "Bubble," Truth Social Is a Failure, Experts Say: A Closer Look

Late Night with Seth Meyers
28 Mar 202412:25

Summary

TLDR这段视频脚本讲述了唐纳德·特朗普在面临巨额法律费用和迫切需要现金的情况下,其净资产意外飙升的情况。原因是他失败的社交媒体公司上市后,股价飙升,但专家们认为这是一个与公司实际状况脱节的“不可持续的泡沫”。特朗普的媒体公司,包括Truth Social在内,在纳斯达克上市首日股价大涨,尽管公司本身是一个失败的产品,亏损严重且用户数量锐减。专家们警告说,这种高估值可能只是昙花一现,而特朗普的股票价值完全取决于他的品牌,公司在其SEC文件中承认特朗普可能会降低公司价值。

Takeaways

  • 📈 特朗普的净资产意外飙升,原因是他失败的社交媒体公司上市。
  • 💰 特朗普急需现金,他的法律费用已超过1亿美元。
  • 📖 特朗普通过电视销售圣经,似乎在筹集资金。
  • 🏦 鲁迪·朱利安尼宣布破产,负债5亿美元,但仍在社交媒体上发布驾驶豪华汽车的视频。
  • 🚗 特朗普的媒体公司包括Truth Social,在纳斯达克首日交易中股价飙升。
  • 🤑 特朗普拥有新特朗普媒体公司60%的股份,市值达到46亿美元。
  • 📊 特朗普的净资产一天之内增加了40亿美元。
  • 💭 专家警告称,Truth Social的股票极度高估,可能是昙花一现。
  • 📉 Truth Social用户流失严重,月活跃用户同比下降51%。
  • 🏢 特朗普媒体公司去年前九个月仅产生了340万美元的收入,亏损4900万美元。
  • 🎯 特朗普的股票市场意外之财与他的业务现实无关,主要是特朗普支持者的购买狂潮。

Q & A

  • 特朗普的净资产为何突然飙升?

    -特朗普的净资产之所以突然飙升,是因为他的社交媒体公司上市后股价意外上涨,尽管专家们认为这是一个与实际业务脱节的不可持续的泡沫。

  • 特朗普目前急需现金的原因是什么?

    -特朗普目前急需现金,因为他在法律费用上已经花费了超过1亿美元,而且他的前律师鲁迪·朱利安尼宣布破产,欠下了5亿美元的债务。

  • 特朗普的前律师鲁迪·朱利安尼最近有什么引人注目的行为?

    -鲁迪·朱利安尼最近发布了一段视频,视频中他开着一辆可能是敞篷车的车辆,并且配文'Driving with the top down',这引起了人们的关注和嘲笑。

  • 特朗普的媒体公司包括哪些部分?

    -特朗普的媒体公司包括Truth Social,这是一个类似于Twitter的社交媒体平台,主要面向MAGA(让美国再次伟大)的支持者。

  • Truth Social的表现如何?

    -Truth Social的表现不佳,已经损失了数百万美元,并且用户数量在不断减少。截至上个月,其月活跃移动用户仅有约49.4万。

  • 专家们对Truth Social的估值有何看法?

    -专家们警告说,Truth Social的估值极高,其惊人的数十亿美元的估值可能只是昙花一现。

  • 特朗普媒体公司在2023年的前九个月的收入和亏损情况如何?

    -特朗普媒体公司在2023年的前九个月仅产生了340万美元的收入,同时损失了4900万美元。

  • 与Truth Social相比,其他社交媒体平台的表现如何?

    -与其他社交媒体平台相比,Truth Social的用户数量微不足道。例如,X公司(前Twitter)有7500万用户,Instagram的Threads功能的用户数量是Truth Social的十倍。

  • 特朗普媒体公司的股票代码是什么?

    -特朗普媒体公司的股票代码是DJT,与特朗普以前拥有的公开交易公司的股票代码相同。

  • 特朗普对选择在纳斯达克上市而不是纽约证券交易所的解释是什么?

    -特朗普解释说,他选择在纳斯达克上市是因为在纽约证券交易所会受到不公平的对待,并且人们不想在纽约上市。但这种说法是没有根据的,因为纳斯达克也位于纽约。

  • 特朗普的股票市场收益是否与他的业务现实有关?

    -特朗普的股票市场收益与他的业务现实无关,而是基于特朗普品牌的支持者的购买热潮。公司的SEC文件承认,特朗普可能会降低公司的价值。

Outlines

00:00

📈 特朗普净资产意外飙升

特朗普在面临巨额法律费用和迫切需要现金的情况下,由于其失败的社交媒体公司上市,其净资产意外大幅增长。专家们认为这是一个与实际业务脱节的“不可持续的泡沫”。特朗普的前律师鲁迪·朱利安尼宣布破产,背负5亿美元债务,却在社交媒体上发布了自己驾驶敞篷车的视频。特朗普通过各种方式努力筹集资金,但他的财务困境依然严峻。尽管如此,随着特朗普媒体公司的上市,他所持有的60%股份在账面上价值高达46亿美元,使他的净资产在一天之内增加了40亿美元。

05:02

📉 真相社交市值虚高

特朗普媒体公司旗下的真相社交(Truth Social)市值虚高,尽管公司业务失败,亏损数百万美元,用户流失严重。专家指出,该公司的股票被极度高估,其惊人的数十亿美元估值可能只是昙花一现。真相社交的月活跃用户数量下降了51%,并且用户基数不到五十万,与推特等社交平台相比微不足道。特朗普媒体公司前九个月的收入仅为340万美元,亏损则高达4900万美元。特朗普的股票市场意外之财与其业务现实无关,而是特朗普支持者和交易员利用特朗普支持者的热情推动的购买狂潮。

10:03

🏛️ 特朗普商业帝国的破产历史

特朗普的商业帝国,特别是特朗普酒店及赌场公司,曾申请过破产保护,负债高达13亿美元。现在,尽管他只拥有一个充满拼写错误的网站,他的纸面股票价值却与实际业务的失败形成了鲜明对比。专家们预测,这个泡沫最终将会破裂,股票价格可能会降至每股2美元以下。特朗普过去的商业失败和当前的法律问题使得这个泡沫的未来充满不确定性。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡净资产

净资产是指个人或公司资产减去负债后的金额。在视频中,提到唐纳德·特朗普的净资产意外飙升,这是因为他失败的社交媒体公司上市,尽管专家们认为这是一个脱离现实的不可持续泡沫。

💡法律费用

法律费用是指为了处理法律事务而支付的费用,如律师费、诉讼费等。在视频中,特朗普为了应对各种法律问题,已经花费了超过1亿美元的法律费用。

💡Truth Social

Truth Social是特朗普媒体公司旗下的一个社交媒体平台,被描述为Twitter的拙劣模仿,主要服务于MAGA(让美国再次伟大)的支持者。尽管该平台表现不佳,用户流失严重,但其股票在上市初期却意外飙升。

💡泡沫

泡沫通常指的是资产价格远高于其内在价值的现象,这种价格的膨胀通常不可持续,最终会破裂。在视频中,特朗普媒体公司的股价飙升被专家认为是泡沫,预示着可能的价格崩溃。

💡用户流失

用户流失是指平台或服务失去活跃用户的现象。在视频中,Truth Social的用户数量正在下降,月活跃用户同比下降51%,这表明平台正在缩小规模。

💡收入

收入是指公司通过其业务活动所获得的资金。在视频中,特朗普媒体公司在前九个月只产生了340万美元的收入,与此同时却亏损了4900万美元。

💡破产

破产是指个人或公司无法偿还债务,从而被迫清算资产或重组债务的法律状态。在视频中,提到了特朗普的前律师鲁迪·朱利安尼宣布破产,并且特朗普媒体公司也有可能面临破产的风险。

💡估值

估值是指对公司或资产价值的估计。在视频中,尽管Truth Social的表现不佳,但其估值却异常高,达到了110亿美元,这与公司的实际收入和用户基数严重不符。

💡股市

股市是买卖股票和其他证券的场所,通常反映了投资者对公司未来表现的预期。在视频中,特朗普媒体公司的股票在上市初期表现出了强劲的增长,但这并不意味着它能够持续。

💡特朗普

唐纳德·特朗普是美国的商人和前总统,视频中讨论了他的财务状况、法律问题以及他名下的社交媒体公司Truth Social的表现。

💡小企业

小企业是指规模较小、收入较低的企业。在视频中,尽管特朗普媒体公司估值高达数十亿美元,但其实际收入却非常低,符合联邦政府对小企业的定义。

Highlights

Donald Trump's net worth unexpectedly increased due to his social-media company going public.

The company's valuation is considered by experts as an 'unsustainable bubble' detached from the business's actual state.

Trump is in urgent need of cash, having spent over $100 million on legal fees, according to 'The New York Times'.

Rudy Giuliani, Trump's former lawyer, has filed for bankruptcy with $500 million in debt.

Trump's media company, which includes Truth Social, saw its stock surge 56% during its first day of trading on NASDAQ.

Trump owns 60% of the Trump Media company, a stake currently valued at $4.6 billion on paper.

Trump's net worth rose by $4 billion in a single day, despite his social-media company being considered otherwise worthless.

Truth Social is described as a 'dumb Twitter ripoff' primarily used by MAGA supporters and has been a significant failure.

The platform has suffered huge losses and is losing users, with only 494,000 active monthly mobile users in the US.

Truth Social's valuation is seen as a flash in the pan, with experts warning that the stock is extremely overvalued.

Trump Media generated only $3.4 million in revenue and lost $49 million in the first nine months of last year.

The company's revenue is so small that it qualifies as a small business by federal government standards.

The stock market windfall has no correlation with the actual performance of Trump's business.

Investors in the company may not have ever used Truth Social, with the stock's value solely based on Trump's brand.

The company's SEC filings admit that Trump's ongoing legal issues could negatively impact the company's value.

Experts predict that the stock price will eventually drop significantly, possibly below $2 a share.

Trump's previous publicly traded company, Trump Hotels & Casino, filed for bankruptcy in 2004.

The paper value of Trump's stock is far removed from the reality of his failing business.

Transcripts

00:02

-Just as he's drowning in legal bills

00:03

and in desperate need of cash,

00:04

Donald Trump's net worth has unexpectedly soared

00:07

after his failed social-media company went public

00:10

in what experts are calling an "unsustainable bubble

00:12

that is divorced from the reality of the business."

00:14

For more on this, it's time for "A Closer Look."

00:16

[ Cheers and applause ]

00:20

I don't need to tell you,

00:22

Donald Trump needs cash, and he needs it ASAP.

00:24

The guy's been hawking Bibles on TV

00:26

like he's trying to raise money to go to Jesus camp.

00:31

"The New York Times" reported this week

00:32

that he's spent more than $100 million on legal fees.

00:35

Now, I don't know what Trump's current lawyers

00:37

are doing with all that money,

00:39

but I can guess what his former lawyers would do with it,

00:41

based on what they're doing without it.

00:43

Rudy Giuliani, who recently declared bankruptcy

00:46

and declared debts totaling $500 million,

00:49

posted a video of himself this week behind the wheel

00:53

of what I can only assume is either a convertible

00:55

or a car missing its roof,

00:58

under the caption, "Driving with the top down."

01:03

Alright, I think I'm out on this "Thelma and Louise" reboot.

01:07

Knowing Rudy, he would probably miss the cliff.

01:09

By the way,

01:11

driving with the top down sounds like a euphemism

01:13

you'd use about Rudy Giuliani.

01:15

"I dunno.

01:16

I don't know if you should hire that guy.

01:18

Let's just say he's, uh, driving with the top down."

01:21

[ Laughter ]

01:23

Also, who's holding the camera in this video?

01:25

Who in their right mind would get in a car with the guy

01:29

who mistook the Four Seasons landscaping company

01:32

for a luxury hotel?

01:34

He probably thinks these road signs are suggestions.

01:37

[As Giuliani] Uh-oh! You know what that means.

01:38

We gotta drive crazy now!

01:41

Don't worry. The next sign says

01:42

"Only Rudys allowed."

01:44

[ Laughter ]

01:46

[Normal voice] So, Trump desperately needs money.

01:48

Now, Trump has spent his entire life wriggling his way

01:51

out of seemingly impossible jams.

01:53

But surely, surely,

01:55

there's no escape hatch for him this time, right?

01:58

-More breaking news tonight involving Donald Trump.

02:00

His media company, which of course includes Truth Social,

02:03

soaring in its first day of trading on NASDAQ,

02:06

surging 56% at one point during trading to $78 a share

02:09

before closing at $58.

02:11

-Trump now owns 60% of the new Trump Media company,

02:14

or roughly $78 million a share --

02:17

a stake that is, on paper at this hour,

02:20

worth $4.6 billion.

02:24

-The higher the stock goes,

02:25

the higher that Donald Trump's net worth is.

02:28

At yesterday's close,

02:29

Trump's net worth, according to Bloomberg,

02:31

a little over $7 billion.

02:32

It went up by $4 billion on Monday alone.

02:36

-That's right, Trump doubled his net worth in one day

02:39

after his otherwise worthless

02:40

social-media company went public.

02:42

This brings us to a segment called...

02:48

[ Laughing ]

02:50

I mean, I don't...

02:52

[ Laughing ] I don't understand.

02:55

So he doubles his net worth out of nowhere...

02:57

[ Laughing ]

02:59

...based on a worthless business, just in time to...

03:02

[ Laughing ]

03:04

...pay off the hundreds of millions he owes in fines

03:07

from lying about the value of --

03:08

I just don't -- I don't get it!

03:10

[ Laughter ]

03:12

[ Laughing maniacally ]

03:23

[ Scream-laughing ]

03:28

This has been "Seth Tries to Laugh About a Thing

03:30

That is Clearly Making Him Crazy."

03:33

Now, you might be asking yourself,

03:37

"Donald Trump has a media and technology company?"

03:39

And the answer is no, he doesn't.

03:40

What he has is a dumb Twitter ripoff

03:43

for MAGA trolls called Truth Social,

03:45

where he posts insane, typo-riddled, all-caps screeds.

03:48

You may have seen one of his posts

03:50

when someone else screen-grabs it and then puts it on Twitter.

03:52

Truth Social has been an abject failure,

03:55

has lost millions of dollars, and is hemorrhaging users.

03:59

-Experts warn the stock is extremely overvalued,

04:03

saying its staggering multi-billion dollar valuation

04:06

is likely a flash in the pan.

04:08

Truth Social has been racking up huge losses,

04:11

and as of last month,

04:13

only had some 494,000 active monthly mobile users.

04:18

-Truth Social is tiny.

04:20

We're talking about less than half a million

04:22

monthly active users on iOS and Android

04:24

in the United States.

04:26

For comparison, X, the company formerly known as Twitter,

04:29

it has 75 million users.

04:32

Even Instagram's Threads is 10 times bigger than Truth Social.

04:35

Not only that, but Truth Social is shrinking.

04:38

Monthly active users are down

04:40

by 51% year-over-year in February.

04:43

-Trump Media generated just $3.4 million of revenue

04:46

through the first nine months of last year, according to filings.

04:49

The company lost $49 million over that time period.

04:53

-The only way this business could be any more of a failure

04:55

is if, every time you opened an account,

04:57

you got a free Zune, a bottle of Crystal Pepsi,

04:59

a Blockbuster card, a Motorola flip phone

05:01

that came preloaded with a Myspace account,

05:03

and a round-trip

05:04

next to the door on Alaska Airlines.

05:06

So, just to recap, not only is Truth Social

05:09

a tiny business that generated only $3 million in revenue

05:12

while losing $49 million, it's also shrinking,

05:16

with unique visitors down 20% and active users down 51%.

05:20

Its revenues are so small -- and this is true --

05:23

it actually qualifies for the federal government's

05:25

definition of a small business,

05:27

which has revenue ranging from $1 million to over $40 million.

05:30

By comparison, here's how much money

05:32

Squatty Potty,

05:33

the plastic step stool you put your feet on

05:35

while you go to the bathroom,

05:37

made after it went on "Shark Tank."

05:39

-Squatty Potty has partnered with over 20 major retailers.

05:42

We're also in 20 countries all over the world.

05:44

We've now done $175 million in sales

05:48

since "Shark Tank."

05:49

-$175 million!

05:50

For something that helps you [bleep]

05:52

Compared to Truth Social,

05:53

which I guarantee is something

05:55

Trump does while he [bleep]

05:57

Trump's stock market windfall has nothing to do

05:59

with the reality of his business,

06:00

and that's obvious to everyone.

06:02

It's just a buying spree fueled by Trump supporters

06:04

and traders capitalizing on

06:06

the enthusiasm of Trump supporters.

06:08

I'm willing to bet most of the people investing

06:10

in this company have never even used Truth Social.

06:12

Here's an exchange from Fox News,

06:15

in which host Jesse Watters claimed he used the site

06:17

but wouldn't prove it.

06:19

-In the last nine months of 2023,

06:21

Truth Social generated $3.4 million,

06:23

and it lost $49 million in that span.

06:27

The valuation, which is $11 billion.

06:29

Compared to Reddit --

06:31

Right? Something that we've all been on, right? --

06:33

their valuation was $6.4 billion.

06:36

So, you think that a site

06:37

that has less than half a million users...

06:39

I mean, this is what -- These are facts.

06:42

-All these valuations are ridiculous, Jessica.

06:44

-Okay, then he's the Game-- It's like GameStop, right?

06:46

It's a meme, no? -Okay, you know what?

06:48

-You know how you look at this? -Well, it's actually not,

06:49

because I'm using it. -You look at this --

06:50

-Oh, you're on Truth Social? -I'm on Truth Social.

06:52

-Show it to me. -I'm not having you

06:54

look at my phone. -Show me your phone.

06:56

-[ Laughter ] -How dare you?

06:57

-Why won't you show her your phone?!

07:01

Oh, is the only app Candy Crush,

07:03

and do you have it downloaded twice?

07:05

Seriously, Jesse, why won't you show us your phone?

07:07

Is it because you're afraid we'll see the video

07:09

you took of Rudy driving his car?

07:11

[ Laughter ]

07:14

Trump himself seems to have no idea how the business works.

07:17

For example, the special acquisition company

07:19

Trump Media merged with is listed on the NASDAQ

07:21

rather than a larger New York Stock Exchange.

07:23

But when he tried to explain why,

07:25

Trump offered a mind-boggling and nonsensical answer.

07:27

-Truth Social is doing very well.

07:30

It's hot as a pistol and doing great, and it's going public.

07:33

And the New York Stock Exchange wants to have us badly.

07:36

And I told them we can't do the New York Stock Exchange.

07:38

You're treated too badly in New York.

07:40

We don't want to do the New York Stock Exchange.

07:43

And the people at the Stock Exchange are very,

07:45

very upset about it.

07:47

The top person is -- is mortified.

07:50

Can't believe it.

07:51

He said, "I'm losing business because of New York,

07:53

because people don't want to be in New York

07:55

and they don't want to go on the New York Stock Exchange."

07:57

-Alright. A couple things.

07:58

First of all,

08:00

the top person at the New York Stock Exchange is a woman,

08:01

so that story is obviously made up,

08:03

unless Trump is claiming he had a conversation with the bull.

08:06

[As Trump] The top person at the stock exchange came up to me.

08:09

Big bull, strong bull,

08:10

huge nuts,

08:12

tears in his eyes,

08:14

pouring down to his solid bronze snout.

08:15

And he said to me, he said,

08:17

"Mr. Trump, sir, the reason I'm frozen in place

08:19

is 'cause I'm so scared to be in New York."

08:22

[Normal voice] Second, the NASDAQ is also based in New York.

08:24

Third, you don't need to literally live in New York

08:26

to list a company on either the NASDAQ

08:28

or the New York Stock Exchange.

08:30

If Swiss company Nestle wanted to trade on the NASDAQ,

08:33

the CEO wouldn't have to move from Zurich

08:35

to a studio apartment in Bushwick.

08:36

[High-pitched European accent] "But I don't have room

08:38

for all my delicious chocolate!"

08:40

[Normal voice] I'm gonna assume the CEO of Nestle is a gnome,

08:43

and if it's not, don't ruin it for me.

08:47

And yet, despite the reality of the underlying business,

08:50

the stock debuted at nearly $7 billion in value,

08:54

thanks to a buying spree from Trump supporters,

08:56

which does not mean it'll stay there.

08:58

The stock's value is based entirely on one thing,

09:01

which is Trump's brand, and in its own SEC filings,

09:04

the company admitted Trump could tank the value.

09:07

They wrote that an adverse outcome

09:08

in one or more of the ongoing legal proceedings

09:11

in which President Trump is involved

09:12

could negatively impact the company,

09:14

and that a number of companies

09:15

that were associated with President Trump

09:17

have filed for bankruptcy.

09:18

There can be no assurances

09:20

that this will not also become bankrupt.

09:22

Uhh, sell, sell! Sell, sell, sell, sell!

09:25

Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell!

09:28

Nah, that was -- that was for a different thing.

09:30

[ Laughter ]

09:32

I thought this was foolproof!

09:34

Jesse Waters uses it!

09:35

[ Laughter ]

09:37

One expert told CNN that the stock price is clearly a bubble.

09:40

"I'm reasonably confident the stock price will eventually drop

09:43

to $2 a share, and could go even below that

09:45

if the company blows through the money it got from the merger."

09:47

Oh man, $2. If that happens, Trump's gonna be...

09:50

-Hot as a pistol.

09:51

-In fact,

09:53

that's basically already happened to Trump.

09:54

Trump once had a publicly traded company

09:56

with the exact same ticker symbol, DJT.

09:58

The company went public in 1995,

10:00

and then this happened in 2004.

10:03

-Trump Hotels & Casino files for bankruptcy.

10:06

-His Trump Hotels & Casino empire have filed

10:10

for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

10:12

The filings list $1.3 billion in debt.

10:15

-And that was when he had actual stuff, like real buildings.

10:18

Now all he has is a website

10:20

where he misspells words, like "Buden" and "grest,"

10:22

a real thing he did this week on Truth Social.

10:26

No other successful company does that.

10:27

I've never logged on to Amazon and noticed

10:29

they accidentally spelled their name with an extra "O."

10:32

[ Laughter ]

10:33

The paper value of Trump's stock

10:35

is wildly divorced from the reality

10:37

of the underlying business, which is an abject failure.

10:39

There's a good chance

10:41

that eventually the bubble will burst.

10:42

It all hinges on Trump,

10:44

a guy whose businesses have filed for bankruptcy

10:45

four times and who's in so much legal trouble

10:48

his house was raided by feds

10:49

looking for classified documents and yelling...

10:51

-Show me your phone!

10:52

-This has been "A Closer Look."

10:55

[ Cheers and applause ]

10:59

Hey, I hope you enjoyed "A Closer Look,"

11:01

and if you didn't, why are you still watching?

11:04

[ Laughter ]

11:05

Why would you stay for this part?

11:07

Anyway, did you know that we also have something on our show

11:10

called "Corrections"?

11:11

We tape it right after the audience leaves on Thursday,

11:14

and right after our cameraman, Buck,

11:16

does a whole tank of nitrous.

11:17

[ Laughter ]

11:24

It's full of inside jokes like that

11:26

that you couldn't possibly get...

11:28

[ Laughter ]

11:29

...unless you go all the way back to the beginning.

11:32

That's right.

11:33

I'm not telling you to watch "Corrections" starting today.

11:36

I'm telling you to go back and watch from episode one.

11:39

If you miss even one, the whole thing is [bleep]

11:42

[ Laughter ]

11:47

It's easily over 20 hours at this point.

11:51

It was nominated for an Emmy in 2021, in 2022, and never again.

11:57

[ Laughter ]

12:01

So the arrow is pointing down.

12:04

"Corrections." It posts every Friday.

12:07

Give it a look. And, oh, one more thing --

12:09

I do a podcast with my brother. [bleep] you!